Hindsight is 20/20

[YoungGuns1340 1]

Just a quick note- it's been aluded to that the cap will go down this next year (by professional hockey writers no less). That's wrong.

The cap for next year is pretty much set. It's based on the previous year's earnings, which have been fairly constant (although nothing's shot up). The global economic crisis will more than likely drop the 2010/2011 cap, not next year's.

On top of that, the PA's been holding more player money in escrow for just this situation, and has the option of boosting the cap by 5%.

The odds of the cap dropping this season are very, very low. The odds of the cap dropping for the season after next are pretty damn good.

1. The economic crisis didn't start this year.

2. Its not just sports writers. Holland actively voiced his concern for the cap ceiling falling tonight - a man who surrounds himself with capologists.

[Drake_Marcus 890]

1. The economic crisis didn't start this year.

2. Its not just sports writers. Holland actively voiced his concern for the cap ceiling falling tonight - a man who surrounds himself with capologists.

The effects of the economic crisis as far as professional sports is concerned certainly started this year. The primary revenue sources through which the cap is determined were secured before October. According to the PA and NHL head offices the cap won't drop more than about a million bucks.

To quote the Globe and Mail "NHL commissioner Gary Bettman has been saying for months that next season's salary cap, which is based on this season's revenue, will either stay the same or drop only a small amount from this year's $56.7-million. Much of this season's revenue, from season-ticket holders, broadcast contracts, suiteholders and sponsors was collected before the economy really hit the skids in the fall."

And as far as Holland's concerns- as I said before, the cap most certainly stands a good chance of dropping after next season, and since Holland doesn't sign every player to a one year contract, I can certainly see why he's concerned.

[YoungGuns1340 1]

The effects of the economic crisis as far as professional sports is concerned certainly started this year. The primary revenue sources through which the cap is determined were secured before October. According to the PA and NHL head offices the cap won't drop more than about a million bucks.

To quote the Globe and Mail "NHL commissioner Gary Bettman has been saying for months that next season's salary cap, which is based on this season's revenue, will either stay the same or drop only a small amount from this year's $56.7-million. Much of this season's revenue, from season-ticket holders, broadcast contracts, suiteholders and sponsors was collected before the economy really hit the skids in the fall."

And as far as Holland's concerns- as I said before, the cap most certainly stands a good chance of dropping after next season, and since Holland doesn't sign every player to a one year contract, I can certainly see why he's concerned.

Then you and I aren't saying much different. As of now, I know the NHLPA is anticipating a reduction of only a few percent overall in HRR, which translates like you said into a potential hundred K or a million bucks. My point is that that sort of reduction DOES affect the Wings, and Filppulas 3M is going to look really nasty (as are a lot of contracts) when the cap could drop well below 50M in the next 1.5 years alone. But theres also rumors that the NHL and NHLPA might throw the cap out the window if the circumstances get that rough.

[Konnan511 1,736]

I don't think so. He isn't putting up great numbers this season, but he went from playing second line minutes and PP/PK time to playing third line minutes with little to no time on the PP after the signing of Hossa. He's a good two-way center with a lot of talent. It was a risk, but I suspect it will be viewed as a very good deal before too long.

My exact sentiments. He gets like something around 3 seconds on the PP. PLay 3rd line minutes sin't going to allow you to put up points when you get no PP time as well. Next year when Hossa is gone he'll be getting 2nd line minutes and second unit PP time and will put up at least 50 points.

[YoungGuns1340 1]

Okay, lets say we have it your way and move Fil and his 3 mil contract. That's 56 million and our cap is 55 million... + you need to replace Fil's roster spot, so you need to add 750k to put a griffin in there. That's almost 57 million. Still doesn't work....

For a math major AND a broker, you sure don't like to work out the numbers.

Consider this:

Franzen (3.6) - Datsyuk (6.7) - Homer (2.25)

Hudler (2.75) - Hank (7.2) - Leino (.875)

Cleary (2.85) - Helm (.6) - Abdelkader (.85)

Maltby (.88) - Draper (1.58) - Kopay (.6)

Downey (.5)

Lidstrom (7.45) - Raffi (6)

Kronwall (3) - Stuart (3.75)

Lilja (1.2) - Ericsson (.9)

Meech (.5)

Osgood (1.4)

Howard (.71)

Total: 55.645

To begin with, its a very solid cap number to be at for next year, and you aren't entirely depleting your offensive firepower. Also, Holland mentioned tonight that he was talking short term and long-term with Zetterberg. Knowing Holland hes going to exhaust his resources in terms of, well, terms. You could also probably get Hudler to sign a one year deal with the intention of offering more once Lidstroms salary (or most of it) is off the books.

Not to mention, with a little more flexibility, the Wings could even go after a guy like Neil, who would probably only cost 1M after his rough season statistically, and hold off promoting Abdelkader who, IMO, still needs some time to develop.

[YoungGuns1340 1]

My exact sentiments. He gets like something around 3 seconds on the PP. PLay 3rd line minutes sin't going to allow you to put up points when you get no PP time as well. Next year when Hossa is gone he'll be getting 2nd line minutes and second unit PP time and will put up at least 50 points.

By the same token, it says a lot that Babcock opts to go with Filppula as the 9th option for forwards on this team to get PP time. If Babs thought Flip was more offensively capable than guys like Cleary and Hudler, he'd be out there on the PP.

[norrisnick 1]

My exact sentiments. He gets like something around 3 seconds on the PP. PLay 3rd line minutes sin't going to allow you to put up points when you get no PP time as well. Next year when Hossa is gone he'll be getting 2nd line minutes and second unit PP time and will put up at least 50 points.

Doubt it. Sure he's not seeing 1:30 of PP TOI he saw last year, but even if we lose Hossa, Fil shouldn't be the first option to step in. Cleary is getting next to no PP time as well, and IMO he's ahead of Fil on the offensive ability depth chart. So Fil will remain 7th at best unless we lose an extra forward, but I forsee us being able to hang on to Z, Franzen, and Hudler. With Pavel, Homer, and Cleary already locked up, that's our 6 PP forwards. He might get mop up duty now and then or fill in minutes for injuries or blowouts, but anything far beyond 1:00 of PP time is just wishful thinking.

As for everything else, Fil IS getting 2nd line minutes. With the exception of PP time he's getting almost the same sort of minutes Pavel and Hossa are getting.

[LeDs 0]

Hindsight? We haven't even had time to look back yet. lol.

Filppula is a solid two way center. Good on face offs. Solid penalty killer. He has upside offensively, he is only 24. Last year during the playoffs when it was all on the line he delivered. If he was playing on the top two lines he would have much better numbers.

Compare him to Datsyuk and Zetterburg at the same age. Zetterburg was playing for Timra in Sweden and Datsyuk had about the same numbers.

If Holland made a mistake it was by signing Hossa. By signing Hossa we had to put off signing Zetterburg, Franzen and Hudler. The way Franzen and Hudler are playing this may have been a big mistake. But if we win the cup again. Holland is brilliant.

[norrisnick 1]

Hindsight? We haven't even had time to look back yet. lol.

Filppula is a solid two way center. Good on face offs. Solid penalty killer. He has upside offensively, he is only 24. Last year during the playoffs when it was all on the line he delivered. If he was playing on the top two lines he would have much better numbers.

Compare him to Datsyuk and Zetterburg at the same age. Zetterburg was playing for Timra in Sweden and Datsyuk had about the same numbers.

If Holland made a mistake it was by signing Hossa. By signing Hossa we had to put off signing Zetterburg, Franzen and Hudler. The way Franzen and Hudler are playing this may have been a big mistake. But if we win the cup again. Holland is brilliant.

You fail to mention that Zetterberg was playing in Timra at 24 because there was a lockout. He led the SEL in scoring that year btw. He'd already put up a pair of 40+ point seasons in the NHL at the height of the clutch and grab era.

[Zune 0]

Flip has shown that he can play the role of a second line center. Let Zetterberg walk and stick Flip on a line with Franzen and Hossa.

Holmstrom-Datsyuk-Hudler

Franzen-Flip-Hossa

Call up Helm to play on the third line with Cleary and Samuelsson and you'll have an insanely balanced lineup that can fit under the cap.

Unless Z takes Datsyuk money or Lidstrom retires after this season, signing Zetterberg will gut this team financially. AKA back to the days of Datsyuk-Zetterberg-Holmstrom and no secondary scoring to speak of.

[FinRedWing 172]

So,if he becomes a hockey messiah who's getting paid $3 million,only then it's not a mistake?

Edited December 31, 2008 by FinRedWing

[Aussie_Wing 354]

Filppula is just in the unfortunate situation of being a redundant player on the Red Wings team.

Too bad Holland, Babcock and co don't see it this way. I bet he's not seen as redundant by the guys that matter. Hoenstly, what a rubbish post.

We have plenty of players more effective than him defensively, both younger & older and plenty of players more effective than him offensively both younger & older.... plus players in the minors who may have just as much, if not more potential than him.

I’m actually interested in knowing who these players are you are referring too?

Zetterberg, Clearly, Franzen and Datsyuk are all players who could be considered greater defensive players than Flip, however are all older. Who are the younger ones you speak of? Helm? He's hardly done enough to prove whether that's right or wrong, I doubt he's even seen a minute of time on the PK when he's been with the Wings.

Players in the minors are just that, players in the minors. Everyone knows we lack prospects with high end offensive potential, maybe only Dick Axelsson and Cory Emmerton are guys that could have higher offensive ceilings that Flip. However the former has had more off-ice issues this season and the latter has been a healthy scratch in the AHL. Both are years away. So really, you're just clutching at straws. Flip is on track to just about match his point totals from last season, about what was expected really considering he's playing on the 3rd line as opposed to the 2nd from 2007/08, and he no longer sees any time on the PP. We all know he lifts his game for the playoffs and he's got another 4 years after this one to prove to everyone that he deserved the contract he got. I'm confident he will.

[egroen 384]

Too bad Holland, Babcock and co don't see it this way. I bet he's not seen as redundant by the guys that matter. Hoenstly, what a rubbish post.

I’m actually interested in knowing who these players are you are referring too?

Zetterberg, Clearly, Franzen and Datsyuk are all players who could be considered greater defensive players than Flip, however are all older. Who are the younger ones you speak of? Helm? He's hardly done enough to prove whether that's right or wrong, I doubt he's even seen a minute of time on the PK when he's been with the Wings.

Players in the minors are just that, players in the minors. Everyone knows we lack prospects with high end offensive potential, maybe only Dick Axelsson and Cory Emmerton are guys that could have higher offensive ceilings that Flip. However the former has had more off-ice issues this season and the latter has been a healthy scratch in the AHL. Both are years away. So really, you're just clutching at straws. Flip is on track to just about match his point totals from last season, about what was expected really considering he's playing on the 3rd line as opposed to the 2nd from 2007/08, and he no longer sees any time on the PP. We all know he lifts his game for the playoffs and he's got another 4 years after this one to prove to everyone that he deserved the contract he got. I'm confident he will.

By your own admission, Filppula could be considered the 5th best defensive forward on this team, 6th if you count Draper. Yet he currently makes more than all but Datsyuk. All the players you mentioned are 30 or younger and are better offensively than Filppula as well.

As an offensive forward where do you rank him? Behind Zetterberg, Datsyuk, Franzen, Hudler, Cleary, Samuelsson - yet he is currently paid more than all but Datsyuk.

Yes, he is redundant. And he makes too much money right now for a team that wants to win the Cup each year and not sit back and wait on potential. Filppula's contract may be a great deal in 4-5 years, but I do not want to lose someone proven like Franzen or even Hudler to sit around and hope for it. That is what is comes down to - keeping young and already better players in the system over potential.

If Flip remains on the team, you will lose Hudler and you very well may lose Franzen as well. That makes my choice easy.

I would rather pay Helm, Leino, Abdelkader under a million to wait and hope on potential over paying Filppula $3 million to do essentially the same thing.

Edited December 31, 2008 by egroen

[NeverForgetMac25 483]

It's just too early to tell. While right now its not looking so great, based on the length of his contract he's got plenty of time to prove it was worth it and then some.

Sidenote: His pass to Kopecky last night was sick!

[ArcticWing 0]

This pretty much sums it up!

[egroen 384]

Last I have read, there is a decent chance the cap goes up 2% for next year -- that would be a big help.

The year after is when it could stay the same or actually decrease, but Lidstrom's contract ending will possibly give a lot of flexibility at that time. I would be suprised to see Lidstrom demand over $7 million after next year.

[lets go pavel 2]

Flip has shown that he can play the role of a second line center. Let Zetterberg walk and stick Flip on a line with Franzen and Hossa.

Holmstrom-Datsyuk-Hudler

Franzen-Flip-Hossa

Call up Helm to play on the third line with Cleary and Samuelsson and you'll have an insanely balanced lineup that can fit under the cap.

Unless Z takes Datsyuk money or Lidstrom retires after this season, signing Zetterberg will gut this team financially. AKA back to the days of Datsyuk-Zetterberg-Holmstrom and no secondary scoring to speak of.

What makes you think Hossa will sign for less than Z? Your pretty quick to dump Z for financial reasons when re-signing Hossa will very possibly be even more expensive ...

[FedorovGurl 2]

"Don't sign Hudler" ???!!!!!

Did I read that? Really?

No, I must have been imagining it.

(I would go back and check but my eyes might start to bleed)

[cnot19 191]

RIght now I would put yes but time can change everything He is one of the only player Ive ever seen who does not hit on the forecheck He always stops right in fornt of the player and pokechecks

[GMRwings1983 8,794]

The fact that he's not scoring is not surprising, unless he was a regular on the top 2 lines.

I think the thing to remember is that next year Hossa will be gone, and we don't know yet about Hank and Mule. At that point, Flip will become more important to this team. However, there's still no telling how he'll perform then.

[GoWings1905 2,694]

Flip has shown that he can play the role of a second line center. Let Zetterberg walk and stick Flip on a line with Franzen and Hossa.

Holmstrom-Datsyuk-Hudler

Franzen-Flip-Hossa

Call up Helm to play on the third line with Cleary and Samuelsson and you'll have an insanely balanced lineup that can fit under the cap.

Unless Z takes Datsyuk money or Lidstrom retires after this season, signing Zetterberg will gut this team financially. AKA back to the days of Datsyuk-Zetterberg-Holmstrom and no secondary scoring to speak of.

How would keeping Hossa over Z be any different financially?

[cusimano_brothers 1,655]

Here's some math on Kenneth Mark Holland's record as General Manager of the DRW, going into this season:

10 seasons,

3 Stanley Cups.

Only John James Adams had more: 7, in36 seasons.

Things will work out. They usually do.

[VM1138 1,921]

Interesting Flip vs. Hudler stat:

Hossa and Datsyuk are considered as being on the same level, and are 5 points apart.

Hudler is 5 points behind Hossa. I'd say Hudler is blossoming much faster and better than Flip is.

[egroen 384]

And Hudler has more production per minute than every forward in the NHL, except Malkin.