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Hockeytown0001

Calgary Flames watch

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Detroit Red Wings Playoff Chances:

Beat Oilers 5-4, playoff odds up 0.4 to 99.7%

:clap:

Edited by CanadaBoy

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And if you look at that, even if we lost the remaining 6 games of the season, we'd still have a 66% chance of making the playoffs. A far cry from the 34% we were at a little over a month ago.

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And if you look at that, even if we lost the remaining 6 games of the season, we'd still have a 66% chance of making the playoffs. A far cry from the 34% we were at a little over a month ago.

Hush hush don't even think about it :ph34r:

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That's what you get for grabbing a bunch of Toronto Maple Leafs in order to make the playoffs.

Barrie likes this

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These stats dont' make any sense.

They're only 2 games behind Colorado. How can their chances be 3%? It'd be more like 25% when you think about it with common sense.

For instance, if they win tonight and Calgary loses, then that'll make the 3% look silly all of a sudden.

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These stats dont' make any sense.

that's what i was thinking earlier.

the wings have a 0% chance at catching the blackhawks? sure, it's awfully unlikely after the hawks W tonight, but were the guys at yahoo sports just grabbing numbers out of the air or what?

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that's what i was thinking earlier.

the wings have a 0% chance at catching the blackhawks? sure, it's awfully unlikely after the hawks W tonight, but were the guys at yahoo sports just grabbing numbers out of the air or what?

3% is just such a small number.

I mean I probably have a 3% chance of marrying some famous chick, but I think Calgary's chances of winning two in a row with Colorado losing two in a row have to be better.

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That's what you get for grabbing a bunch of Toronto Maple Leafs in order to make the playoffs.

Yeah... well except, you know... they've been better since those trades.

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No playoffs, no more Sutters in Calgary?

One would assume so but who knows- it's not like they're riding on recent success right now.

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I mean I probably have a 3% chance of marrying some famous chick, but I think Calgary's chances of winning two in a row with Colorado losing two in a row have to be better.

dude your chances will go up at least 10% when you hit 10,000 posts!

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3% is just such a small number.

I mean I probably have a 3% chance of marrying some famous chick, but I think Calgary's chances of winning two in a row with Colorado losing two in a row have to be better.

Dude-- that Cali guy is right. 10,000 posts? I'm simultaneously sickened and jealous. Here's the kicker... how many were about toughness, grit, hitting or fighting? :cool:

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These totally stupids stats flourish everywhere, i have seen them on HFboards also. I just don't understand where they come from and since when there is a possibility to predict the future so. Totally stupid as we see it now: the flames chances are much higher than 3%...

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Calgary has a 50% chance of making the playoffs.

Either they do or they don't. Pretty simple math.

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Calgary has a 50% chance of making the playoffs.

Either they do or they don't. Pretty simple math.

i'm not sure if you're joking or not. i know a guy who gets really irritated with weather people because when they say "there's a thirty seven percent chance of rain," he's all, "there's a fifty-fifty chance--either it's raining or it's not!" that doesn't stand to reason. there are two choices, yes, but that doesn't mean that each one of them is equally likely. like i said, not sure if you're joking or not...that's sort of a pet peeve of mine, so if you were kidding, congrats on successful trolling (intentional or otherwise)! :)

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I am wondering what program they use for their calculation...perhaps Microsoft Excel?

It might be possible...but I am not giving it a try...

Edited by Batigol2k

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i'm not sure if you're joking or not. i know a guy who gets really irritated with weather people because when they say "there's a thirty seven percent chance of rain," he's all, "there's a fifty-fifty chance--either it's raining or it's not!" that doesn't stand to reason. there are two choices, yes, but that doesn't mean that each one of them is equally likely. like i said, not sure if you're joking or not...that's sort of a pet peeve of mine, so if you were kidding, congrats on successful trolling (intentional or otherwise)! :)

There's a 50-50 chance. Either he's kidding or he's not.

Wings_Fan_In_Exile likes this

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i'm not sure if you're joking or not. i know a guy who gets really irritated with weather people because when they say "there's a thirty seven percent chance of rain," he's all, "there's a fifty-fifty chance--either it's raining or it's not!" that doesn't stand to reason. there are two choices, yes, but that doesn't mean that each one of them is equally likely. like i said, not sure if you're joking or not...that's sort of a pet peeve of mine, so if you were kidding, congrats on successful trolling (intentional or otherwise)! :)

Joking. I find it pretty meaningless to count percentages like that in hockey.. might be of help in poker or black jack or something but not in hockey.

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No playoffs, no more Sutters in Calgary?

I used to really like Calgary but the Sutter's are really hurting this team, Brent is a great coach but maybe should stick to junior. While Darryl on the other hand has not done a thing Ive liked, Im not sure ever lol He bothers me, alot!

Step in Yzerman?

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Well, as of today, they're up to 10.6%.

And to explain how they're calculated over there, it's based on simulations:

Sports Club Stats calculates each team’s odds of making the playoffs, how each upcoming game will impact those odds, and how well they have to finish out to have a shot. It knows the season schedule and scores for past games. Each night it grabs any new scores from the internet and simulates the rest of the season by randomly picking scores for each remaining game. The weighted method takes the opponents record and home field advantage into account when randomly picking scores, so the better team is more likely to win. The 50/50 method gives each opponent an equal chance of winning each game. Both methods let an appropriate percent of games end in a tie or go into overtime in leagues where that matters. When it’s finished "playing" all the remaining games it applies the league’s tie breaking rules to see where everyone finished. It repeats this random playing out of the season million of times (try it yourself), keeping track of how many "seasons" each team finishes where. Finally it updates this page with the new results for you to read with your morning coffee. To help flush out each team’s highest and lowest possible seeds, I force them to win or lose all their remaining games for a small percentage of the simulation runs. All the change columns are since the end of the last day that had games. Click the league (on the left) to compare all teams.

Odds of making the playoffs: The percentage of simulated seasons we made the playoffs.

So, to sum it up, through the millions of simulations that their program played, the Flames reached the postseason in 10.6% of all simulations. It's not an exact science (and I'm sure as hell not a math guy), but it makes sense to me.

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The Accuscore version doesn't hold out that much hope for the Flames. 4%, there.

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