Buppy

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Everything posted by Buppy

  1. Buppy

    2019 Draft

    Zegras, Cozens, Caufiled, Dach. One of them will probably go top-5 (also assuming Turcotte and Byram will too). I'd give the edge to Zegras, because I think we really need a playmaker. A guy who can turn "three forwards" into "one line". That's also why I include Dach in my top tier; I think his skills would mesh well with Ras, Zadina, and Mantha. Wouldn't like him if Zegras was available though. At 35, I'm betting there will be at least a few guys that were mostly expected to go in the first round: Brink, Tomasino, Heinola, maybe even Kaliyev. Also like Matt Robertson and Lassi Thompson. Also like Sogaard with one of the 54/60/66 picks, and maybe take a chance on Brett Leason if he's still there. And finally: when do we acknowledge that it's the Rangers picking 2nd, and put Hoglander, Seider, and Lavoie in the discussion?
  2. Not worried about becoming the Oilers if we're a bottom 5 team, but you would be if we made the playoffs. I know you didn't bring up 2021. Obviously that would be silly since we haven't even not made our 2020 pick yet. I don't believe Yzerman will base his decisions on the lottery. That's why I'm not arguing with him. But your entire argument against trying to add any UFAs is that you don't want to hurt our lottery chances.
  3. I said that to emphasize that nothing other than one draft pick would change, and you keep bringing up everyone else on the team/in the system while trying to argue that the future of our franchise depends on getting a top-5 pick next year. Of course we'd be "better off" with a top-5 or 3 pick, but the problem is that will always be true. If we win the lottery in 2020 we'd be better off, no doubt. Then at that point you start thinking about how you'd be even better off with another lottery win in 2021. And if we don't win the lottery (which is far more likely) that 2021 lottery will start to look more like a "need", and before you know it you're thinking AA, Mantha, and Bert are getting older and you're wondering what kind of picks we could get for them. The closeness of the standings is exactly why we shouldn't be pinning all our hopes on a lottery win. Even being just a little better: AA and Mantha a little more consistent, Cholo and Hronek mature a little more, or another prospect or two steps up...things that aren't too unlikely, and should maybe even be expected...and all of a sudden we're picking 10th. Is Dylan Holloway or Cole Perfetti or whoever going to be any more of a difference maker than Connor Zary or Theo Rochette or whoever? Decisions shouldn't be based on unrealistic dreams of winning the lottery.
  4. Buppy

    News From Around the NHL

  5. Buppy

    News From Around the NHL

    Turcotte going #3 confirmed.
  6. You're still not grasping the core concept here. In regards to our future, the only difference between making the playoffs this year or not is our 2020 draft position, and the only pick where that difference is even likely to be noticeable is with the first rounder. Historically there is very little difference between an early 2nd and a mid-2nd, and no significant differences in later picks. It doesn't matter what you think of our prospects or players, because they are not going to change. They aren't going to all suck if we draft 19th or 13th, but magically transform into the great core of a perennial contender if we draft 3rd. You're talking about 1 pick, whether you realize it or not. And that absolutely is not going to be the difference between another long streak and turning into the Oilers. It's ridiculous to think so. We are not likely to win the lottery, even if we're terrible next year. (And if we are that bad, we might not have any hope even we do win it.) I think we will be better than last year even if we don't add anyone. If we don't try to fix our weaknesses, that is how we'll end up mired in mediocrity. Or worse, we'll start chasing lottery wins, trade away pieces we already have, develop a culture of losing, and never get any better. I would rather pick 17th because we tried hard, started to learn how to win, added a key UFA or two, and maybe made a trade to shore up a weakness, than pick 8th because we didn't want to win too much and hurt our lottery chances, then because we didn't win, repeat the same process the next season. Regardless of whether we add any UFAs this year, our goal should be to win as many games as we can, not to get the best lottery odds.
  7. He didn't say Green was a 50 point player, he said he scored at a 50 point pace this year. Big difference. Going by pace, Karlsson would be a 68 point player for his career. In actual numbers though Karlsson scores about twice as much as Green. So yeah, he deserves double or more what Green does. And if Green, who had much more injury trouble at that age (missed at least 7 games, and 21.5 on average every year from 08-09 to 13-14), is any indication, Karlsson should hold up pretty well for at least the next 5 seasons, and mostly likely fine for the full 7.
  8. Green's only even hit 40 once in the last 9 years, and only scored at a 50 point pace twice, and not played more than 75 games since 2008. Missed 188 games in the last 9 years. Calling him a 50 point player is a whole bucketful of stupid. Calling Karlsson a 55 point player is at least a few large glasses too. I don't even like Karlsson, and I would much rather have him at 7x$11M than another three years paying $5M to be infected by Green.
  9. But he didn't miss 11 games last year. He missed 5, and that only because the broken foot he suffered the previous year kept him from training properly in the offseason, so he wasn't quite in game shape. The other 6 games he missed that year were for personal reasons due to the death of his son and all the off-ice nonsense in Ottawa. Three unrelated injuries over 7 seasons: Cut by a skate, broken foot blocking a shot, and the groin this year. No more reason to think his health/durability is a concern than there is to think Mantha will keep breaking his hand every other season. If you want to say he has complimentary piece impact and will get core piece money, I won't argue. But the injuries aren't a big deal. Or even a regular sized deal. But all that other stuff is the same regardless of what happens next season. We already have the picks this year. We already have the extra 2nd/3rd next year. The only difference is whether the 2020 1st is a lottery pick or not, and whatever small difference there might be between an early-2nd and a middle-2nd. That is not the difference between decades of being a contender and just another bubble team. We haven't even gotten to the draft this year, and you're already looking at next year's first as the key to our future. So what happens if we're bad next year, but still don't win the lottery? Do you think the 6th pick in 2020 is going to be a franchise defining player? What if we're a bubble team and end up picking 12th? Trade players away so hopefully we'll be bad enough to win the 2021 lottery? At some point in a rebuild you have to put some faith into what has already been built, or otherwise you might as well trade everyone and start from scratch. But trying to win games and make the playoffs doesn't mean the rebuild is done. You never stop adding. If you try to wait until you have everything before you try to climb out of the basement, you'll stay in the basement forever. If we don't land any good UFAs this year, or even if Yzerman doesn't think any are worth going after, it won't be a big deal. But I hope he doesn't have the mindset that we need to continue to suck.
  10. Buppy

    2019 Draft

    1. You're using Boqvist wrong. My point in bringing him up, and what his play demonstrates is almost exactly the opposite of what you're trying to say. Based on his production (or lack thereof) in the SHL/Allsvenskan you would have concluded that he had less offensive potential than the other top D prospects. But then he came to the OHL and scored just as well as the other top guys (while being almost a full year younger). What his track record shows is that European Pro leagues are not the same as NA Jr leagues, so we shouldn't expect similar production. Also, last year was considered very deep for defense, and he still went top-10. Kind of shoots a hole in your theory that Broberg is just being overrated because it's a weak year. 3. That's not what people mean when they say that. It just means that those players look to have similar potential. Of course not all will develop the same. Also it's laughable to think you can already draw any conclusions about last year's draft.
  11. That's some very inconsistent logic. You think we're going to pick someone in 2020 who will make us dominant and a playoff team for 20-30 years (longer than he will even be on the roster), yet the same team just with a later 2020 pick can only toy with the playoffs. It doesn't make any sense. It doesn't matter how good or bad you think our current team and prospects are/will be. One player, no matter how good, is not going to be the difference between dominating and mediocre. Even if by some miracle we did end up winning the lottery .vs picking 20th, it wouldn't, and again the odds of 1st OA, or even top-3 are very slim.
  12. You're kind of missing the point. What we have is what we have. Our first pick in 2020 is only going to be one piece, and it is extremely unlikely that he will be someone so good as to dramatically change our fortunes. Even without adding any UFAs I'd say we're much more likely to pick later than 6th than in the top 3, and even if we did get a top 3, it's more likely that player would be another Larkin than another McDavid. We've been patient. (Some of us at least.) Years of slow decline and then three lottery years. I don't want to be "patient" if that means deliberately keeping the team s***ty enough for however long it takes to actually win a lottery. Holland left us with a bunch of good young players and prospects, and in fantastic position cap-wise. It's time to start moving back up the ranks. Not saying we need to win the Cup, or make a deep run, or even make the playoffs. Just that the playoffs should be a reasonable goal to shoot for. We have room and we have cap space. If there's players we can get that fill our holes, and don't cost anything but that, we should try to get them. The future has already started. No more waiting.
  13. Not to advocate for Karlsson, but this injury thing is being vastly overstated. In 10 years he's had 3 significant injuries: Groin this year, broken foot/ankle at the end of 16/17 (recovery from surgery caused him to miss first 5 games of 17-18, but he did not actually have any injuries that year), and a cut achilles in 2013. 324 consecutive games played between the achilles and the broken foot. It's not like he has chronic, recurring injuries. Trouba has 3 significant injuries in 6 seasons.
  14. Buppy

    2019 Draft

    So in other words, you're just wasting everyone's time with a pointless debate, like none of us have other websites to divide our time-wasting amongst. Now I'll probably never get to be shocked by #6 from the "Top 20 Celebrities You Didn't Know Had a Twin". Noberg 2019
  15. Buppy

    2019 Draft

    To be fair, Broberg didn't play against his peers. Allsvenskan is a men's pro league, and he was one of only 12 under-18s to play, the only one to play more than 13 games, played more games than the other 11 combined, and did it for one of the best teams in the league. I'm sure the stats of the top NA prospects would be considerably worse if they played in the AHL, or even just the worst half of it. And while it is a "2nd-tier" league, that might be a bit misleading. Sweden has relegation, and only 14 teams in the SHL. It's not like a minor league and he wasn't good enough to be called up to the top team. He played at the highest level of his organization. You need to show how Broberg will be better than Zegras/Cozens, not just that he'll maybe be able to score 30-40 points.
  16. Impatient maybe, but we're about to make our 3rd top-10 pick. Our current best young players were all drafted while we were still a playoff team. Even without making any moves we could end up picking in the 10-20 range, if a couple more kids step up. If what we have already; Larkin, Mantha, AA, Bert, Ras, Zadina, Veleno, Hronek, Cholowski, McIssaac, whatever fringe prospects you want to include, the 6th OA, 4 more picks from 35-66, + whoever I'm forgetting; isn't enough then I don't think picking 5th instead of 19th in 2020 is going to fix anything.
  17. I don't get why everyone thinks we should be awful again next year. I'm sick of it personally, I want to get back in the playoffs. We have some good young players, and promising prospects who could potentially be impact players as early as next year. Add a couple UFAs to shore up some weaknesses and I think we could be competitive. Not a huge Karlsson fan; despite his individual ability he doesn't seem to have that much impact on his teams. Gardiner or Myers could maybe be decent on the right contract, but a trade would be a better way to add a defenseman. Brodie would be good if he's actually available. Gost moving seems more likely now with Philly getting Niskanen. Trouba obviously. At forward I'd love to add Panarin. Probably not really worth what he's likely to get, but I think we're in a good enough spot that overpaying him wouldn't hurt us. I don't know if we could get him or not, but I'd sure try. Several other forwards who could at least add to our depth, and make for a better situation for any prospects we bring up. Let TB solve their Callahan problem themselves. He's worse than Abdelkader. I'd be willing to "help" Toronto with Marleau for the right price, though, since he's still a decent depth scorer. We only have 8 proven NHL forwards right now, and 4 of them are Neilsen, Helm, Abby, and Glendening. More than enough room to add one or two without taking anything from our top prospects. And that's without trading anyone. If we think we need a high 2020 pick to turn us around, we should just give up on this rebuild and stop wasting time. Trade Mantha, AA, Bert, and whatever else for as many picks as we can get.
  18. Buppy

    2019 Draft

    Yeah, could look at Boqvist last year as a comparable situation. Hardly produced at all at the SHL/Allsvensken level, but was a point/game at the JR level. Comes to NA, and scores a point/game in the OHL. Not hard to imagine that Broberg might have more offense than he's shown. I'd be a little more concerned by some saying he occasionally tries to do too much/make plays he doesn't have the skill for, resulting in bad decisions/turnovers. Smith jokes aside though, I'd consider him if we were to trade down to say 9 or 11. Wouldn't be my top choice, but close enough to be OK with it. But at 6 with at least one of Turcotte, Byram, Zegras, or Cozens guaranteed to be there...
  19. Buppy

    GAME 7 STANLEY CUP FINALS (GET IN HERE)

    Last place at New Year, win Stanley Cup. That's as "around" as things can "turn". Thanks for ruining turn-arounds for everyone else, Blues. Also, I didn't get to say "Blost", so now I hate them. Bwon just doesn't work.
  20. Buppy

    2019 Draft

    Plus questions about his decision making ability, called a "two-way defenseman" despite limited offensive production, would be a reach to draft him at our position... He screams Brendan Smith
  21. Buppy

    History of Ice Hockey

    Certainly a very early depiction, however, there have been similar stick-and-ball, field hockey style games dating back to BC times. I'm sure there have been precursor versions on ice for near that long.
  22. Buppy

    2019 Draft

    He'd been rising lately. Still a fair chance of going top 10, and I'd be shocked if he falls out of the top 20. I'd still give him serious consideration at 6 if Turcotte, Zegras, and Byram are gone.
  23. Buppy

    2019 Draft

    Top 31 - Summary of 13 of the latest prospect rankings. From http://www.mynhldraft.com/2019-nhl-draft/2019-nhl-draft-rankings/ (left out the NHLCS split lists for obvious reasons, and the Draft Analyst list from April on accident) Top31s Top10s High Low Avg 1 Jack Hughes 13 13 1 1 1.0 2 Kaapo Kakko 13 13 2 2 2.0 3 Bowen Byram 13 13 3 10 4.2 4 Alex Turcotte 13 13 3 10 4.5 5 Trevor Zegras 13 12 5 12 7.2 6 Kirby Dach 13 11 3 12 7.5 7 Dylan Cozens 13 10 4 14 8.1 8 Vasili Podkolzin 13 9 4 18 8.6 9 Peyton Krebs 13 9 6 13 9.0 10 Matthew Boldy 13 9 5 15 9.1 11 Cole Caufield 13 7 4 13 9.2 12 Philip Broberg 13 5 7 21 13.5 13 Alex Newhook 13 1 9 19 14.2 14 Cam York 13 1 9 22 15.1 15 Victor Soderstrom 13 2 8 28 16.2 16 Thomas Harley 13 0 11 29 19.1 17 Raphael Lavoie 13 0 14 31 20.2 18 Ryan Suzuki 13 0 14 29 20.8 19 Moritz Seider 12 2 9 OFF 17.8 20 Arthur Kaliyev 12 0 12 OFF 18.3 21 Bobby Brink 10 0 13 OFF 20.0 22 Ville Heinola 9 0 14 OFF 20.0 23 Philip Tomasino 9 0 17 OFF 20.9 24 Nils Hoglander 9 0 18 OFF 24.3 25 Samuel Poulin 9 0 23 OFF 26.0 26 Connor McMichael 8 0 22 OFF 26.9 27 Spencer Knight 7 0 15 OFF 21.4 28 Jakob Pelletier 7 0 14 OFF 24.0 29 Nicholas Robertson 7 0 18 OFF 26.6 30 Matthew Robertson 7 0 19 OFF 26.7 31 Tobias Bjornfot 6 0 19 OFF 26.0
  24. Buppy

    2018 Prospects Watch

    Unfortunately, the recovery timeframe is 5-6 months, which does push into next year. He was most likely going back to JR anyway though, so it doesn't really matter, assuming he wasn't making it worse by playing.
  25. Buppy

    2019 Draft

    Turcotte, Zegras, Cozens, Dach, Krebs, Podkolzin, Boldy, Caufield, Byram, + most people probably have at least a couple others they'd put in front of some of those kids. Going to be a good prospect available at 11. I'd do it, assuming resigning Konecny wouldn't be a problem.