I have been thinking about it all the afternoon (US morning) and I wondered something
The signing of Hossa may have a "gentleman agreement" of a longer term deal between Ken Holland and Marian Hossa that couldn´t be done because of next season RFAs and UFAs ( especially Zetterberg and Franzen) because they may have thought the same "cap scenario" that I did.
The "evolution" of the salary has been the following.
Year Cap Growth ( Respect the previous year)
05-06 39M$ ---
06-07 44M$ 12,8%
07-08 50,3M$ 14,3%
08-09 56,7M$ 12,7%
What would be a correct estimate of the Salary Cap of the 2009-2010 Season ?
If the cap growths about 12%, it will be about 63,5M$. a 6.8M$ extra space.
Now, let´s asume that Flip is locked with a long term deal.
So, as our beloved GM said that nobody will make more than Lidstrom, if Hank re-signs at the "Detroit Maximum" he would make 7.45 , a 4.8M$ raise ( It could be less, in our great organization you never know) the extra space will narrow from 6.8 to 2.
If Franzen has a great season (something really possible playing on a line with Flip and Hossa) this 2M$ won´t be enough to retain all of them as everybody in this board is worried. Hudler will also need to be re-signed and would be the sure man out.
If the cap raise is less than the 12%, all this worries could materialize into losing Hossa and Franzen or Hudler (or both).
But I seriously believe that the cap will grow more than expected.
- Correct me if I´m wrong, but the new HNIC deal kicks in the next season, this contract will push the league revenues higher. ( has anyone estimations about its impact in a future cap).
-The league is more popular than it was the last two seasons. The Finals had higher viewers than anyone could expect. This bigger exposure should push the revenues higher.
-Chicago, one of the biggest hockey markets in the U.S. has a really good on-ice product, his revenues should grow a lot.
-Economic experts don´t expect a important drop on the Canadian Dollar, at least on the next year.
And finally the question for all the experts on LGW, I´m only doing wishful thinking or the scenario of a cap around 68M$ ( around 20% increase) with the possibility of retaining everyone could be realistic ?
P.S. It´s 4:00 am and English is not my first language, keep that in mind if my explanation is far from good. At least I hope I can make myself understandable.