Ovi to pass the great one?

[toby91_ca 620]

And Gretzky's first professional year doesn't 'count' because it was in the WHA.

My numbers didn't include WHA, only NHL.

[Kwame_Kilpatrick 0]

ovechkin is a good shot, definitely a better shooter than gretzky he has much less to shoot at. ovechkin will probably be the best sniper ever and i think he will pass gretzky in goals but not points

[StevieY'sguy 1]

Lemieux's PPG was actually higher than Gretzky's until he came back from retirement.

Thanks for restating what I had just said 4 posts earlier and egroen corrected me on 3 posts earlier

[StevieY'sguy 1]

ovechkin is a good shot, definitely a better shooter than gretzky he has much less to shoot at. ovechkin will probably be the best sniper ever and i think he will pass gretzky in goals but not points

Snipers by definition are the most accurate shooters in the business. AO's career shooting percentage is 12.7% compared to Gretzky's 17.6%. Unless they change the definition of sniper to "the people who shoot the most" then AO has no business being given that label...he scored 56 goals last season but it took him 528 shots to do it...not stellar accuracy by a long shot (no pun intended).

[Kwame_Kilpatrick 0]

Snipers by definition are the most accurate shooters in the business. AO's career shooting percentage is 12.7% compared to Gretzky's 17.6%. Unless they change the definition of sniper to "the people who shoot the most" then AO has no business being given that label...he scored 56 goals last season but it took him 528 shots to do it...not stellar accuracy by a long shot (no pun intended).

to put the puck in the goal is not easy now maybe as it once was long ago, nobody will know but i think ovechkin would be scoring many goals in the 80s, many more than now. even with his shots it is still nice to see him score, at least he is trying. and this year his shooting is very nice, over 15% which is a good shot, usually 10% is nice for a forward but 15% is very nice

[StevieY'sguy 1]

to put the puck in the goal is not easy now maybe as it once was long ago, nobody will know but i think ovechkin would be scoring many goals in the 80s, many more than now. even with his shots it is still nice to see him score, at least he is trying. and this year his shooting is very nice, over 15% which is a good shot, usually 10% is nice for a forward but 15% is very nice

10% is not "nice" and 15% isn't "very nice", get your facts straight...Ovechkin is currently sporting a shooting percentage of 15.8...which is 1.2% higher than his previous career season high of 14.6% and much higher than his career 12.7% average so he is blowing away his previous seasons as far as accuracy statistics go and yet he still only ranks 25th among all forwards who have played in 45 or more regular season games....the only reason he is leading the league in goals is because he is leading the league in shots....Ovie only has 3 more goals than Crosby despite taking 48 more shots and only has 4 more goals than Marleau despite taking 62 more shots....If you want more bang for your buck you'd be much better served taking those 2 over Ovechkin because if Crosby or Marleau had as many SOG as Ovie they'd be way ahead of him in goals and i know at least in the case of Crosby, that has been an applicable fact pretty much the whole time both of them have been in the league together.

Edited February 9, 2010 by StevieY'sguy

[CanadaBoy 151]

Ovechkin also spend alot of time on ice

4th in PP TOI / game.

And 7th in TOI / game for all forwards.

He also takes very long shifts, only 2 seconds behind Kovalchuk who leads the league with 68 seconds / shift

Too bad he can't kill penalties (351st in SH TOI / game)

10% is not "nice" and 15% isn't "very nice", get your facts straight...Ovechkin is currently sporting a shooting percentage of 15.8...which is 1.2% higher than his previous career season high of 14.6% and much higher than his career 12.7% average so he is blowing away his previous seasons as far as accuracy statistics go and yet he still only ranks 25th among all forwards who have played in 45 or more regular season games....the only reason he is leading the league in goals is because he is leading the league in shots....Ovie only has 3 more goals than Crosby despite taking 48 more shots and only has 4 more goals than Marleau despite taking 62 more shots....If you want more bang for your buck you'd be much better served taking those 2 over Ovechkin because if Crosby or Marleau had as many SOG as Ovie they'd be way ahead of him in goals and i know at least in the case of Crosby, that has been an applicable fact pretty much the whole time both of them have been in the league together.

[egroen 384]

10% is not "nice" and 15% isn't "very nice", get your facts straight...Ovechkin is currently sporting a shooting percentage of 15.8...which is 1.2% higher than his previous career season high of 14.6% and much higher than his career 12.7% average so he is blowing away his previous seasons as far as accuracy statistics go and yet he still only ranks 25th among all forwards who have played in 45 or more regular season games....the only reason he is leading the league in goals is because he is leading the league in shots....Ovie only has 3 more goals than Crosby despite taking 48 more shots and only has 4 more goals than Marleau despite taking 62 more shots....If you want more bang for your buck you'd be much better served taking those 2 over Ovechkin because if Crosby or Marleau had as many SOG as Ovie they'd be way ahead of him in goals and i know at least in the case of Crosby, that has been an applicable fact pretty much the whole time both of them have been in the league together.

Though to be fair, you have to be open in order to take all those shots, or create those opportunities yourself, and Ovechkin is clearly the best in the league at that.

[StevieY'sguy 1]

Though to be fair, you have to be open in order to take all those shots, or create those opportunities yourself, and Ovechkin is clearly the best in the league at that.

Absolutely no argument here with that statement...the guy can get a shot off from just about anywhere thats for sure...I ust can't agree with calling him a "sniper"

Edited February 9, 2010 by StevieY'sguy

[dragonballgtz 273]

Absolutely no argument here with that statement...the guy can get a shot off from just about anywhere thats for sure...I ust can't agree with calling him a "sniper"

Sundays game made him look like a sniper to me.

[eva unit zero 271]

Shooting percentage is a two-way stat, so it can't be taken completely accurately.

Yes, it is a measurement of how many goals you score per shot, so in that sense it measures how accurate your shot is.

However, as has been stated, you have to be open, get yourself open, and create opportunities for yourself to be able to take that many shots. Which means that a player with more shots than someone else with a similar amount of goals is likely a better shooter.

But the real trick is, how do other players react to you? How does the rest of the league react to Ovechkin, Crosby, Marleau, etc? Ovechkin is always the guy who gets keyed on, and they try to prevent him from getting any shots. He still manages to get shots, and get a LOT of shots, and good ones. And get them in the net.

Elite snipers; Ovechkin, Hull, Lemieux, those kinds of guys...these are the guys where shooting percentage is just irrelevant. You have an entire team trying to shut the guy down, and they get a goal or two anyway.

Shooting percentage can be valuable information when comparing two guys who play similar amounts of time, focus on goal scoring a relatively equal amount, and are focues on by the opposing team an equal amount. But when you are talking about guys like Ovechkin who you just don't have comparisons to, there's no point in even looking at the stat.

Compare Ovechkin's sht% to Marleau's? Oh, wow. Yeah, because if the opposing team keys on Marleau like they do on Ovechkin, they leave open the Thornton/Heatley duo. That's a real similar comparison, isn't it? Yes, Backstrom is a very good center, but he's not Thornton, and Knuble sure as hell isn't Heatley.

[Coolio Mendez 7]

Nevermind comparing him to Gretzky........how about the fact that he has the LOWEST shooting % for a 50 goal scorer EVER (10.6%)? Who's record low did he beat last year to accomplish that? Well....his own! (12.2%)

All of that aside, I still consider him a "sniper" just because I have always looked at a sniper as someone who scores alot of goals........now I would get annoyed if they started calling him a "sharpshooter".....which I guess in it's truest sense is the definition of a sniper but just not through my eyes.

[daniel1 32]

He will if you adjust Gretzky's numbers to actually correspond with modern era hockey and not the ridiculous 80s with crappy goaltenders everywhere and no defense to speak of.

this is so true... ever watched highlights from the 80's? The goalies were horrible! They didn't butterfly much, were way smaller, had way smaller equipment and I think even I could have scored the odd goal against them lol.

[StevieY'sguy 1]

this is so true... ever watched highlights from the 80's? The goalies were horrible! They didn't butterfly much, were way smaller, had way smaller equipment and I think even I could have scored the odd goal against them lol.

This is very true but the most amazing thing (to me at least) about Gretzky's stats aren't the actual numbers themselves but the margin by which he was ahead of everyone else playing the game.

[Coolio Mendez 7]

this is so true... ever watched highlights from the 80's? The goalies were horrible! They didn't butterfly much, were way smaller, had way smaller equipment and I think even I could have scored the odd goal against them lol.

Be careful when you say that goaltending from the 80s were horrible. Steve Yzerman, Mario Lemieux, and Joe Sakic have all said that they felt the technical ability of goaltenders was better in the 80s than it is today (Mario has gone so far as to use Gilles Meloche in modern equipment and found that at 58 years old, Meloche's reflexes in modern equipment are faster than Fleury's...and when Fleury used Meloche's equipment, he could barely move).

Mario's also gone as far as saying that both he and Gretzky could put up similar numbers today as 25 years ago because a large part of their ability was brains and they would have those regardless of the era in which they were in.

Now, enough of what Mario thinks (although he does have a point on goaltending equipment having more to do with the reduction in GAA than the goaltenders themselves).

I think it's too difficult to answer. Ovechkin has played his entire career in the 'big pad' era and been coached using offensives designed in that era. It forces players to play in that mindset, just as the 60s 70s, and 80s had players playing with the 'slapshot from the boards' mentality which was unheard of in the 40s and 50s. There were articles in the 60s wondering how many MORE goals Richard would have scored if he had played in the era where players took slapshots indiscriminately (a rare event at the Montreal Forum until late in Richard's career).

Yzerman, Sakic, and Lemieux know a thing or two about the evolution of NHL goaltending having careers spanning 20+ years each....so if they say the goaltending is no better, you have to believe them. Lemieux knows a thing or two about using smarts in hockey, so if Lemieux says that players like him and Gretzky would have adjusted accordingly, you have to believe him.

Edited February 10, 2010 by Coolio Mendez

[AtomicPunk 296]

How in the heck is this still being discussed?? He isn't going to catch him. Different era. I don't see a lot of 8-6 games these days.

[BeeRYCE 2]

Goals is a possibility, but doubtful. A lot of people expect Ovechkin's career to be cut short... But if he were to play 20 seasons, he could average 45 goals per season his entire career, which adds up to 900... So it's possible that Ovechkin could break Gretzky's goal record, unless as I say, his career gets cut short.

I think there is a possibility of Crosby getting 2000 points though. I think he'll last 22 seasons (retiring at 40) averaging 90-100 points. For him to get 2000 points, he'd have to average about 91 points per season, which is very possible.

Let's assume the following were to play 1487 games in their respective careers (which Gretzky played)...

- Crosby would be on pace for 2013 points

- Ovechkin would be on pace for 2006 points

- Malkin would be on pace for 1846 points

I doubt none of which will maintain the same pace for their entire careers. Things will start slipping the last 5-7 years of their careers.

I think it's very unlikely though for both feats... If Ovechkin kept up the same pace for a career of 1487 games, he'd wind up with 1035 goals, but for one, I don't think he'll play that many games, and two, if he does, he definitely won't keep up the same pace as he gets older.

Edited February 10, 2010 by BeeRYCE

[Pepist 3]

Shooting percentage is a two-way stat, so it can't be taken completely accurately.

Compare Ovechkin's sht% to Marleau's? Oh, wow. Yeah, because if the opposing team keys on Marleau like they do on Ovechkin, they leave open the Thornton/Heatley duo. That's a real similar comparison, isn't it? Yes, Backstrom is a very good center, but he's not Thornton, and Knuble sure as hell isn't Heatley.

To be fair, Backstrom's career PPG is better than Thorntons, and his first three seasons are considerably better than Thorntons. He's got more points than Thornton right now, and he was w/o Ovi for quite some time this season. Right now, I'd say it's a toss-up who's better, but it's certainly not so obviously Thornton as you make it sound..

On topic, I can't see how anyone could pass Gretzky's ridiculously inflated numbers.

[Hockeytown0001 7,652]

To be fair, Backstrom's career PPG is better than Thorntons, and his first three seasons are considerably better than Thorntons. He's got more points than Thornton right now, and he was w/o Ovi for quite some time this season. Right now, I'd say it's a toss-up who's better, but it's certainly not so obviously Thornton as you make it sound..

On topic, I can't see how anyone could pass Gretzky's ridiculously inflated numbers.

It would certainly be easy if goalies were forced to go back to the seemingly microscopic equipment they played with in yesteryear compared to today's netminders.

[Doc Holliday 1,888]

It amazes me that Ovechkin's SOG is used to knock him.

The guy takes a lot of shots. That provides more rebounds and more opportunities to score for the team in general. His numbers also speak for themselves.

Also, he isn't going to pass Gretzky, ever.

[Buppy 1,720]

Interestingly enough, I adjusted OV's numbers by the difference in scoring each year compared to Gretzky's first 5 years (and projected OV to finish with 60 this year, his approximate pace thus far).

In round numbers it comes out to:

59, 60, 94, 74, 84 = 371

Almost eerily similar to Gretky's numbers:

51, 55, 92, 71, 87 = 356

But still, no. I really doubt he will average over 40 goals for another 15 years. My guess is he starts tailing off dramatically in another 5 or so. Realistically, I wouldn't bet on him matching Yzerman's numbers, much less Wayne's.