Wings magic number at 11pts as of 3-27

[stormboy 47]

the standings being what they are before play on 3-27, the wings are six points ahead of calgary, and both teams have eight remaining games. the wings have 89 points, while calgary has 83. that means that the flames can get a maximum of 99 points this season. as such, if we get to 100 points, they cannot overtake us in the standings even if they win all their games. therefore, our magic number is eleven (any combination of eleven points gained by the wings or "lost" by the flames secures our playoff berth).

eleven points in eight games is a record of 5-2-1/4-0-3 or better. that sort of record is not that unfeasible considering our current level of play and our remaining opponents.

if the flames win tonight and we lose in regulation, our magic number will still be eleven, but we'll have to go 5-1-1 or better to *guarantee* 8th seed.

if we win tonight and the flames lose in regulation, our magic number will seven, with seven games remaining. that's a record of 3-3-1/2-2-3/1-0-6 or better.

i did a rough rundown of our schedule this year, and -- correct me if i'm wrong here -- i'm pretty sure we have only not gotten seven points in seven games only three (sort of...more like 2.5) times in any given set of seven games. (that's not starting at one and counting to seven, then starting over -- that's finding the worst possible sets of seven games and adding them up.)

the first was november 18-21, wherein we went 2-4-1 for five points.

the second, or the 1.5th time, was november 23-december 5, where we also went 2-4-1 for five points. i say the 1.5th time because both of these sets involve the same 3-game losing streak (during which we got shut out at home in consecutive games). it should also be noted that during this three game losing streak, our roster forwards included: justin abdelkader, ville leino, brad may, and mattias ritola (no franzen, filppula, or williams); our roster defensemen included: doug janik, as well as BOTH lebda and ericsson getting full-time duty.

the third (or second, depending on how you want to look at it) time was february 3-march 3, wherein we went 2-3-2 for six points. this streak included that AWESOME game against the kings where we went up 3-0 in the first and lost the game 4-3 IN REGULATION. (if we'd gotten to OT in that game, this streak wouldn't even be on the list.)

tl;dr -- we need eleven points to guarantee a spot. if we win and calgary loses in regulation, we need seven points in seven games to guarantee a playoff berth. even at our worst, we have only not gotten that seven points in seven games twice this year, and both streaks featured a much weaker roster than we have now.

edit: spelling

Edited March 27, 2010 by stormboy