Salary Cap Question

[Miquel Beltran 0]

I have been thinking about it all the afternoon (US morning) and I wondered something

The signing of Hossa may have a "gentleman agreement" of a longer term deal between Ken Holland and Marian Hossa that couldn´t be done because of next season RFAs and UFAs ( especially Zetterberg and Franzen) because they may have thought the same "cap scenario" that I did.

The "evolution" of the salary has been the following.

Year Cap Growth ( Respect the previous year)

05-06 39M$ ---

06-07 44M$ 12,8%

07-08 50,3M$ 14,3%

08-09 56,7M$ 12,7%

What would be a correct estimate of the Salary Cap of the 2009-2010 Season ?

If the cap growths about 12%, it will be about 63,5M$. a 6.8M$ extra space.

Now, let´s asume that Flip is locked with a long term deal.

So, as our beloved GM said that nobody will make more than Lidstrom, if Hank re-signs at the "Detroit Maximum" he would make 7.45 , a 4.8M$ raise ( It could be less, in our great organization you never know) the extra space will narrow from 6.8 to 2.

If Franzen has a great season (something really possible playing on a line with Flip and Hossa) this 2M$ won´t be enough to retain all of them as everybody in this board is worried. Hudler will also need to be re-signed and would be the sure man out.

If the cap raise is less than the 12%, all this worries could materialize into losing Hossa and Franzen or Hudler (or both).

But I seriously believe that the cap will grow more than expected.

Why ?

- Correct me if I´m wrong, but the new HNIC deal kicks in the next season, this contract will push the league revenues higher. ( has anyone estimations about its impact in a future cap).

-The league is more popular than it was the last two seasons. The Finals had higher viewers than anyone could expect. This bigger exposure should push the revenues higher.

-Chicago, one of the biggest hockey markets in the U.S. has a really good on-ice product, his revenues should grow a lot.

-Economic experts don´t expect a important drop on the Canadian Dollar, at least on the next year.

And finally the question for all the experts on LGW, I´m only doing wishful thinking or the scenario of a cap around 68M$ ( around 20% increase) with the possibility of retaining everyone could be realistic ?

P.S. It´s 4:00 am and English is not my first language, keep that in mind if my explanation is far from good. At least I hope I can make myself understandable.

[po-GoWings 1]

i think its fair to say the cap will go up again, it has to go up at least 12 million dollars to keep hossa franzen and zetterberg though. We definitely would have to drop sammy and probably hoodles (would hate to see him leave). it's just gonna be near impossible but i never doubt the almighty ken holland.

Edited July 3, 2008 by po-GoWings

[marcaractac 3,962]

Well Holland said today he'll definitely look at trying to sign Hossa long term next June. He was talking about the whole asking players to take less to win deal, and said he will have lots of talks with Hank and Mule, and Hossa when the time comes to see if they can all be kept. Sammy is gonna be gone after this season anyway. Thats a no brainer. And unless Hudler has a crazy Franzen-like year, he won't make much more than he does now anyway. Now having said that, I'm not counting on Hossa sticking around, but it is possible. If Hank and Hossa are willing to take Datsyuk money, then things look good. It's not like you can't live off $6.7 million a year for multiple years

A lot of things need to happen for it to work out, but the possibility is there. I mean, if Hossa has a career year, wins the cup, and loves playing here, you think he'd be willing to take a slight cut to stick around? Of course! The guy wants to win, simple as that. If he just wanted the money, he'd be an Oiler right now. The only reason this contract is 1 year, is because the risk of losing Hank or Mule isn't worth it. They need to wait and see what happens with the cap first. I can't see the cap not going up again though, the parity in the league this season has been great, and I think it's gonna be even closer this year. The only teams I can see flat out sucking is Atlanta, Florida, and Toronto. The rest have something there to stay close in the race for at least part of the season.

[SwedeLundin77 460]

I believe Filppula will rake in about 2 million for the next 3 or 4 seasons.... Now, I also am pretty damn certain that we will most certainly be able to fit in Zetterberg at 7.45, Franzen at around 4, and Hudler around 2 and be all fine and dandy. To keep Hossa though, you'll see some roster trimming and hope that the cap rises at least 12% again. I think after next season you'll see Sammy gone for sure, although that's not too much. But Hudler will be out if it stands between us keeping Hossa or not.

I think a more realistic number for Zetterberg will be around 6.5 million since he is a class-act and Dats is going to make 6.7 for the next 6 seasons. I think Zetta will not want to make more than his buddy, and since Datsyuk is just as good defensively and puts up slightly better numbers, the argument is there for Zetterberg not to make more than 6.7 million.

Edited July 3, 2008 by SwedeLundin77

[marcaractac 3,962]

I think Hank will be talked into taking a Datsyuk-like contract, maybe a tad more. I wouldn't doubt Hossa being willing to do the same to stay with a cup contender for the rest of his prime. Mule will definitely make 4-5 million, assuming he keeps the play up this year. Even so, he could probably be talked into taking slightly less as well.