The Value of an Enforcer: Brad May/ The Misunderstood Point Sytem

[Guest E_S_A_D]

I thought I'd take a look at this from a statistical perspective on Brad May and his value.

Lets first take a look overall at the Red Wings plus / minus system. This is the most overlooked stat in hockey by novice fans. First off, please note, that the Red Wings are -1 at home and -5 on the road overall as a team as of 12/28/2009.

Here are your leaders in the frowned upon "-" category:

19 Derek Meech -5

20 Jason Williams -5

21 Brett Lebda -6

22 Brad Stuart -6

23 Justin Abdelkader -6

24 Jonathan Ericsson -7

25 Valtteri Filppula -8

26 Dan Cleary -8

27 Ville Leino -9

As you can see +/- can be deceiving; take Stuart who logs so much icetime and we're scoring so little goals it is inevitable he'll have a plus minus that's low.

Brad May is at -3. This is quite remarkable compared to the others considering his line's purpose is not to score. This represents a superior two way game that provides good defensive effort from a forward. Please note, he makes $500,000.

Brad May's job is not to score goals; rather, protect the goal scorers. That being said, our goal scorers will step up. Call me NostrE_S_A_Damus, because I will predict right now that when the Wings return from injuries they will surge into higher standings. I guarantee they make the playoffs, so quit sweating.

MVP for the season so far goes as follows:

1. Brad Stuart

2. Brad May

3. Brad , errr, Mike Babcock

The Doghouse Awards:

1. Ville Leino

2. Pavel Datsyuk

3. Brett Meech

Since the Enforcer thread was closed abruptly, I thought we could analyze it this time from a more sophisticated statistical analysis.

[Marty Barry 230]

You make a good point. The enforcer, while some (assholes) would like to run them out of the NHL, is a most invaluable tool. Sophisticated?

[Guest E_S_A_D]

You make a good point. The enforcer, while some (assholes) would like to run them out of the NHL, is a most invaluable tool. Sophisticated?

Very well put, sir. I'd rather have a team fresh come playoffs due to the 4th liners taking the brunt of the hard labor than peter out from exhaustion in game 7 of the Stanley Cup Finals.

[Doc Holliday 1,888]

What analysis?

Brad May is doing well. If the team was doing better as a whole I would expect him to be at least even right now.

Good for May and hopefully the Wings can get some wins together while the team is injured.

[Heroes of Hockeytown 694]

May's done a good enough job, I've got no complaints, but consider that May also plays the least of any Wing, against the opposition's least threatening lines (whenever possible), and his +/- is not really anything spectacular one way or the other.

Stuart is leading the team in blocked shots and SHTOI/G, and second in hits, so he definitely deserves a nod as one of the Wings' top players this season. Bert and Howard would get my other votes.

[Guest E_S_A_D]

What analysis?

I didn't get a reason from a moderator; however, I am guessing that the original thread was closed due to the offcourse nature of the discussion and direct insults to one and other. Rather than discussing a player. I believe that's the reason; as I have noticed there are far more Pavel Datsyuk threads than Brad May threads and those don't get closed. So I am thinking we must keep this one on track.

[Guest E_S_A_D]

May's done a good enough job, I've got no complaints, but consider that May also plays the least of any Wing, against the opposition's least threatening lines (whenever possible), and his +/- is not really anything spectacular one way or the other.

Stuart is leading the team in blocked shots and SHTOI/G, and second in hits, so he definitely deserves a nod as one of the Wings' top players this season. Bert and Howard would get my other votes.

Bert and Howard are definitely surging the last 6 weeks. Great points.

[Doc Holliday 1,888]

I didn't get a reason from a moderator; however, I am guessing that the original thread was closed due to the offcourse nature of the discussion and direct insults to one and other. Rather than discussing a player. I believe that's the reason; as I have noticed there are far more Pavel Datsyuk threads than Brad May threads and those don't get closed. So I am thinking we must keep this one on track.

Well my point is there isn't much to analyze. You aren't going to get much from Brad May's +/- considering he plays five minutes a night, but from actually watching him play you can see he has done well.

Good for him.

[Hockeytown0001 7,652]

Well my point is there isn't much to analyze. You aren't going to get much from Brad May's +/- considering he plays five minutes a night, but from actually watching him play you can see he has done well.

Good for him.

New name Doc?

[Z and D for the C 712]

Brad May has the highest +/- of that group because he plays the least. Get real.

So you think that the wings will be a better team once half the team gets back from IR? WOW! Can you tell me what I'm thinking right now? (actually that should be pretty obvious, tell me what I'm going to be thinking tomorrow)

Brad May being the MVP of anything is a hysterical notion. I hope you're kidding (MVPs would probably be 1 Howard 2 Stuart 3 Bert)

I sincerely hope you don't actually believe the things you said here and are just trolling.

Edited December 30, 2009 by Z and D for the C

[Doc Holliday 1,888]

New name Doc?

Added an L because the previous was misspelled.

[Detroit # 1 Fan 2,204]

He's done a great job this year, and if not for terrible officiating would have a goal and decent numbers. I wouldnt say he's been MVP though, I love Mayday but too many times we've needed to send messages and smash the faces of Blackhawk players and it didnt happen. My MVP's gotta be Howard, Bertuzzi, Stuart. I'm very glad we have May and when we're healthy I cant wait for the Anaheim/Chicago rough games, because then we'll be able to outscore them and still smash some faces

[wings1110 184]

to be honest with u even if fighting wasnt nesissary (which it is) i could give a s*** less its down right entertaining

[GMRwings1983 8,794]

He's done a great job this year, and if not for terrible officiating would have a goal and decent numbers. I wouldnt say he's been MVP though, I love Mayday but too many times we've needed to send messages and smash the faces of Blackhawk players and it didnt happen. My MVP's gotta be Howard, Bertuzzi, Stuart. I'm very glad we have May and when we're healthy I cant wait for the Anaheim/Chicago rough games, because then we'll be able to outscore them and still smash some faces

You must have missed the last 2 Chicago games, as well as the thread I started after them.

[Z and D for the C 712]

if fighting wasnt nesissary (which it is)

I agree, those 2 (TWO!) fights last game really boosted our offense and lead us to the win.

[Turkey 0]

How does +/- measure the value of an enforcer, specifically? If you want to say that his +/- demonstrates that May has played a decent defensive game and is a good grinder generally, then I'm right on board with you. If you want to make an argument about his value as an enforcer, I don't think +/- really proves anything.

This leads to an interesting question. How would one measure the value of an enforcer statistically? The only way I can think of would be to count hits and/or aggressive penalties (roughing, boarding, etc) before and after a fight. If hits and penalties like this decline after a fight, you could say that the enforcer might have played some part in that. If not, then you'd have to say that the value of an enforcer is, at best, an intangible.

[Wings_Dynasty 267]

I agree, those 2 (TWO!) fights last game really boosted our offense and lead us to the win.

I see what you did there. Laying on the sarcasm real thick.

[cjm502 165]

I agree, those 2 (TWO!) fights last game really boosted our offense and lead us to the win.

I wasnt aware we had any offense to boost. Thank you for pointing that out. You do understand fights are capable of boosting the opposing teams offense to right?

[Detroit # 1 Fan 2,204]

You must have missed the last 2 Chicago games, as well as the thread I started after them.

No, I didnt, and I agreed with you. May, Newbury and Janik needed to smash faces and didnt.

[DatsyukownzU13 1]

I thought I'd take a look at this from a statistical perspective on Brad May and his value.

Lets first take a look overall at the Red Wings plus / minus system. This is the most overlooked stat in hockey by novice fans. First off, please note, that the Red Wings are -1 at home and -5 on the road overall as a team as of 12/28/2009.

Here are your leaders in the frowned upon "-" category:

19 Derek Meech -5

20 Jason Williams -5

21 Brett Lebda -6

22 Brad Stuart -6

23 Justin Abdelkader -6

24 Jonathan Ericsson -7

25 Valtteri Filppula -8

26 Dan Cleary -8

27 Ville Leino -9

As you can see +/- can be deceiving; take Stuart who logs so much icetime and we're scoring so little goals it is inevitable he'll have a plus minus that's low.

Brad May is at -3. This is quite remarkable compared to the others considering his line's purpose is not to score. This represents a superior two way game that provides good defensive effort from a forward. Please note, he makes $500,000.

Brad May's job is not to score goals; rather, protect the goal scorers. That being said, our goal scorers will step up. Call me NostrE_S_A_Damus, because I will predict right now that when the Wings return from injuries they will surge into higher standings. I guarantee they make the playoffs, so quit sweating.

MVP for the season so far goes as follows:

1. Brad Stuart

2. Brad May

3. Brad , errr, Mike Babcock

The Doghouse Awards:

1. Ville Leino

2. Pavel Datsyuk

3. Brett Meech

Since the Enforcer thread was closed abruptly, I thought we could analyze it this time from a more sophisticated statistical analysis.

It's the most overlooked statistic for a reason. +/- is not a very relevant stat and thats why not many novice fans, or more experienced fans for that matter, shouldn't pay much attention to it.

Edited December 30, 2009 by DatsyukownzU13

[Z and D for the C 712]

I see what you did there. Laying on the sarcasm real thick.

Real thick, son. Real real thick.

[Guest micah]

I agree, those 2 (TWO!) fights last game really boosted our offense and lead us to the win.

Mike Babcock (in his infinate wisdom) did not bring May in to score goals, he brought him in to prevent some cheapshots. May is doing his job, don't blame him for the fact that our superstars are not producing.

[Z and D for the C 712]

May is doing his job

Right, shown by the fact that the wings have suffered the fewest injuries we've seen in years.

(Hey, I can probably do this all day!)

[Detroit # 1 Fan 2,204]

Right, shown by the fact that the wings have suffered the fewest injuries we've seen in years.

(Hey, I can probably do this all day!)

None of the injuries were due to cheap shots, head shots, punchs in scrums or being forced into fights. They've been fluke injuries, even Z got rocked by a clean check by Ohlund and the same can be said for Jackman's hit on Dano. May is detering any of the cheap s*** that was happening in past years, we just have s*** luck.

Edit: Forgot to mention, the one game where a cheap shot took out a player (Laraque on Kronwall), May wasnt dressed.

Edited December 30, 2009 by Detroit # 1 Fan

[ManLuv4Clears 7]

It's the most overlooked statistic for a reason. +/- is not a very relevant stat and thats why not many novice fans, or more experienced fans for that matter, shouldn't pay much attention to it.

I'm going to have to respectively disagree with this one. I think +/- is one of the more important stats as it shows the drive and defensive responsibility of a player as much it does their offensive ability. Whether you're a 1st line scorer or a 4th line checker you should never want to be scored on. It's all about skating hard and playing with motivation. Let's take Leino as an example, he's leading the team at -9 and he's bitching in the paper because his confidence is down and he's not scoring goals. The least he can do is skate his ass off, be physical, and be sound defensively. Babcock would then not bench his ass and then the goals would come. However in this "new" NHL a lot of these guys only care about scoring.

Bowman came here and instituted a defensive responsibility first culture starting with Yzerman and it lead the team to much success.