kickazz

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kickazz last won the day on October 14

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  1. 10/13 - Red Wings at Golden Knights - 10:30 PM EST

    It's 13th to 27th but the actual quantity is only 3% conversion. That's precisely what I'm getting at. "Kronwall was injured, Ericsson's wrist, PP was bad" Are all just narrative words we've said. Even I said it last season at times. But look at the end result doesn't seem to be much different in a lot of these cases. Even if Larkin is worse how did that actually impact the team overall? Like I said the goals for was basically the same between the seasons. Where Larkin slacked, someone else obviously picked up. The fact is the end results in overall team performance offensively and defensively between 2015/16 and 2015/17 was basically the same. Individuals may have done worse but it seems as though someone else was picking up their slack (Zetterberg, Mantha, Vanek to mention a few) to negate the effect overall. Goals for 207 vs 211. Doesn't really explain how offense was any different. We scored the same amount of goals basically. I think there's just an assumption that somehow our offense was worse because Dylan Larkin didn't do well or Sheahan didn't do well, while ignoring that Zetterberg put up 18 more points than the previous season and AA did better and Mantha and Vanek individually were new faces that added more offense.
  2. 10/13 - Red Wings at Golden Knights - 10:30 PM EST

    Right but a lot of what you're saying doesn't quantify. Like yeah those players missed game or we had new faces etc. What does that mean though? Smith played 33 games but then we had Jensen and the Newbies. Did the newbies quantifiably replace what Smith would have brought in anyways? Does losing Quincey actually impact the defense? Maybe it did because DK did end up playing worse. I mean just because certain played didn't play games doesn't necessarily equate to the defense being worse because of them not playing. It's not like Smith, Marchenko are better than what we already have. And like I already said for Kronwall he may have played a fewer games overall than the year before and his point total was cut in half, but that offense was made up by others (end result of the GF for the team was about the same). But defensively his +/- was actually better. So I don't see how the situation with him was worse last year than the year before. Sure, he looked slower, even looked like he was out of position at times, but I'm not sure if that necessarily means he hampered the team moreso than the year before. One could argue that he hampered the team when he was healthier the year before. Like I've already said, there may be a few things slightly worse than the year before, and things do add up. But Mrazek was the weakest link between his two years. There's no denying that. You are as strong as your weakest link after all. The same applies to us wanting to upgrade on defense. The current fan and management mindset is that if you upgrade the defense, this team automatically becomes a cup contender. Which is probably true. So it's not fat-fetched to assume that if the 50 games played by a goalie was more consistent, we would have ended up going from 14th seed to 8th, 9th, 10th seed. I think the best example to back my theory up is the season Carey Price got injured. Montreal was the best team in the league for the longest time. As soon as he got injured they became a non-playoff team. We saw this with Giguiere and handful of other goalies over the years too.
  3. 10/13 - Red Wings at Golden Knights - 10:30 PM EST

    But our goaltending had a huge drop off. Petr Mrazek went from having a 2.33 GAA and .921 % to .898 % and 3.04 GAA. That is a huge, huge difference in performance. Played around 50 games in both seasons. But then looking at Jimmy Howards numbers he actually did better. Howard had 37 games .906% 2.80 GAA two years ago and last year had 26 games .927 %, 2.10 GAA. Both goalies had the same defense in front of them. Another point to look at is our PK between the two season's were nearly identical. So can't be that. Looking at offense, both years we produced nearly identical amount of offense. (211 vs 207 goals for). PP was worse but by only 3% conversion (18% vs 15%). Maybe the extra 3% could have help bring us a bit closer to playoffs but I'm not sure if it would have gotten us in. So the glaring issue for the defense last year seems to have been their production rather than their actual defense. Looking at two seasons ago the defense scored a total of 140 points combined, whereas last year they scored 93. Looking specifically at the top dogs. Kronwall's numbers seems like he was actually worse 2 seasons ago than last season. Defensive advanced stats are worse. -21 two seasons ago, -7 last season. But his production was certainly worse last year. But that's not defense. That's offense. People who did worse defensively: Dekseyser did worse last year. Losing Quincey f***ed him hard. Green did slightly worse but then again, he was used more in a defensive role last year than the year before (where he spent 70% of the time on offensive zone faceoffs). You could argue that defense was "worse" last year but not by much. The weakest link was certainly Petr Mrazek. His GAA dropped by 1. That's pretty significant for a goalie. With the same defense in front of him, Jimmy Howard performed much better. In fact better than he did 2 years ago. There's no denying that if Mrazek was as good as he was in 2015-16 season (overall in the course of the season as an average of his numbers) this team would have been higher in the standings. Because offensively our end product wasnt worse. Sure Larkin, Abdelkader, Sheahan did worse but that slack was picked up by Zetterberg, Mantha, Vanek. Overall the offense produced identically between the two years. So what I see between the two seasons is: Overall offense = identical PK = identical PP = worse (slightly? ish?) Defense = worse (slightly) Goaltending = worse (significantly) Of course the subjective bias is, do you consider a 3.04 GAA really bad or not. I do. My conclusion is if Mrazek/Howard play consistently and have around a 2-2.5 GAA this year. We squeak into the playoffs or miss by only a tiny bit. Of course if Larkin and Mantha continue to perform as they have been then even better. But that may actually be offset by our defense. Our defense has been abysmal thus far. Then again it's only been 5 games.
  4. 10/13 - Red Wings at Golden Knights - 10:30 PM EST

    Cause our goaltending is good
  5. 10/13 - Red Wings at Golden Knights - 10:30 PM EST

    Simply put if we have good goaltending, we'll probably make the playoffs regardless of how bad the PP or defense is. I think it's safe to say that Carey Price would agree with me as well.
  6. 10/13 - Red Wings at Golden Knights - 10:30 PM EST

    Datsyuk was injured and plus the games he game back at least the first 10 or so we either lost or he was ineffective. I don't think Nielsen replacement of Datsyuk was a huge changer. I know people like to think that because it's Datsyuk but he really wasn't all that effective in his last year, Maybe once he got his groove back at one point he was really helpful but I'm not sure how much different it is than having Nielsen last year. Ericsson hasn't been good for years now and while Kronwall declined, guys like Smith, Jensen, Green were additional improvements for the core which probably evened things out anyways. I know our PP was bad but if you look at the actual conversion rate and trends between 2014 to last season it was a difference of 3% (18% in 2016 vs 15% in 2017). Yet we still got into playoffs the 2016 (2015-2016) season. Which makes me wonder if there was an additional element to what allowed us to get in; that element to me was great stretch of goaltending by Mrazek. The difference between the goaltending of 2016 and 2017 was that last year, Mrazek simply couldn't get it going at all. He had decent games, but then really bad games and when the better goalie (Howard) did play, it was only like 20 some games. Whereas while both Mrazek and Howard may have faltered at the end of the 2016 season, Mrazek went thru an unsustainable stretch from December to February where he was outputting some of the best goaltending we've seen in decades. And that might have been enough to get us an advantage in the standings to allow us to get in eventually. (We backed in, thanks to the Senators). A lot of times during the games you hear Ken Daniels say things like "Early and mid season games are really important because there's a correlation to getting into playoffs" or something like that. I've never actually looked into it but if that's the case, it may explain why having a Vezina like stretch from Mrazek in 2016 was why we ended up getting into the playoffs ultimately. My point is last season our goal tending just couldn't get it going. Howard was great but barely played and of the games he played he lost almost half of them. Whereas in the previous seasons, when the goaltenders got it going. They really got it going for months at a time. Until they faltered. By which point though, we probably had enough cushion in the standings to sustain a playoff spot that was still in reach even if we were hovering between 8th, or 9th or 10th spot.
  7. 10/13 - Red Wings at Golden Knights - 10:30 PM EST

    Why is anyone surprised? The reason we didn’t make the playoffs last year was because of poor goaltending. The reason we made it the year before, the year before that and even before that was because we had decent goaltending. Now that the goaltending is good again, it’s no surprise we start winning again. We’re a playoff team as long as Howard/Mrazek make stops. Newsflash: our defense has sucked since 2013. What kept on allowing us into the playoffs wasn’t Johan Franzen or Pavel Datsyuk or 32 year old Kronwall. It was having above average goaltending. Last year we had poor goaltending, the same s*** defense and the same old slightly above average offense. As long as you have 2 out of 3 things (offense, defense or goaltending) you can be a playoff team. Of course in order to actually win the Stanley Cup you need to be REALLY good at 2-3 of those things. In Pittsburgh’s case they have an elite offense, great defense and decent goaltending. Hence Stanley Cup. If Howard continues to be great and Mrazek does good, we’ll probably end up being 7th or 8th seed as per usual. Once those two start sucking we’ll be 12th seed.
  8. All Purpose Grand Rapids Griffins Thread

    Don’t forget to tell him that we fight passive-aggressive with passive-aggressive.
  9. 10/13 - Red Wings at Golden Knights - 10:30 PM EST

    I hope it turns into a thing forever. Another 81 games please.
  10. 10/13 - Red Wings at Golden Knights - 10:30 PM EST

    That's the norm.
  11. 10/13 - Red Wings at Golden Knights - 10:30 PM EST

    NHL recognition is rare usually drool over McDavid and Crosby
  12. 10/13 - Red Wings at Golden Knights - 10:30 PM EST

    Henrik Zetterberg and his angels.
  13. 10/13 - Red Wings at Golden Knights - 10:30 PM EST

    This is what I meant by putting Mantha and Zetterberg back together. They just work. Plain and simple.