What is a game winning goal supposed to tell us?

[WingsFan2007 0]

Let's say the Wings beat the Blues 6-1 with the Blues scoring their lone goal with two seconds left in the game. If the GWG is meant to show clutch or ability to score important goals, then somehow the scoring of that lone Blues goal made the Wings second goal more clutch than the first goal. However, at the time of the Wings second goal, the scorer of the goal didn't know that it would become important, so he couldn't have scored that goal based on any extra ability he has to perform in clutch situations or to score more important goals.

Therefore, I ask what is the game winning goal statistic really supposed to tell us?

And for those who don't know how 'game winning goal' is determined, it is the goal that gives the winning team a goal total of one greater than what the losing team ends up with at the end of the game. Whether or not the goal actually wins the game is immaterial.

[Draper_Rocks#33 4]

u could just say its the goal that breaks the tie

[haroldsnepsts 4,826]

statistically I don't think it means much.

If a guy has a lot of GWG's, people may try and say he's clutch, but that's reading way too much into it. Context of the goal is everything.

Honestly I don't think it's a very useful stat.

[sibiriak 84]

Let's say the Wings beat the Blues 6-1 with the Blues scoring their lone goal with two seconds left in the game. If the GWG is meant to show clutch or ability to score important goals, then somehow the scoring of that lone Blues goal made the Wings second goal more clutch than the first goal. However, at the time of the Wings second goal, the scorer of the goal didn't know that it would become important, so he couldn't have scored that goal based on any extra ability he has to perform in clutch situations or to score more important goals.

Therefore, I ask what is the game winning goal statistic really supposed to tell us?

And for those who don't know how 'game winning goal' is determined, it is the goal that gives the winning team a goal total of one greater than what the losing team ends up with at the end of the game. Whether or not the goal actually wins the game is immaterial.

As any other stat, the GWG is not perfect. But a player with a lot of GWGs stands better chance of having scored more important and game-breaking goals then a player with few GWGs.

[toby91_ca 620]

Very good question. A lot of people look at game winning goal stats to show who is "clutch" when it counts, but you are right, your team could win 11-0, is the guy who scored the first goal a real clutch performer?

u could just say its the goal that breaks the tie

Apart from not addressing the question, I am not sure that is even true.

For example, your team could score the first 4 goals of the game and then the other team scores the last 3. The game winning goal is the 4th goal scored by your team, but at the time it was scored, it put your team up 4-0, it wasn't breaking a tie.

[sibiriak 84]

Maybe they shouldn't even award the GWG if the game was not close, say if one team won by more than 3 goals.

[WingsFan2007 0]

Very good question. A lot of people look at game winning goal stats to show who is "clutch" when it counts, but you are right, your team could win 11-0, is the guy who scored the first goal a real clutch performer?

Apart from not addressing the question, I am not sure that is even true.

For example, your team could score the first 4 goals of the game and then the other team scores the last 3. The game winning goal is the 4th goal scored by your team, but at the time it was scored, it put your team up 4-0, it wasn't breaking a tie.

Good point with respect to what Draper_Rocks#33 said. Perhaps he thinks the game winning goal is the goal that gives your team a lead that you don't relinquish. However, there could be several goals in one game that break ties.

[Dano33 41]

another idea might be to only award a gwg if it comes in the third period

[WingsFan2007 0]

statistically I don't think it means much.

If a guy has a lot of GWG's, people may try and say he's clutch, but that's reading way too much into it. Context of the goal is everything.

Honestly I don't think it's a very useful stat.

Why not get rid of the game winning goal stat and develop a 'clutch goal' stat. Perhaps it could be a goal that is scored in the final 10 minutes when the game is reasonably close, say when there is not more than a 2 goal lead.

another idea might be to only award a gwg if it comes in the third period

Well, if you take the term 'game winning goal' literally, it should only be awarded if it is a clinching goal. That would mean it would have to be scored at the last second of the third period to win the game or in overtime.

[Heroes of Hockeytown 694]

OT goals are a much better indicator of clutchness if you ask me... Joe Sakic and Mats Sundin are the top two guys I think of when it comes to winning the game in extra sessions.

[TheUltimateWingsFan 1]

I think an unofficial stat that is tracked is go-ahead-goals. It is probably much more meaningful than game-winning-goals.....then again if you score first, and your team gets shelled, you'll get credit for a go-ahead-goal in a losing effort (think about that Wings-Sharks game a while back), still your goal was important early on. Plus, in games that swing back in forth, a player could get multiple go-ahead-goals in the same game, and that's the way it should be. So yeah, go-ahead-goals are what we should be tracking.

The problem with trying to come up with a clutch goal stat that requires a set of circumstances (last 10 minutes, close game, etc.) is that not every team will find themselves in that situation with the same frequency. It'd be impossible to compare stats.

Edited February 7, 2007 by TheUltimateWingsFan

[norrisnick 1]

Hello Rimouski...

[haroldsnepsts 4,826]

Hello Rimouski...

is it really him?

could it be?

I would've expected this thread to be eight pages of inane statistical rambling by now!

EDITED for typo.

Edited February 7, 2007 by haroldsnepsts

[Guest LivingtheDream]

u could just say its the goal that breaks the tie

That would be a better stat on clutch performance no? How many tieing goals did a guy score.

[WingsFan2007 0]

As any other stat, the GWG is not perfect. But a player with a lot of GWGs stands better chance of having scored more important and game-breaking goals then a player with few GWGs.

The same could be said for a player who scores more goals. He'll also stand a better chance of having scored more game breaking goals.

[norrisnick 1]

is it really him?

could it be?

I would've expected this thread to be eight pages of inane statistical rambling by now!

EDITED for typo.

I'm about 99% certain. If a thread about the merits of winning percentage vs standings points pops up that last shred of doubt will be removed...

[Mighty Wings 0]

There should be more in-depth categories on GWGs.

There should be GWGs in the 3rd period and OT, GWGs in 1 goal games & 2 goal games.

[WingsFan2007 0]

I'm about 99% certain. If a thread about the merits of winning percentage vs standings points pops up that last shred of doubt will be removed...

I gather Rimouski was someone who posted threads about game winning goals and standings. If I'm correct, did he have any viable points? Perhaps you have a link to some of his posts.

[WingsFan2007 0]

Let's look at tonight's game:

Phoenix 9:06, Owen Nolan 13 (Ladislav Nagy, Steve Reinprecht)

2nd Period

Detroit 4:51, Robert Lang 14 (Brett Lebda, Chris Chelios)

Detroit 16:27, Henrik Zetterberg 23 (Danny Markov, Tomas Holmstrom)

Phoenix 19:43, Shane Doan 19 (power play) (Yanic Perreault, Mike Zigomanis)

3rd Period

Detroit 3:22, Henrik Zetterberg 24 (Nicklas Lidstrom, Tomas Holmstrom)

Detroit 19:00, Pavel Datsyuk 16 (Henrik Zetterberg)

Zetterberg is credited with the game winning goal, but I would say Datsyuk's goal was more important, as it gave the Wings the extra insurance they needed in the event Phoenix scored in the closing seconds. However, if Zetterberg's goal were scored much later in the third period - perhaps at the 16:00 or 17:00 mark, then I would say it is more important than Datsyuk's goal. Any other thoughts?

[Heroes of Hockeytown 694]

I don't really see how an EN goal could ever be more important than a GWG in a situation like this. Pavel could have just as easily missed, followed by the Wings denying Phoenix the blueline for sixty seconds for the win.

Meanwhile, there is no empty-net scenario if Hank doesn't score earlier.

[WingsFan2007 0]

I don't really see how an EN goal could ever be more important than a GWG in a situation like this. Pavel could have just as easily missed, followed by the Wings denying Phoenix the blueline for sixty seconds for the win.

Meanwhile, there is no empty-net scenario if Hank doesn't score earlier.

So let's say the Coyotes scored a goal with 3 seconds left and the final was 4-3. If Zetterberg's goal indeed was more important than Datsyuk's goal, then the GWG ends up going to the less important goal - Datsyuk's.

[haroldsnepsts 4,826]

I'm about 99% certain. If a thread about the merits of winning percentage vs standings points pops up that last shred of doubt will be removed...

Good call NNick.

[Heroes of Hockeytown 694]

So let's say the Coyotes scored a goal with 3 seconds left and the final was 4-3. If Zetterberg's goal indeed was more important than Datsyuk's goal, then the GWG ends up going to the less important goal - Datsyuk's.

So what? That's not relevant to this game: they didn't score with three seconds left.

Yous said this: "Zetterberg is credited with the game winning goal, but I would say Datsyuk's goal was more important, as it gave the Wings the extra insurance they needed in the event Phoenix scored in the closing seconds."

Scenario: your team is leading by a goal. You nail an empty-netter. Game ends, no further scoring.

Whose goal was the most important? The guy with the GWG. I don't care how many hypotheticals you come up with.

Edited February 8, 2007 by Heroes of Hockeytown

[WingsFan2007 0]

So what? That's not relevant to this game: they didn't score with three seconds left.

Yous said this: "Zetterberg is credited with the game winning goal, but I would say Datsyuk's goal was more important, as it gave the Wings the extra insurance they needed in the event Phoenix scored in the closing seconds."

Scenario: your team is leading by a goal. You nail an empty-netter. Game ends, no further scoring.

Whose goal was the most important? The guy with the GWG. I don't care how many hypotheticals you come up with.

If Zetterberg's goal was more important than Datsyuk's goal and a last second Phoenix goal doesn't have an impact on who wins, then it would stand to reason that Zetterberg's goal would still be more important than Datsyuk's goal - even with the last second Phoenix goal that closes the gap to 4-3.

[stevie for president 42]

Game Winning Goal statistics are pointless, if you ask me. I know thats not what the thread is about, but honestly, in a game like hockey, game winning anythings arent meaningful. Baseballs has walkoff homers, basketball has buzzer beaters, and football has their 2 minute drill. Hockey has no equivalent, and trying to force an equivalent to exist is just stupid. If anything, it should be "Game tying goals with the goalie pulled/ overtime goals" Thats clutch play, not scoring with 1 minute into a game of a 1-0 victory.