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Calgary Flames watch


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#21 dat's sick

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Posted 01 April 2010 - 08:03 AM

i'm not sure if you're joking or not. i know a guy who gets really irritated with weather people because when they say "there's a thirty seven percent chance of rain," he's all, "there's a fifty-fifty chance--either it's raining or it's not!" that doesn't stand to reason. there are two choices, yes, but that doesn't mean that each one of them is equally likely. like i said, not sure if you're joking or not...that's sort of a pet peeve of mine, so if you were kidding, congrats on successful trolling (intentional or otherwise)! :)

Joking. I find it pretty meaningless to count percentages like that in hockey.. might be of help in poker or black jack or something but not in hockey.

#22 cusimano_brothers

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Posted 01 April 2010 - 08:26 AM

Their Captain says they will.

"Mess up tomorrow, don't mess up now".

- Harry James Benson, CBE.


#23 13dangledangle

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Posted 01 April 2010 - 08:28 AM

No playoffs, no more Sutters in Calgary?


I used to really like Calgary but the Sutter's are really hurting this team, Brent is a great coach but maybe should stick to junior. While Darryl on the other hand has not done a thing Ive liked, Im not sure ever lol He bothers me, alot!
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#24 edicius

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Posted 01 April 2010 - 09:02 AM

Well, as of today, they're up to 10.6%.

And to explain how they're calculated over there, it's based on simulations:

Sports Club Stats calculates each teamís odds of making the playoffs, how each upcoming game will impact those odds, and how well they have to finish out to have a shot. It knows the season schedule and scores for past games. Each night it grabs any new scores from the internet and simulates the rest of the season by randomly picking scores for each remaining game. The weighted method takes the opponents record and home field advantage into account when randomly picking scores, so the better team is more likely to win. The 50/50 method gives each opponent an equal chance of winning each game. Both methods let an appropriate percent of games end in a tie or go into overtime in leagues where that matters. When itís finished "playing" all the remaining games it applies the leagueís tie breaking rules to see where everyone finished. It repeats this random playing out of the season million of times (try it yourself), keeping track of how many "seasons" each team finishes where. Finally it updates this page with the new results for you to read with your morning coffee. To help flush out each teamís highest and lowest possible seeds, I force them to win or lose all their remaining games for a small percentage of the simulation runs. All the change columns are since the end of the last day that had games. Click the league (on the left) to compare all teams.

Odds of making the playoffs: The percentage of simulated seasons we made the playoffs.



So, to sum it up, through the millions of simulations that their program played, the Flames reached the postseason in 10.6% of all simulations. It's not an exact science (and I'm sure as hell not a math guy), but it makes sense to me.





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#25 Casey

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Posted 01 April 2010 - 09:27 AM

The Accuscore version doesn't hold out that much hope for the Flames. 4%, there.
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#26 cupforwings

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Posted 01 April 2010 - 09:43 AM

I hope they make it and beat San Jose in the first round because Colorado won't

#27 GMRwings1983

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Posted 01 April 2010 - 11:54 AM

Dude-- that Cali guy is right. 10,000 posts? I'm simultaneously sickened and jealous. Here's the kicker... how many were about toughness, grit, hitting or fighting? :cool:


I'd say about 14.7%.


10,000th post! :siren: :!: :clap: :cool:
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#28 mindfly

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Posted 01 April 2010 - 12:03 PM

wow 10k posts in less than 3 years :yowza:

#29 Echolalia

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Posted 01 April 2010 - 12:06 PM

I'd say about 14.7%.


10,000th post! :siren: :!: :clap: :cool:


I'm honored to be here for it :)

#30 GMRwings1983

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Posted 01 April 2010 - 12:06 PM

wow 10k posts in less than 3 years :yowza:


You can do it mindfly. :P

Actually, that makes me feel like a nerd. I need to get a job real soon, or else I'll have a 3.9% chance of being a somebody.

So wait, does this mean I can become a mod now? Or do I get a free lifetime supply of chocolate, like in Willy Wonka?

Edited by GMRwings1983, 01 April 2010 - 12:09 PM.

According to my profile, my reputation is excellent. LOL.

#31 titanium2

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Posted 01 April 2010 - 12:14 PM

You can do it mindfly. :P

Actually, that makes me feel like a nerd. I need to get a job real soon, or else I'll have a 3.9% chance of being a somebody.

So wait, does this mean I can become a mod now? Or do I get a free lifetime supply of chocolate, like in Willy Wonka?


You've joined the class of Eva Unit Zero, Matt, Shoreline, Heroes of Hockeytown, Detroit #1 Fan, YoungGuns1340, Norrisnick, Puckloo39, HockeyCrazy3033, NeverForgetMac25, Edicius and SouthernWingsFan.

You're lucky 13.

#32 ilmickeyli

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Posted 01 April 2010 - 12:17 PM

GMR is now free to bait and troll as he sees fit! :siren: :siren: :thumbup: :thumbup:
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#33 NeverForgetMac25

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Posted 01 April 2010 - 01:32 PM

You've joined the class of Eva Unit Zero, Matt, Shoreline, Heroes of Hockeytown, Detroit #1 Fan, YoungGuns1340, Norrisnick, Puckloo39, HockeyCrazy3033, NeverForgetMac25, Edicius and SouthernWingsFan.

You're lucky 13.

Oh, the ridiculous hours I spend on LGW. :nonono:
It's amazing how much clarity comes when you care more about the Red Wings than any individual player.


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#34 titanium2

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Posted 01 April 2010 - 01:40 PM

Oh, the ridiculous hours I spend on LGW. :nonono:


You know you're proud of it and you love it.

#35 gcom007

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Posted 01 April 2010 - 02:45 PM

You know, I'm not counting the Blues out yet. If you look at Calgary's, Colorado's and the Blues' schedules, the Blues have likely the easiest of the bunch, plus a game in hand over Calgary.

If the Blues beat the Preds tonight and the Flames beat the Av's tomorrow, there'll still be a 4 point gap, but again, the Blues have got an extra game on the Flame's and after tonight, only one game against a Playoff team (Chicago). They need to win tonight though to be able to write off a potential loss to Chicago.

The Flames don't have an easy road in to the 8th spot. 3 out of their 5 remaining games are against the current top seeds out of the West. Tomorrow they play the Av's, and if they win, they're tied at 89 points for 8th. I think they've got a good shot at that one, which would be good for the Blues chances if they're able to pull off a win tonight against the Preds. After all, the Av's face top seeds from the division in 3 of their last 6 games as well.

The Blues need to pick up 10 points out of their remaining 12, but I think it's doable with their remaining schedule if they keep playing well. I think they've got a real good chance of passing Calgary in the running in any event, and if the Av's continue to slide, then they very well could sneak into the 8th and final spot.

Sure, it'd be a feat, but they did it last year. If anyone is going to sneak in, St. Louis certainly knows how.

-Elliot


#36 edicius

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Posted 01 April 2010 - 02:57 PM

Oh, the ridiculous hours I spend on LGW. :nonono:


Don't feel bad, I'm only a couple weeks away from hitting 20K. :P

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#37 GMRwings1983

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Posted 01 April 2010 - 03:17 PM

Don't feel bad, I'm only a couple weeks away from hitting 20K. :P


In less than 5 years.

Wow, what a loser! :hehe:
According to my profile, my reputation is excellent. LOL.

#38 13dangledangle

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Posted 01 April 2010 - 03:59 PM

I'm envious of all mentioned here...post on my friends!!
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#39 Drake_Marcus

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Posted 02 April 2010 - 04:48 AM

I'd say about 14.7%.


10,000th post! :siren: :!: :clap: :cool:


Congrats man. :)
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#40 Hockeytown0001

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Posted 02 April 2010 - 07:45 AM

Needless to say, Calgary's game against the Avs tonight is kinda a big deal.

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