I've been thinking this for a couple years. I didn't like the price tag on Cleary from day 1.
When this guy absolutely maxs his potential he could be a 55 point guy. That 55 points comes by playing a full season (which he has never done with the Wings). Say what you want about all that he can do but i'm not even slightly convinced that Helm, Miller, or Eaves couldn't fulfill his duties now or shortly in the future.
Dan Cleary - Gm 272 pts 156 pts/gm .56
Gm G A Pt
2009-10 Detroit 64 15 19 34 17:13
2008-09 Detroit 74 14 26 40
2007-08 Detroit 63 20 22 42
2006-07 Detroit 71 20 20 40
The Alternative
Patrick Eaves 65 12 10 22 13:26 ATOI .33/with Cleary's ATOI(about .44)
Darren Helm 75 11 13 24 14:29 ATOI .32/with Cleary's ATOI(about .41)
Drew Miller 80 10 9 19 12:37 ATOI .23/with Cleary's ATOI(about .32)
All the "with Cleary's ATOI's" are not taking into account that if they were to get his ice time they would be playing on the power play and with much more skilled players leaving much more opportunity to ramp up production. On top of that all of the above players are much younger than Cleary and will likely get higher point totals if they kept the same ice time, let alone had more. Miller and Helm played more games this season than Cleary ever has with the Wings in a single season.
Helm would move up. I know I can't be the only one who strongly believes that Darren could flurish with more ice time. If Kenny feels a little nervous depth wise, he's got 2.5 more million to ease his hankering. If a top 2 line guy is hurt move one of the afformentioned kids up. Eaves probably has the most offensive upside (see draft position/rookie year)
The Bottom Line
A point that gets lost in this argument is that we only have, what, 2 million left under the cap? Meaning we will probably lose one the the three RFA's above. My guess is either Miller or Eaves will be sent packing unless we clear space. So here's what I see.
The Wings with Cleary:
2.5 extra towards the cap (maybe the most important stat). 55 points in fantasy land, 40-45 in the real world. We keep a player who has almost certainly reached his potential as a hockey player, is injury prone, and could quite easily be replaced from within and at about half of the salary. One of the kids above is gone. Posives: (see below, marketed as...).
The Wings without Cleary:
An extra second/third round pick in this or next years draft and/or mid-level prospect, with Cleary being market as a Wings system product, hard worker, maybe 50 points with full year 2nd line duty, and a Cup ring. I could see it happening. (obviously he'd have to agree to it, but i don't see him throwing a huge fit if management clearly wants to move on and he goes somewhere to play more)
Helm, Eaves, and Miller all get to stay if Kenny wants them. All get a chance to produce more at ages where that is the chance they need. At very least, between the three of them, I expect them to make up Cleary's points. More cap space in the next couple years. We keep players who earn salaries based on full seasons, not 68 avg games (get our money's worth!).
Note: Don't get me wrong here, I like Dan Cleary. I'll never forget his goal in game 7, 2nd round, against Anaheim with three minutes left. Hard worker, tough, had to change his life to regain his career. But the numbers make sense and the cap makes things rough some times. Wings should of went a little lower with his salary to begin with.
