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The Team and Their Goalie


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#1 Rufio

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Posted 17 March 2010 - 03:01 PM

So I happened upon this website that was linked by the Red Wings official blog which had this statistical analysis of how the Wings skaters played of front of Osgood compared to Howard. I don't know where he gets the stats from but they're very interesting, he has a whole bunch of stuff I never knew existed.

Anyway, some interesting little facts from the post:

The evil, useless, hopless -- Brett Lebda:
Believe it or not, Brett Lebda is actually a plus player with Jimmy Howard in net. The often-criticized Illinoisan is a pretty respectable +7 with Howard, but -6 with Osgood. When you take into account the minutes he plays for the Wings, +7 is comparable to even his best teammates.

At least Val Filppula likes you, Ozzie:
With Chris Osgood as his netminder, Valtteri Filppula is a rare Wing with a net gain -- the other two being Kirk Maltby and Drew Miller. Miller has enjoyed Osgood's company the most with a +4 rating and Fil and Maltby at +2. The curious thing about "Flip" is that in front of "Jimmeh", his play seems to suffer 5 on 5, being on the ice for 7 more goals against than for.

The Numbers don't lie:
Osgood is one of the all-time greats, but this season, whether he is to blame or not, the Wings' most important players have been better in front of Howard. When looking ahead to the run to make the playoffs and beyond, it's difficult to ignore these numbers:

Lidstrom: Ev w/Osgood, +15 w/Howard
Datsyuk: -3 w/Osgood, +15 w/Howard
Rafalski: -3 w/Osgood, +18 w/Howard
Zetterberg: -7 w/Osgood, +12 w/Howard
Franzen: -1 w/Osgood, +2 w/Howard
Holmstrom: -3 w/Osgood, +12 w/Howard

In total, Osgood's mates combine for -85 whilst playing in front of him, while Howard's, +41.


I thought it was a pretty cool blog and some others would find it interesting.

#2 Doc Holliday

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Posted 17 March 2010 - 03:35 PM

It's really hard to compare +/- with players in front of their respective goalies when the goaltenders have started the way they have. Osgood has started two games since December and Franzen was out for most of the year. Also considering the team has been so much better the past 9 games (Howard starting all of them) hasn't hurt his case either.

Though I don't need these little +/- details to know Howard has been playing great.

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#3 Cheveldae32

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Posted 17 March 2010 - 03:55 PM

The stats are interesting and i'm not going to defend Ozzy cause I would rather see Jimmy in net but Jimmy has played 50 games to Ozzy's 19.....the odds would say the more you play the better chance you have at winning more games and having others play well around you.
i'm glad the stats favor Jimmy, I think we have witnessed the changing of the guard.

#4 wingsfaninMA

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Posted 17 March 2010 - 03:58 PM

The stats are interesting and i'm not going to defend Ozzy cause I would rather see Jimmy in net but Jimmy has played 50 games to Ozzy's 19.....the odds would say the more you play the better chance you have at winning more games and having others play well around you.
i'm glad the stats favor Jimmy, I think we have witnessed the changing of the guard.

yeah i totally understand what ur saying but those stats are DAMNING. the reason the author wouldve posted it is because of the huge disparity. -85 to +41????

come one thats crazy. even nick isnt a plus. im not saying that he would still be even with ozzy after 50 games but do u really think he'd be +15??? I doubt it...

#5 Doc Holliday

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Posted 17 March 2010 - 04:05 PM

yeah i totally understand what ur saying but those stats are DAMNING. the reason the author wouldve posted it is because of the huge disparity. -85 to +41????

come one thats crazy. even nick isnt a plus. im not saying that he would still be even with ozzy after 50 games but do u really think he'd be +15??? I doubt it...


If the roles were switched Howard would still have better numbers when it comes to the graph. But I still think it is misleading considering the injuries, line changes, and other issues when it comes to this team.

Howard is playing great and it is shown by watching him play. I consider this to be unnecessarily redundant (like comparing Howard's GAA and SV% to Osgood as a way to show Howard is playing much better this year. We already know that he is doing better).

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#6 wingsfaninMA

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Posted 17 March 2010 - 04:17 PM

If the roles were switched Howard would still have better numbers when it comes to the graph. But I still think it is misleading considering the injuries, line changes, and other issues when it comes to this team.

Howard is playing great and it is shown by watching him play. I consider this to be unnecessarily redundant (like comparing Howard's GAA and SV% to Osgood as a way to show Howard is playing much better this year. We already know that he is doing better).

this isnt talking about how well the goalies are playing but how well players are playing in front of different goalies. you should read the article. he clearly states that:

Osgood is one of the all-time greats, but this season, whether he is to blame or not, the Wings' most important players have been better in front of Howard.

#7 Rufio

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Posted 17 March 2010 - 04:22 PM

If the roles were switched Howard would still have better numbers when it comes to the graph. But I still think it is misleading considering the injuries, line changes, and other issues when it comes to this team.

Howard is playing great and it is shown by watching him play. I consider this to be unnecessarily redundant (like comparing Howard's GAA and SV% to Osgood as a way to show Howard is playing much better this year. We already know that he is doing better).

Right but this is a good way of statistically evaluating how the players are in front of the goalies. The author clearly points it out a few times.

Sure, the two stats (GAA and this) are connected, but the observations like Fil's and the fact that only THREE players are a plus with Ozzy, are of interest to me.

#8 drwscc

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Posted 17 March 2010 - 04:36 PM

Right, but *how* many games has Ozzie started in 2010? You know, since all the injured players came back and began to gel? Most of Ozzie's few starts last year were also the games the whole team crapped the bed. You can't start a goalie once a month with an AHL team, and expect the most stellar stats.

This constant Ozzie bashing is getting really pathetic. We get it. Howard is doing well. That's great. Good for him, the team, the fans, everything. But why does everyone have to crap all over Ozzie?
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#9 digitaljohn88

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Posted 17 March 2010 - 04:39 PM

What? Of course compared this way Ozzy is going to look terrible! Remember how everything happened?

Howard and Osgood were fairly even statistically for the first few months of the season. This was when the whole TEAM was playing like s***. Remember, Osgood was hovering around .900 - Not good, but not terrible. And then Howard played good a few games in a row - He's started 95% of the games since then. The TEAM has also played indisputably better, and not just because of a different goalie. Osgood has had maybe 3 starts since then, usually in back to back situations or against top teams. It doesn't make sense to compare their seasons like this. Howard has had 50 games of a more-healthy, much better defensively team compared to Osgood's 20 games when they were playing terrible and half the team was injured.

I could see this comparison being valid if they were alternating games and playing with the same guys, but let's be honest. Osgood hasn't had much of a chance to do anything this year. In my opinion, his stats might as well be invalidated. He's barely on the team.

This is not a knock against Howard at all. He's played very well and he fully deserves the starting job. I think Howard should and will start in the playoffs (if we get there), and do very well for us. I just don't see a reason to knock Ozzy down even further at the twilight of his career when he's had a season like this by making ridiculous statistical comparisons. You can't look at statistics in a vacuum.

Edited by digitaljohn88, 17 March 2010 - 04:41 PM.


#10 Rufio

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Posted 17 March 2010 - 04:41 PM

Wow there are some sensitive folk here. Ozzy-bashing? Seriously??

#11 digitaljohn88

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Posted 17 March 2010 - 04:44 PM

Wow there are some sensitive folk here. Ozzy-bashing? Seriously??


This article isn't so much Ozzy-bashing as a passive-aggressive stab that WILL generate negative bashing on this forum, all built on baseless stats that mean nothing taken in proper context.

They're all true facts and statistics, but the comparison just doesn't make any sense when you consider the situation.

I'm still behind Jimmy 100%. :)

Edited by digitaljohn88, 17 March 2010 - 04:46 PM.


#12 drwscc

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Posted 17 March 2010 - 04:50 PM

This article isn't so much Ozzy-bashing as a passive-aggressive stab that WILL generate negative bashing on this forum, all built on baseless stats that mean nothing taken in proper context.

They're all true facts and statistics, but the comparison just doesn't make any sense when you consider the situation.

I'm still behind Jimmy 100%. :)


This.

Everyone knows that Howard is playing well this season, and Ozzie did not look good in his appearances. So really, the article is worthless, because you can't compare the goalies or their situations, as they are not the same. This is not like previous years, where the Wings have platooned goalies, and you have a similar set of data.
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#13 wingsfaninMA

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Posted 17 March 2010 - 04:55 PM

This article isn't so much Ozzy-bashing as a passive-aggressive stab that WILL generate negative bashing on this forum, all built on baseless stats that mean nothing taken in proper context.

They're all true facts and statistics, but the comparison just doesn't make any sense when you consider the situation.

I'm still behind Jimmy 100%. :)

to be fair... i doubt the guy has written it with the intention of sparking an lgw war, its his blog. quoted from the article:

Regardless of any of this, for me, another debate would be redundant, my intention is solely to show, statistically, how the Red Wings' skaters play in front of each goalie with just a few notes from the plus/minus chart.

He's comparing the skaters. He even made a note of how poor flip is with howard. I find that interesting.

#14 Doc Holliday

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Posted 17 March 2010 - 06:36 PM

Right but this is a good way of statistically evaluating how the players are in front of the goalies. The author clearly points it out a few times.

Sure, the two stats (GAA and this) are connected, but the observations like Fil's and the fact that only THREE players are a plus with Ozzy, are of interest to me.


I'm aware of what the blogger points out, but is anyone surprised that statistically the team is better in front of Howard than Osgood because Howard has been playing better?

Like I said before, it is like saying the Wings have a better record with Howard than Osgood. It is unnecessary redundancy and brings no new information to the table. If there was a heated discussion about which goaltender is better this would be very interesting information. But it isn't. Howard is the #1 netminder for Detroit by a landslide and this is only once facet that shows it.

WingsfaninMA: You really going to try and say that the Wings players are somehow playing better in front of Howard than Osgood? Statistically they are performing better when it comes to goals against but that is in direct relation to the goaltender behind them. The Wings don't magically play better with Howard than Osgood. They have fewer goals to worry about with Howard than Osgood. And it is natural to have outliers in these statistical comparisons. Fil, Miller, and Drapes are good candidates for that.

Edited by Doc Holliday, 17 March 2010 - 06:38 PM.

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#15 Echolalia

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Posted 17 March 2010 - 06:42 PM

Statistics aren't for everybody.

#16 Drake_Marcus

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Posted 17 March 2010 - 10:46 PM

It's really hard to compare +/- with players in front of their respective goalies when the goaltenders have started the way they have. Osgood has started two games since December and Franzen was out for most of the year. Also considering the team has been so much better the past 9 games (Howard starting all of them) hasn't hurt his case either.

Though I don't need these little +/- details to know Howard has been playing great.


I agree that it's tough to make those stats hold a ton of water, but damn, it's hard to completely disregard them. This is a similar effect to what we saw in 07-08 when the Wings played completely different in front of Ozzy.
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#17 Doc Holliday

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Posted 17 March 2010 - 10:58 PM

I agree that it's tough to make those stats hold a ton of water, but damn, it's hard to completely disregard them. This is a similar effect to what we saw in 07-08 when the Wings played completely different in front of Ozzy.


I'm not completely disregarding them, I just consider it a strange stat to reaffirm what everyone already knows. Especially considering there are many better statistics to compare the two with.

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#18 Drake_Marcus

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Posted 17 March 2010 - 11:08 PM

I'm not completely disregarding them, I just consider it a strange stat to reaffirm what everyone already knows. Especially considering there are many better statistics to compare the two with.


I know man-- we're definitely in agreement here.
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#19 DatsyukianDeke13

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Posted 17 March 2010 - 11:18 PM




In topic: I'm with Drake_Marcus and Huckleberry here. I don't think these stats prove which goalie the players are more comfortable playing in front of, rather just an interesting observation.
Mixed feelings about this
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