e_144 0 Report post Posted March 23, 2009 (edited) Despite the amazing news about Hossa willing to take less $ to stay in detroit for longer term. It looks like it will only be possible to sign two out of the three. This is how i figure: assuming cap limit stay same as this year, which is what most expect, we start with a cap space of about 0.23million. Next, considering the potential of leino and helm, i dont expect to see kopecky next year considering his weak performance, especially compared to the positive performance of leino. Leino will need a new contract, i expect him to get around 250,000 more than currently. As a fourth line center maybe third line, he can expect to get what hudler and franzen currently get, no way he gets more than samuelson i doubt chelios will play next year, so ericsson will come up to replace him. with the limited use of enforcer this year i see holland letting either mccarty or downey go. also, if osgood doesnt peform well in the playoffs i think we will let him go, in exchange for howard. otherwise osgood stays and we dont re-sign conklin and howard comes up. that would mean we have approx. 800,000 less cap space next year. i think samuelson will see his contract renewed at the same amount. no change there with neither datsyuk or zetterberg earning higher than a cap hit of 6.7m i think holland will be aiming for a cap hit of about 7m for hossa. that would be an additional 450,000 Cap space 230,000(current cap space) +500,000 (kopecky) -250,000 (leino) +750,000 (chelios) -900,000 (ericsson) +500,000 (downey/mcarty) +1,400,000 (osgood) -700,000 (howard) +450,000 (hossa) =1,980,000 that leaves approx. 2,000,000 for new contracts for hudler and franzen. both will expect similiar contracts as filpula. i think thats a cap hit of 3.25 or something around that. both hudler and franzen are earning about 1m, with 1 mil cap spac available each, that would allow for contracts of 2m each, and i dont think they will take that. so basically, i think holland will keep franzen, and let hudler go, considering the upward potential of helm and leino. even if holland lets maltby go and keeps helm to a two-way contract, that wont free up enough cap space to for 3m or more contracts for huder and franzen... anyway, these are my predictions....any thoughts? Edited March 23, 2009 by e_144 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Wombat 26 Report post Posted March 23, 2009 I think you're starting out with some wrong numbers which affects your calculations. The projected "cap space" at this point is projected with McCarty and Lilja on IR, where their salaries "don't count" (I know it's more complicated than that but I'm saying it for simplicity's sake). A fully healthy 22 man roster, with Ericsson down in the AHL, is $56.47 if I added correctly, which is only about $230,000 in cap space. If the Wings had over a million in cap space to play with, then we'd see a lot more of the AHL guys prior to LTIR assignments. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
e_144 0 Report post Posted March 23, 2009 I think you're starting out with some wrong numbers which affects your calculations. The projected "cap space" at this point is projected with McCarty and Lilja on IR, where their salaries "don't count" (I know it's more complicated than that but I'm saying it for simplicity's sake). A fully healthy 22 man roster, with Ericsson down in the AHL, is $56.47 if I added correctly, which is only about $230,000 in cap space. If the Wings had over a million in cap space to play with, then we'd see a lot more of the AHL guys prior to LTIR assignments. i thought i forgot something. anyway, edited the numbers. the new numbers make it all the more obvious that one of the three will be gone next year. its a shame. im pretty sure it'll be hudler... Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
stevkrause 1,247 Report post Posted March 23, 2009 (edited) I think you're starting out with some wrong numbers which affects your calculations. The projected "cap space" at this point is projected with McCarty and Lilja on IR, where their salaries "don't count" (I know it's more complicated than that but I'm saying it for simplicity's sake). A fully healthy 22 man roster, with Ericsson down in the AHL, is $56.47 if I added correctly, which is only about $230,000 in cap space. If the Wings had over a million in cap space to play with, then we'd see a lot more of the AHL guys prior to LTIR assignments. actually, we have 48,250,000 committed to salaries already for next season. Out of that, we need to sign a backup goaltender and 4 roster players (when I say "sign" this also means any promotions from the AHL.) This leaves us approximately 7.15 mil to fill these spots This also excludes any trades which may add a little cap relief... All things aside, I see absolutely no way that we can re-sign both Franzen and Hossa, let alone all 3 and still fill out a roster... In my perfect scenario (all rounded): re-sign Franzen for a 3.2 hit re-sign Hudler for a 1.2 hit re-sign Kopecky at a .5 hit play Leino all year at a .9 hit play Helm all year at a .6 hit play Howard all year at a .8 hit play Ericsson all year at a .9 hit then trade away Lebda and free up an additional .7 hit I hate to say it, but let Hossa walk (unless he's willing to sign for WAY lower than he could get elsewhere, like a 5 mil cap hit a year) say bye to Cheli say bye to Samuelsson Under this scenario, we have a VERY well rounded roster, depth at forward and defense AND a VERY IMPORTANT, cap wiggle in the event of injury, trade deadline deal... this leaves us a little more than a .5 space and if Maltby does the right thing and hangs them up at years end, that frees up another .9 to re-sign Hossa and Franzen, be prepared to say goodbye to at LEAST 2 current roster players... we won the cup last year and are looking good this year - if it isn't broke, don't fix it... Franzen-Zetterberg-Cleary Leino-Datsyuk-Holmstrom Hulder-Filpulla-Kopecky Draper-Helm-Malby? (Or Abdelkader) Meech Lidstrom-Rafalski Stuart-Kronwall Ericsson-Lilja Meech Osgood Howard looks pretty good to me... Edited March 23, 2009 by stevkrause Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
stevkrause 1,247 Report post Posted March 23, 2009 ^I agree I love Hossa, but his cap hit really cripples this team. I say let him walk. I hate the cap world! I agree, it sucks and I'd love to see him stay here, I just don't see how it's responsible to re-sign him at that cap number - when you want a well rounded roster... although Hossa is a better player than Franzen, Franzen is home grown and will be cheaper and has shown a capability of putting up a pt per game clip... not to mention playoffs... sucks, but it's the way it is... Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
smosier 0 Report post Posted March 23, 2009 Beyond the math. Signing Hossa can only be good for our team. We have Z, Pav, Raf, Stuart, Ozzie, and Fil locked up for a few years. Having Hossa at say a 5.5 mil overall cap hit. Just like Z said in the Freep today: "It's not if you can live on 6 (million) or 8 million; I'd say it's more that you have a lower limit that you think you deserve, and we found that, and then they were great to give me the long term." Hossa wants to play with a good team, so we should be happy he is willing to stay. Then the wings have 3-4 30 goal scorers locked up long term, that can't hurt. BUT, the wings have to keep his close friend Kopecky to make this work!! As far as goalies, we would have to waive or trade Ozzie to get rid of him. I don't see the Illitch family waiving him... I say keep him around. Jimmy Howard has stalled in his development, and when he has played, he is nothing special. Why does the wing organization ignore their swedish tenders. Stefan Liv was on the Griffins, but they didn't bat an eye at his consistent all star performances in the AHL. Now we have another world class goalie in Daniel Larsson and all we hear about is Howard. Don't forget in 3-4 years we'll have Tomas McCollum whom is outstanding! I say sign Conklin next year again, he has been great. Split the starting duties, see if Howard is the real deal early in the season, if not, trade him for draft picks. Bring Larsson in for a couple games, he could be our Lundqvist!! Lundy was hugely underrated, but excelled in the NHL.... !! My projected depth chart for the next couple years would be: Datsyuk-Zetterberg-Holmstrom Hossa-Franzen-Leino Filpula-Abdelakder-Cleary Draper-Maltby-Helm Kopecky Lidstrom-Rafalski Stuart-Kronwall Ericsson-Kindl Lebda-Meech Osgood Conklin Larsson McCollum Say bye to.... Hudler, Lilja, Chelios, McCarty, Downey, Samuelson, Howard We could win cup after cup without these guys.... We don't need enforcers, because the enforcer role has changed. Enforcers USED to be there to protect the star players, from other enforcers, BUT since the hard hitting players nowadays, aren't players who fight. Then who says we need a guy who fights!! Oh, Don Cherry said so, but I'll take Presidents Trophies, and cups over a good scrap!! So, now that I have ranted, keep the points coming.... Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
KrazyGangsta 79 Report post Posted March 23, 2009 WoW people are really ... dumb ... no offense but like how can you pass on Marian Hossa for cheaper then his market value ... Let Franzen walk simple ... Sign Hossa and Huds and trade flip ... problem solved. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
e_144 0 Report post Posted March 23, 2009 actually, we have 48,250,000 committed to salaries already for next season. Out of that, we need to sign a backup goaltender and 4 roster players (when I say "sign" this also means any promotions from the AHL.) This leaves us approximately 7.15 mil to fill these spots This also excludes any trades which may add a little cap relief... All things aside, I see absolutely no way that we can re-sign both Franzen and Hossa, let alone all 3 and still fill out a roster... In my perfect scenario (all rounded): re-sign Franzen for a 3.2 hit re-sign Hudler for a 1.2 hit re-sign Kopecky at a .5 hit play Leino all year at a .9 hit play Helm all year at a .6 hit play Howard all year at a .8 hit play Ericsson all year at a .9 hit then trade away Lebda and free up an additional .7 hit I hate to say it, but let Hossa walk (unless he's willing to sign for WAY lower than he could get elsewhere, like a 5 mil cap hit a year) say bye to Cheli say bye to Samuelsson Under this scenario, we have a VERY well rounded roster, depth at forward and defense AND a VERY IMPORTANT, cap wiggle in the event of injury, trade deadline deal... this leaves us a little more than a .5 space and if Maltby does the right thing and hangs them up at years end, that frees up another .9 to re-sign Hossa and Franzen, be prepared to say goodbye to at LEAST 2 current roster players... we won the cup last year and are looking good this year - if it isn't broke, don't fix it... Franzen-Zetterberg-Cleary Leino-Datsyuk-Holmstrom Hulder-Filpulla-Kopecky Draper-Helm-Malby? (Or Abdelkader) Meech Lidstrom-Rafalski Stuart-Kronwall Ericsson-Lilja Meech Osgood Howard looks pretty good to me... dont agree... leino can replace hudler, so he can go. apart from that there is no way hudler will resign for 1.2 after this season. he is gonna be looking at franzen and filpula and will expect similiar pay. also, im not a big fan of lilja but he has been playing very well this year. same goes for samualson. why let them go? in contrast, conklin is better than osgood (this year) and played a great season last year as backup for fleury. why not give him ossies spot as number one if he is cheaper? i would much prefer to see: zetterberg-dats-holms franzen-leino-hossa filpula-helm-sam cleary-draper-abdelkader/maltby Lidstrom-Rafalski Stuart-Kronwall Ericsson-Lilja Meech conklin howard Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Casey 145 Report post Posted March 23, 2009 Let Franzen go, keep Hossa and Hudler, feed Conk a bit more cash to keep him happy. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
e_144 0 Report post Posted March 23, 2009 WoW people are really ... dumb ... no offense but like how can you pass on Marian Hossa for cheaper then his market value ... Let Franzen walk simple ... Sign Hossa and Huds and trade flip ... problem solved. i partially agree. from the article i read, it seems like hossa really is willing to sign long term for quite a lot under market value. no way kenny will give him much more than zetterberg or dats. if hossa doesnt go for a cap hit of 7mil or lower than it would be better to sign hudler and franzen. on top of that if hossa would get more than that, think of how screwed over zetterberg would feel for not taking more from another team!! if he gets less, so should other franchise players (which hossa would be if he signs long term). As the mostly likely successor of lidstrom as captain, he'd be really pissed off, thats not the way to treat a franchise player But i dont think it would be so easy to trade flip cuz his contract is over market price...and even if you manage to trade flip you'd still be stuck with cap problem unless he is traded for draft picks... Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
eva unit zero 271 Report post Posted March 23, 2009 I've already gone into great detail about how this can work. No, Chelios and Conklin are not coming back. Conklin is going to sign for minimum $2m, possibly $3.5 or $4m somewhere else. The Wings have far too many defense prospects who they need to move into the NHL coming in the next few years to keep Chelios around. Franzen will likely be signing for the biggest salary he can find. Sorry, that's the way it's going to be. He'll probably cost upwards of $4m, possibly $5m or $5.5m per year and he isn't worth even close to that. So he's out of town after this season. The ideal move is to trade Brad Stuart, if an acceptable trade can be found. That opens up enough cap space to re-sign all the players the Wings will be retaining, assuming reasonable numbers, and allows for permanent promotion of Leino, Helm, Ericsson, and Howard to fill gaps. The Wings would work with 13 forwards, 7 defensemen, and 2 goalies. Maltby would be the spare forward, Meech and Lebda would split time as the sixth defenseman unless someone really showed they were better. This leaves about $200k in free cap space for next year if the cap remains the same. Zetterberg/Datsyuk/Holmstrom Kopecky/Hudler/Hossa Leino/Filppula/Samuelsson Cleary/Draper/Helm Maltby Lidstrom/Rafalski Kronwall/Ericsson Meech/Lilja Lebda Osgood Howard If the Stuart trade wasn't possible, the Wings would have to trade Valtteri Filppula and Brett Lebda, either together or separately. Leino, Helm, Ericsson, and Howard all see promotion. Derek Meech would serve double-duty as the spare forward and spare defenseman. This leaves about $100k in free cap space for next year if the cap remains the same. Zetterberg/Datsyuk/Holmstrom Kopecky/Hudler/Hossa Cleary/Leino/Samuelsson Maltby/Draper/Helm Meech Lidstrom/Rafalski Kronwall/Ericsson Stuart/Lilja Meech Osgood Howard If you want to actually retain Franzen while signing Hossa, you have a few options. Franzen would likely stay with the Wings for around $3.5m if he were to end up staying, so we need to find a way to open that space. So the way to keep Franzen would be to trade Stuart, Filppula, and Lebda, and promote Ericsson, Leino, Howard, and Kindl. You would also have to promote Abdelkader instead of re-signing Samuelsson. So the Wings would lose Filppula, Stuart, and Samuelsson to keep Franzen...is that worth it? Zetterberg/Datsyuk/Holmstrom Franzen/Hudler/Hossa Cleary/Kopecky/Leino Abdelkader/Draper/Helm Maltby Lidstrom/Rafalski Kronwall/Ericsson Kindl/Lilja Meech Osgood Howard I definitely favor the Stuart option, but any of those rosters could win the Cup. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
stevkrause 1,247 Report post Posted March 23, 2009 I've already gone into great detail about how this can work. No, Chelios and Conklin are not coming back. Conklin is going to sign for minimum $2m, possibly $3.5 or $4m somewhere else. The Wings have far too many defense prospects who they need to move into the NHL coming in the next few years to keep Chelios around. Franzen will likely be signing for the biggest salary he can find. Sorry, that's the way it's going to be. He'll probably cost upwards of $4m, possibly $5m or $5.5m per year and he isn't worth even close to that. So he's out of town after this season. The ideal move is to trade Brad Stuart, if an acceptable trade can be found. That opens up enough cap space to re-sign all the players the Wings will be retaining, assuming reasonable numbers, and allows for permanent promotion of Leino, Helm, Ericsson, and Howard to fill gaps. The Wings would work with 13 forwards, 7 defensemen, and 2 goalies. Maltby would be the spare forward, Meech and Lebda would split time as the sixth defenseman unless someone really showed they were better. This leaves about $200k in free cap space for next year if the cap remains the same. Zetterberg/Datsyuk/Holmstrom Kopecky/Hudler/Hossa Leino/Filppula/Samuelsson Cleary/Draper/Helm Maltby Lidstrom/Rafalski Kronwall/Ericsson Meech/Lilja Lebda Osgood Howard If the Stuart trade wasn't possible, the Wings would have to trade Valtteri Filppula and Brett Lebda, either together or separately. Leino, Helm, Ericsson, and Howard all see promotion. Derek Meech would serve double-duty as the spare forward and spare defenseman. This leaves about $100k in free cap space for next year if the cap remains the same. Zetterberg/Datsyuk/Holmstrom Kopecky/Hudler/Hossa Cleary/Leino/Samuelsson Maltby/Draper/Helm Meech Lidstrom/Rafalski Kronwall/Ericsson Stuart/Lilja Meech Osgood Howard If you want to actually retain Franzen while signing Hossa, you have a few options. Franzen would likely stay with the Wings for around $3.5m if he were to end up staying, so we need to find a way to open that space. So the way to keep Franzen would be to trade Stuart, Filppula, and Lebda, and promote Ericsson, Leino, Howard, and Kindl. You would also have to promote Abdelkader instead of re-signing Samuelsson. So the Wings would lose Filppula, Stuart, and Samuelsson to keep Franzen...is that worth it? Zetterberg/Datsyuk/Holmstrom Franzen/Hudler/Hossa Cleary/Kopecky/Leino Abdelkader/Draper/Helm Maltby Lidstrom/Rafalski Kronwall/Ericsson Kindl/Lilja Meech Osgood Howard I definitely favor the Stuart option, but any of those rosters could win the Cup. Stuart has a NTC - and it would KILL you for future free agents to mess with that - you don't sign a guy to a long term deal and then try and trade him 1 year into it. period. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
eva unit zero 271 Report post Posted March 23, 2009 Let Franzen go, keep Hossa and Hudler, feed Conk a bit more cash to keep him happy. Conklin is going out of Detroit for quite a bit more cash than you realize. He's not going to stick around as a backup, which is what he would be if he stayed. He's going to a team where he's the #1 or #1a goaltender and will make at least $2m...that's well over what the Wings can pay him. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Heroes of Hockeytown 694 Report post Posted March 23, 2009 Stuart has a NTC - and it would KILL you for future free agents to mess with that - you don't sign a guy to a long term deal and then try and trade him 1 year into it. period. The Wings rarely move roster players, as a tribute to their success and, until now, their ability to avoid the salary cap crunch. Times change, and Kenny will do what's best for the team. I guarantee that if Holland needs to move Stuart, it will get done. Moving Brad won't expend all that goodwill garnered during the last decade of success. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
MacK_Attack 108 Report post Posted March 23, 2009 I doubt you'd be able to move Stuart without taking salary back. That's the reality, especially with the cap uncertainty after next season. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
eva unit zero 271 Report post Posted March 23, 2009 Stuart has a NTC - and it would KILL you for future free agents to mess with that - you don't sign a guy to a long term deal and then try and trade him 1 year into it. period. A NTC just means you have to ask the guy if it's ok to make the deal. If the player OKs the deal, there's nothing wrong with it and it won't hurt you for the future. Players with NTCs get traded all the time. What it kills you to do is what Brian Burke and Doug MacLean did with Todd Marchant in the Sergei Fedorov deal. Columbus traded Tyler Wright and Francois Beauchemin to Anaheim for Fedorov. The same day, Todd Marchant had a NTC at the time. He was placed on waivers and Anaheim had the first pick at the time and claimed him. Basically, they worked around his NTC and got him to Anaheim anyway. That was basically against the rules. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
stevkrause 1,247 Report post Posted March 23, 2009 (edited) A NTC just means you have to ask the guy if it's ok to make the deal. If the player OKs the deal, there's nothing wrong with it and it won't hurt you for the future. Players with NTCs get traded all the time. What it kills you to do is what Brian Burke and Doug MacLean did with Todd Marchant in the Sergei Fedorov deal. Columbus traded Tyler Wright and Francois Beauchemin to Anaheim for Fedorov. The same day, Todd Marchant had a NTC at the time. He was placed on waivers and Anaheim had the first pick at the time and claimed him. Basically, they worked around his NTC and got him to Anaheim anyway. That was basically against the rules. exactly, and he wouldn't be ok with it. He flat out said in interviews that the reason for re-signing here, was that he wanted to be somewhere where he could set some roots and stay there for awhile and was sick of moving. He cannot and will not be traded. Edited March 23, 2009 by stevkrause Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
eva unit zero 271 Report post Posted March 23, 2009 I doubt you'd be able to move Stuart without taking salary back. That's the reality, especially with the cap uncertainty after next season. How about an early summer trade? Stuart for a couple mid-round picks and the rights to Staffan Kronwall? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
stevkrause 1,247 Report post Posted March 23, 2009 How about an early summer trade? Stuart for a couple mid-round picks and the rights to Staffan Kronwall? this is a joke, right? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Wombat 26 Report post Posted March 23, 2009 I am loathe to be pleased with any scenario, regardless of how many great players are retained, that leaves the Wings with another year of the salary cap crunch that does not allow movement between GR and Detroit. Meech is not an acceptable player at the forward position IMO and should only be used in extreme circumstances. Normal 1-2 game injuries that cannot be placed on LTIR need to be filled with GR players when necessary, and that requires cap space for that movement. I hope players choose to re-sign for uber cheap with the Wings but I'd advise that no one be set on seeing their projected roster being the one for next year. There is too little salary cap space and too many assumptions on what sort of discounts current Wings will give back. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
MacK_Attack 108 Report post Posted March 23, 2009 (edited) How about an early summer trade? Stuart for a couple mid-round picks and the rights to Staffan Kronwall? Leafs don't have Staffan Kronwall anymore, Washington does. Plus I believe that Staffan will be a Group VI UFA this summer, anyways. Leafs have no room for defence as it is. They need forwards. Leafs already have the following defencemen for next year: - Tomas Kaberle - Luke Schenn - Pavel Kubina - Mike Van Ryn (for the 15 games that he's healthy) - Jeff Finger - Ian White - Phil Oreskovic - Jonas Frogren - Anton Stralman Edited March 23, 2009 by MacK_Attack Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Wombat 26 Report post Posted March 23, 2009 this is a joke, right? God I hope so. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
KrazyGangsta 79 Report post Posted March 23, 2009 Franzen won the cup ... all ready showed some greediness last contract time, don't be surprised if he just wants the money because his still young and knows in the head that his all ready won at least one cup. Hossa on the other hand never won a cup, rarely been in a winning atmosphere is in a great team with the potential of winning the cup more then once if he we're to sign for cheaper and stay with this team. Odds are that Hossa stays here over Franzen. People think that Franzen will re-sign 3.5 - 4 million $$$ deal, he will be looking at 5-5.5 million dollar deal which his worth it but hey I'd rather keep Hossa for an extra mil or 2. If franzen walks and we trade flip, problem saved. Forget about the Stuart trade, Wings will never trade a defensmen. We need him and his cheap for what he brings to team, he might not be having best season, but some players just explode in the playoffs. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
rage 24 Report post Posted March 23, 2009 this is a joke, right? I second that! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
