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jmad

Crosby hurting Pens?

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What do you guys think of this?

November 24, 2009

Numbers On Ice

Strange But True, Crosby Hurting Pens

by Tom Awad

He's been called the best player in the NHL. He's the youngest captain to ever win a Stanley Cup. He's won the Art Ross, Pearson and Hart trophies. And this season his team is again perched near the top of the Eastern Conference despite a plethora of injuries to stars like Evgeni Malkin and Sergei Gonchar.

Given all of that evidence, this question is going to come as a shock, but some recent evidence has prompted us to ask: Is Sidney Crosby pulling his weight?

Crosby leads the team in goals and points, and supporters would argue that were it not for him, the Penguins might be languishing outside the playoff race instead of atop the Atlantic.

Well, maybe. It's true that Sid's traditional stats (10 G, 12 A) are pretty good and lead his team. But let's delve a little deeper.

First of all, Crosby gets a lot of ice time, and it's quality ice time. He has played more minutes (111) on the power play so far this season than any other player in the NHL except the San Jose Sharks' Dan Boyle. To the mystery of almost everyone who follows the NHL (myself included), the Penguins have had a terrible power play both last year and this year (24th last year, 29th this year), and Crosby's lack of productivity has been one big reason why. In fact, of the 128 forwards who have played 50 minutes or more on the power play this season, Crosby ranks 104th in per-minute offense, with 1.0 goals created* per 60 minutes (for more information on goals created, see explanation at end of column). That's less than a third of league-leader Dany Heatley's 3.8 and less than half of Malkin's 2.3. Also notable is that when Malkin went down with an injury, the team struggled, losing five of six, scoring only four goals in those five losses.

The numbers are kinder to Crosby at even strength: He ranks 28th in per-minute production at even strength, at 0.9 goals created per 60 minutes, although even here his numbers compare unfavorably with players such as Patrick Kane (1.4), Marian Gaborik (1.3), Dustin Penner (1.3) and archrival Alex Ovechkin (a league-leading 1.7).

Points and PIM

Sidney Crosby's PIMs are quite high relative to

the top point producers in the NHL, particularly considering

his total includes only one five-minute fighting penalty.

Here's how Sid the Kid rates against the league's current

top-10 point scorers as of 11/23.

Rank Player Points PIMs

1. Anze Kopitar 33 6

2. Joe Thornton 32 6

3. Dany Heatley 28 20

4. Marian Gaborik 28 4

5. Patrick Marleau 27 4

6. Zach Parise 27 4

7. Corey Perry 27 24

8. Brad Richards 26 2

9. Alex Ovechkin 25 12

10. Rick Nash 25 16

27. Sidney Crosby 22 35

Then there are the penalties. Crosby has racked up 35 minutes in penalties this season, which include nine minor penalties that offered his opponents a power play. Given that a typical penalty puts a team down 0.2 of a goal (between the opposing power play and the lost offense while being short-handed), that means Crosby's penalties have cost his team 1.8 goals over the course of the season. A skilled player like Crosby is supposed to be drawing penalties by forcing opponents to take him down, not giving the opposing team a chance to go a man up, yet Crosby has only drawn three penalties so far this season. Also dubious is that, unlike defensemen, he's not often forced to take penalties to avoid breakaways and other likely scoring opportunities. All told, Crosby's net penalty performance (penalties drawn minus penalties taken) is fifth-worst in the entire NHL, behind only Evgeny Artyukhin, Shane O'Brien, Marek Svatos and another notably skilled hothead, Ryan Getzlaf. Ask the Anaheim Ducks how constantly playing short-handed is working out for them this season.

Given all this, has Crosby been doing anything right? Obviously. He typically ends up playing against the opponents' best line, which takes the load off some of his less-talented teammates. It takes a special player to be on the ice for almost 22 minutes a game as a forward and to do so at a high level. He has even played 17 minutes killing penalties, during which time the Penguins have remained even with their opponents (two goals for, two against), with Crosby scoring a goal and assisting on another. It would just help a little if he spent more time on the ice killing penalties and less time causing them.

Possibly Crosby's largest unsung contribution this season has been in the shootout. The Penguins have been in four shootouts and Crosby has scored in all four, leading to four wins by the Penguins. This may seem pointless to fans who believe the shootout "isn't hockey," but those points count in the standings and will be well appreciated in April. The Atlantic has three very strong teams this season, and not winning the division crown will likely mean playing either the New Jersey Devils or Philadelphia Flyers in the first round.

All in all, Crosby has been decent this season, but nothing like the dominant No. 1 center he's renowned to be, and the player the Penguins need him to be to defend their title. When Crosby went down with an injury two years ago, Malkin raised his game to another level, showing the first signs of the superstar he has become. Crosby did nothing similar with Malkin out. With Malkin back, he can relax a little more, work on his power play, and take fewer dumb penalties. What's scary for the rest of the league is that the Penguins were still near the top of the Eastern Conference despite playing several games without Gonchar and Malkin and not having their leader play up to his superstar potential. If Crosby gets his game back and the Penguins return to full strength, the Cup champs will be the hands-down team to beat this season.

*Goals Created is a way of distributing credit for each goal scored, giving a higher weight to goals than to assists. Goals are given 1.5 times the weight of assists, and for each goal credit is distributed, such that a player who scores an unassisted goal gets 1.0 goals created, a goal with a single assist will be split 0.6 / 0.4 and a two-assist goal will be split 0.42 / 0.29 / 0.29.

http://www.puckprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=366

Edited by jmad

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Guest Shoreline

First off, there's no link to cite the copy/paste job. Second, whatever it is sounds like the Onion material. Laughable. No way this can be taken seriously.

Edited by Shoreline

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I don't know. The article seems like a long way to make the point that 34 penalty minutes in 24 games is a lot for a superstar player to take. Penalty minutes decease value in a hurry.

A lot of puck prospectus stuff falls on numbers so fast it's hard to read. but this one makes a little sense to me.

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I actually initially was shown a piece of this as an ESPN Insider article and it warmed my heart. :lol:

What I'm actually curious about is what kind of penalties is Crosby taking. Are they defensive mistakes leading to must-take penalties? Hot-headed retaliation slashes?

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A bit of a sensationalist title, but he does have a few points. He is not playing as well as he could be and taking too many penalties, but I don't think to the extent that he is hurting the Penguins to a significant degree. I think if we were worse in the standings it might have better timing but as is it kind of seems like they're pulling yet another Crosby article out of their butt to get people talking and boost readership.

I realize Malkin did have his shoulder problem, but even when he has been playing, both guys have seemed pretty quiet this fall compared to how I've seen them both play. Our power play overall DOES hurt us, though. I don't put that on Crosby alone as much as it is how mind bogglingly awful it becomes when Gonchar goes out. And even with him back in, we still have a pretty mediocre power play despite the offensive talent. I realize our players should shoulder some responsibility for that, but I'm not terribly crazy about Mike Yeo running it and kind of wish he would have been canned when Therrien was. :thumbdown:

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Guest zackmorris
First off, there's no link to cite the copy/paste job. Second, whatever it is sounds like the Onion material. Laughable. No way this can be taken seriously.

This is sadly what most people will say. I don't think we're immune from the relentless Nazi like marketing push the NHL has given Crosby. We're like any other hockey enthusiasts-Crosby can't be s*** on, no matter what and if you do, you're just "a hater". Period. I mean, the guy breaks down his analysis more than I've seen anyone break anything down on this board, and the first reply is just passing him off as laughable.

Whether it makes sense or not, it's not in any way laughable the way alot of people are saying it is. It's debatable, but not laughable. It's a bit of a sensationalist title but on the other end of the spectrum, I believe it's made up for with his incessant whining and pouting and still to this day a lack of any real quality defensive play. He's good at what he's good at, not good at what he isn't, it simply is what it is. But I think we've been a little brainwashed like most hockey viewers. I've been through marketing, it's my job. This is a slow, sure fire process. Crosmosis, if you will. Ba dum tss....lol

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Hmm... Nothing on him being one of the top faceoff men? That's interesting. Anyways on iPhone so can't get my real opinion on the matter right now. But I will say numbers don't have as big of an impact in hockey as baseball.

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To say that Crosby is "hurting the Pens" implies that they would be better off without him ... to even suggest that is asinine. If the writer could do away with the sensational headline and just make the case that he's not playing as well as he could, or perhaps isn't living up to the hype, he'd get a lot farther ...

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Guest zackmorris

I think it'd be smart to forget about the headline. That's to draw people in to read it obviously.

I think he's suggesting Crosby doesn't perform like the God we're supposed to believe he is. He's very good. Damn good. But he's not even the best player on his own team, has shown to disappear when truly shadowed, is a poor leader and still doesn't play good defense. He's a great player but there are guys I'd take over him. Give me Dats, Iginla, Hank or Getzlaf anyday all things considered.

Edited by zackmorris

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That article is extreme but it could have some truth to it. Crosby himself isn't hurting team. But his bloated salary certainly is. $9 million dollars for Crosby? If Crosby's worth is really $9 million, then Zetterberg and Dats should be making $9+ million /yr.

Penguins are paying 2 - 2.5 million more because of all the 'hype' he gets. Crosby is overrated big time. But I'd take him on this team for the price of one Hossa or Lidstrom.

Crosby's not hurting the Pens, his value-vs-salary is. He's overpaid.

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Hockey is so far behind baseball and even basketball in terms of modern metrics. Puck Prospectus is doing some really good stuff, and I'm happy to see they're not afraid to challenge conventional wisdom.

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Hmm... Nothing on him being one of the top faceoff men? That's interesting. Anyways on iPhone so can't get my real opinion on the matter right now. But I will say numbers don't have as big of an impact in hockey as baseball.

not that i agree with this article, but.........crosby handjob commence

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not that i agree with this article, but.........crosby handjob commence

What that is a legitimate concern of mine. Why would they leave off a statisic category as vital as Faceoffs for a centermen? It's not like I came in the thread posting Crosby with a Hart and a Cup saying he is the best.

Geez...

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