36 replies to this topic

[fightfan24]

So much for that long weekend in Islamorada I had planned...

http://www.breitbart.../D8DB43VG3.html

[Matt]

Surprised there aren't more people talking about this. This storm is a BEAST.

- The strongest Atlantic basin Hurricane in recorded history (882mb)

- The most rapid intensification of an Atlantic basin Hurricane in recorded history

I mean, shoot -- the freaking eyewall this morning was JUST TWO MILES WIDE. I've been reading up off and on all day on a few FARK.com threads (which are, bar-none, the best resource of up-to-the-minute facts and info for these things) and the best explanation for the pinhole eyewall is the "figure skater" effect...

... Speed intensifies when, at the end of a routine, when the skater draws her/his arms in toward the body. Same principle.

At one point, hurricane-force winds were only 15 miles out from the eyewall. That's CRAZY. You go from tropical storm force winds (<39mph) to hurricane force to 200mph gusts in the distance it takes me to drive home from work (10 miles) every day.

Insanity.

Since then those hurricane-force winds have spread out 50 miles from the eyewall and it appears the eye will collapse and reform (common for high Cat 4/5 hurricanes as it reorganizes itself... Rita did the same).

Anyway, how about this? The eye, for a time (not sure if this is still the case now), was NOT EVEN THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION! How crazy is that?

Take a look:

http://cimss.ssec.wi...visirjava1.html



/yes, I'm an admitted hurricane junky

[Jedi]

I'm due to be in Cozumel one month from today... I'm really wondering what this hurricane is going to do to that area...

[Matt]

Not much outside some flooding by the looks of it. The storm is starting to take a NW track instead of the previous WNW... Looks like the turn is coming, though the NHC has no freaking clue where it's going to hit, though.

Most said SoFla/Keys, but Wilma may not be affected as bad by that trough as some thought -- therefore allowing it to track further north, toward Tampa, etc... Then there are some saying it could turn anyway, but miss Florida and slam into Cuba... Not one's got any idea at this point. The eye is occiliating too much as it replaces the eyewall. Once it re-establishes itself and the circulation focuses again it could give that 882mb record it set a real test... (It's currently 898mb)

[gowingsgo]

These storms change rapidly when out at sea. They can expand and contract several times before they hit land. Hopefully this one loses some of that punch before it hits land, wherever it does hit.

Last thing we need is for gas to go back up now. Gas is in the high $2.70 range now in Cali. I want to see this gas keep going down.

[Sting 11]

Below is a segment from the National Hurricane Center's 5:00 pm discussion (emphasis mine):

[SouthernWingsFan]

This is just depressing me. Three storms being some of the strongest on record all in one summer.

What's happening down here around my neck of the woods hurts, but you gotta feel for residents and businesses of the Key West and South Florida area, they've gone through a good bit this summer as well.

[Sting 11]

There's some doofus on O'Reilly from Accuweather (or as I call it, Inaccuweather) saying absolutes like "there is NO threat to the Western and Central Gulf" and "this is the last landfalling hurricane of the season, no doubt".

Weather is not the exact science this guy is making it out to be. We still have a lot to learn.

[MasterSephy]

this storm got so strong, well it IS the last alphabet named storm. After this we start calling them based on the greek alphabet. Start with Hurricane Alpha (funny name, but I like sequel storms like: Hurricane Wilma II.)
I'm all for mother nature ending off the human race, but this is ridiculous!

[wingsgirl001]

I can't freaking believe this. I looked on CNN this morning to browse the news and was shocked to see this. It was barely a Cat. 1 when I went to bed the night before.

I was telling my friend a few days ago, after the earthquake in the Pakistan area killed thousands, that God must really hate us this year or something. Tsunamis, multiple huge ass hurricanes, earthquakes, flooding...what's going on?!

Anyway...its down to a Cat. 4 now (still f**king strong, but at least its gone down a bit), according to the latest article on Weather.com

http://www.weather.c...m=wxcenter_news

Let's hope this thing dies down a s***ton before hitting land. We don't need any more of this.

[SouthernWingsFan]

[Sting 11]

The latest computer models are back in agreement for a Southwest Florida strike:

[Matt]

[wingsgirl001]

This thing is huge.

[commadore183]

Those outer bands must be *****-slapping the Yucatan by now.

wingsgirl001: I know how you feel about that. When I went to bed Tuesday night, it was a Cat 1; bout 12 hours later, BAM!!! Cat 5 175MPH winds! Damn. Hopefully this one won't be the Cat 4 by the time it hits.

[fightfan24]

Charlie blew up fast too -- it is hard to tell.

Cancun's strip is pretty clear now and as of 6pm they were still bouncing out flights from the airport. The surge will really mess up that beach. I go the Club Med there about every seven or eight years and it is different every time. I lost my trip to the keys but still have doubts about such an easterly track. I'd be on my heels anywhere along the gulf coast.

[Matt]

It'll turn and Florida will get it, it's just where that's up for debate. Some models show it going as far north as Tampa to as far south as Everglades city. The lower pressure front moving through the midwest will determine how quickly in starts it's turn to the NNE.

Looks like it's going to stall out over Cozumel/Cancun... That's BAD.

The eye of that thing is far bigger than the island of Cozumel itself and prolonged exposure to a near Cat-5 Hurricane on the western eyewall is going to be DEVASTATING.

[gowingsgo]

Its got to be tough to live in Florida and have to constantly monitor these storms. Again, wherever it does hit is not good.

[Sting 11]

The most amazing thing I saw with this is that at it's peak intensity, when it's central pressure was 882mb, Wilma's eye was 2 miles wide. To compare, the widest tornado ever recorded in history was 2.5 miles wide. Unbelievable. At that point, hurricane force winds (>73 mph) were recorded at a maximum of only 15 miles from the center.

It's really like a spinning figure skater in a sense. Now that the winds are slower and the pressure is higher, the eye is larger and the hurricane force winds are spread out over a much larger area. So really, the storm as it is now may be more destructive in an overall sense than it was when it was at its peak.

[Matt]

Sting -- Yep, I agree. The eye is about 40 miles across now and putting an ass-whuppin' on Cozumel.

Here's the photo of the "pinhole" eye when Wilma was shattering all sorts of Atlantic basin records:

http://www.nnvl.noaa...51019-1kg12.jpg

Daaaaaaaaammmnnnn....