Ranking the Wings Forwards' Defensive Ability

[Guest GordieSid&Ted]

Suddenly we're agreeing. What the hell happened?!

I don't know that I could sort out the top three among those guys. But I agree with the list, especially Thornton and Iginla being down a notch or two.

We agree on alot of things. That's usually because i'm always right and you happen to agree with me, which makes you a genius as well. CONGRATULATIONS! Welcome to the genius club!

Just kidding.

For the record, you've known me long enough to know what type of hockey I enjoy. I'd KILL, I mean absolutely KILL to have somebody like Lecavalier on the Wings. I'm still a die hard fan of the old school of hockey. I'm still always going to love a guy like Jason Smith or Brendan Morrow or the old Shanny that could play the game yet punch your teeth in as well.

Alas, we'll likely never see a Lecavalier type guy on the Wings. Seriously, how depressing is that to think of. What are the odds of the Wings ever drafting a 6-3+ 220+ scoring machine that can skate like the wind, drill guys into the ground and drop the mitts to boot?

We can always dream I guess.

[egroen 384]

Number of Selke votes do not equal a player's defensive ability. Doesn't anyone watch games anymore instead of using votes and stats?

Lecavalier is a very good two way player. Tampa bay was awful last year, remember? Last place in the league. And overall they were one of the worst defensively.

I don't know for sure, but I'd bet that no one has even gotten a sniff of the Selke when they were on the worst team in the league with a terrible plus minus.

None of that means that Lecavalier is not a good defensive forward.

Uhhh... Selke voting might have something to do with a forwards defensive ability, wouldn't you think? Chicago did not make the playoffs and that certainly did not have a bearing on Sharp getting a lot of attention. There are plenty of players on bad teams who get more votes than Lecavalier each and every year. What the hell are you talking about, "Selke votes do not equal a player's defensive ability"??? Are you nuts? Are you that desperate do defend your "eyes" telling you Lecavalier is a "very good defensive forward"?

I think Lecavalier has gotten all of two votes (for 4th place) for the Selke throughout his entire career, there must be a conspiracy out there to keep him out of it.

[haroldsnepsts 4,826]

Uhhh... Selke voting might have something to do with a forwards defensive ability, wouldn't you think? Chicago did not make the playoffs and that certainly did not have a bearing on Sharp getting a lot of attention. There are plenty of players on bad teams who get more votes than Lecavalier each and every year. What the hell are you talking about, "Selke votes do not equal a player's defensive ability"??? Are you nuts? Are you that desperate do defend your "eyes" telling you Lecavalier is a "very good defensive forward"?

I think Lecavalier has gotten all of two votes (for 4th place) for the Selke throughout his entire career, there must be a conspiracy out there to keep him out of it.

Obviously selke voting has something to do with defensive ability. Do I really need to say that?

And no, I'm not nuts. I stand by what I said.

It looks like you're trying to use the number of votes received and equate that as somehow as a comparitive measure between players' defensive ability. Obviously if you get a ton of votes, you're probably good defensively.

Yes Datsyuk won the Selke this past season. how many votes did he get the season before that? Does that mean his defensive game had improved that much between the two years? Because I think Datsyuk was just as good the previous season. He just didn't get that much notice.

Ovechkin was ranked 29th in Selke voting last year. Kris Draper and Hossa were 33rd, and 35th, respectively. AO was higher in voting over those two, and also guys like Modano, Flip, and Iginla. So by your reasoning Ovechkin must be better defensively than those players? I mean, otherwise why would anyone have voted that way?

http://www.thehockeynews.com/articles/1663...NHL-Awards.html

I'd be curious to see the Selke voting for several seasons in a row, because I bet it would have players moving extremely far up and down the list, which shows there's a lot more going on than just that player's level of defensive ability.

Are you saying Lecavalier isn't a good two-way forward?

I found this article/blog that talks about exactly that issue of Selke voting.

http://www.hockeyzoneplus.com/puck021.htm

A couple examples:

the 2001 winner, John Madden, is not on the 2002 list either, and he did play that year. Madden is still an excellent checker, yet he dropped from #1 to out of the top 10 in a single year. In fact, in his rookie year (1999/2000) he was out of the top 10 as well. So he went from out of the top 10 to first to out of the top ten in successive years. His defensive prowess simply cannot have fluctuated this much. So why has his Selke ranking fluctuated this much?

The answer is, media attention. In Madden’s rookie year, he was a rookie (duh), and therefore did not receive much attention for his defensive skills.

..

Joe Sakic is another good example. He began to gain a good defensive reputation a few years ago; he finished 10th in Selke voting in 2000, when he had 81 scoring points. The following year he scored 118 points, and jumped to 2nd in the voting. Last year he fell to “only” 79 scoring points, and dropped to 9th in the Selke results. Coincidence? I think not.

Edited for clarity (hopefully)

Edited October 22, 2008 by haroldsnepsts

[egroen 384]

I've already said Lecavalier is a "somewhat above average" defensive forward (and that "very good" was way too far).

Often players do not garner a lot Selke votes until they are "noticed" by the rest of the league and media. Lecavalier (a #1 pick) does not fall into this category while someone like Datsyuk (and Madden) did. As you pointed out, often big name forwards will get a few votes thrown their way as well, in Selke voting... which makes it even more suprising Lecavalier gets so few nods.

Hossa has consistantly gotten more votes than Lecavalier, and has been on equally bad, if not worse teams some of those years.

If Lecavalier is "very good" defensively, he would be getting votes, there is no question about it. St. Louis is much better defensively than Lecavalier, and he does get votes.

And I am not looking solely at single year voting... Tampa has obviously not always been a horrible team, and still Lecavalier is left out (except for '07 when he received 2 4th place votes).

Edited October 22, 2008 by egroen

[Anomalously 0]

GS&T, you should know these statistics you pulled mean nothing.

Add hits, Ovechkin's scores increase. 220 to 40 last year. Add takeaways, Datsyuk leads 144 to 68. Similar number of blocked shots (+4 Ovechkin).

Do it for only last year, Ovechkin's plus-minus went from -19 to +28. Consider the team (because it is a team score) -- one other Washington teammate had at least half of Ovechkin's +/- last year, but four others had half of Datsyuk's totals on Detroit.

Consider TOI. Maybe Ovechkin doesn't play PK because he spends 5:40 of the powerplay and 17:16 of ES on the ice per game. He's offensively gifted to the tune of 65 goals, and that's probably the best use of his time. Does it mean he's not valuable defensively or that he's a bigger benefit to the offense than he is to the defense? (He is 3rd overall in ice time among forwards despite his PK TOI.) Sounds like a matter of the coach's philosophy as much as it might be something else.

And you say it's a huge deal that ice time separates them but not a huge deal that Ovechkin doubles Datsyuk's goal totals (while having 75% of his assists)? Using last year's numbers (career bests for both players), Ovechkin has 210% (reverse is 47%) more goals; Datsyuk has 140% (reverse is 71%) of the assists. And of course, Ovechkin has 115% more points (86% is the reverse).

Ovechkin doesn't take faceoffs, does that make him less valuable? Lidstrom doesn't take faceoffs either, no wonder the Hart voters haven't given him recognition.

Meanwhile, health is part of your equation, but it's only a factor in the other categories, and this is Datsyuk's first NHL season with 82 games. Six seasons, one 82 game year. Other years were 70, 64, 75, 75, 79. 90% of possible games. Ovechkin? 99.6%.

So there's the statistics. Ovechkin is better in ES TOI, PP TOI, GP/season, goals, points, hits, blocked shots. Datsyuk is better in PK TOI, assists, takeaways, faceoffs, plus-minus.

7-5. Ovechkin wins. He's more complete.

(I'm not making an opinion here, I'm just contending that statistics don't work in this argument.)

[haroldsnepsts 4,826]

I've already said Lecavalier is a "somewhat above average" defensive forward.

Often players do not a lot garner Selke votes until they are "noticed" by the rest of the league. Lecavalier (a #1 pick) does not fall into this category while someone like Datsyuk did. As you pointed out, often big name forwards will get a few votes thrown their way, as well, in Selke voting... which makes it even more suprising Lecavalier did not even get a nod from anyone.

Hossa has consistantly gotten more votes than Lecavalier, and has been on equally bad, if not worse teams some of those years.

If Lecavalier is "very good" defensively, he would be getting votes, there is no question about it. St. Louis is much better defensively than Lecavalier, and he does get votes.

See the link in my last post.

Selke voting has more to do than being "noticed" by the league because you're new. Yzerman, Sakic, Fedorov, Madden, Brindamour have all fluctuated wildly in Selke voting over a short number of years. And those are well established players in the league. Their defensive play did not fluctuate wildly from season to season. Selke voting is as much about the hype as it is about defensively ability. Draper has been great defensively since he's been with the Wings and was a well established player, but didn't win one until he scored 24 goals.

Do you have a link to voting totals over the years? I'd be curious to see the totals for guys from season to season.

Edited October 22, 2008 by haroldsnepsts

[egroen 384]

The guys at Hfboards have done a good job of compiling a lot of the awards and voting:

http://hfboards.com/showthread.php?t=145895&page=5

The voting of course fluctuates from season to season, which is why I am not looking at just one season. Lecavalier is a known player and was from the second he was drafted #1. If he was "very good" defensively, he would be getting a lot more votes, especially considering the fact that having good offensive numbers admittedly helps your Selke vote getting. I think your article is only helping my point, honestly.

Edited October 22, 2008 by egroen

[therock48880 14]

I think we're lucky to be able to have an argument like the one taking place in this thread. Both Dats and Z are phenomenal all around players and which one is slightly better than the other seems irrelevant to me. (although I'd give Dats a VERY slight edge). Then, you throw Hossa, Draper, Franzen, Cleary, etc... into the argument and it becomes clear how lucky we, as Wings fans, are.

Here's my list:

1a. Dats

1b. Z

3. Hossa

4. Draper

5. Everyone else except Hudler and Homer who are battling for the bottom.

[egroen 384]

Hossa's defensive play is getting overrated around here. I do not think he is better at all than Franzen and Draper, and is more on par with Filppula and Cleary.

[dicksmack 33]

See the link in my last post.

Selke voting has more to do than being "noticed" by the league because you're new. Yzerman, Sakic, Fedorov, Madden, Brindamour have all fluctuated wildly in Selke voting over a short number of years. And those are well established players in the league. Their defensive play did not fluctuate wildly from season to season. Selke voting is as much about the hype as it is about defensively ability. Draper has been great defensively since he's been with the Wings and was a well established player, but didn't win one until he scored 24 goals.

Do you have a link to voting totals over the years? I'd be curious to see the totals for guys from season to season.

Very good point.

So last year, it was Dats' absurd takeaway count and +/- (more than Lidstrom) that got him noticed... That's probably true, and I think that attention allowed a lot writers to have a chance to see the more subtle aspects of his defensive game: like the perfect line changes, the low risk situations he attacks in, the dangling his way to safety on defense, the counter-attacks that eat up pk time or draw penalties, the faceoff wins, and the uncanny way he wins puck battles, even while out-numbered.

But ya know who is renowned for separating guys from the puck with the stick?

Lidstrom. Takeaways, like positioning, are a core ability of hockey defense. I think he deserved the Selke.

[hamip1998 3]

Sorry...posted by mistake

Edited October 22, 2008 by hamip1998

[eva unit zero 271]

that's the heart of it. have you been hanging out with eva?

Because you've made questionable statements based on misuse of statistics.

EXCUSE THE f*** OUT OF ME?

[Anomalously 0]

EXCUSE THE f*** OUT OF ME?

Would this qualify as a misuse of statistics?

[haroldsnepsts 4,826]

Edited because I'm a dick.

Edited October 23, 2008 by haroldsnepsts

[Icesurfer 75]

Wow...... Did this thread get out of hand or what????

This thread is suppose to be about the forward's defensive ability and everyone is talking about goals!!!!

HELLO!

Anyway, I recalculated the list leaving out the HITS.... since hits may or may not play a role in a forward's defensive ability.

So here is the new list. Datsyuk is still by far and away the best defensive forward on the team. And probably why he won the Selke.

Pavel Datsyuk - 72

Marian Hossa – 56

Henrik Zetterberg - 50

Johan Franzen - 50

Valtteri Filppula - 50

Kris Draper - 44

Dan Cleary - 38

Mikael Samuelsson – 30

Jiri Hudler – 26

Kirk Maltby – 22

Tomas Kopecky – 16

Tomas Holmstrom - 14

So Zetterberg came up higher on the list but still is not as good as Datsyuk or Hossa especially when you are talking about takeaways and blocked shots. Most fans have not seen enough of Hossa to realize that he is also very good on defense. Maltby dropped lower on the list..... so if it wasn't for his PK ability he probably would have been gone. Hudler came up on the list because he does have takeaway ability. Homer is homer..... he does was he does..... he is our "rear-end" net crasher specialist and we all love him...... but now I know why Bowman had him on the fourth line and mostly got just PP time. Good thing Homer is paired with the 2 best defensive forwards on the team.....LOL.

[jawbreaker 0]

— Pavel Datsyuk has to be the best player in hockey right now. (Red Wings Corner)

[blikst 1]

Has anyone tried to do a simular statistical analysis with defensemen league wide? I would think it could be quite difficult to show Lidströms superior defensive abilities to show up in the statistics. Correct me if I'm wrong.

[Stevie Y 0]

speaking about the best / most complete player in the league. How many Hart votes did Pav and Z get last year?

[egroen 384]

speaking about the best / most complete player in the league...

What does the Hart have to do with that?

[Stevie Y 0]

What does the Hart have to do with that?

well if somebody argues that Pav is the best player in the league dont you think that he should be a serious consideration for the Hart?

[eva unit zero 271]

well if somebody argues that Pav is the best player in the league dont you think that he should be a serious consideration for the Hart?

The Hart is awarded for the Most Valuable Player to his team, not the best player. There is a big difference.

For players like Zetterberg, Datsyuk, and Lidstrom, who all play with two other elite-level players...it is difficult to consider them valuable than a guy like Ovechkin who is in the same range of talent but does not have anyone else on his team near his talent level.

You could argue one of Z, D, or Lids as better than Ovechkin. But none are more valuable than Ovechkin at this point. The Wings can lose one of them and still have two elite level players that can singlehandedly carry the team. The Caps win and lose most of their games based on Ovechkin's performance that night.

[Stevie Y 0]

The Hart is awarded for the Most Valuable Player to his team, not the best player. There is a big difference.

For players like Zetterberg, Datsyuk, and Lidstrom, who all play with two other elite-level players...it is difficult to consider them valuable than a guy like Ovechkin who is in the same range of talent but does not have anyone else on his team near his talent level.

You could argue one of Z, D, or Lids as better than Ovechkin. But none are more valuable than Ovechkin at this point. The Wings can lose one of them and still have two elite level players that can singlehandedly carry the team. The Caps win and lose most of their games based on Ovechkin's performance that night.

I know that this is the title of the Hart trophy. However, Sakic won it with Forsberg in the same line up and vice versa (or was one of the injured in that season). Lemieux won it with Jagr in the same line up (who had an incredible season that year). So I would say that it is quite possible for a player to win the Hart even if he is not the only superstar in his team

[egroen 384]

well if somebody argues that Pav is the best player in the league dont you think that he should be a serious consideration for the Hart?

They should be in consideration, but by no means does that mean they are going to run away with an award for the "player judged to be the most valuable to his team".

Both Pavel and Hank placed in the top ten in votes, which is not bad, especially considering Lidstrom was also 4th. The Wings are lucky enough to have three of the best overall players in the league right now, but because of that, it is easy to see why a single one of them is not winning the "Most Valuable" trophy.

[superstarsingh 23]

Hossa's defensive play is getting overrated around here. I do not think he is better at all than Franzen and Draper, and is more on par with Filppula and Cleary.

I have to agree with this. Filppula is a very strong defensive player and I do not think he is getting much credit for it here.

[egroen 384]

So I would say that it is quite possible for a player to win the Hart even if he is not the only superstar in his team

It certainly is, especially when one has a clearly better season than the other, as in the cases you listed, plus Malkin and Crosby last year.

But is that the case between Datsyuk, Zettberg and Lidstrom last year? You won't even find close to a 100% consensus amongst Red Wings fans, let alone media throughout the rest of the league. If one of those three clearly had a better season than the rest, I have a feeling that one would have finaled for the Hart last year.

Edited October 23, 2008 by egroen