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4/3 GDT: Predators 4 at Red Wings 3 (OT)

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#221 Doc Holliday

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Posted 03 April 2010 - 11:31 PM

That must be why Bertuzzi is such a better physical player than Helm, right?

You don't have to be huge to be a strong physical presence. Our single most dangerous hitter is 5'11" but I've never heard people say they want to cross the ice with their head down when Kronwall is out.

This. Big players are useless if they don't play their size. Smaller guys going at high speeds are still carrying hundreds of pounds of weight and that weight is going to hurt if they do it right and often.

Size helps a lot, but only if they use it.

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#222 Drake_Marcus



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Posted 03 April 2010 - 11:42 PM

The one difference that we unfortunately might see in the long run is with injuries to the smaller players that like to play like that. Helm seems like he's pretty sturdy so far though, which is encouraging.

Agreed. One thing about Helm is he seems like he can take crazy huge hits and just jump back up. It seems like he gets destroyed far more often than most guys but he's always quick to get back up to his feet.
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#223 stormboy


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Posted 04 April 2010 - 02:19 AM

we are a team on par with nashville, not good for a team wanting the cup

i'm not a hundred percent sure what you mean by that. we lost today's game, yes. if i'm not mistaken, we won the series 4-2, gaining a 9 of a possible 12 points from games against them.

they're ahead of us in the standings, but they average 1.225 points per game while we average 1.230. obviously not a significant difference, but ours is actually better (in other words, be have a slightly better points percentage than the preds, even though we are behind in the standings currently).

meanwhile, let's take a look at how we (and they) have fared against the west's top teams this year. we're 3-0-1 against the sharks this year (preds are 1-3-0), 3-1-0 against the canucks (preds are 2-2-0), and 2-0-2 against phoenix (preds are 1-1-1) and 2-2-1 against chicago, with the possibility of going 3-2-1 (preds are 2-4-0).

a few points could be taken from this: we have .500 records (as measured by points) against two top western teams and winning records against the other two, or 2-2-0 (winning-tied-losing). if you'd like to count chicago as a losing records (more losses than wins despite earning exactly half the possible points), then we are 1-2-1 in season series against the top western teams. by comparison, the preds are 0-2-2 in season series against the same teams; 0-1-3 if you're going strictly by wins/losses rather than points.
(again, that's winning-tied-losing season series.)

another way of looking at is would be to say that, against the west's top teams, we have earned 20 out of a possible 34 points (58%). by comparison the preds have earned 13 out of a possible 34 points (38%) against the same teams. (as a sidenote, it takes a 57% winning percentage to win a seven game series.)

looking at a few other points, our goals-for average is better (though only slightly), our goals-against average is better (again, not by a ton -- 0.2 goals a game) our powerplay is 3% better, our penalty kill is very nearly 8% better, we outshoot them and allow fewer shots, and we have scored more shorthanded goals while giving up fewer.

i fail to see how the predators are on par with the red wings.

here are the western teams against which the wings have losing record. (note that none of these teams will make the playoffs.)

blues 2-3-1; oilers 1-1-2; stars 1-2-1.

the preds' records against the same teams:

blues 4-1-0; oilers 3-1-0; stars 2-2-0.

a conclusion that you might draw from this is that the preds are where they are in the standings by feasting on weak western teams, while, for whatever reason, the wings are unable to get up for games they don't see as important. while that's not a trend i'm proud of, i think so far, the data suggest that the wings play much better against good teams in bigger games than against lesser teams in less important games. playoff games are of the former type rather than of the latter. i'd rather have the wings' problem than the preds'.

another bit about the standings:

wings record against eastern teams: 9-5-3. preds record against eastern teams: 12-4-2. so, while these records aren't hugely different, the preds have gotten a higher percentage of their points from out-of-conference games than the wings have. while i'm not trying to diminish the importance of any game, specifically any out of conference game -- especially since the SCF is played against such a team -- it's worth noting that out-of-conference games are more of a coin-toss than in-conference-games because the teams are less prepared for one another and know each other less well. in a seven game series, you damn well get to know the other team. so, i give the preds credit there for playing well in those games, and maybe this is just me reading the data with homer goggles on, but to me those games are less indicative of a teams quality than in-conference games, similar to the fashion in which -- at least to me -- games against good teams are more indicative of a team's quality than games against bad teams.

as another sidenote: i just spent the last 20 minutes trying to find a league-wide tally of "man games lost to injury." i realize that it's not an officially tracked stat, but this March 29, 2010 article gives some specific numbers on the subject (NYR, fewest with 61; EDM, most with 457). i'd be willing to bet the wings have a higher total than the preds, by far, and i remember seeing some charts on FSN detroit broadcasts, but i can't find those numbers right now. it would just be interesting to see how all of the aforementioned data becomes even more definitive when you take into account the number of lost man-games this year.

edit: even more long-windedness.

Edited by stormboy, 04 April 2010 - 02:35 AM.


go wings.

#224 Nev



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Posted 04 April 2010 - 02:37 AM

I was talking about the team in general, and no just today.

We must be the smallest team in the league as far as the 3rd and 4th lines go.

It'd be good to get guys like Williams and Meech off those lines and to replace them with bigger forwards who can actually wear the defense down instead of floating around aimlessly.

My problem with Williams & Meech isn't their size, but that they're just not very good hockey players. And that's being hard on Meech - he's a #8 dman asked to play forward, what can you expect?

Eaves, Draper & Helm are all undersized, but has there been a better 4th line in the NHL this year?
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#225 hokike



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Posted 04 April 2010 - 03:57 AM

it does not matter who Red Wings meets at PO 1st round - they are not favourites as usual, but at the same time, none of the opponents are too.

only Chicago has been clear cut favourite through the season but even they have dropped lately.
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Posted 04 April 2010 - 07:25 AM

Yesterday, the Wings were just lazy and they sucked. Today will be different. That's just how them Wings roll, baby!
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#227 Guest_mindfly (Guest)

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Posted 04 April 2010 - 07:31 AM

Start a Wings-Philly GDT thanks?

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