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Snazzy

Detroit isn't that great at Drafting

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Guest lnvincible
This journalist is incorrect.

One just has to look at players like Henrik Zetterberg, Pavel Datsyuk, and Jonathan Ericsson as examples.

Franzen , leino , i mean this guy is a-complete dumbass.

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"Player development? Top notch. But actually consistently drafting NHL-calibre players? Not their forte."

He makes some good points, and also makes himself look stupid at certain parts too. Overall grade for that peice of work, C+

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He who benefits.

Guys, relax. He just wrote this to get page hits. It's like writing an article saying Hasek or Roy were horrible goalies, or Yao Ming isn't tall or George Bush was a good president. You know it's stupid, wrong and was just written to rile up and excite people, and get page hits.

It's a cheap ploy for attention. Usually these bloggers get a big hit at first and fizzle out because they have no content. Quality writing rules all.

Or there's the small chance he believes this and he's a total moron.

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Datsyuk, Zetterberg, Holmstrom: 171, 210, 257.

Franzen, Filppula, Hudler: 97, 95, 58.

Abdelkader, Helm, Leino: 42, 132, undrafted (signed with Detroit directly out of Finland).

Downey, McCarty: undrafted (signed with Detroit directly), 46.

Lidstrom, Kronwall: 53, 29.

Lebda, Kindl: undrafted (signed with Detroit directly), 19.

Meech, Ericsson: 229, 291.

Osgood, Howard: 54, 64.

There's 17 NHL-caliber players. Average draft position among forwards? 123rd, leaving Leino and Downey out of the calculation. Defense, ignoring Lebda and counting rookie Kindl? 124th. Goaltending? 59th.

Detroit can't draft, my ass.

Edited by Casey

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Franzen , leino , i mean this guy is a-complete dumbass.

Free Agent....

Here’s a look at the players Detroit drafted in the 1st round since 1994. First of all - let's count all of the first round picks in 97,99, 01,02,03,04. Oh my goodness – there are none! Where did they go? Someone must have stolen them, because the most well managed team in the history of the NHL would never trade away draft picks, esepcially first rounders, since they realize how important they are and that no team can have any success without them. Second of all - not an overly impressive bunch besides Kronwall (and weirdly, all defencemen except for last year's pick).

This is particularly the best part of his entire analysis. Especially the bolded part. Ya, Detroit realizes how important those first rounders were to be sucessful alright. Lets see one of them landed us Hasek, two landed Chelios not quite sure about the other three, not too worried about looking it up because (this tool is obviously a Leafs fan) just how many times have the Leafs been to the Finals since 1994 compared to who has been there the most? Who has the most Presidents trophies since 1994? Who has the most 100 point seasons since 1994? Who has been to the Conference Finals the most since 1994? Who has been in the playoffs more since 1994? Not mentioning that they have been to the playoffs 19 straight years? Oh, I forgot one little question, who has won more Stanley Cups than ANYONE else in the NHL since 1994?

anyone? Does anyone know the answer? :lol: Yeah, Detroit realizes just how much those first round draft picks are to be sucessful, whether we use them to draft someone, Kronwall/Fischer, or to aquire someone, Chelios/Hasek, I think the Red Wings, if they had it to do all over again, they would do the exact same thing....

Toronto 1994-2009: ZERO Cups, ZERO FINALS APPEARANCES (BTW- Since 1967 those numbers are STILL Zero!)

Detroit 1994-2009: FOUR CUPS, SIX FINALS APPEARANCES...

Edited by LeftWinger

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It's a shame our fanbase can't even take the slightest bit of criticism constructively. The guy wasn't outright bashing Detroit - he took the oft-muttered phrase about Detroit's supposed "Godly" drafting, and dispelled it. I could have told him that years ago. Especially during the early Bowman years, we had a lot of poor drafts. Personally, I think our best drafting has only started the past few seasons - so his research will hopefully be revisited a few years from now.

I'm also curious as to whether or not his research includes guys like Fleischmann or Matthias? Regardless, I found more beef with some other conclusions he drew(specifically about taking Dmen in the top 10), as opposed to getting all up in arms because he dared question Detroit's infallibility.

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On a purely statistical basis, his evidence is sound-ish, and of course it will have a leaf's bias. Where he falls down is...

1) Ignoring the fact that of the drafted players now playing in the NHL, the wings are among the best of having their draft picks prosper in their organisation, rather than giving up on them as busts and swapping them for a 6th rounder only to see them flourish elsewhere.

2) It doesn't matter if only 1 player a year makes it if that player becomes an integral part of that teams success

3) Detroit is unbeatable at finding guys that no-one else has seen and picking them 2 or 3 rounds later than they have to. Also allowing Hakan one or two projects a year increases the diamond in the rough factor.

4) If someone plays 600 games for a winning team, then their worth is greater than someone who takes 15 years to play 600 games bouncing around between bottom feeders and the AHL...

5) Trading 1st round picks is not a bad idea if there is no one in the coming draft you feel you can get at 30 that you want, and if you win the Presidents trophy in the mean time!

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He obviously manipulated the data set to prove a point he already wanted to prove. Whatever.

I did enjoy how he made it a bad thing we traded a bunch of 1st rounders... after he pointed out we had little success with them. Seems to me that trading them would be smart given how well we drafted there.

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There are good points on this blog, but a bunch more poor points.

- He is correct that the Wings have not had very good marks drafting in the 1st round in the past 15ish years. Ignoring the past 3-4 drafts (who knows how those players will develop), the Wings really only produced two good ones... Fischer and Kronwall. Fischer's very promising career was cut short tragically, but Kronwall is good.

- His whole rant about Detroit not having a lot of first round picks is foolhardy at best. It is the price the team pays to stay competitive and make the Cup attainable on a yearly basis. Yes, it is better to have 1st rounders than not, but if those 1st rounders go to get guys that win the Cup in these recent years, it's a good trade.

- He points out the '98 and '99 drafts and calls the Wings "Really really lucky". Perhaps, but he tries making the point that so many of the players drafted before and after Z and D completely bust, so the Wings must be lucky. Well, on that list, 3 guys hit his 200 NHL games played mark out of 17 picks. that is a 17.6% success rate at that level, which almost doubles the NHL going rate of 9.8% of draftees getting 200 NHL games. He brings up these drafts as showing the Wings busts, but it in fact shows the Wings beating the NHL average!

The author looked at '96-'06, which honestly does not show all the great drafts by the Wings that built their championship teams. But let's look at '96 - '06 draftees for the Wings anyways. Here is the breakdown by round according to the author's 200 GP evaluation (any deviations from this will be noted). League averages from his blog:

1st round: 2/3 (66.6%) - league avg = 39.4%

2nd round: 3/13 (23.1%) - league avg = 10.6% * note: my numbers count Kopecky (183 games) and Tomas Fleischmann (191 games), as they should both easily cross the threshold this coming season.

3rd round: 2/6 (33.3%) - league avg = 9.8%

4th round: 0/14 (0%) - league avg = 5.8% * note: if Kyle Quincey can hit the 200 mark over the next couple years, then they'd be over the league avg at 7.1%. But he's not close yet, so it still counts as a 0.

5th round: 0/11 (0%) - league avg = 2.8%. * note: Helm is the hope for the Wings, but he's so far off still from 200 games that this is another goose-egg.

6th round: 1/15 (6.7%) - league avg = 6.2%

7th round: 1/11 (9.1%) - league avg = 4.4%

8th round: 0/10 (0%) - league avg = 5.2%

9th round: 0/9 (0%) - league avg = 4.1% * note: Detroit's hope here is Ericsson. He looks like the real deal but is still quite a way from 200 games.

Overall, 9.8% of players drafted between '96 and '06 play 200 games in the NHL. In that time, the Wings succeeded at a rate of 9.8% as well (counting Kopecky and Fleischmann. Without, they are 7.6%). They are also essentially even with the NHL rate for picks in rounds 3 and later (Wings are at 5.3%). That makes them look positively average by comparison.

But the '96 cutoff doesn't show all of Detroit's drafting acumen. '94 netted two 800+ gamers with Cups (Dandenault and Holmstrom). '93 got a 500+ gamer in Eriksson. '92 produced two guys over 600+ games (McCarty and Dan McGillis). In '91, the Wings first 4 picks all played over 500 games (Lapointe, Pushor, Osgood, Knuble). '90 produced 3 guys over 700, with one over 1000 games (Primeau, Kozlov, Jason York). And the '89 draft looks downright scary... 6 players played over 400 games, and 4 of them broke the 1000 game mark (Mike Sillinger, Bob Boughner, Lidstrom, Fedorov, Drake, and Konstantinov). '89 - '95 netted 18/78 draftees getting over the 200 game threshold, good for a 23% clip. I don't know what the overall NHL average was, but I doubt it would be much different from the '96-'06 numbers the blogger has... and the Wings were over double that!

To summerize this too long post... I think to adequately judge the Red Wings drafting acumen, you have to take a bigger look at which drafts built the championship teams. there was a bit of a drafting lull in the mid to late 90's to some extent, but what ties the generations (so to speak) together is that the Wings do find GREAT players at late points in the draft.

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He's right. Detroit sucks at drafting. Look at Pittsburgh. They picked Malkin, Crosby, Staal and Fleury within a couple of years. Why didn't we pick those guys??

Wait... could it be that it's harder to draft when you have the worst drafting position of all teams overall in the last 15 years??

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He's right. Detroit sucks at drafting. Look at Pittsburgh. They picked Malkin, Crosby, Staal and Fleury within a couple of years. Why didn't we pick those guys??

Wait... could it be that it's harder to draft when you have the worst drafting position of all teams overall in the last 15 years??

Facts don't matter on the internet.

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Facts don't matter on the internet.

:lol: so true, unfortunately.

i'm too lazy to look up the numbers, but he mentioned all those years that we traded away our first round picks. i wonder what positions those were, because i'm guessing most if not all of them were in the 20+ range. it's not as if we're trading away top five or even top fifteen picks left and right.

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First off, that is a great blog name :thumbup:

Second, I think Wombat's post is spot on. The blogger actually does make a few decent points, but I don't think he's looking a the big picture of Detroit's success.

Of course, any point he makes get lost on all the Sensitive Sallys who freak out anytime something remotely negative is said about the Wings.

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Why doesn't this guy go back farther than 1994? Is it because it fits his arguement better? If I remember correctly Scotty wasn't big on playing the young guys at all. Not only that but the Wings have had a top notch system that may have been very hard to break into if your a rookie under Scotties watch. Since that was the case these draftees didn't get the NHL ice time to develope(just my theory). But who cares anyway, 4 cups in those 15 years works pretty good IMO.

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Another thing to consider is how the system works with Detroit... Guys like Kindl, Abdelkader, and Howard would have been rushed through the pipeline much faster... I think of Landon Ferraro this years first pick and he is a guy that I think in most organizations would be looking at a call up in 2 years where here with Detroit he might be given 4 or 5 years to develop... There are a lot of guys in the Detroit system (or in other organizations that were Detroit picks) right now that will surpass 200 games, but are in the midst of the slow developmental process of the Wings... what was it 7 Swedes picked in the 1st roound this year? even 5 years ago most of them would have been Detroit's 2nd-5th round picks, Detroit is the cause of the current shift towards Swedish players in the draft...

P.S. How many Russian players has Detroit selected in the last 10 years that play professionally in Russia?

Edited by Wingseroo

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"Player development? Top notch. But actually consistently drafting NHL-calibre players? Not their forte."

He makes some good points, and also makes himself look stupid at certain parts too. Overall grade for that peice of work, C+

I think this is probably his biggest fault here... How many players are drafted as actually NHL ready? I'd say the answer for each draft could be probably counted on one hand. What really is the difference between drafting a player and him turning out a great player through your system, and drafting a player that is an "NHL-calibre player?" The difference is immeasurable, which is why you cannot use statistics to make a point based on an assumption such as this.

Edited by weGotTheCup89

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You just made me read that and waste a piece of my life that I will never get back.

Faulty logic, bad statistics and lack of knowledge of trading 1st RDP's!

I hope you're happy! <_<

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there was a similar analysis on puck prospectus last week and they put Detroit just outside the top 10, i believe. They also said it wasn't so much that Detroit was great at drafting, but that they were great at player retention. the Islanders were actually just ahead of Detroit, as far as drafting, and the list of names is impressive, but they weren't able to hold onto any of those guys.

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