How Zetterberg's new cap hit affects the new roster

[Drake_Marcus 890]

Using a spread sheet I put together a few weekends ago to look at the possible re-signings this offseason I've done some calculations on just what the team could look like in 09/10.

First things first, I cut some fat:

--> Kopecky, Conklin and Downey were released as FA (Downey or Kopecky could be retained, but we'll look at that later).

--> Chelios retires and is added to the training staff to mentor the younger d-men

--> McCarty retires or is released

--> Lebda is waived or traded (unless Meech is given the same treatment, I kept him for his age, versatility and slight upside)

Next I brought up some kids (because that HAS to happen regardless of the scenario):

--> Ericsson is brought up (no more minor league options left, he's already NHL ready and has impressed in his call-ups)

--> Howard is brought up to backup Ozzy (no more minor league options left, if he isn't brought up he'll be traded and Larsson will end up coming up)

--> Helm is brought up (he's ready and he's cheap)

--> Leino is re-signed at the same price and brought up (he's really good and he WILL walk if he doesn't get a roster spot- he's waited longer for the Wings than he would have to with nearly any other club)

Roster without major re-signings but with these changes:

Zetterberg - Datsyuk - Holmstrom

Leino - Filppula - Cleary

Helm - Draper - Maltby

? - ? - ?

Lidstrom - Rafalski

Kronwall - Stuart

Lilja - Ericsson (that's a tall, heavy pairing)

Meech

Osgood

Howard

Cash left (assuming a static cap): $6,962,223

So here's where I got creative:

I convinced Leino to take $75,000 less in exchange for term and a 1 way, front ended contract:

4 years: $1,200,000 - $800,000 - $600,000 - $600,000 (maybe some performance dependent renegotiation capacity that benefits him, if that's possible under the CBA)

Cap hit: $800,000

Next I did the same thing for Hudler that Holland did with Zetterberg. This one might be tougher because Hudler has more potential to become a better player than Zetterberg (since one is already a 92 pt scoring, selke nominated, playoff MVP that's good for 40 goals a season).

8 years: $8,000,000 - $4,000,000 - $2,000,000 - $1,000,000 - $750,000 - $750,000 - $750,000 - $750,000

Cap hit: $2,250,000

This deal is very, very, very front loaded with a minimum payout for half the contract so I'm not sure how well it would be received in real life.

Franzen gets the same treatment. Because his agent is very tough to deal with this is a really tough sale to make, but if Z could sign for $6.08 million Mule might take this contract.

8 years: $10,000,000 - $8,000,000 - $4,000,000 - $3,000,000 - $1,750,000 - $1,750,000 - $1,750,000 - $1,750,000

Cap hit: $4,000,000

Same caveat here as with Hudler.

So here's where it got easier. I only had $787,223 left to sign one more player while still giving the cap room to float a bit below the predicted static value. Kopecky or Downey could be retained... or we could just take the best person at camp. Note that Abdelkader would bring the Wings too close to the cap.

I assumed that Ritola played his way into a spot in camp (based on his performance in this year's camp and his very, very good +/- last year and this year in GR (he was outstanding last year in +/- on a club full of minus players). He's also dirt cheap (just over $500,000), strong, versatile and a hard worker.

The price of this team? $56,424,444, leaving a cushion of only $275,556.

The drawback? 4 rookies is hard to imagine on a Detroit Red Wings squad. However, I should stress that two players have to come up next season- they're out of options and among the top 6 RW prospects. One more guy is in the top 5 and will split if he can't play in the NHL since he's already put a year in the minors in after moving here as the reigning Finnish top-tier league MVP. So the only real leap of faith is that they'll take Ritola instead of a vet. Fair enough- you can fit Kopecky or some one else in with the remaining money.

So here's my final roster for all this yammering:

Zetterberg - Datsyuk - Holmstrom

Franzen - Filppula - Hudler

Cleary - Helm - Leino

Ritola - Draper - Maltby (two right wings, I know, but whatever, sort the lines how you will)

Lidstrom - Rafalski

Kronwall - Stuart

Lilja - Ericsson

Meech

Osgood

Howard

Lost: Hossa, Samuelsson, Kopecky, Lebda, Chelios, McCarty, Conklin and Downey.

Added: Helm, Leino, Ericsson, Howard and Ritola.

Edited January 29, 2009 by Drake_Marcus

[lets go pavel 2]

Next I did the same thing for Hudler that Holland did with Zetterberg. This one might be tougher because Hudler has more potential to become a better player than Zetterberg (since one is already a 92 pt scoring, selke nominated, playoff MVP that's good for 40 goals a season).

8 years: $8,000,000 - $4,000,000 - $2,000,000 - $1,000,000 - $750,000 - $750,000 - $750,000 - $750,000

Cap hit: $2,250,000

This deal is very, very, very front loaded with a minimum payout for half the contract so I'm not sure how well it would be received in real life.

Franzen gets the same treatment. Because his agent is very tough to deal with this is a really tough sale to make, but if Z could sign for $6.08 million Mule might take this contract.

8 years: $10,000,000 - $8,000,000 - $4,000,000 - $3,000,000 - $1,750,000 - $1,750,000 - $1,750,000 - $1,750,000

Cap hit: $4,000,000

Same caveat here as with Hudler.

I think you've already acknowledged the problem. Hudler is 24, he has at least 10 years of prime earning potential in front of him. Granted, the first 2 years are ridiculously high, but I'm not sure he'd go for that. Franzen is 29, you might have better luck with him. I wonder how much the player's would value a contract that is front-loaded to such an extreme? Looking at Z's, most of th eyears are pretty balanced until the very end ...

[Casey 145]

I don't like getting rid of Conk. Howard has had his chance and has shown nothing at the NHL level.

[Statts 4]

I don't like getting rid of Conk. Howard has had his chance and has shown nothing at the NHL level.

You call 8 games giving someone a chance??

[brubs42 0]

Using a spread sheet I put together a few weekends ago to look at the possible re-signings this offseason I've done some calculations on just what the team could look like in 09/10.

First things first, I cut some fat:

--> Kopecky, Conklin and Downey were released as FA (Downey or Kopecky could be retained, but we'll look at that later).

--> Chelios retires and is added to the training staff to mentor the younger d-men

--> McCarty retires or is released

--> Lebda is waived or traded (unless Meech is given the same treatment, I kept him for his age, versatility and slight upside)

Next I brought up some kids (because that HAS to happen regardless of the scenario):

--> Ericsson is brought up (no more minor league options left, he's already NHL ready and has impressed in his call-ups)

--> Howard is brought up to backup Ozzy (no more minor league options left, if he isn't brought up he'll be traded and Larsson will end up coming up)

--> Helm is brought up (he's ready and he's cheap)

--> Leino is re-signed at the same price and brought up (he's really good and he WILL walk if he doesn't get a roster spot- he's waited longer for the Wings than he would have to with nearly any other club)

Roster without major re-signings but with these changes:

Zetterberg - Datsyuk - Holmstrom

Leino - Filppula - Cleary

Helm - Draper - Maltby

? - ? - ?

Lidstrom - Rafalski

Kronwall - Stuart

Lilja - Ericsson (that's a tall, heavy pairing)

Meech

Osgood

Howard

Cash left (assuming a static cap): $6,962,223

So here's where I got creative:

I convinced Leino to take $75,000 less in exchange for term and a 1 way, front ended contract:

4 years: $1,200,000 - $800,000 - $600,000 - $600,000 (maybe some performance dependent renegotiation capacity that benefits him, if that's possible under the CBA)

Cap hit: $800,000

Next I did the same thing for Hudler that Holland did with Zetterberg. This one might be tougher because Hudler has more potential to become a better player than Zetterberg (since one is already a 92 pt scoring, selke nominated, playoff MVP that's good for 40 goals a season).

8 years: $8,000,000 - $4,000,000 - $2,000,000 - $1,000,000 - $750,000 - $750,000 - $750,000 - $750,000

Cap hit: $2,250,000

This deal is very, very, very front loaded with a minimum payout for half the contract so I'm not sure how well it would be received in real life.

Franzen gets the same treatment. Because his agent is very tough to deal with this is a really tough sale to make, but if Z could sign for $6.08 million Mule might take this contract.

8 years: $10,000,000 - $8,000,000 - $4,000,000 - $3,000,000 - $1,750,000 - $1,750,000 - $1,750,000 - $1,750,000

Cap hit: $4,000,000

Same caveat here as with Hudler.

So here's where it got easier. I only had $787,223 left to sign one more player while still giving the cap room to float a bit below the predicted static value. Kopecky or Downey could be retained... or we could just take the best person at camp. Note that Abdelkader would bring the Wings too close to the cap.

I assumed that Ritola played his way into a spot in camp (based on his performance in this year's camp and his very, very good +/- last year and this year in GR (he was outstanding last year in +/- on a club full of minus players). He's also dirt cheap (just over $500,000), strong, versatile and a hard worker.

The price of this team? $56,424,444, leaving a cushion of only $275,556.

The drawback? 4 rookies is hard to imagine on a Detroit Red Wings squad. However, I should stress that two players have to come up next season- they're out of options and among the top 6 RW prospects. One more guy is in the top 5 and will split if he can't play in the NHL since he's already put a year in the minors in after moving here as the reigning Finnish top-tier league MVP. So the only real leap of faith is that they'll take Ritola instead of a vet. Fair enough- you can fit Kopecky or some one else in with the remaining money.

So here's my final roster for all this yammering:

Zetterberg - Datsyuk - Holmstrom

Franzen - Filppula - Hudler

Cleary - Helm - Leino

Ritola - Draper - Maltby (two right wings, I know, but whatever, sort the lines how you will)

Lidstrom - Rafalski

Kronwall - Stuart

Lilja - Ericsson

Meech

Osgood

Howard

Lost: Hossa, Samuelsson, Kopecky, Lebda, Chelios, McCarty, Conklin and Downey.

Added: Helm, Leino, Ericsson, Howard and Ritola.

There's no way Franzen signs a deal like that... biggest reason being that nobody will get paid more than Lidstrom's 7.45 million. Even Zetterberg's new contract only pays 7.4, just below Lidstrom. However, in my opinion Franzen isn't worth that kind of deal. He should be making between 4-5 million a year, not more (I know it averages out in your model, but it just isn't realistic). He is a great hockey player with tons of potential, and I agree at the end of the day he should be locked up for around a 4 million cap hit, but he won't get that kind of front loaded deal.

[WingNut 25 5]

Good thoughts but not realistic and I'm all about keeping Hossa. He wants to stay and he's more valuable than Franzen.

[Drake_Marcus 890]

I don't like getting rid of Conk. Howard has had his chance and has shown nothing at the NHL level.

We have to. Howard represents an organizational investment and is one of their blue-chip prospects. In the games he played in the NHL he actually impressed. His stats weren't fantastic in terms of wins but he looked very good for a call-up goalie. On top of all that- you just don't give up on a goalie that quickly. They take a ton of time to develop and are notorious for being streaky. Howard has the potential to be a franchise goalie- he has periods of amazing dominance and is considered one of the elite goaltending prospects in the AHL.

I'm getting tired of him to, but that's mostly because Larsson is so damn impressive (tied for the lead in shutouts, among the league leaders in all stat categories).

[Guest DetroitBoy313]

The NHL salary cap. :battle:

[ruarc' 2]

I don't like getting rid of Conk. Howard has had his chance and has shown nothing at the NHL level.

Sorry?

There was little more he could have done. J-HO played fine during his call up, I wouldn't write him off just yet.

BTW, I LOVE "HOT EXCEL ACTION"!

[Drake_Marcus 890]

Sorry?

There was little more he could have done. J-HO played fine during his call up, I wouldn't write him off just yet.

BTW, I LOVE "HOT EXCEL ACTION"!

Hahaha thanks Making spreadsheets for non-work related stuff is surprisingly enjoyable if you like playing with numbers for fantasy hockey teams!

[Casey 145]

You call 8 games giving someone a chance??

He's not even the team leader in wins, shutouts or GAA, on an AHL team. In his last 2 complete seasons in the AHL, he's sub-0.500. To say he's ready right now to jump to the NHL is a bit premature, to say the least.