Wombat

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Everything posted by Wombat

  1. Wombat

    Bertuzzi = Lang?

    I'm glad that it looks like there is only one poster in this thread that is expecting a perfect 2-way player for $1.5 million. I would be ECSTATIC if for $1.5 million Holland just signed another Lang. Anyone who is expecting the 40-goal scoring proto-power forward that Bertuzzi was 7 years ago is kidding themselves. Age, injury, and the Moore incident has changed him. He's not here to crush people into the boards and shoot for the Richard Trophy... he's here to be a top 6, 20-25 goal scorer that uses his big frame to get to the net. The fact that he was playing with such speed and defensive tenacity the past two games to me is a very nice bonus. I hope he keeps his play up, he's doing well out there for his role.
  2. Wombat

    Ericsson OK, Franzen hurt

    I guess according to people in this thread, guys over 6 foot aren't allowed to get injured regardless of the severity (which we don't know yet).
  3. That's fair, you thought even before the season that you wouldn't be surprised if they missed the playoffs. But that gives you a lot of wiggle room, so you're "right" no matter what the results of the season are. Sack up and state for the LGW record if you think they will or will not make the playoffs.
  4. I agree with GS&T... if you're going to post something like this, man up and actually make a prediction. So you can't wiggle out by saying "I just said I wouldn't be surprised...", come out and say whether you think the Wings WILL or WILL NOT make the playoffs. Me: The Wings will be a playoff team. I would be absolutely shocked if they did not make the playoffs.
  5. Wombat

    Today's Lines "Expected Line" released

    My expectation is that while Abdelkader will play the center position, Draper will still take most faceoffs, and will otherwise come in situationally for defensive zone faceoffs (then get off the ice as they clear the zone).
  6. Wombat

    Holmstrom

    I just wanted to bold those couple of lines because I think they are very important. The Wings have the opportunity to rest some of the vets and make sure everyone is fresh going into the playoffs. Also, being relegated to the "4th" line does not make him a borderline AHL player. It means that's the best place for him in the context of a team trying to make 4 lines be as effective as possible. Rest up Homer... we NEED you in the playoffs!
  7. Wombat

    Lidstrom's Future

    I agree with Stev... we cannot just assume that the league will weather another year with the economy at this state. Just remember, employment often drags behind the upturn. While businesses may start making more money, they want to make sure it's "real" and not a bounce before expanding the workforce. In a gate driven league, this matters. I would not be surprised in the least in a $5 million drop in the cap.
  8. Wombat

    A season of questions

    Really the only questions I have is if the Wings are going to have enough juice to make it to another deep playoff run after 2 runs to the Stanley Cup Finals and a year that includes a trip to Sweden to start the season and an Olympic run that will add extra games/wear to the Wings most important (and older) players. I have no issues or complaints really with the makeup of the team. Ignoring what I stated above, this is still a 100+ point team and probably a top 4 team in the League. Barring significant injuries, I still like this team's chances.
  9. Wombat

    Lidstrom's Future

    I agree, only 1-year deals from here on out. If memory serves though, bonuses can be included either on entry level deals or 1-year contracts for vets over the age of 35. The Wings can give him incentive-based contracts (to some degree... it's limited by the NHL) that give the Wings more cap relief.
  10. Wombat

    Holmstrom

    This is actually what I was getting at for the most part. On the 4th line, his inability to skate/stickhandle/pass isn't as necessary as it is on a legit scoring line. I know he has had good chemistry with D and Z, but I think Cleary looked really good with them at times. Where he isn't as good as Holmstrom (screening/deflections) he makes up in nearly every other category. I guess I'd rather see a 3-person line on the 1st line than 2 and Homer limping to the net. However if Babcock likes Homer there, that's fine. I'm not trying to disparage Homer by any stretch because I think he has a very secure and useful role on the team. On the 4th line, we don't have to worry as much about him getting pinned in the defensive zone with the likes of Getzlaf/Crosby/Iginla/Nash/etc.
  11. Wombat

    A twisted outlook on this offseason

    While I didn't like the Williams signing, I do like what the Wings have done this off season. I think there are still some people that have to face facts and know that the Wings this season were not in any shape to make a play on a long term contract for any big-name player. This is a transition year contractually thanks to the cap basically staying the same. With the impending big cap drop next season, the Wings have put themselves in a great position to be able to have an affordable core and be able to free up some money/roster spots without needing to buy out contracts. I think the original poster is right that they guys they signed probably won't each give the Wings 82 games, but they'll probably give between 60 and 75 each, and it will allow other guys to pick up more playing time. Hopefully it means that everyone is fresher for a long playoff run this coming season!
  12. Wombat

    Holmstrom

    I don't understand the talk that if Homer isn't on the 1st line, then he can't fit anywhere else. He has been a 3rd/4th line player + PP specialist most of his career until recently. Even in 2002 he was on the 4th line with Robataille and Larionov and getting major PP time. Homer has been one of my favorite players in this era of the Red Wings. He definitely has a place on this team. That place is having less ES time but still rolling out with the top PP unit. I completely agree with the topic starter.
  13. Wombat

    Why I May Have It Worse Than Anyone Here

    As a teacher, you should be into lifetime learning. You've now learned that as nice as it is to trash talk and be right, it's as strong or stronger in the negative when you trash talk and are wrong.
  14. Wombat

    Chi is SOOO Screwed

    Certain things will probably lag behind the economic recovery. For example, I believe unemployment generally lags behind the actual recovery because businesses need to ensure the profits are "real" before committing to hiring more people. I would assume it's the same with any sort of expenditure, such as advertising and corporate purchasing of suites/tickets. Another thing to consider is how much are NHL clubs charging for tickets? It's harder to earn more profits from ticket sales when the prices are not increasing. I have no data on whether or not franchises are increasing ticket prices, but I think many are either freezing prices or dropping them. I'm very happy that the Wings did not commit to any long term deals this offseason because I fear the cap is going to take quite a hit for the season after next.
  15. Wombat

    Alex Tanguay

    Buying out Homer (or Maltby et. al. for that matter) absolutely should NOT happen. The Wings franchise is based on loyalty. Take pay cuts to stay and you get rewarded on the back end.
  16. Wombat

    What about Afinogenov?

    I live out in WNY and I've seen a lot of Sabres games. You heard of "Manny being Manny" in baseball? This guy is Max being Max. He's got killer speed. He has no ability to finish. But his worst attribute is hockey smarts. He just doesn't seem to get it, to play in a team concept. Watching Sabres games, you'll see him fly into the zone with the puck, then peel back and lose the puck. He does give effort for the most part though. Personally, I think he's the last thing this team needs. Sure, a lot of offense left, but it's not like those goals are gone in some black hole. Guys on this team will step up and play more minutes and make up some of that offense. What the team needs is some more solid, physical, gritty play out of the 3rd and 4th lines.
  17. Wombat

    Holland confirms that Hudler will play in KHL

    How do you figure that the management messed this up? The Wings have under $2 million in cap room with at least 2 forwards needed. A lot of Wings fans have to face the reality of the salary cap and that the Wings simply are up against it and cannot afford the contracts that these guys are getting. Not everyone can or should take huge discounts just to stay with the Wings.
  18. Wombat

    Barker signs a 3-year deal with Hawks

    Excellent, and thank you for correcting me! That makes the decision still quite interesting.
  19. Wombat

    Hudler files for arbitration

    Probie, thanks for the research. If it is true that now he cannot be traded, then this is a bad situation for the Wings. I was really hoping they could get some draft picks for him because I just don't see how he's going to fit into the Cap situation unless they make a handshake and wink deal for 1 year cheap with the agreement to sign for more money the following season when some contracts expire.
  20. Wombat

    Barker signs a 3-year deal with Hawks

    I did forget about the possibility of a No Movement Clause and I have no idea if he has one or not. I think the 2/3 of the hit is in regards to buyouts... if he is claimed on re-entry waivers, the Hawks and the claiming team each take 1/2 of the cap hit, but I think the claiming team is responsible for paying all the salary (ie: they pay $7 mill a year and it counts as $3.5 capwise, while Chicago pays zero but has a $3.5 mil cap penalty). Again, cap experts please correct me if I'm wrong with my understanding. Let's assume Chicago waives Campbell... which is a better situation for them: 1. Pay him over $7 million a year for another 5ish years to play in the AHL, but have 0 cap hit responsibility. 2. Hope someone gets him on re-entry, which means the Hawks pay him no money, but they lose $3.5 million in cap space for the next 5ish years during the prime of most of their team. If I was a Hawks fan, I'd start a donation drive to pay Campbell's AHL salary and have the extra cap space.
  21. Wombat

    Barker signs a 3-year deal with Hawks

    Someone can correct me if I'm wrong, but can't the Hawks just waive Campbell and put him in the AHL and his cap hit goes away? Of course, they have to be willing to pay someone $7 million a year to play in the AHL, but I think the rules for guys that signed under the age of 35 allow that. I think that's what they did with Khabibulin early this past season.
  22. Wombat

    Chicago Screws Up, merged

    this year. if they were not tendered QO's before July 1st, they should be UFA's right now.
  23. Wombat

    Detroit isn't that great at Drafting

    There are good points on this blog, but a bunch more poor points. - He is correct that the Wings have not had very good marks drafting in the 1st round in the past 15ish years. Ignoring the past 3-4 drafts (who knows how those players will develop), the Wings really only produced two good ones... Fischer and Kronwall. Fischer's very promising career was cut short tragically, but Kronwall is good. - His whole rant about Detroit not having a lot of first round picks is foolhardy at best. It is the price the team pays to stay competitive and make the Cup attainable on a yearly basis. Yes, it is better to have 1st rounders than not, but if those 1st rounders go to get guys that win the Cup in these recent years, it's a good trade. - He points out the '98 and '99 drafts and calls the Wings "Really really lucky". Perhaps, but he tries making the point that so many of the players drafted before and after Z and D completely bust, so the Wings must be lucky. Well, on that list, 3 guys hit his 200 NHL games played mark out of 17 picks. that is a 17.6% success rate at that level, which almost doubles the NHL going rate of 9.8% of draftees getting 200 NHL games. He brings up these drafts as showing the Wings busts, but it in fact shows the Wings beating the NHL average! The author looked at '96-'06, which honestly does not show all the great drafts by the Wings that built their championship teams. But let's look at '96 - '06 draftees for the Wings anyways. Here is the breakdown by round according to the author's 200 GP evaluation (any deviations from this will be noted). League averages from his blog: 1st round: 2/3 (66.6%) - league avg = 39.4% 2nd round: 3/13 (23.1%) - league avg = 10.6% * note: my numbers count Kopecky (183 games) and Tomas Fleischmann (191 games), as they should both easily cross the threshold this coming season. 3rd round: 2/6 (33.3%) - league avg = 9.8% 4th round: 0/14 (0%) - league avg = 5.8% * note: if Kyle Quincey can hit the 200 mark over the next couple years, then they'd be over the league avg at 7.1%. But he's not close yet, so it still counts as a 0. 5th round: 0/11 (0%) - league avg = 2.8%. * note: Helm is the hope for the Wings, but he's so far off still from 200 games that this is another goose-egg. 6th round: 1/15 (6.7%) - league avg = 6.2% 7th round: 1/11 (9.1%) - league avg = 4.4% 8th round: 0/10 (0%) - league avg = 5.2% 9th round: 0/9 (0%) - league avg = 4.1% * note: Detroit's hope here is Ericsson. He looks like the real deal but is still quite a way from 200 games. Overall, 9.8% of players drafted between '96 and '06 play 200 games in the NHL. In that time, the Wings succeeded at a rate of 9.8% as well (counting Kopecky and Fleischmann. Without, they are 7.6%). They are also essentially even with the NHL rate for picks in rounds 3 and later (Wings are at 5.3%). That makes them look positively average by comparison. But the '96 cutoff doesn't show all of Detroit's drafting acumen. '94 netted two 800+ gamers with Cups (Dandenault and Holmstrom). '93 got a 500+ gamer in Eriksson. '92 produced two guys over 600+ games (McCarty and Dan McGillis). In '91, the Wings first 4 picks all played over 500 games (Lapointe, Pushor, Osgood, Knuble). '90 produced 3 guys over 700, with one over 1000 games (Primeau, Kozlov, Jason York). And the '89 draft looks downright scary... 6 players played over 400 games, and 4 of them broke the 1000 game mark (Mike Sillinger, Bob Boughner, Lidstrom, Fedorov, Drake, and Konstantinov). '89 - '95 netted 18/78 draftees getting over the 200 game threshold, good for a 23% clip. I don't know what the overall NHL average was, but I doubt it would be much different from the '96-'06 numbers the blogger has... and the Wings were over double that! To summerize this too long post... I think to adequately judge the Red Wings drafting acumen, you have to take a bigger look at which drafts built the championship teams. there was a bit of a drafting lull in the mid to late 90's to some extent, but what ties the generations (so to speak) together is that the Wings do find GREAT players at late points in the draft.
  24. Wombat

    Martin Havlat Twitter/ Sun-Times Article

    I just can't see how Campbell's contract can be tradeable for any team to receive unless they get other big paybacks with it (like Campbell salary dump + 2nd round pick for a 5th rounder for example). But I think there is a really easy solution to this for the Hawks, if I understand the CBA correctly. I think players signed under the age of 35 do not count against the cap if they are sent down to the minors. So when push comes to shove, Chicago can "hide" Campbell down in the AHL and free up over $7 mil a year. With the hockey renaissance there, and 20,000 fans filling the stadium 41 times a season + playoffs, they probably have enough money to pay Campbell to play in the AHL while keeping all their big guns.
  25. Wombat

    Don't expect the Wings to make move today

    I actually think it's quite fair to look at the team today and say they are in great shape. July 1st does not build Cup winners. There are ways to get better without adding All Stars. Ericsson will be up all year and be better. Helm will be up all year and make the team faster/grittier. Flip will hopefully improve. Leino can try to prove himself. Cleary can have a better season (in the style of his playoffs). I think most Wings seem to be either on the upward arc of their careers, or are at a good plateau (Dats probably won't get much better or worse for a couple seasons). Only a handful look to be on the decline, most notably Lidstrom, who might go from best in the league to simply a solid #1 defenseman. This team is still good. There are a couple holes to fill but I'd bet there are about 27 other fan bases in the NHL that envy our position.