Wombat

You need not give me a lesson in research methods or statistics... but I'm glad you came at it that way as it forced me to actually crunch the numbers. I took Hudler's game stats from ESPN.com and separated the data into 5 classes based on TOI. To try to get as many games as possible into each class, I set it up as: Under 12 Minutes - 11 games 12-13 minutes - 15 games 13-14 minutes - 9 games 14-15 minutes - 13 games Over 15 minutes - 10 games I feel it is better to use discrete classes as otherwise your statistics are skewed as you include data points in multiple break downs (ie: comparing playing over 15 minutes to playing over 16 minutes, in which all data above 16 minutes is included in both classes). The results: Games playing under 12 minutes - 10 points, average 10.76 TOI, 11.84 Minutes per point Games playing 12-13 minutes - 13 points, average 12.62 TOI, 14.56 Minutes per point Games playing 13-14 minutes - 3 points, average 13.58 TOI, 40.73 Minutes per point Games playing 14-15 minutes - 15 points, average 14.38 TOI, 12.46 Minutes per point Games playing over 15 minutes - 8 points, average 16.51 TOI, 20.64 Minutes per point While we are limited somewhat because of the sample size in each class, what I take from this data is that Hudler is most efficient either playing under 12 minutes a game, or between 14-15 minutes. He takes longer to score a point when he plays over 15 minutes per game. If you look at Hudler's last 22 games (since Jan 1st), he is averaging about 13.9 minutes per game, which is reasonably close to the 14-15 minute classification. In using per game statistics, his 14-15 minute class is where he has his 2nd highest goals per game (only .005 less than his highest class), 2nd highest assists per game (only .03 less than the highest), highest points per game (over a point per game), best +/- per game, fewest PIM per game, and highest SOG per game. Strangely enough, he also has his 2nd lowest PPG per game and 3rd PPA per game in the 14-15 minutes class, which I interpret as meaning that he is getting even more "bang for the buck" in even strength play than in any of the other classes. I think this is an important issue since we therefore cannot "blame" his production on higher PP production... he's just playing excellently in even strength situation in those games. No one is trying to say that if you give Hudler 2 or 3 more minutes a game that his season totals will be less. In a small increment like that, there most probably are not going to be negative outcomes. What we HAVE been trying to say is that Hudler is most efficient with his ice time, in terms of minutes per point scored, when he has less time than more. There is NOT a linear relationship between TOI and minutes per point; therefore, you cannot extrapolate that with added time played he will produce at the same rate. If you are willing to predict that he will score at the same rate playing 18, 19, or 20 minutes, you must also be willing to predict that he will score at the same rate playing 30 or even 60 minutes. That is your line of best fit and is your predictive model. Instead, what you must do is find his peak; in this case, he has two peaks (less than 12 minutes, 14-15 minutes) and his production falls at every other place. Summary: - I do not "hate" Hudler. I've loved his play this year and I am completely happy with his role - I trust that Babcock probably knows that Hudler produces more when his ice time is limited to fewer minutes than Dats, Z, Hossa, et al. - Hudler also suffers in the TOI department because he does not play in 4x4 or PK situations. The other top forwards do. - "The statistics suggest" that Hudler peaks at production around as either under 12 minutes or 14-15 minutes, and more TOI above 15 minutes leads him to have less efficient point production. (By the way, this is what I love about statistics... separate conclusions can be taken from the same data set. There isn't a right answer. It's the same way with message boards. It's a debate and it's fun to have. This has been a fun debate and I hope we can continue it. Have a great day everyone!) - edit: misstated his PPA stat as being 2nd worst when it's actually 3rd, or right in middle of his production of all the classes.

I don't want to comment on where exactly Hudler's most efficient point is... I don't think we have the data right now to show that. And anyways, I'm pretty sure that Babcock does know and is playing him at that point. Regardless, where I and others disagree with you is the idea of a plateau of production. By your model, you are assuming that at a certain point, a player's production becomes constant. In this case, you are saying that after 17 minutes, every extra minute per game he gets will merit 4.4 extra points per season. It does not work that way. If it did, we could thusly also say that Hudler would get 110 points playing 25 mpg, 132 points playing 30 mpg, and 264 points playing 60 mpg. The relationship between minutes played and point production per minute is probably very close to being parabolic... rate increases as minutes increase until a point, and then the rate drops. The model you're describing has some sort of limit... rate increases as minutes increase and steadily approaches a constant number with no drop. You cannot extrapolate a constant increase in points with a constant increase with minutes; otherwise, you'd just play your best 5 players 60 minutes a game.

Kopecky plays because he can't be sent to GR without passing through waivers. The Red Wings like to horde as many players as they can, so they are keeping him up here and started Helm/Leino in GR. When the time comes (playoffs), those that most help the team will be on the ice.

Not to derail this into another goalie thread, but I think there might be some truth to this. I've been an Ozzie fan since he first came up from the minors, but I think he definitely does not play as well when he's the front runner. As the bona fide #1 guy, coming off a Cup run, he's struggling.

I agree and you had a great post... I just didn't want to quote something that long! PPM is an interesting statistic but it is not an end-all-be-all. The statistical revolution has gone through baseball, and it's working it's way through basketball. I haven't heard a lot of it for hockey yet besides TSN's player rankings, but I do see it coming. It's definitely about finding how to maximize team efficiency in the context of each individual player efficiency. I in general do not have complaints about Hudler's role on the team. As long as he is a 2nd or 3rd liner on ES shifts, I think that's all that matters. He's not going to get PK time or 4x4 time so that will keep him lower than the stronger two-way forwards in front of him.

I could not agree more. As others have said, it is all about being the most efficient; about getting the most out of every player. For some, that means more time on the ice and for others, it means less. There is a definite parabolic curve measuring minutes played to points per minute, and the key to is to find that sweet spot for each player that will maximize the outcomes for the team as a whole.

Yeah, he actually signed for less! In December I also thought this would be impossible but it happened. Very interesting old thread... funny that the trade proposed by the OP is completely jacked, yet he/she somehow almost precisely predicted what Z's cap hit would be when almost everyone was thinking it'd be 1-2 million more!

It'd be nice if the NHL stopped the East/West conference divide and instead spread the travel out for all teams by arranging conferences like the NFL and MLB (leagues) do. Then every team can have the chance to be "road weary" by leaving EST a few more times.

Lebda should have gotten 2 for interference earlier, and Clutterbuck should have gotten 2 for a charge. I guess it's a wash... but I just wish a Wing player would have stood up to Clutterbuck to show that you can't do that to this team. "The PP is our enforcer" doesn't hold water when the game isn't close and I'm worried that someone is going to get run hardcore late in a game when the outcome is not in doubt.

Mac can hopefully help during the end of the regular season and then some better players (Helm, etc) can play in the playoffs.

I think it's a shame that the Wings essentially lost Quincey because of the Chelios signing. Clearly, Quincey would not be putting up those numbers with the Red Wings, but he's a good player that would bring some extra toughness to the blueline that right now only Lilja provides. I would simply be satisfied with him being a plus player stay at home defensemen on the Wings. That said I'm happy he got an opportunity to prove himself in an ideal situation.

Both players do different things, but I'd rather have Franzen. I think Franzen's role on the team is more unique than Hudler's. The Wings don't have another player like Franzen that can be a neo-power forward in the NHL. I thought a big part of the Wing's success last year in the playoffs was that they had 3 strong net-front guys (Homer, Franzen, Cleary) that they could spread out onto 3 lines and tire out the other team's defense. Of them, Franzen is the best at also creating his own offense. I don't want to sound like I'm downgrading Hudler at all... he's defied all my expectations and has become a bona fide NHLer despite his stature. While I do find it ridiculous to compare Hudler at all to Jagr, Hudler has been playing well in his role on the team. Hudler may be more skilled but the team already has a lot of skill. The team doesn't have players like Franzen that combine size, puckhandling, finishing, checking, and defense. I wouldn't sign Franzen to a super long term deal... 4 years would be great, but maybe 5 max. And the free agency situation does matter... I'd rather have Franzen and the pick compensation for Hudler (maybe a 2nd, maybe a 1st & 3rd) than just Hudler.

I don't know... I actually like the jerseys. I think with a less-stripey sock, it might look good. It's good for an occasional vintage look but it shouldn't be an every day thing. The old turn of the century stripes, the ugly uniforms of the 70's... they work today as the once in a while vintage look but would be bad as a constant.

I completely agree. There are improvements needed to the whole cap situation but it's better to have it than to not have it like earlier. This only proves that the Wings are a great organization because they can win (and win consistently year in/out) without the "they spend more money than everyone" excuse.

There are some players like Hossa that have the skill to show up and be able to play Red Wings hockey from the start. Then there are guys like Lilja that need some time to adjust their game to the Wings system. It sure looks like he's gotten to the point of mixing his strengths (shot blocking, PK, stay at home D) with the Wings puck possession system. He's clearly a very important player for the Red Wings because he can provide what many other Wings do not. I think he's been really good this year.

The problem is that most of the players everyone is listing are players that the Wings can afford to replace but make relatively so little money that replacing them essentially will not increase cap space. Maltby/Kopecky/Lebda/Meech/Chelios all make under $1 million and are likely to be replaced by young call-ups from GR or veteran signings ala Drake last season and therefore will not save enough cap room to retain Hossa. It was an absolute steal to even get Hossa this year and I just cannot see that robbery occurring this coming off season as well.

Then we are basically on the same page. There are some tweaks needed unless some players snap back into past form (and I agree with you, just saying it will be all better by the time the playoffs starts is NOT the answer). I couldn't agree with you more. It is essentially the same team but for a few changes. While I wasn't posting here before recently, in talking with my friends I was worried about the Hossa for Drake "trade". Hossa is clearly the better player but Drake brought something to the team that no one else did. Hossa, while great, does what Datsyuk/Zetterberg/Franzen do... but no one has stepped up to take Drakes small, but important role.

This is essentially the same team that just won the Cup! There does not need to be a huge amount of change. Every year there should be some turnover to keep it fresh and to keep improving. If this is what you meant, then I do agree with you. There are definite points of improvement this team needs but I think they are in general small fixes.

I think the OP hit on the elephant in the room... call it xenophobia if you want, but in general people are more comfortable with guys that sound like them and have names like them. I do think there is something to a slight Euro bias. That said, it's not that Detroiters dislike Euros... they just want them to supplement the NAs on the team. In most sports, balance is the key and I fear Detroiters aren't tuning in as much because there is such a sameness for a lot of the players. For all intents and purposes, Flip/Sammy/Hudler/Kopecky are all the same guy. Besides that, I do also agree with the other posters about the lack of rivalries with the Wings. Part of the problem is that the Wings have been so good for so long, they haven't really been beaten by the opponents they play the most often. We like playing ANA because they beat us in the playoffs, and SJ has been beating us in the regular season, but the Wings have beaten everyone else fairly consistently. Dallas, Chicago, Nashville, Columbus, etc... they may see the Wings as rivals but I don't think we see any of them as true rivals yet. Without intriguing matchups, the regular season IS somewhat pointless when you know the Wings will get 100+ points and be a high seed.

I don't think this team needs a blowout. The team already has had some big losses so I don't see a blowout having any affect. It's a long season and there will be ups and downs. Right now they are down, but I'm confident they will be playing better soon enough. There are certain guys that are carrying their weight and others that simply need to bring more to the table. It happens and I don't agree that the Wings need to "Bench a star player and bring up two grand rapids kids to play 20 mins a night" The Wings stars for the most part are excelling... it's the bottom half of the roster that needs to pick up some play.

I like what Downey brings to the team on the ice and I want him to be dressed in a majority of the rest of regular season games. I don't think he adds as much to a playoff situation but his spark and physical defense is needed for the regular season. At this point I see Maltby and Kopecky as two guys that should rotate into the last forward spot, and Downey can take Leino's spot when he's sent back down to GR.

I would not like to see that NA vs World format return. I actually don't like the idea of teammates being forced to play each other in a meaningless exhibition. Personally I think every All Star game in every sport is not worth squat regardless of the format.

The problem is that the NHL does not calculate cap hits that way. The cap hit is the total contract value divided by the length of the contract. You can have varied values every year but that does not change the cap hit. I just think Hossa is gone. Hopefully he gets his Cup this year before leaving!

Yes, that is one of the great sports conspiracy theories. If true, Stern is a genius and it worked!

I see Franzen as the guy Holland targets next, but agree with some other posters that said they expect Franzen to test the UFA waters. I just don't see how Hossa stays... if he does great but right now for me he's like that free preview of HBO you get once in a while. Just enjoy it while it lasts and it won't last long! The Z contract has a fiscally sound cap hit and I expect Holland to do the same with the next few contracts. I do think a lot of UFAs will be in for a rude awakening on July 1st, so there is probably a good chance that a handful of solid, physical veterans (ala Drake last year) will be available for short term, cheap contracts. The money saved on Z's cap hit could go to Hudler. Personally, since he's an RFA, I would wait and see if he gets any other offers on the market. If it's an OK contract, match. If not, take the draft pick compensation or work out a different trade.