Chi is SOOO Screwed

[MacK_Attack 108]

I am always up for learning new things, care to explain that.

By a quick count, approx. $41 million committed to 13 players. Assuming the cap drops in the lower $50-million range, that leaves about $10-12 million for 10 players. That's not a lot to go around.

[stevkrause 1,247]

I think you're going to be disappointed by how much Detroit doesn't have to spend next summer.

yea, I'm interested to hear this as well? Even if the cap takes the maximum drop of 6 mil (which I do not see the NHLPA allowing) thats still 10 mil we'll have left to sign essentially 4 players... 10 seems like more than enough to do that to me...

[Guest mindfly]

How do you KNOW the cap will go down that much.. maybe it stays the same or even increase?

[Scotty 0]

Tallon either has some kind of trick up his sleeve or he's just to blind and stupid to realize what position he's put the team in. It's probably the latter.

[stevkrause 1,247]

By a quick count, approx. $41 million committed to 13 players. Assuming the cap drops in the lower $50-million range, that leaves about $10-12 million for 10 players. That's not a lot to go around.

where do you get 13? Abs and Kader will be re-signed before seasons end and neither of them are going to get huge increases, so fine, lets say we have another 1.5 gone for their pay raises... thats 42.5 committed to 16 players (you only need 21 for an NHL roster) so you only need to sign 5 players with 8 mill left... that's more than enough...

EDIT - The 16th player would be the 7th d-man that we will carry for league minimum or close to, may not be Lebda or Meech, but someone of that caliber...

Edited July 9, 2009 by stevkrause

[MacK_Attack 108]

How do you KNOW the cap will go down that much.. maybe it stays the same or even increase?

The economic conditions essentially guarantee that there's going to be some regression in the salary cap. An awful lot of corporate dollars won't be available this time around. Advertising fees have dropped dramatically. There isn't nearly as much money out there for luxury things like private boxes and premium season tickets.

The cap would've dropped by $2 million for this upcoming season had it not been for the NHLPA 5% inflator, and that was with accouting for 95% of the total revenue before the recession hit.

Edited July 9, 2009 by MacK_Attack

[Opie 308]

In that 10 are included Abby, not getting a big raise, Helm, not getting a big raise.

Top 5 forwards are signed, Lids is as committed as one can get and will take a pay cut.

So Detroit has roughly 6-7 Million to sign 7 players. If Abby is making over 1 mil next year than even less worries because that means he tore it up this year!

The Hawks will need either 2 top 3 forwards or will need 1 top 3 and 1 top 2 D-men.

Plus a real NHL goalie, the one they have now got pulled, the guy who took them to the WCF is gone!

That is my point, not that Det has millions and millions to spend, that they have more cushion and are in much better shape next year.

Detroit always lives at the cap, Holland and Illitch and co. are used to dealing with cap problems as they normally are up against it on purpose and they are very rarely players at the deadline for a huge move.

Holland also hasn't f-ed up QO offers, let alone recently.

The circumstances are about as different as it can be.

6-7 million to sign a couple of 5-6 d-men and 4th liners (as in Maltby and Homer's replacements) will not cost 2 million a piece nor the 6 mil that CHI free agents are likely to get.

Detroit will once again fill out it roster with some where in the range of .5 - 2 mil in space or maybe less, but year after year they have filled out the roster with little to no room. It will happen again.

EDIT:

I still can't find 10 players to sign?

Too me it is 8 minimum. 13+8=21

Edited July 9, 2009 by Opie

[stevkrause 1,247]

The economic conditions essentially guarantee that there's going to be some regression in the salary cap. An awful lot of corporate dollars won't be available this time around. Advertising fees have dropped dramatically. There isn't nearly as much money out there for luxury things like private boxes and premium seasons tickets.

The cap would've dropped by $2 million for this upcoming season had it not been for the NHLPA 5% inflator, and that was with accouting for 95% of the total revenue before the recession hit.

and we've already pretty much hit rock bottom economically... I don't see it going up, or staying the same, but I do not see it dropping by more than 3 million... and even that I think it's a high estimate...

[gcom007 1,465]

The economic conditions essentially guarantee that there's going to be some regression in the salary cap. An awful lot of corporate dollars won't be available this time around. Advertising fees have dropped dramatically. There isn't nearly as much money out there for luxury things like private boxes and premium season tickets.

The cap would've dropped by $2 million for this upcoming season had it not been for the NHLPA 5% inflator, and that was with accouting for 95% of the total revenue before the recession hit.

And correct me if I'm wrong, but the NHLPA cannot pull the same stunt next year from what I understand. Next year if it goes down, it goes down without any arguments or appeals.

[gcom007 1,465]

and we've already pretty much hit rock bottom economically... I don't see it going up, or staying the same, but I do not see it dropping by more than 3 million... and even that I think it's a high estimate...

Considering it was supposed to drop this year and is artificially inflated and is almost bound to drop next year, I very easily could see it dropping $5-6 million. Time will tell, but don't let this years artificial cap fool you. Next year they'll likely be making up for 2 years in natural digression. This is why the NHL discouraged the NHLPA from making the move they did. It doesn't bode well for what will happen next year.

[MacK_Attack 108]

and we've already pretty much hit rock bottom economically... I don't see it going up, or staying the same, but I do not see it dropping by more than 3 million... and even that I think it's a high estimate...

The problem is that they're trying to collect money from corporations right now.....and where do you think these companies are going to cut corners first during these kinds of times? Luxury things like sports tickets/private boxes first. Then they look at cutting back on advertising. That's pretty much the NHL's revenue right there.

I think if I were to put a number on it, I think we'll be looking at a salary cap at around $52 million as the NHLPA can't inflate it by 5% again.

Look, the NHL revenue from this past season would've dropped the cap to the $54 million range. Now the revenues are going to drop again, so I don't see there being anything less than a $4 million cap drop.

Edited July 9, 2009 by MacK_Attack

[WingsCaptain 0]

By a quick count, approx. $41 million committed to 13 players. Assuming the cap drops in the lower $50-million range, that leaves about $10-12 million for 10 players. That's not a lot to go around.

I don't think the cap drops that much. Some markets are sucking, but every Caps game I went to (16 total this past season) were either sold out or damn near. They set a franchise record for attendance this year. So, hopefully the cap takes a minor hit in '10-'11.

Otherwise, you're right. Not much cash to go around.

One last thing -- somebody mentioned us re-signing Lids after next season, but I think he retires after the '09-'10 season. It just might be the end of an era. Really hate to say it, but he's already stayed longer than he originally had planned, and he won't be one of those guys who stays in the league longer than he should. He's made his statement in the NHL and it was a grand one at that: 6 Norris trophies, 4 Stanley Cups, a Conn Smythe trophy, Olympic gold, and first European born and trained captain to win the Cup. I hope he sticks around for another year or two, but in any event he's a lock for the HHoF, he'll have his number retired, and we'll be talking about him for decades to come.

I got to meet Lids when the Wings came to the White House after beating the Caps for the Cup in '98. After talking with him, Stevie Y, and Scotty Bowman, it just doesn't get any better than that.

~ Z

Edited July 9, 2009 by WingsCaptain

[stevkrause 1,247]

The problem is that they're trying to collect money from corporations right now.....and where do you think these companies are going to cut corners first during these kinds of times? Luxury things like sports tickets/private boxes first. Then they look at cutting back on advertising. That's pretty much the NHL's revenue right there.

I think if I were to put a number on it, I think we'll be looking at a salary cap at around $52 million as the NHLPA can't inflate it by 5% again.

The NHL didn't lose that much though, that's the point, had they not induced the 5% inflator this year, the cap would have only dropped by about 2.5 million and I do not see it dropping again this upcoming year, but rather, staying even... so the rational drop next year, would be around the 2-2.5 range... I'm not an economist, but I do follow financial trends a little bit...

[MacK_Attack 108]

The NHL didn't lose that much though, that's the point, had they not induced the 5% inflator this year, the cap would have only dropped by about 2.5 million and I do not see it dropping again this upcoming year, but rather, staying even... so the rational drop next year, would be around the 2-2.5 range... I'm not an economist, but I do follow financial trends a little bit...

It will drop again because now they're trying to collect all these corporate dollars in a much different economic setting.

Revenues dropped last year even though they collected a vast majority of their corporate money (season ticket/private box renewals, advertising dollars) before the recession hit.

If you think they're going to collect same amount of money in much worse conditions, you are sadly mistaken.

[stevkrause 1,247]

It will drop again because now they're trying to collect all these corporate dollars in a much different economic setting.

Revenues dropped last year even though they collected a vast majority of their corporate money (season ticket/private box renewals, advertising dollars) before the recession hit.

If you think they're going to collect same amount of money in much worse conditions, you are sadly mistaken.

I guess we view the economy in a different way then... I see it leveled out at the bottom and not going lower, you clearly think it's going to dip even further...

[Frozen-Man 144]

The NHL didn't lose that much though, that's the point, had they not induced the 5% inflator this year, the cap would have only dropped by about 2.5 million and I do not see it dropping again this upcoming year, but rather, staying even... so the rational drop next year, would be around the 2-2.5 range... I'm not an economist, but I do follow financial trends a little bit...

The problem is that most advertising contracts, season tickets and season suites are bought almost a year in advance. The cap did not drop that much because the 2008-2009 major season revenues (advertising and season tickets/suites) were locked up during the first part of 2008 and the recession had not hit yet. The $2-2.5M cap drop (if not for the inflator) was largely because of single game tickets, parking, concession sales, and memorabilia but didn't really include the big ticket items I mentioned earlier. It is those big contract items that are likely to cause a large cap drop because the main selling times for those items ran concurrent with the (hopefully) low point of the recession. It is likely that the cap drop may be very large this next season.

[MacK_Attack 108]

I guess we view the economy in a different way then... I see it leveled out at the bottom and not going lower, you clearly think it's going to dip even further...

No, but what I'm trying to tell you is that the NHL is right now trying to collect money from corporations while the economy is at rock bottom. The last time they did this was last summer before things had fallen apart. The NHL collects most of its revenue during the summer and early fall.

It seems pretty obvious why there's going to be a lot less money available this time around.

[Opie 308]

Which means that the Hawks have about 6 mil to spend on the rest of its roster, that is not enough to sign any of their free agents unless they take a massive, and I mean 50% pay cut.

[stevkrause 1,247]

No, but what I'm trying to tell you is that the NHL is right now trying to collect money from corporations while the economy is at rock bottom. The last time they did this was last summer before things had fallen apart. The NHL collects most of its revenue during the summer and early fall.

It seems pretty obvious why there's going to be a lot less money available this time around.

fair enough, I see your point... I still don't see it dropping the full 6 though...

[Brevard 6]

The problem is that most advertising contracts, season tickets and season suites are bought almost a year in advance. The cap did not drop that much because the 2008-2009 major season revenues (advertising and season tickets/suites) were locked up during the first part of 2008 and the recession had not hit yet. The $2-2.5M cap drop (if not for the inflator) was largely because of single game tickets, parking, concession sales, and memorabilia but didn't really include the big ticket items I mentioned earlier. It is those big contract items that are likely to cause a large cap drop because the main selling times for those items ran concurrent with the (hopefully) low point of the recession. It is likely that the cap drop may be very large this next season.

1st Walk up ticket sales in the NHL increased last year, as did overall attendance.

2nd Economic downturn pretty much bottomed out before the end of the 2nd Q of 2009.

Revenues will be impacted much less than you think.

Hawk specific, ...

Not sure if any follow the team closely but they have several forwards pretty close to making it to the NHL. Toews, Kane and Keith already have a cap hit of 8 million per year. Most expect that they will end up getting about 15 million total per on 2 or 3 year deals. So reality is the Hawks need to shed 7 million + whatever the cap decline is ... if any.

Move #1

Sopel and a 2010 2nd rd pick to team XXX for AHL fodder = 2.333m saved

(8 D-men signed to 1 way deals now.)

Move #2

Madden deal expires replaced by youth on ELC = 1.850m saved

Move#3

Trade of a forward replaced by youth on ELC = 2.100 saved

(Versteeg or Byfuglien both earn right at 3m per)

Move #4

Brown buyout disappears = .456 saved

That totals 6.639m. the team is not really weaker and honestly I expect them to move both Versteeg and Byfuglien because they have 4 kids cominig ... 2 of which appear to be top 6 probables.

[BlackhawksFan 4]

Keeping KTK can be done, but I don't think Tallon has the fortitude or financial aptitude to do it.

I even made a little spreadsheet: Sendspace

It's certainly possible, and this of course makes the Blackhawks a little forward-heavy and goaltending-weak, but it's just a possible scenario.

[beepbeep 3]

Lotta people said the same things about the Penguins a year ago but they managed to work everything out so don't get too

[zrf 0]

I hardly consider those 2 equal... they will have no more than 2 quality NHL defensemen next year after this mess, we have 6... they will have MAYBE 4 top 6 players locked up, we already have 4 locked up and the supporting cast we have locked up is FAR superior to what they will have left going into 10-11...

That's just not true.

I personally think Kane will be let go if anyone is out of the big three, which means they'll have their entire stable (hopefully minus Campbell) back after next year. It's ridiculous how you can claim you guys have 6 quality D men (which I think you do), then calim the Hawks only will have 2. Even if one of Keith, Seabrook, or Barker ( I think they should trade him while his stock is high because his hockey instincts suck) is traded, they'll have the 2 remaining players plus Hjarlmarsson and at least one of Johnson or Hendry. Not nearly the dire straits picture you try to paint on D.

[zrf 0]

They better trade Campbell for a stay at home D-man.

Playing 4 guys in the o-zone will suck when it is Huet or Crawford back there.

Making it to the WCF was great, however how many teams make it back the next year. Sure this year two teams did, but that is rare.

Their offense imo, needed no help, Hossa is as much overkill there as he was in Detroit. They need D badly, and as it is now they are probably going to lose Sopel in order to sign Hossa and Kopecky.

One less solid defender.

BTW where are all the people that s*** on the Pens for having the team built by the draft by sucking for years, Chi anyone?

Sopel is NOT a solid defender, being 1-2 notches better than Matt Walker (who had no business playing in the NHL he was that bad) which is not a compiment. So long as Q isn't ******* retarded and gets a hard on for him like he did for Walker, Sopel likely won't even be in our top 7 and will either be traded or sent to rot in the minors (behind Seabs, Keith, Campbell, Barker, Hjarlm, Johnson, and Hendry). If Tallon does his job Q won't have the chance to screw this up.

[zrf 0]

Keeping KTK can be done, but I don't think Tallon has the fortitude or financial aptitude to do it.

I even made a little spreadsheet: Sendspace

It's certainly possible, and this of course makes the Blackhawks a little forward-heavy and goaltending-weak, but it's just a possible scenario.

I think even the most optimistic fan realizes somebody is going to have to be traded to make room to sign all three. Obviously it would be aweseom if the Hawks could unload at least one of Campbell or Huet, but he contracts are so bad there is no way one could realistically expect that to happen. I think the Hawks will have to unload 2 of Ladd, Sharp, Steeger, and Buff (my votes are for Sharp and Buff) and maybe Barker. This could net the Hawks some good prospects, unload some salary, and could potenitally coax a team into taking (along with the aforementioned players) one of our bad contracts in return.