Who signs 1st?

[russianswede919293 95]

To people writing Lilja off the team...don't count on it. He is the best penalty killer on the team.

I honestly think IF there is a trade to free up space it is Cleary.

[Dabura 12,207]

Man.

Some people really don't like Hossa.

[russianswede919293 95]

Man.

Some people really don't like Hossa.

I think he comes back next year as long as he doesn't go higher than 6.5 million.

[Dabura 12,207]

I see him coming back, and I don't see it ravaging the team.

[Datsyerberger 279]

Man.

Some people really don't like Hossa.

No, they just don't like being wrong.

[Yzersyukstromberg 0]

Franzen will sign first for 3 years at approx 2.5 mil per year.

Hossa will sign after we win the Cup for 2 or 3 years at 7.5 to 8 mil per year !

I think Filppula or Cleary's days may be numbered in order to keep the core of the team together going forward !!

No offense, but this is way off.

There's now way in hell Franzen will sign for $2.5 million/yr. He's 29 years old, and coming in to the prime of his career. This will be (maybe) his only chance to cash in big time. He's going to take advantage of it. Plus, his agent is a proven douchebag, and was difficult enough to deal with in negotiating his last contract...there's no chance he'll let him sign for that little. He's going to see offers in the ballpark of $5 million/yr elsewhere.

As for Hossa, I guarantee you that there is absolutely no chance at all that the Red Wings will offer Hossa a contact for that kind of money. First, it won't fit the cap situation, and second, they just paid one of their 'home grown' superstars an average of $6.08 million over 12 years...why would they even consider giving Hossa an extra $1.5-2 million above that?? Makes no sense. That would be an insult to both Pavel and Hank, both of whom have done more for this team.

I wouldn't write off Dan Cleary. He's just signed a nice contract extension, and he's proven to be very valuable to the Wings, on the PK, second PP and some very solid minutes even strength. He's going nowhere.

Filppula could be solid trade bait, but the organization is very high on him, so I'd be surprised if they let him go elsewhere, via trade, unless they were forced to move him because of cap restrictions.

[Datsyerberger 279]

To people writing Lilja off the team...don't count on it. He is the best penalty killer on the team.

I honestly think IF there is a trade to free up space it is Cleary.

Lilja is a great PKer, but you're missing them thurrr Lidstrom and Zetterberg guys.

Seriously though, there are players I'd rather see traded than Lilja (Cleary is one of them, though his NTC makes that difficult), but with a top 6 of Lidstrom, Rafalski, Kronwall, Ericsson, Stuart, and Lebda without him, I see him as one of the most likely candidates.

[Dabura 12,207]

Just being a little facetious.

[russianswede919293 95]

I see him coming back, and I don't see it ravaging the team.

Me either. Hossa is doing the Wings a favor by coming back at 6.5 million (Between Hank and Datsyuk). That will only make the team better. In fact if he takes that salary he is taking a pay cut after this year, which was his best season in a long time.

Franzen is the one of the two that needs to realize what his value is and not hurt the team cap-wise. Yes he scores goals and is a big power forward hot commodity, but he doesn't get assists. Period. That being said that detracts from his value. I see him as a 3.5 million dollar guy in Detroit. Him at 3.5 and Hossa at 6.5 with a trade of Cleary makes the team very good in terms of skill and finances. In fact Hossa's pay cut would cover half of Franzen's raise...

[russianswede919293 95]

Lilja is a great PKer, but you're missing them thurrr Lidstrom and Zetterberg guys.

Seriously though, there are players I'd rather see traded than Lilja (Cleary is one of them, though his NTC makes that difficult), but with a top 6 of Lidstrom, Rafalski, Kronwall, Ericsson, Stuart, and Lebda without him, I see him as one of the most likely candidates.

Lilja is the best shot blocker on the team...that and his ability to clear the crease make him the best penalty killer on the team in my opinion.

[Datsyerberger 279]

Just being a little facetious.

Well hey Dab, I know when I've got you on my side against a matter of pessimism, I'm pretty sure we all know that the subject of discussion is a serious Debbie Downer

[Dabura 12,207]

's all good.

[Datsyerberger 279]

Lilja is the best shot blocker on the team...that and his ability to clear the crease make him the best penalty killer on the team in my opinion.

Strangely enough, some of the best teams in the league since the lockout have been those with some of the lowest shot blocking (with Detroit frequently being #1 in the league and #30 in shot blocking). This is likely attributable to the fact that superior teams possess the puck more and allow fewer shots, thus a lesser need to block shots. It could therefore be argued that Lilja plays an inferior puck possession game and is therefore required to block more shots to be effective. Thus, it's my belief he has more value to a lower running team that needs shot blocking than he does to a puck possession team like the Wings.

Edited March 18, 2009 by Datsyerberger

[Heroes of Hockeytown 694]

It could therefore be argued that Lilja plays an inferior puck possession game and is therefore required to block more shots to be effective.

Or he's always the first guy over the boards on PK and EN situations, and is willing to step in front of the shot to make the play.

[russianswede919293 95]

Strangely enough, some of the best teams in the league since the lockout have been those with some of the lowest shot blocking (with Detroit frequently being #1 in the league and #30 in shot blocking). This is likely attributable to the fact that superior teams possess the puck more and allow fewer shots, thus a lesser need to block shots. It could therefore be argued that Lilja plays an inferior puck possession game and is therefore required to block more shots to be effective. Thus, it's my belief he has more value to a lower running team that needs shot blocking than he does to a puck possession team like the Wings.

I disagree. At least in terms of penalty kills. When on the penalty kill you are not expected to have consistent possession of the puck. In fact it is typically the exact opposite. Therefore since he blocks the most shots on the PK it is because he is the best and most willing to do so.

[Datsyerberger 279]

Or he's always the first guy over the boards on PK and EN situations, and is willing to step in front of the shot to make the play.

I was more speculating that pointing out in fact, but in all honestly, I would argue that it's a mix of both. He's relatively slow compared to most Wings players, not a great stick checker, and at times can be turnover-prone. His size and positioning (and history as a soccer goalie) make shot blocking his most valuable asset, followed by his physical play.

My argument was more one that heavy shot blocking is not necessarily a trend of success, and that we might benefit more from a defenseman using his minutes that defends in a method that fits more with the Wings overall style of play (and that a team with a higher shots against average might benefit more than us from Lilja's shot blocking).

The difference between Lilja's shot blocking and Lidstrom's shot blocking is that Lidstrom only blocks shots when he absolutely needs to because he has other (and less painful) methods of disrupting shots of play in which he is equally or more effective than Lilja, whereas Lilja does so frequently because it's his primary defensive asset, especially on the PK. The fact that he blocks more shots does not necessarily make him better at defense or the PK.

Edited March 18, 2009 by Datsyerberger

[Wingaling 0]

we should sign hossa and franzen....hossa first, lose hudler(it hurts me to say it), sammy and a d. we need to keep hossa and the mule, they are our main fire power, asides from z and dats. we can replace the others with our gr crew...hem,leino and ericsson . ps keep flip...he will pay off!

[Datsyerberger 279]

The difference between Lilja's shot blocking and Lidstrom's shot blocking is that Lidstrom only blocks shots when he absolutely needs to because he has other (and less painful) methods of disrupting shots of play in which he is equally or more effective than Lilja, whereas Lilja does so frequently because it's his primary defensive asset, especially on the PK. The fact that he blocks more shots does not necessarily make him better at defense or the PK.

I feel I should elaborate more on this position, because I don't want this to come across as a knock on Lilja, which is about the last thing he deserves at the moment.

One main thing (possibly THE main thing) that Lilja has going for him is that he's very willing to commit the body to a shot block and will do so frequently. He also suffers from the problem that he has to do so frequently in order to be an effective player, because he has few other strong assets, but the fact that he's willing to play his best assets makes him a valuable player.

However, it does not necessarily mean that large amounts of shot blocking = the most effective defense. In general, statistics would show that a Lidstrom-style defense of skating + positioning, plus stick checks and stick lifts, are more effective. Lidstrom doesn't block less shots than Lilja because he's less willing to do so.. he does so simply because of the fact he NEEDS to do it a lot less. He has other, more effective tools with which he can reliably defend.

Ideally, I would rather have a player that stick-checks and skates effectively, and commits the body WHEN NECESSARY on the PK than Lilja. Throwing yourself in front of the path of a 100 mph chunk of rubber is an act of desperation, not the most effective means to an end. However, I think there are a LOT of teams in the league that could benefit greatly from Lilja's shot blocking, because his strong play to this particular asset is more than many teams have going for them.

Edited March 18, 2009 by Datsyerberger

[Heroes of Hockeytown 694]

I was more speculating that pointing out in fact, but in all honestly, I would argue that it's a mix of both. He's relatively slow compared to most Wings players, not a great stick checker, and at times can be turnover-prone.

He's a typical workhorse third pairing guy, so he would be. Guys that can make Lidstrom-like plays get Lidstrom-like money.

My argument was more one that heavy shot blocking is not necessarily a trend of success, and that we might benefit more from a defenseman using his minutes that defends in a method that fits more with the Wings overall style of play (and that a team with a higher shots against average might benefit more than us from Lilja's shot blocking).

I get your angle, but Lilja's shot blocking meshes fine with what the Wings do, and there's not enough room to sign more skilled guys besides.

[Datsyerberger 279]

I get your angle, but Lilja's shot blocking meshes fine with what the Wings do, and there's not enough room to sign more skilled guys besides.

I heard we got some Eric Jonathansson guy for less money than Lilja, and that despite the fact he was touted as an offensive threat, he's done amazingly well at shutting down opposing forwards.

In all seriousness, I think that if Ericsson continues his surprisingly effective defensive play, he can replace Lilja next year on the PK.. and that we won't miss Lilja's shot blocking because we have someone else who defends equally well, but in a different method.

[Heroes of Hockeytown 694]

and that we won't miss Lilja's shot blocking because we have someone else who defends equally well, but in a different method.

You're putting a lot of confidence in a guy who has played all of 16 NHL games. He's played well, and he's going to get his chance, but he hasn't been given the PKing duties that Lilja has yet. It's awfully premature to label them as PKing equals.

In my mind, it doesn't matter how you get it done, so long as you get it done. The Wings have a style and a system but on the PK it's just about preventing the puck from entering the net and getting it out. It's no secret why he plays on the top PKing unit with Nick and logs nearly as much SH ice time per game. He's good at what he does, no matter how he goes about doing it.

[Datsyerberger 279]

You're putting a lot of confidence in a guy who has played all of 16 NHL games. He's played well, and he's going to get his chance, but he hasn't been given the PKing duties that Lilja has yet. It's awfully premature to label them as PKing equals.

In my mind, it doesn't matter how you get it done, so long as you get it done. The Wings have a style and a system but on the PK it's just about preventing the puck from entering the net and getting it out. It's no secret why he plays on the top PKing unit with Nick and logs nearly as much SH ice time per game. He's good at what he does, no matter how he goes about doing it.

In all seriousness, I think that if Ericsson continues his surprisingly effective defensive play, he can replace Lilja next year on the PK.. and that we won't miss Lilja's shot blocking because we have someone else who defends equally well, but in a different method.

You managed to leave a key word out of quoting me, which more or less makes or breaks my statement. Bolded for reference.

And actually, it does matter how you get it done. Success and shot blocking seem, on average, to have a reverse correlation (that is, greater success = less shot blocking and less success = more shot blocking. Not because shot blocking is bad, but because greater blocked shots shows a NEED for more shot blocking. Again, this is not saying shot blocking is bad, because, when NECESSARY, it's not. But it's more effective hockey to kill offense in a way besides shot blocking, if you can. Lilja's shot blocked totals show both a need for him to block shots to be effective, and his willingness to do so to be effective. Conversely, Lidstrom's or Datsyuk's lower shots blocked totals do not show a defensive ineffectiveness on their behalf, but rather, the opposite).

Edit: To further build on that point, Detroit's overall low shot blocked totals compared to their low shots against and GAA in the last couple years show a lack of need for such to be effective. HOWEVER, because something has clearly dropped off this year in their defensive effectiveness, Lilja's shot blocking has gained a lot of value for the Wings this year, even though he hasn't significantly changed in one way or another -- and he's getting a lot of love for it.

Edited March 18, 2009 by Datsyerberger

[Heroes of Hockeytown 694]

You managed to leave a key word out of quoting me, which more or less makes or breaks my statement. Bolded for reference.

My bad. He'll be around in the playoffs so I guess we'll all get a good look at him.

And actually, it does matter how you get it done. Success and shot blocking seem, on average, to have a reverse correlation (that is, greater success = less shot blocking and less success = more shot blocking. Not because shot blocking is bad, but because greater blocked shots shows a NEED for more shot blocking).

And if you block the shot and the goal isn't scored and you have lots of success? Lilja routinely leads the team in blocked shots, it might not be as effective as preventing chances by eliminating the opportunity for a shot altogether, but if you're good at it it can be more effective than some guy that's mediocre at trying to play positionally (Rafalski rings a bell).

EDIT: And Nick and Pavel are Norris/Selke guys, Lilja wishes he could see the game like they do.

Edited March 18, 2009 by Heroes of Hockeytown

[Datsyerberger 279]

My bad. He'll be around in the playoffs so I guess we'll all get a good look at him.

And if you block the shot and the goal isn't scored and you have lots of success? Lilja routinely leads the team in blocked shots, it might not be as effective as preventing chances by eliminating the opportunity for a shot altogether, but if you're good at it it can be more effective than some guy that's mediocre at trying to play positionally (Rafalski rings a bell).

EDIT: And Nick and Pavel are Norris/Selke guys, Lilja wishes he could see the game like they do.

Bold #1 -- That's the Wings this year.. well, except for the fact that our defense has been less than successful than in previous years. That's a great reason why shot blocking (and because of that, particularly Lilja) has become more necessary and valuable. IF we can eliminate that need for frequent shot blocking again, Lilja will become less valuable to us, and he can become an excellent asset to trade to a team which really needs shot blocking right now. My hope is that a combination of Ericsson and improved defensive play from Kronner and Stuart (edit: and to be fair, the team as a whole) are the catalysts behind this.

Bold #2 -- f*** yea! Me too!

Edited March 18, 2009 by Datsyerberger

[Heroes of Hockeytown 694]

I think it's also worth pointing out that your reverse correlation between blocked shots and winning isn't really a cogent argument against blocking shots on the PK. The large majority of shots occur at ES; worse teams will have the puck less and be forced to try and block more shots, but ultimately will still not be as successful. Better teams will also be awarded more power plays and compound this.

To that end, blocking shots does not necessarily lead to a less successful team, but a less successful team leads to more shot blocking.

We can agree that if you can make a play and not need to block a shot, that's better, but it's also hard to do, especially on the PK. Nick is the best Dman in the league and he's still got 57 blocked shots, and the rest of the PKing D (Nik, Stuart) have nearly as many (or would have if not for missed games) blocked shots as Lilja.

Edited March 18, 2009 by Heroes of Hockeytown