Ovi to pass the great one?

[Hutts11 3]

A few friends and I were in the garage talking hockey as we usually do. And this question came up. Is Alexander Ovechkin ever going to break Wayne Gretzkys scoring and points record, or is it just a matter of time before he breaks it? It's a pretty interesting topic if you think about it. Just want to know what everyones opinion is.

[Danglesmith08 0]

A few friends and I were in the garage talking hockey as we usually do. And this question came up. Is Alexander Ovechkin ever going to break Wayne Gretzkys scoring and points record, or is it just a matter of time before he breaks it? It's a pretty interesting topic if you think about it. Just want to know what everyones opinion is.

http://espn.go.com/nhl/notebook/_/page/buc...-gretzky-debate

ESPN still has one guy that cares about hockey. Oh, and Melrose.

[Namingway 146]

I really don't think it'd be possible in today's NHL. Unless some huge change happens and they make the goals twice as big as they already are or something like that. Gretzky played 20 or 21 seasons in the NHL and had 4 +200 point seasons and a few more close to that. In today's NHL you won't be seeing anyone even reach 200 or even get near that anytime soon in one season.

I think Ovie might have a chance to have more goals but yeah, he'd still be really far off from that.

Edited February 8, 2010 by Namingway

[Yzerman191 37]

Not a chance. At his current goals per game ratio, if one is to assume he won't decline (which he undoubtedly will, given his reckless style), he would have to play 1285 games, which amounts to about 15-and-two-thirds of a season. Pretty hard to imagine, unless you don't think he has peaked yet (Gretzky hit his peak at 22; Lemieux at 23).

And just for fun, in order to pass Gretzky in points, assuming Ovechkin doesn't decline, he would need to play 2,117 games (about 26 seasons) at his current PPG ratio.

[Tommy_Like_Wingy 25]

No, he won't even get close.

[Konnan511 1,736]

Goals 5%. Points -100%

[revnic 0]

Ovi has not entered his prime yet (27-31). However, I still don't think he can come close to Gretzky's total points. If he keeps scoring 50+ goals a year for the next 10 years goals isn't out of the picture.

[Guest micah]

No.

[theman19 47]

No.

It amazes me how little people think of Gretzky's records and how unbelievably difficult they are to break. Gretzky had a 92 goal season and a 87 goal season. This coming from a guy most people think of as more playmaker than pure goal scorer. In order for AO to break Gretz records AO is going to have to shatter his best totals by 30 or so goals,...ain't happening,..not in this era.

[Reds4Life 51]

He will if you adjust Gretzky's numbers to actually correspond with modern era hockey and not the ridiculous 80s with crappy goaltenders everywhere and no defense to speak of.

[theman19 47]

He will if you adjust Gretzky's numbers to actually correspond with modern era hockey and not the ridiculous 80s with crappy goaltenders everywhere and no defense to speak of.

yeah well, that didn't happen now did it?

I mean no offense but i hate these arguements. It doesn't matter if you adjust anything, speaking theoretically i can make numbers do whatever I want them too. Speaking in absoutles. I.E. Gretzky's 92 goals is likely never to be broken, is much harder to deal with.

Fact, adjustments be damned, unless OVie scores 70+ one season he'll never break it

end of argument.

[KrazyGangsta 79]

I hope he does, never was too crazy on Gretzky. Hope someone breaks his record, it's really a shame Lemieux had to go down with so many injuries or else he would of broke his records.

[egroen 384]

I hope he does, never was too crazy on Gretzky. Hope someone breaks his record, it's really a shame Lemieux had to go down with so many injuries or else he would of broke his records.

LOL, whatever...

[stevkrause 1,247]

yeah well, that didn't happen now did it?

I mean no offense but i hate these arguements. It doesn't matter if you adjust anything, speaking theoretically i can make numbers do whatever I want them too. Speaking in absoutles. I.E. Gretzky's 92 goals is likely never to be broken, is much harder to deal with.

Fact, adjustments be damned, unless OVie scores 70+ one season he'll never break it

end of argument.

I'll one up you and say that without at least 2 seasons of 70+ goals, he'll never even be close... as was already pointed out in this thread, part of what makes him so dynamic and amazing, is his reckless style of play, but that same reckless nature will also be what cuts him down... there is no way he'll play 15+ seasons of basically injury free hockey (ie, seasons not costing him 15+ games) with the way he plays...

[Hockeytown0001 7,652]

He will if you adjust Gretzky's numbers to actually correspond with modern era hockey and not the ridiculous 80s with crappy goaltenders everywhere and no defense to speak of.

I'd love to see Gretzky's numbers in today's NHL.

[cusimano_brothers 1,655]

In a word, no.

[Datsyuk2Zetterberg 1]

points - no chance in hell

goals - still pretty unlikely

[StevieY'sguy 1]

Joke of a question, Ovie won't sniff the all time goals record. AO is so good because he is a very fast skater and has probably the quickest wrists and hands in hockey which allow him to get off a shot from almost anywhere on the ice...well as the body ages speed of the feet/wrists/hands, etc. diminish greatly and thus so will 2 of his most important assets.

I see Ovechkin's career panning out alot like Pavel Bure's; 8-9 seasons of pure dominance than a sharp decline in production after the age of 30. Bure had some bad knees that likely robbed him of a couple more prime years and i see the same thing happening with Ovechkin, especially since he is a much more reckless and physical player than Bure was....although even if he stays completely healthy (for the sake of argument) he will not come close to the record, he's too dependent on natural talent that will diminsh and nobody in today's NHL has come close to displaying the goal scoring consistency for the length of time it would take to reach 99's record....

I'm not even going to comment on his chances at the points record, because I'm not sure it will ever be broken but Ovechkin won't even end up with as many points as Crosby, Crosby's game is designed to stay much more productive even as father time takes his toll on him than Ovechkin's is (kind of like Yzerman's game was as opposed to Fedorov's)

[toby91_ca 620]

The goal total is really the only one worth discussing. Points total, I won't even give a 0.1% chance, it's 0% chance of happening.

On the surface, the goal total is within reach and it actually doesn't look like it's all that difficult based on current pace, etc. However, the real issue here is scoring at that consistent pace and consistently staying healthy over a very long career. Those are the things that make getting there more difficult. Looking at Gretzky, after getting hit by Sutur from behind into the boards, his back was wrecked and he was not the same player since (this was at or just below the age of 30). You never know what will happen with Ovechkin.

If you want to compare stats at the same point in time, just for fun though (2 scenarios, both at 5 seasons and both at Ovechkin's current age - 24)

After 5 seasons:

Gretzky - 356 goals, 914 points

Ovechkin - 279 goals, 540 points (this assumes he scores 60 goals and 120pts this year, which may or may not happen)

At the age of 24:

Gretzky - 429 goals, 1,122 points

Ovechkin - 279 goals, 540 points

Probably also important to point out that while this is both at the age of 24, Gretzky would have just turned 24 and Ovechkin would be a few months away from 25.

[toby91_ca 620]

I'd love to see Gretzky's numbers in today's NHL.

I see people dismissing a lot of the totals Gretzky put up since he put them up in the 80s, but let's not forget how much ahead of the rest of the competition he was. I don't think I've ever seen a guy dominate the score sheet like him. 2nd place in the scoring race was a long, long way away most years.

Oh, and if you are going to try and bring his stats down, do the same for a guy like Howe, have you seen video of goals scored back then?

[egroen 384]

I'd love to see Gretzky's numbers in today's NHL.

A lot of people disagree, but I believe he would consistently put up 150+ pt seasons with a few monster 180+ seasons.

Gretzky would tear up butterfly goalies and thrive in a no clutching and grabbing league.

[stevkrause 1,247]

Joke of a question, Ovie won't sniff the all time goals record. AO is so good because he is a very fast skater and has probably the quickest wrists and hands in hockey which allow him to get off a shot from almost anywhere on the ice...well as the body ages speed of the feet/wrists/hands, etc. diminish greatly and thus so will 2 of his most important assets.

I see Ovechkin's career panning out alot like Pavel Bure's; 8-9 seasons of pure dominance than a sharp decline in production after the age of 30. Bure had some bad knees that likely robbed him of a couple more prime years and i see the same thing happening with Ovechkin, especially since he is a much more reckless and physical player than Bure was....although even if he stays completely healthy (for the sake of argument) he will not come close to the record, he's too dependent on natural talent that will diminsh and nobody in today's NHL has come close to displaying the goal scoring consistency for the length of time it would take to reach 99's record....

I'm not even going to comment on his chances at the points record, because I'm not sure it will ever be broken but Ovechkin won't even end up with as many points as Crosby, Crosby's game is designed to stay much more productive even as father time takes his toll on him than Ovechkin's is (kind of like Yzerman's game was as opposed to Fedorov's)

I agreed with you on every thing until your last paragraph... I think not only will Ovechkin finish with more points than Crosby, but at least 2 other current NHL players will finish their careers with more points than him as well... Crosby is injury prone and is yet to play a full NHL season (although his first year basically was - 81 games) and I don't see him playing more than a couple seasons more than AO...

[stevkrause 1,247]

A lot of people disagree, but I believe he would consistently put up 150+ pt seasons with a few monster 180+ seasons.

Gretzky would tear up butterfly goalies and thrive in a no clutching and grabbing league.

no way in hell...

He would probably PEAK at 120-130 and consistently be around 100, but with 4 lines rolling and the overall defensive nature of the position (as opposed to basically 5 forwards in the 80's) there's no way in hell he would come even CLOSE to his numbers he had back then - this is not to diminish what he did, or who he was, but be realistic...

Edited February 8, 2010 by stevkrause

[dobbles 252]

Ovi has not entered his prime yet (27-31). However, I still don't think he can come close to Gretzky's total points. If he keeps scoring 50+ goals a year for the next 10 years goals isn't out of the picture.

would just like to note that most statistical evidence points to a much younger age for prime scoring. i am too lazy to look it up, but pretty sure all top scorers peaked their point production before they were 25.

[stevkrause 1,247]

would just like to note that most statistical evidence points to a much younger age for prime scoring. i am too lazy to look it up, but pretty sure all top scorers peaked their point production before they were 25.

unless you're Babcock's hair - it's peak age started at 18 and will never end...