Why the Wings will lose this series

[87to71 0]

So the Pens have all the momentum because they win 2 straight (hypothetically) but we don't have any momentum at all from winning two straight? Got it. One thing you should probably have picked up by now is that the Wings are less susceptible to emotional and momentum changes than just about anyone. The Pens? Yes, they've learned since last year, but I still see some panic with them. They almost sound like they're trying to convince themselves they're still in it. You might read it as confidence and that's cool, but I don't.

A couple other points:

1. I said this in another thread, but have we already forgotton how heavily the deck was stacked against us? You know, the thing we were bitching about all last week? We had no right to win both of those games, yet we played the Eastern Conference champs (and one of the hottest teams as well) evenly (yes, evenly) and gutted out 2 Ws. We were far from our best and will only get stronger as the series goes on. Let's not forget that the Pens are playing in these games too and we have more depth.

2. I'm not overly concerned about last change. Z's done a fantastic job and rightly gets a lot of credit for it, but really, it's been a full team and coaching effort on Crosby. We've rightly figured out that guys like Guerin and Kunitz are quality players, but at the same time, only as good as Crosby makes them look. So we're smothering him every single time in, sometimes with 3 guys. Our 2nd D pair is as good as most teams' 1sts, and we don't have a single forward on the team that doesn't put out on the backcheck. Where's the matchup they're going to exploit at will? I don't see it.

3. Osgood. Can you see him letting 3-4 per game (what they'll need to win) past him after how well he's played all playoffs? I can't.

Bill Guerin had 2 pretty good quality scoring chances last night. He rang one right off the post in front on a great set-up from Crosby that was inches from going in, and Osgood made a pretty good save on him right in front of the net again a few minutes later. Guerin likes to shoot the puck and finds ways to get open a lot of the time so if Crosby keeps giving him quality scoring chances like he has done since he has been here he will find the back of the cage more times then not. Osgood could have easily given up 3 or 4 last night. The Red Wings have been turning the puck over a lot in their own end I notice more then they usually do. If they continue to do that especially in Pittsburgh Osgood will get burned by it at some point...Guys like Crosby and Malkin arent going to keep hitting posts all the time if given enough quality scoring chances...

[Broken 16 381]

Not so sure the "wings got hosed by the schedule" really has any merit. Pens had to deal with 7 game series in round 2 and only had one more day of rest prior to this series. Yea we're injured and all, but we ARE the best team in the league. Once Dats comes back, assuming he's truly healthy, look out. If there's anything to blame, its the injury bug flying around our boys. As for the rest of the post, I completely agree.

We had a 7 game series in round 2 as well. I feel like the rushed schedule hurts the Wings a lot more, especially with the injury situation. I'm not prepared to use that as an excuse if we lose, but I feel like it was a golden opportunity for Pittsburgh to try and take advantage of. Nothing more.

[Heroes of Hockeytown 694]

Not so sure the "wings got hosed by the schedule" really has any merit. Pens had to deal with 7 game series in round 2 and only had one more day of rest prior to this series.

The important difference being the Wings finished their series in five games, which usually allows for a moderate rest period, whereas the Pens had to go the distance, which never affords that opportunity.

[C-TownWing 0]

Bill Guerin had 2 pretty good quality scoring chances last night. He rang one right off the post in front on a great set-up from Crosby that was inches from going in, and Osgood made a pretty good save on him right in front of the net again a few minutes later. Guerin likes to shoot the puck and finds ways to get open a lot of the time so if Crosby keeps giving him quality scoring chances like he has done since he has been here he will find the back of the cage more times then not. Osgood could have easily given up 3 or 4 last night. The Red Wings have been turning the puck over a lot in their own end I notice more then they usually do. If they continue to do that especially in Pittsburgh Osgood will get burned by it at some point...Guys like Crosby and Malkin arent going to keep hitting posts all the time if given enough quality scoring chances...

Thanks for helping my point Guerin just doesn't scare me at all, unless he's getting a sick setup from Crosby.

You're right about the turnovers, but I think (hope, anyway) that it was a product of our legs (temporarily) being gone...our D just couldn't get any separation from the forecheck.

[HadThomasVokounOnFortSt 878]

Well I am pretty sure your wrong.

[87to71 0]

Thanks for helping my point Guerin just doesn't scare me at all, unless he's getting a sick setup from Crosby.

You're right about the turnovers, but I think (hope, anyway) that it was a product of our legs (temporarily) being gone...our D just couldn't get any separation from the forecheck.

Well most of Guerin's goals are a result of Crosby setting him up which is why he gets a lot of scoring chances. You want to be careful what you wish for because Guerin is a veteran guy and he knows how to finish quality scoring chances more times then not if he keeps getting them on a consistent basis. Crosby is going to create a lot more chances and get a bunch more himself I feel in games 3 and 4 being away from guys like Zetterberg and Lidstrom. I noticed last night he had at least 2 good scoring chances when guys like Stuart and I believe it was Ericsson were out there against him.

[Drake_Marcus 890]

If you are the Pens, you make this series in to the roughest series you can possibly make it and get the Wings off their game. FINISH EVERY CHECK. CLUB HOLMSTROM WHEN HE IS IN CREASE AREA. GET TRAFFIC IN FRONT OF OSGOOD. Change the dynamics here and have Warrior mentality. You want the Cup, GO GET THE CUP.

Anaheim did that to Detroit in their cup year. Pens need to batter the Red Wings same way.

While that's the best strategy to beat the Wings, you really can't expect to morph yourself into a super-high grit anti-Wings team like the Ducks. They designed their team like that from the start.

Now you can see why Wings fans said the series against the Ducks would be the hardest series this year. The Ducks are the very definition of anti-Wings.

You guys still have 5 games to try and pull out 4 wins, but I don't think you'll do so by changing the way the Pens play, the Pens have to keep trying to play their game instead of trying to counter the Wings' game.

[cirov19 1]

Pierre?

LOL.

Reasonable post OP, but the Wings only improve as the play improves.

I wasn't feeling awesome before this series started but the feeling sure is getting close.

Edited June 2, 2009 by cirov19

[Dabura 12,207]

Yeah, not having the last change will definitely be the Wings' undoing. It's a shame they don't have the deepest offensive and defensive units in the NHL. Oh, wait....

[Dabura 12,207]

Also, I can't recall a single time I've been uneasy seeing Bill Guerin square off against the Wings. It's truer than ever now that we've become well acquainted with the likes of Getzlaf and Perry.

[VM1138 1,921]

First let me say that I've been a huge Wings fan since 1993 and was HIGHLY confident that we would win each time we've been in the Finals (even against the NJD, but that didn't turn out so well). However, after watching the first two games of this series and taking into account some other factors, I am extremely concerned that we will lose this series in 6 or 7 games despite being up 2-0. I'm usually not an ultra pessimistic person so I'm a bit concerned that my thinking may have some merit.

Here are my thoughts:

In the first two games, I felt that from an overall effort and quality of play perspective, the edge has to go to the Penguins. Detroit has been outshot, had way too many giveaways, and spent a significant amount of time chasing the puck rather than playing our puck possession style of game. The Wings are dumping it in more than usual as the neutral has been effectively clogged and Malkin and Crosby are getting some looks but we've had some luck with posts (and of course Ozzy has played well).

But as this series transitions to Pittsburgh, the major concern I have is matchups. With the Pens getting the last change, I believe this gives them a significant edge, more so than against most other teams. Zetterberg has been huge on Crosby, and whenever the wrong lines have been out against the Pens, you can tell that the danger level of Malkin and Crosby is elevated significantly. The absence of Datsuyk only exasperates this problem, and I believe that he is likely gone for the series.

So with this in mind, I truly believe the Pens will take the next two games bringing it back to Detroit tied 2-2 with all the momentum. Our guys will be more exhausted then theirs at this point given injuries and the fact that our top D-man and guys like Zetterberg are actually playing more minutes than their top guys (this will begin to affect us immensely as this series roles on). And if they can make it 2-2, they'll have the momentum, the energy, and they'll be able to smell the trophy at that point and I believe they'll have that extra bit of desperation to put them over the edge in a six or seven game series.

I don't know guys, I'm not your average mindfly pessimist. I was highly confident the Wings would win in past SCF, but I have no confidence this time around and I hope I am dead wrong about them.

Go wings....

Hey, Finals are a stressful time. I agree with some of your points. It wasn't exactly like the Wings were dominating. A lot can change with last change and a home crowd. But remember, this Wings team has consistently defied the odds and managed to control every situation thrown at them. They don't need to dominate Pittsburgh to beat them.

[gowings00 545]

San Jose outshot and outchanced Anaheim, and carried a lot of the play. They lost.

Detroit outshot and outchanced Edmonton, and carried the majority of the play. They lost.

If you ask me, this is sweet, sweet retribution for all those games and playoff series where WE lost, despite carrying the play and outchancing/outshooting the opponent. The universe is simply repaying us.

I could not agree with you more....We have always been on the short-end of the stick on this one. HOWEVER, I would still like to see less chances in front of Ozzie....

also...the reason the Pens are able to get all of those shots (and Ozzie stopping them) is because they have decided on a strategy of keeping it in our zone for multiple shots by placing their forwards along the boards (vs. placing a man in front of Ozzie)

It COULD be effective if your wrist shots are pin-point accurate and the goalie gives up weak goals, but Ozzie has been able to put himself in good position, see the puck and react. Plus, they haven't been pin-point with their shots.

So far so good.

go wings

[redwings4life 3]

I hope people realize that his last change works both ways so if Hank isn't out against Crosby than when Hank is out its a mismatch for the Pens

[RedFX 48]

[clutchngrab 12]

I see some merit to your concern, but overall I think you re being a Nervous Nellie.

Frankly, I think the series has been pretty even where one team seems to take it to the other in stretches. So far the wings have had more luck than the penguins, and better goaltending, but that can turn on a dime. There are, however, a few points that stand out in the wings favor:

1. Defensive depth. Our D core is deeper than the 6 the pens play. The reason we are dumping and chasing so much is that Babcock wants the slower bigger guys like Orpick and Gill to turn and fetch. I think it is a good strategy and they will wear out - much like they did towards the end of game 2.

2. Forward depth. Our 3rd and 4th lines are flat-out better than the pens comparable units. This makes a difference when the checking is tight.

3. Goaltending. I never thought I would be posting this, but Osgood is flat out better than Fleury, who in my opinion is one of the most overrated goalies in the league.

4. The whine factor. Until the pens (and their fans) sprout some balls and quit bitching, they'll always allow themselves a built-in excuse for failure.

5. The wings have yet to play a good game in the finals, whereas I don't think the pens have another notch. I think the day off will help the wings immensely.

6. Pavs. If he makes it back this series around game 5,6 or 7 he will be the defensive difference.

7. Hossa. This guy will be super motivated to not only win the cup, but to beat Pittsburgh in doing so for all the obvious reasons.

Edited June 2, 2009 by clutchngrab

[dawings1905 2]

First let me say that I've been a huge Wings fan since 1993 and was HIGHLY confident that we would win each time we've been in the Finals (even against the NJD, but that didn't turn out so well). However, after watching the first two games of this series and taking into account some other factors, I am extremely concerned that we will lose this series in 6 or 7 games despite being up 2-0. I'm usually not an ultra pessimistic person so I'm a bit concerned that my thinking may have some merit.

Here are my thoughts:

In the first two games, I felt that from an overall effort and quality of play perspective, the edge has to go to the Penguins. Detroit has been outshot, had way too many giveaways, and spent a significant amount of time chasing the puck rather than playing our puck possession style of game. The Wings are dumping it in more than usual as the neutral has been effectively clogged and Malkin and Crosby are getting some looks but we've had some luck with posts (and of course Ozzy has played well).

But as this series transitions to Pittsburgh, the major concern I have is matchups. With the Pens getting the last change, I believe this gives them a significant edge, more so than against most other teams. Zetterberg has been huge on Crosby, and whenever the wrong lines have been out against the Pens, you can tell that the danger level of Malkin and Crosby is elevated significantly. The absence of Datsuyk only exasperates this problem, and I believe that he is likely gone for the series.

So with this in mind, I truly believe the Pens will take the next two games bringing it back to Detroit tied 2-2 with all the momentum. Our guys will be more exhausted then theirs at this point given injuries and the fact that our top D-man and guys like Zetterberg are actually playing more minutes than their top guys (this will begin to affect us immensely as this series roles on). And if they can make it 2-2, they'll have the momentum, the energy, and they'll be able to smell the trophy at that point and I believe they'll have that extra bit of desperation to put them over the edge in a six or seven game series.

I don't know guys, I'm not your average mindfly pessimist. I was highly confident the Wings would win in past SCF, but I have no confidence this time around and I hope I am dead wrong about them.

Go wings....

You do realize the Wings were outshooting the Pens until going into a defensive shell in the third last night right? It took a 12-3 effort for the Pens to outshoot us, and it was because we went into a non-attack mode with the lead. You also realize the lack of rest we had going in right? I agree the Pens have played better, but as a wings fan you should be ashamed at the lack of confidence you have in your own team. How many times do the wings have to do it for you to become a believer? Just curious.

[clutchngrab 12]

San Jose outshot and outchanced Anaheim, and carried a lot of the play. They lost.

Detroit outshot and outchanced Edmonton, and carried the majority of the play. They lost.

If you ask me, this is sweet, sweet retribution for all those games and playoff series where WE lost, despite carrying the play and outchancing/outshooting the opponent. The universe is simply repaying us.

Maybe, but the universe certainly likes goaltenders that are playing better than the opponents. That hasn't always been the case, but is now.

[Rocket Queen 30 1]

thanks for the input. please exit the bandwagon.

mos def.

[Datsyerberger 279]

We've been outshooting the Pens in the 1st and 2nd period, the latter of which we've exited with a lead both times. We then enter defensive hockey mode and force them into taking a large amount of low quality, unscreened shots from the outside/bad angles. This is why their shot totals are higher. I really don't see how this is difficult to figure out.

Our scoring chances have been of a higher quality. Our goaltending has been of a higher quality. It's not too hard to put two and two together there.

[clutchngrab 12]

It's a Wings board dumbass. We're supposed to rah-rah the Wings. Just because the Pens boards are full of morons and idiots that doesn't mean you HAVE to come over here and try to dampen our enthusiasm over winning the Cup again this year. If you don't like what's being said here then go elsewhere. Maybe you should spend your time whining to Cindy and Evelyn about how much money they make compared with the # of points they're putting up in this series so far. For that kind of dough you could just pay off the NHL to probably GIVE you the cup, maybe you could convince them to change their whole playoff schedule to give you an advantage and that the rules don't apply to your players if they break them and... oh wait a minute, I see you've already done this, continue on good sir, and may your bribery bring you nothing but more tears from Cindy and Evelyn as we skate past them with the Cup (while Hossa shakes all your ******* hands).

As a wing fan and forum poster I appologize for this ass.

[greenrebellion 415]

I see some merit to your concern, but overall I think you re being a Nervous Nellie.

Frankly, I think the series has been pretty even where one team seems to take it to the other in stretches. So far the wings have had more luck than the penguins, and better goaltending, but that can turn on a dime. There are, however, a few points that stand out in the wings favor:

1. Defensive depth. Our D core is deeper than the 6 the pens play. The reason we are dumping and chasing so much is that Babcock wants the slower bigger guys like Orpick and Gill to turn and fetch. I think it is a good strategy and they will wear out - much like they did towards the end of game 2.

2. Forward depth. Our 3rd and 4th lines are flat-out better than the pens comparable units. This makes a difference when the checking is tight.

3. Goaltending. I never thought I would be posting this, but Osgood is flat out better than Fleury, who in my opinion is one of the most overrated goalies in the league.

4. The whine factor. Until the pens (and their fans) sprout some balls and quit bitching, they'll always allow themselves a built-in excuse for failure.

5. The wings have yet to play a good game in the finals, whereas I don't think the pens have another notch. I think the day off will help the wings immensely.

6. Pavs. If he makes it back this series around game 5,6 or 7 he will be the defensive difference.

7. Hossa. This guy will be super motivated to not only win the cup, but to beat Pittsburgh in doing so for all the obvious reasons.

You make some good points, hopefully I am just being a "Nervous Nellie" and my concerns are unjustified.

You do realize the Wings were outshooting the Pens until going into a defensive shell in the third last night right? It took a 12-3 effort for the Pens to outshoot us, and it was because we went into a non-attack mode with the lead. You also realize the lack of rest we had going in right? I agree the Pens have played better, but as a wings fan you should be ashamed at the lack of confidence you have in your own team. How many times do the wings have to do it for you to become a believer? Just curious.

I've been a believer every other year, just have this really bad feeling for some reason after watching the first two games of this one. Even when we lost game 1 of the finals to Carolina in 2002, there was no doubt in my mind we were going to be just fine in that one.

[Echolalia 2,961]

Every single point that you mentioned nailed exactly how I am feeling about this series so far. While I think the Wings played to their strengths well, I still feel they need to step it up another notch to keep the Pens at bay. I'm not saying its impossible, but I'll definitely be more comfortable when our veterans get onto the scoresheet a bit more often (fyi the Wings have just as many goals from Griffins right now as they do from Wings; 2 Abdelkader, 1 Ericsson vs 1 Filppula 1 Franzen 1 Stuart). As pleased as I am that the Wings have kept the Pens offense at bay, they're doing a pretty good job against us, as well.

[clutchngrab 12]

You make some good points, hopefully I am just being a "Nervous Nellie" and my concerns are unjustified.

I've been a believer every other year, just have this really bad feeling for some reason after watching the first two games of this one. Even when we lost game 1 of the finals to Carolina in 2002, there was no doubt in my mind we were going to be just fine in that one.

Maybe the most important point is that the Wings have yet to play anywhere near as well as against Chicago and Anaheim. I'm a firm believer that the path to the finals is as important as anything, and in my mind the best teams are in the west. Really, the key series was Anaheim Detroit. Can you imagine Anaheim agains the pens? OMG that would have been an ass-kicking too, except that the NHL would not have let that happen playing the same way the Ducks played the Wings...

[redwashington2000 42]

First let me say that I've been a huge Wings fan since 1993 and was HIGHLY confident that we would win each time we've been in the Finals (even against the NJD, but that didn't turn out so well). However, after watching the first two games of this series and taking into account some other factors, I am extremely concerned that we will lose this series in 6 or 7 games despite being up 2-0. I'm usually not an ultra pessimistic person so I'm a bit concerned that my thinking may have some merit.

Here are my thoughts:

In the first two games, I felt that from an overall effort and quality of play perspective, the edge has to go to the Penguins. Detroit has been outshot, had way too many giveaways, and spent a significant amount of time chasing the puck rather than playing our puck possession style of game. The Wings are dumping it in more than usual as the neutral has been effectively clogged and Malkin and Crosby are getting some looks but we've had some luck with posts (and of course Ozzy has played well).

But as this series transitions to Pittsburgh, the major concern I have is matchups. With the Pens getting the last change, I believe this gives them a significant edge, more so than against most other teams. Zetterberg has been huge on Crosby, and whenever the wrong lines have been out against the Pens, you can tell that the danger level of Malkin and Crosby is elevated significantly. The absence of Datsuyk only exasperates this problem, and I believe that he is likely gone for the series.

So with this in mind, I truly believe the Pens will take the next two games bringing it back to Detroit tied 2-2 with all the momentum. Our guys will be more exhausted then theirs at this point given injuries and the fact that our top D-man and guys like Zetterberg are actually playing more minutes than their top guys (this will begin to affect us immensely as this series roles on). And if they can make it 2-2, they'll have the momentum, the energy, and they'll be able to smell the trophy at that point and I believe they'll have that extra bit of desperation to put them over the edge in a six or seven game series.

I don't know guys, I'm not your average mindfly pessimist. I was highly confident the Wings would win in past SCF, but I have no confidence this time around and I hope I am dead wrong about them.

Go wings....

Dude just don't post here go play golf with Gina and Cisy, this board is overwhelmed with stupid posts already.

[Snazzy 0]

Red Wings are banged up, sore, injured and (key) guys are out... so anything is possible. Being up 2-0 sure is a boost though. The Red Wings are playing on will, heart and determination. I do believe they have another gear left in the tank if they need it. So far, they didn't need it.