toby91_ca

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Posts posted by toby91_ca

  2. Posted · Report reply

    On 3/1/2021 at 3:32 PM, Gniwder said:

    He shoulda been sold this offseason. He'll be 27 in the fall. 3 more seasons at $5.7. Is career average player of about 65 pts a season even with his current play.

    I expect a deal would take place in the offseason considering the state of the league, his sizable salary, and the haul he'd likely return.

    Where does career average 65pts a season come from?

  3. Posted · Report reply

    1 - $10M isn't close to a max contract

    2 - He's not worth that kind of money

    3 - Even if he was currently, he's too old to be signing a 7 year contract for that type of money

    13dangledangle and krsmith17 reacted to this

  4. Posted · Report reply

    2 hours ago, The 91 of Ryans said:

    Give me one example where the league BoG voted in the majority for something this dumb and unfair? 

    While not quite the same scenario, is the "Crosby" lottery similar?  The draft process was changed for that draft.  I think every team was in on being able to get the #1 pick.  I think Pittsburgh was still the worst team from the prior season, but technically, their odds of getting the first pick were reduced from what they otherwise would have been.

    In this situation though, it is different because there was already a draft in 2004 and no season in 2005, so that's why all teams were thrown in with possibility of getting #1.

    The current situation is different, but I could still see tweaks, which are reasonable and make sense.  First, even if the Wings won all of their remaining games, they would still finish last, so they need to have the highest probability and it can't change from where it currently sits.  For probabilities of the next lottery teams, I can see the percentages tweaked a bit or evened out a bit based on some logic, but not sure.  Then, you also have to figure out the rest of the order.  I think more time will be spent on this than really should though.

  5. Posted · Report reply

    Pretty sure all the scheduled games are still showing on the calendar is because each game is postponed right now, they haven't "cancelled" the season.  It's funny though, even if the season were to resume, we know it will be with a completely revamped schedule.

  6. Posted · Report reply

    3 minutes ago, marcaractac said:

    Mario had 12 great seasons. He was never the same after his return. Not that I blame it on him. Ovie has a level of consistency in his scoring that has never been seen before. That sets him apart. Was luck involved? Absolutely. 

    Luck is involved in being able to accumulate totals, but I have a hard time putting a lot of weight on that when it comes to determining who is a better player.  Of course, it does play a role.  I wouldn't look at a player that put up crazy numbers in 300-400 games in terms of all-time greatness.....that's tough luck, once you get past a certain point, I think you can reduce the impact of longevity.  For example.....doesn't anyone on the planet think Ron Francis is a better scorer (point producer) than Lemieux?  He's ahead of him on the all-time scoring list.

    Ovechkin currently has 16 more career goals than Lemieux, but he's played in 237 more games.  That will be the argument a Lemieux backer who make.  That's completely different than having 300 more goals than Lemieux in 600 more games or something like that....which is where it could go....but we're not there yet.  The Ovechkin backer would argue league scoring was higher during Lemieux's career, which is probably true, but I haven't analyzed it (Lemieux did play during some really bad scoring years league wide I believe).

  7. Posted · Report reply

    42 minutes ago, marcaractac said:

    If playoffs go ahead use standings as is, but have four wildcards in each conference. Have 4 best 2 out of 3 series for all wildcard teams to reduce to the usual 2 per conference. That way any team close enough to a playoff spot that has an argument still has a shot at making it. 

    At some point, no matter which approach is taken will lead to something unfair for some team. Just got to suck it up and live with it at some point. 

    Already talking about truncated 1st round.  The simple issues to point to right now would be the NYI....1pt out of wildcard, but they've only played 68 games vs the 70 games that the 2 wildcard teams have played.  Vancouver is tied for last wildcard spot in the West, but technically out of playoff picture, they are 1pt back of 1st wildcard team and 2 games in hand. 

  8. Posted · Report reply

    25 minutes ago, amato said:

    if the NHL suspends the rest of the regular season, but returns for the normal start of playoffs, these would be the matchups. 

    At least we'd get a couple good rivalry matchups.... 



    EASTERN CONFERENCE
    Bruins vs. Blue Jackets
    Capitals vs. Hurricanes
    Lightning vs. Maple Leafs
    Flyers vs. Penguins

    WESTERN CONFERENCE
    Blues vs. Predators
    Golden Knights vs. Jets
    Avalanche vs. Stars
    Oilers vs. Flames

    Significant challenge would be that they couldn't just take the standings as they stand today because some teams have played 68 games, some 71 (if I'm accurate).  

  9. Posted · Report reply

    56 minutes ago, kliq said:

    I am curious, Ovie is leading the poll but I don’t think anyone has justified how he is a better scorer then Mario. Can someone who voted for Ovie present that argument?

    That's a good question.  From my perspective, I probably have Mario in my "Gretzky bucket" in that I never really saw him as a pure goal scorer, but statistically speaking, hard to argue.

  11. Posted · Report reply

    2 hours ago, Spongewingredpants said:

    No please don’t cancel. I want to see how the -122 goal differential ends up 

    Yeah, it's getting pretty bad.  I was looking at that stat earlier in the year, but hadn't paid much attention recently.  They are firmly in last place by quite a margin, but that stat is even worse.  They are -122, the 2nd, 3rd and 4th worst teams are a combined -130.

    Hockeymom1960 reacted to this

  12. Posted · Report reply

    On 3/5/2020 at 9:10 AM, amato said:

     

    this. I just want to see as many rivalry matchups as possible.

    Edmonton/Calgary
    Philly/Pittsburgh 
    Boston/Toronto 

    Would also like to see a rematch of Columbus/Tampa. I like Tampa, but it'd be hilarious if they got swept by Columbus again :D  

    Looks like there will be a PHI/PIT or PIT/WSH 1st round series, either would be good.

    In terms of TB/CBJ, I think that is close to an impossibility at this point.  TB is 8pts behind BOS with 12 games to go.  The only was TB can play CBJ (in first round anyway) is if they win the division, otherwise, they wouldn't play a wild card team.  Looks like it will be TB/TOR.

  13. Posted · Report reply

    On 3/6/2020 at 1:54 PM, ChristopherReevesLegs said:

    Meh Gretsky was already returning to earth in 1985. Three years removed from the THE TRADE

    He was accumulating more assists than anyone else had points back in 85/86.....as I say, I just think he wasn't really a pure goal scorer, he was just a good hockey player and he scored when he needed to, but more often than not, looked to set up others.

    Moving to LA didn't really impact his production, it really was the hit from behind from Gary Suter in the 1991 Canada Cup....that had a significant impact on his production for the rest of his career (he was only 30 years old at the time as well....his numbers could have been even higher than they are).

  14. Posted · Report reply

    22 minutes ago, ChristopherReevesLegs said:

    I'm sorry you're correct, he led 5 seasons, not 4.

    Absolutely agree with you though. Comparing Gretsky to Ovechkin is like comparing Yzerman to Hull. For the former it was about playing a complete playmaking game where goals naturally just came, and for the later it was about a hyper-focus on goal scoring.

    That stylistic difference alone leads me to somewhat of a bias towards Ovi, Bossy, Hull types.

    If you look at the graphs I posted, Gretsky was on a pretty steady downward trend in goal scoring adjusted per game after the early 80s. His career looks like it has 3 stages: Early 20s beyond human. Late 20s human, but still the GOAT. 30s dead puck era and post Suter, great player but nowhere near his former self. Ovechkin on the other hand is seemingly immune to age and wear and tear like Howe was. His consistency in goal scoring is flat out remarkable.

    You're correct on Ovechkin's consistency, but I wonder if a lot of that has to do with the league as well.  Pre-injury, while Gretzky's goal scoring decreased in late 80s, I wonder how much is him vs. league.....i.e. where his totals compare against competition?  It doesn't matter that much though, I don't have him at the top of my list....maybe unfairly though?

  15. Posted · Report reply

    On 3/3/2020 at 3:20 PM, ChristopherReevesLegs said:

    And by the time he turned 26 (1988) his goal scoring average dropped to about 40 per season.
    Then once the dead puck era started (1993) when he was 31 his average dropped to about 28 per season.

    Gretsky only led the league in goals scored 4 times in his career.

    Richard did the same 5 times
    Howe did the same 5 times
    Esposito did the same 6 times
    Bobby Hull did the same 7 times
    Ovechkin has done the same 8 times (a record), and he's in the hunt to do it again at 34 years old. If he does it I believe that will make him the oldest player to lead the league in goals since Gordie Howe in 1963. He's doing all this at an older age then Gretsky, in a decreased scoring leage that a younger Wayne could only manage to average 28 goals a season in.

    The great 8 baby
     

     

    I think Gretzky lead the league 5 times, not 4.  At the same time, I've never really thought about him as the best goal scorer because that was not the type of player he was.  He put up huge goal totals just because he was that good....but goal scoring was secondary for him (same for Mario, but to a lesser extent).  So I'm somewhat biased into thinking Bossy and Ovechkin are better goal scorers simply because that's their game.  I mean, Ovechkin has 700ish goals and 570 assists.  When Gretzky had 700 goals, his assist total was 1,400+....so you look at it a bit different.

    To set the record straight a bit on Gretzky's stats though, his goal scoring didn't go down that much at 26....yes, he scored 40 goals that year, but only in 64 games, he scored 54 in 78 games the next year, then 41 in 73 games the following year.  The biggest turning point in his career was when he was 30 and got hit from behind into the boards by Gary Suter (international play).  He was never the same player after that.  His goal scoring (because as I suggested, was secondary) seemed to take the biggest hit.

    All that said, I think Ovechkin is the greatest goal scorer, most pure goal scorer.  I would have liked to see what Bossy could have done if his career wasn't cut short.

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  16. Posted · Report reply

    Here's my basic logic...which is a cop out really, but it's true at the same time.  Those suggesting Larkin has proven himself as a 1C.....I want to say are wrong, but at a minimum, would have a hard time supporting that.  I'm not going to say he won't prove to be one over the course of his career, but he hasn't shown the consistency yet to suggest he's "proven".  Did it look like he was well on his way last year after building and improving on 60+ points the year before?  Absolutely.  I'm guessing he'll bounce back at this year is just a stumbling block.  Bad teams or not though, that can't be a big excuse.  There are + and - in terms of being able to produce based on how good your team is.

    On the flip side, has this season proven anything regarding his ability to be a 1C going foward?  Absolutely not, however, it's fair for people to be concerned.

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  17. Posted · Report reply

    All star game and selection is not what it used to be....I'm sure 90+% of that is because what it used to be is when I was a kid, so much different perspective, but for me, part of looking at player accomplishments is how many all star selections they have....which really doesn't make sense anymore.  The best players don't always get selected anymore....didn't use to be that way.  How does the #5 scorer not make the all star team?

    Is it annoying when players say stuff like what Larkin said?  Sure.....easy to disparage him for that.  However, since I don't care enough anymore, I'll just give him the benefit of the doubt and look at it this way:  If I'm in Larkin's shoes....I'd be thinking to myself "please don't vote me in"....I'd be embarrassed being selected when I clearly don't deserve to be there....I'd be dreading showing up to the event.  The John Scott was a completely different scenario....everyone had fun with that.

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  18. Posted · Report reply

    Could always look at it as the team is chasing history this year.....could they have the worst season in their history?  It will be close, but I don't think they can pull it off due to the 3 point game in today's era.  They have the best chance to pull off worst GF vs GA stat in history though.  Currently sitting at -62, on pace for -159.....lowest in team history was 85/86 season at -149 and that makes this year look even worse as there was a lot more goal scoring in 85/86, so easier to get blown out and run up a huge -

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  20. Posted · Report reply

    41 minutes ago, ChristopherReevesLegs said:

    Q is about 5 years older and has about 5 years of wins on Babs. Trotz is truly ahead of him. Didn't realize how young Maurice is...

    Let's say top 5

    You're right on him being 5 years younger and about 5 years worth of wins away from Q, which is why I'm saying it's possible, but will he coach 5 years longer than Q?  Who knows.  

  21. Posted · Report reply

    15 hours ago, ChristopherReevesLegs said:

    Babcock: Holds multiple stand alone records and accomplishments in coaching. Poised to become the 2nd winningest NHL coach of all time behind only Scotty Bowman.

    Possible, but I think Quenneville and Trotz are pretty big roadblocks between Babcock and #2 all-time.  Paul Maurice even.

  23. Posted · Report reply

    21 hours ago, kipwinger said:

    Score more?  I think Craig's whole point is that Draisaitl scores a bunch anyway and is a Selke caliber two-way forward.  And he's genuinely got a point.  Matthews doesn't really play defense.  Draisaitl is like 2008 Henrik Zetterberg, but in Peter Forsberg's body.

    Don't Zetterberg and Forsberg pretty much have the same body (size)?  Draisaitl is quite a bit bigger than both.  

  24. Posted · Report reply

    54 minutes ago, HoweFan said:

    I can’t blame Commodore for signing.  Who wouldn’t take the mil when you are at the end of your career anyway.  

    He was thinking it was his last chance, but can't imagine he was thinking he was at the end of his career.  He was 31 years old when he signed.  He was hoping he'd prove some things that year and it would translate into a 5-6 year deal somewhere else after that.