kipwinger

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Everything posted by kipwinger

  1. kipwinger

    2020 Draft Thread

    Again, you have to really trust in your scouting. Like, taking a 20th ranked defenseman at 6th overall type of trust. Again, nobody's saying that there's no risk. I'm saying the risk is minimal. So much so that the worst case scenario (a Strome or Drouin) is still a highly productive NHL player. Strome has 30 points in 40 games and is 22 years old. Drouin had 15 in 19 before getting hurt and he's 24. If that's the worst possible outcome, and if you look back at past drafts it basically is, then sign me up every single day. Again, nobody is doubting who the better players are in these scenarios. It's about how to build the better team.
  2. kipwinger

    2020 Draft Thread

    Look, if you can get more then get more. But I don't think the gap between Lafreniere and the other two (and I'd include Rossi here too) will be big enough (if at all) to make the trade lopsided. Again, when you're talking about top five picks there's almost no risk anymore. So you're getting a star player in the making at 2 or 3, a stud goalie with a pedigree (top goalie in NCAA) who's already torn up the AHL, and a top defense prospect who (if Yzerman is to be believed) will definitely come over because all the top Russians do.
  3. kipwinger

    2020 Draft Thread

    Go back and look at how Murray acted w/respect to McDavid/Eichel. I'm not suggesting EVERY GM could be fleeced, just some. And he was clearly not so hot on Eichel compared to McDavid. I've already addressed Byfield elsewhere. The kids' like two weeks too old or he'd be getting drafted next year. He's like 11 months younger than Lafreniere. Clearly a mitigating factor. Likewise I've also addressed the quality of the DEL, which I admitted I was wrong about. I'm fine with that, just means that Stutzle eating that league alive at 17 years old likely means he's not a very risky pick at 2 or 3. Not necessarily Montreal, though they'd fit the bill this year. I'm talking about it on a bigger scale. I wouldn't just do it this year, I'd do it almost every year there was a perceived gap between the 1 and 2 picks that could be exploited. But in the case of Montreal, if I had the 1st and assuming they had the 2nd or 3rd, my ask is Cayden Primeau, their 1st this year (and draft Byfield/Stutzle), and prospect Alexander Romanov.
  4. kipwinger

    Mantha might be done for the year - what now

    Mantha's the "best player" because he scored pretty well for a few DAYS of the season lol. Nevermind that for the next 11 games he was outscored by Darren Helm. Nevermind that he plays an easier position than Larkin. Nevermind that he's never tasked with shutting down top opposition players. Nevermind that his career ppg average is lower than Larkin's. Just pay attention to that first few days of the season and you'll see he's the "best player" on the team.
  5. kipwinger

    2020 Draft Thread

    Depends on what else you got in the trade. But here's the thing... Remember when Buffalo "lost" the lottery and their GM, Tim Murray, apologized to his fans because (boo hoo) they had to draft Eichel as a consolation prize? The same Tim Murray that openly gushed about McDavid all year? The same Tim Murray that openly tanked, and admitted it, for "McJesus"? You're telling me that guy couldn't have been fleeced for the top pick? Of course he could. And there was about as much chance of Jack Eichel turning into another Nino Neidereitter as there was of McDavid doing the same. With the top of the draft guys there's very little risk anymore. Not that it'll never happen, but but it's rare enough to make the risk negligible. Same goes for Matthews and Laine. EVERYONE knew Laine would be awesome, not any riskier of a pick than Matthews himself. Same with Hughes and Kakko. Or Dahlin and Svechnikov.
  6. kipwinger

    2020 Draft Thread

    Again, nobody is saying trade the 1st for the 15th or whatever Svech was. I'm talking about trading Lafreniere for Byfield/Stutzle+++, or trading McDavid for Eichel+++, or Lindros for Forsberg+++, or Yzerman+++, or Amonte, Kovalev, and Richter+++. If I'm a GM and have the first pick, and the general consensus is that the presumed 1st overall guys is "generational" or close to it, then I'm fleecing someone in the top five for that pick. And if they don't give me the package I'm looking for, oh well, I just draft Lafreniere, or McDavid, or Lindros, or whomever.
  7. kipwinger

    2020 Draft Thread

    If I were making a dumb argument it would ignore any information that seems to contradict what I was saying too. Dynamite thinking. And you still haven't gotten the point yet, likely because you're too blinded by internet discourse to think about this for a second. It's not "likely" that someone will be as good or better than Lafreniere, it's probable based on the results of the last 20 years of drafts. And it's not like you have to mine the 4th, 5th, and 6th rounds with a healthy dose of luck to find that person. They're likely going to be taken within 4 or 5 picks of Lafreniere himself. Nobody is talking about trading back for the 25th pick and hoping for a Pastrnak. You're talking about trading a McKinnon and taking a Barkov or Seth Jones (plus a bunch of other assets), both of whom were both obviously going to be NHL stars at the time they were drafted.
  8. kipwinger

    2020 Draft Thread

    They would if he's as good as you and everybody else says he is. And if he's not that good, and the difference between him and everyone else is much smaller, then maybe you should reconsider all the things that made you think he was worlds apart to begin with. Also, it's not like there isn't a precedent for this. Remember when Eric Lindos was the next big thing, and he was traded for a package that was WAY more valuable than he was? And then the not-Lindros team went on to be MUCH better than the Lindos team despite him being the best player moved in that deal? I do. The only difference is that the Lindos trade was forced onto Quebec, while in this case you'd be making the deal proactively. Fun Fact: The Red Wings were reportedly willing to trade Steve Yzerman, Steve Chiasson, and draft picks for Lindos. The Rangers had reportedly agreed to trade (among other pieces) Tony Amonte, Alexie Kovalev, either John Vanbiesbrouck or Mike Richter, and multiple 1st round picks for Lindos. Conclusion: Teams are willing to do really stupid s*** because their idiot executives are just as susceptible to hype as you are. Sure you've got to make good on your picks after you acquire them, but that's what you pay scouts for. If you have no confidence that you can find a really good player with a 6th overall pick then you've got bigger problems than what we're talking about here.
  9. kipwinger

    Babs got fired

    Or they have young superstars locked up for years making less money than they'd eventually get paid as UFA's, who haven't learned to play a mature game YET, and who quit on a coach because he was a manipulative egomaniac, not because he was a hardass. Tons of hardass coaches are beloved around the league: Gallant, Laviolette, and Quenneville just to name a few. I think players tend to balk at coaches who are openly antagonistic toward their players. Babs passed into the Mike Keenan, Viktor Tikhonov, realm. There's a difference between demanding and dictatorial. I think everyone wants to point the finger at Matthews, Marner, and Nylander because they're all smug little assh*les, and I totally get that. But they aren't the problem. Do they play perfect games yet, absolutely not. Are they the drivers for most of Toronto's success? Absolutely. Every fan of every team goes on endlessly about the need for elite talent, only in Toronto's case is having so much elite talent considered a flaw. I tend to agree that they should probably move a Johnsson or Kapanen or Timashov for some more versatile role players. But I look at their roster and see only two guys are over the age of thirty, more than half of their roster is under the age of 26, and almost none of them have any experience going on long playoff runs. I generally conclude that the team they have is fine (minus a few tweeks) but they to mature, not overhual a quality roster. It took the Caps 14 years to develop a "sell your soul to win" attitude. I think TO's stars will probably get there too, but it's going to take some internal growth.
  10. kipwinger

    Trade deadline bait available this year?

    Maybe I'm way off base here, but I don't think his contract is going to be an issue this year. Ferris is definitely known for holding out, but usually with up-and-coming RFAs who look like they're about to break out. He did it with AA, he did it with Josh Andersson, in the hopes of getting them paid for their potential. But that all falls apart when you've played in the NHL three years, you're currently having a terrible season, and your career is mired in inconsistency. I think if that if he's not traded first, AA will sign for something like 3 years at 4.5-5. Which is a great contract for Detroit too because it's not so much that it will kill you if he doesn't live up to it, and if he does live up to it A) you got a steal, and B) he's eminently tradable. I also doesn't think AA is THAT big of an ******* w/respect to contracts. He held out for a bit two contracts ago, but then prior to last season he signed his current deal without any fuss. Holdouts happen. Anybody remember Datsyuk doing the same thing? I do. At least AA isn't doing like Puljujarvi and missing an entire year. That's a different problem.
  11. kipwinger

    Trade deadline bait available this year?

    Much as it pains me to say, I agree with Nyq here. If given the choice between AA and Puljujarvi I take AA every day, He's actually been good in the NHL before. But I totally agree with your logic, if you're giving AA away you're probably taking back a similarly flawed player (unless you're adding picks to the package). I'd probably just target a similarly flawed, yet specifically productive, defenseman. Elsewhere I've mentioned DeAngelo and Dumba as guys that might make sense. I don't even think you're totally off base with Edmonton, I just think I'd want something other than Puljujarvi back considering that he, like the Gringe, has too little heart. To be fair, Puljujarvi is currently holding out on a level that AA never even dreamed of. So if the propensity to be a pain in the ass during contract negotiations is a black mark on a player, Puljujarvi is probably the last guy we'd want to take on. More importantly though, I just don't really see us needing any wingers when you consider we've got Mantha, Bert, Zadina, Fabbri, Veleno/Ras, Berggren, Mastrosimone, Hirose, Smith, etc. in the pipeline. I think they'll probably target a defenseman or goalie with AA.
  12. kipwinger

    Mantha might be done for the year - what now

    Anthony needs to learn the same lesson Brendan Shanahan (also no stranger to fighting, getting hurt, and ruining his seasons) learned oh so many years ago. He wasn't drafted to fight, or get in scrums, or be an enforcer, or whatever. He was drafted to score. And you can't score in the Press Box. Unless Karen Newman happens to be in attendance...obviously.
  13. kipwinger

    Trade deadline bait available this year?

    How about staying healthy for more than 10 secs. there Trev. Can't wait to see what conditional 5th rounder this dork lands us at the end of February.
  14. kipwinger

    Mantha might be done for the year - what now

    Unless Muzzin attacked Mantha on the bench, or while he was skating away, I think it probably did have something to do with it. Mantha jumped into a scrum to "defend" a teammate after a legal hit and got hurt. Too bad, so sad. Stop pretending to be a tough guy and get to the bench Samantha.
  15. kipwinger

    Babs got fired

    I don't think they have any more scorers than we did with Dats, Z, Hossa, and Franzen. You could probably say their depth players are more offensively minded than Detroit had, and I'd agree that moving Kadri was a bit short sighted, but I just don't see the problem being that too many of their scoring guys are too good at scoring. I think the problem is more likely that they have a team full of kids, none of whom have been around long enough to have learned what they need to do to win at the NHL level. Combined with the fact that they've got a coach who needs a season or so to learn what works and does not work at this level. Probably adding some quality vets over the next year or two would help, kinda like what Carolina has tried to do with Justin Williams. But basically the reason why the Leafs have underachieved IMO were A) Their team is super young, and B) None of them wanted to play for Babcock. They sorta remind me of the Wings in 2005, 06, 07. Too soft, too skilled, too little, too this too that. Nah man, they just have to mature a little bit.
  16. I can't be the only one who feels like we dodged a MASSIVE bullet by not landing Parise and Suter eh? How f***ed is this bunch of losers going forward?
  17. kipwinger

    Babs got fired

    Not like Babs' playoff record in Toronto was some feather in his cap.
  18. kipwinger

    Babs got fired

    You're trying too hard. God love you, but you're trying too hard. Lot of teams have tough schedules, or deficiency at specific positions, or injuries. Hell, look at the mighty Blue Jackets laboring into the playoff picture despite dealing with all three. You know what lots of teams don't have? Tavares, Matthews, Nylander, Marner, Reilly, and Anderson to build around. There's not excuse for their early season struggles, and REALLY rapid turnaround, that doesn't involve an entire team quitting on their assh*le coach.
  19. kipwinger

    13 year-old and father claim Gritty assaulted the boy

    Is it possible for everyone involved in this incident, including Gritty, to die in a fire? Or is that asking too much?
  20. kipwinger

    Mantha might be done for the year - what now

    First, Mantha shouldn't be fighting at all. Second, he gets hurt every single time he fights, so it's starting to get harder and harder to make it seem like it's a fluke.
  21. I remember when they wrong an article entitled, "Why Brendan Smith Really Is That Damn Good". Mind you, this wasn't written before Smith played a game in Detroit, it was written in his 4th year or something. The crux of the argument was that Smith's advanced stats were really good. I'd a back and forth on twitter with the author where I pointed out that Kind's were even better, and asked why he wasn't as high on Kindl. His response, "because Smith plays a more fan friendly style". Meaning, "I like Smith". Obviously that was the last time I took WIIM seriously. I mean anyone, ANYONE, who was still fanboying for Brendan Smith after about his first 50 games has to be the dumbest f*ck alive. Like, waterboy for a Special Olympic Spelling Bee team type of dumb. And almost certainly ugly and pathetic too. But dumb, obviously, is such a person's defining characteristic.
  22. kipwinger

    2019-20 Prospects Thread

    So just checked in on Oliwer Kaski, now playing for the Charlotte Checkers. Remember how we traded him for some bum? Well he's got 11 points in his last 15 games (5 goals, 6 assists). I'm not too beat up about trading him, but starting to seem like we just gave this kid away without really knowing what we had in him.
  23. kipwinger

    Trade deadline bait available this year?

    Yeah, I mean I got that feeling too. Especially after Yzerman took over. Doesn't really fit into the "compete" ethos. But I also don't see the organization mismanaging him as an asset. And right now he's got far less value than he might, at say, the draft. I think they give him through the end of the season to rebound statistically. But if he doesn't then they're in a pickle because you've got to trade him or re-sign him. At that point, re-signing him might be the way to go because he'd be cheaper and HOPEFULLY he'll regain some of his offense next year so he can be traded then. Long story short, I agree that he doesn't seem in their long term plans. But signing him to a 4-5 year deal at a good cap hit might help facilitate a trade down the line.
  24. kipwinger

    2020 Draft Thread

    I don't put a lot of stock in what sports people do or don't do. It took what, 100 years to use a 1-3-1 powerplay in hockey despite the fact that mathematically it makes more sense than a 2-3. Similarly basketball and football constantly do stupid, counter-logical, s*** because nobody's ever really done it differently. In football they still punt, despite it being dumb. And it took basketball a zillion years to figure out that you should just rebound and shoot 3's all game. These days moving the 1st is an even safer move because the 2nd overall guys are so good. I will concede, however, that because fanboys get so moist over each 1st overall pick every year, the move would be HIGHLY unpopular. So you'd better be able to sell it to your fans. Or at least fleece the other team so badly that it's obvious what a good idea it was. But play out the thought experiment. Say you trade the 2015 Connor McDavid 1st overall for Jack Eichel's 2nd, Buffalo's 2016 1st, and Rasmus Ristolainen (probably not even as good a package as you could get, but bear with me). Let's also assume for whatever reason Edmonton REALLY liked Puljujarvi with their own 2016 1st, regardless of the trade. Outcomes of trading the pick: Eichel, Puljujarvi, Ristolainen, and Buffalo's 6th overall. Given that it was clear by the draft in 2016 that Edmonton wanted defensemen (Hence why they traded Hall for peanuts at the draft) I assume they take one of Sergachev, McAvoy, Bean, Chychrun, or Fabbro all of whom were still on the board at 6th. Plus they probably don't trade Hall if they know they're getting a top ten defender and just landed Ristolainen. Outcome of not trading the pick: McDavid, Puljujarvi, and Adam Larsson. Which team is better?
  25. kipwinger

    Trade deadline bait available this year?

    And be saddled with another Nielsen for the next four years at a pretty significant cap hit? Nah, I think I'd rather not. Turris' productive days are behind him, and after we draft a center this year we'll be loaded down the middle.