WCQF Game 6 GDT: Coyotes 5 at Red Wings 2

[Zenith 2]

This series has been a disappointment.

The way the Wings finished the season, I figured they'd have enough in them to make a deep playoff run, especially since many of our players were fresh having missed most of the season.

Instead, this team is playing nothing like it did since the lockout.

It's almost as if they used up all their energy in making the playoff push, and were satisfied with just making it in. This doesn't look like a group of players who are on a mission and are ready to make a playoff run.

First, I thought the Wings would not go deep in the playoff this year. The super hot play at the end of the season might raise our expectation but since our D has not been any good, especially Rafalski and Kronwall, I still could not see a chance of long run. And our weak faceoff has been causing the loss in this series so far.

And I agree with you. The team is actually showing no effort throughout the series. Although we are going to game 7, the Yotes were always hungrier than us in most of the series. If the Yotes win this series, they deserve it. The Wings in last two years have shown no heart in their games. Maybe the last year's long run despite the horrible defense throughout the year was candleight before it would be blown by the wind.

Regardless where our run stops in this playoff, I think our glorious day would be over this season. I would like to see some changes in the roster. Especially some new blood. I am not sure I am right but I think our veterans are showing no heart anymore except for Lidstrom.

[eva unit zero 271]

The chances that Game 4/5 Howard shows up on Tuesday are much, much greater than those of God-mode Osgood showing up.

Regular season Osgood won't win game 7, we'd have to pray that Ozzy just flips the switch.

It'd be utterly foolish to risk putting Ozzy in in game 7 at this point.

It comes down to this:

Howard's numbers if you take out Game 4:

Saves/Shots, Sv%: 122/139, .878%

GA, Mins, GAA: 17, 296:01, 3.45

SAPG: 28

Osgood's regular season statistics:

Saves/Shots, Sv%: 498/561, .888%

GA, Mins, GAA: 63, 1252:02, 3.02

SAPG: 27

So regular season Osgood was better than Howard has been for most of this series. If you assume you're getting regular season Osgood, or playoff Howard based on what he's done so far... what kind of risk are you willing to take? If you go further and add Game 5 into it, you're either looking at getting a strong goaltending performance from Howard, or you're looking at him allowing two or more weak goals, often killing the Wings' momentum. He has a GAA of 3+ in four games, and allowed two+ weak goals in all of those games. Yes he had strong performances in 4 and 5, but this has not been a pretty series for Howard. Based on his playoff performances, at best there's a 40% chance you get a strong goaltending performance. Regular-season Ozzie both this year and last year was consistently as good or better than the other 60%. So looking at it from a purely statistical standpoint, logic dictates Osgood. Now considering the fact that Howard had momentum behind him, two strong performances, and home-ice, and he came out and folded in Game 6 with a chance to close out the series... that suggests he is still nervous in his first series. I hope Babcock is willing to pull Howard in Game 7 if he starts s***ting the bed, rather than watch the Wings get eliminated but keep "his guy" in net.

[King Crane 289]

(in response to 97.1 ticket texters)

Dear Jimmy Howard,

I still believe in you.

Love,

Zachary

[Drake_Marcus 890]

It comes down to this:

Howard's numbers if you take out Game 4:

Saves/Shots, Sv%: 122/139, .878%

GA, Mins, GAA: 17, 296:01, 3.45

SAPG: 28

Osgood's regular season statistics:

Saves/Shots, Sv%: 498/561, .888%

GA, Mins, GAA: 63, 1252:02, 3.02

SAPG: 27

So regular season Osgood was better than Howard has been for most of this series. If you assume you're getting regular season Osgood, or playoff Howard based on what he's done so far... what kind of risk are you willing to take? If you go further and add Game 5 into it, you're either looking at getting a strong goaltending performance from Howard, or you're looking at him allowing two or more weak goals, often killing the Wings' momentum. He has a GAA of 3+ in four games, and allowed two+ weak goals in all of those games. Yes he had strong performances in 4 and 5, but this has not been a pretty series for Howard. Based on his playoff performances, at best there's a 40% chance you get a strong goaltending performance. Regular-season Ozzie both this year and last year was consistently as good or better than the other 60%. So looking at it from a purely statistical standpoint, logic dictates Osgood. Now considering the fact that Howard had momentum behind him, two strong performances, and home-ice, and he came out and folded in Game 6 with a chance to close out the series... that suggests he is still nervous in his first series. I hope Babcock is willing to pull Howard in Game 7 if he starts s***ting the bed, rather than watch the Wings get eliminated but keep "his guy" in net.

Why'd you take out game 4? Do you have a valid statistical reason or did it just not fit with your hypothesis?

[LeDs 0]

So far the Wings just lack the Hunger needed to Win the Cup. Scottie Bowman always commented it was important to have turnover in your roster in order to keep a successful team hungry.

[eva unit zero 271]

Why'd you take out game 4? Do you have a valid statistical reason or did it just not fit with your hypothesis?

Game 4 was the shutout. I removed Howard's best game statistically, to show how the rest of the series has been rather tragic.

But to support my point, of all starting goaltenders in the postseason, there are still 12 playing. Howard ranks 10th in save percentage among them, ahead of only Luongo and Fleury. Howard's numbers look much more like Luongo's or Fleury's than they do Boucher, Miller, or Rask. The Wings' D has made some mistakes, but the D is taking the blame for a lot of stuff that should fall on Howard, while Howard is getting off almost blameless with the "he's a rookie" line. Howie makes a mistake and it's expected that the D cleans it up because "he's a rookie" and if it turns into a goal, it's on the D not Howard.

Knowing Wings fans, though, Game 7 will see the end of that line. It's like 1994. Osgood came in to clean up after Bowman had started Essensa in the playoffs (despite Osgood having re-earned the starter job after Essensa being acquired) and led the Wings from being down 2-0 in the series against San Jose to being tied 3-3. But all people remember is one simple rookie mistake. Not the fact that the entire team failed to win, and that two other Wings could have played that puck before it got to Baker. We'll see how Howard does in game 7. If the Wings lose, he'll suffer the fires of hell for it from fans until he proves he can win in the playoffs, or he'll be traded. That's how it works, and always has worked. Whether it is right or not doesn't matter.

[RockyMountainWingGal 108]

Why'd you take out game 4? Do you have a valid statistical reason or did it just not fit with your hypothesis?

LOL - as a scientist if I reviewed this paper I would have to reject it on selective data-mining....

[Drake_Marcus 890]

Game 4 was the shutout. I removed Howard's best game statistically, to show how the rest of the series has been rather tragic.

But to support my point, of all starting goaltenders in the postseason, there are still 12 playing. Howard ranks 10th in save percentage among them, ahead of only Luongo and Fleury. Howard's numbers look much more like Luongo's or Fleury's than they do Boucher, Miller, or Rask. The Wings' D has made some mistakes, but the D is taking the blame for a lot of stuff that should fall on Howard, while Howard is getting off almost blameless with the "he's a rookie" line. Howie makes a mistake and it's expected that the D cleans it up because "he's a rookie" and if it turns into a goal, it's on the D not Howard.

Knowing Wings fans, though, Game 7 will see the end of that line. It's like 1994. Osgood came in to clean up after Bowman had started Essensa in the playoffs (despite Osgood having re-earned the starter job after Essensa being acquired) and led the Wings from being down 2-0 in the series against San Jose to being tied 3-3. But all people remember is one simple rookie mistake. Not the fact that the entire team failed to win, and that two other Wings could have played that puck before it got to Baker. We'll see how Howard does in game 7. If the Wings lose, he'll suffer the fires of hell for it from fans until he proves he can win in the playoffs, or he'll be traded. That's how it works, and always has worked. Whether it is right or not doesn't matter.

Howard was the best player on the ice in games 4 and 5. Shouldn't that count for something?

[eva unit zero 271]

Howard was the best player on the ice in games 4 and 5. Shouldn't that count for something?

It does. The question is, why was he that good in games 4 and 5, but so bad in games 1-3 and game 6? What caused the difference? What is the likelihood that we see the Howard we want in Game 7?

And furthermore, if we see the Howard who has played most of the series, does Babcock take the chance and go to Osgood with the chance that Osgood could still flip the switch and carry the Wings? Or does Babcock ride the horse off the cliff and hope there's a bridge?

[Guest ToMaToToWnWinGsFaN_24]

red wings had a chance to close it out on home ice, but blew it.

i wish CBC would carry game 7...even if it is Mark Lee (great) and Kevin Weekes (shudder)

edit: where was zetterberg today? this is the first game of this series he didnt even get a point.

Edited April 26, 2010 by ToMaToToWnWinGsFaN_24

[Drake_Marcus 890]

It does. The question is, why was he that good in games 4 and 5, but so bad in games 1-3 and game 6? What caused the difference? What is the likelihood that we see the Howard we want in Game 7?

And furthermore, if we see the Howard who has played most of the series, does Babcock take the chance and go to Osgood with the chance that Osgood could still flip the switch and carry the Wings? Or does Babcock ride the horse off the cliff and hope there's a bridge?

That's a really tough choice to be honest. I'm glad I don't have to make it.

[Guest Howard He Do It?!]

I live in California now and don't have the luxury of going to the games like I used to years ago. The crowd at the Joe is pathetic. It's like a morgue in that place. It's like people forget that the players feed off the energy of the crowd. Spoiled I guess. Used to winning all the time. They cheer when the Wings score and if we make a big hit now and then. But for the most part it's pretty quiet. Watch the crowd at The Staples Center tonight. And for that matter, watch the crowd in Phoenix next game. I, partly, blame the fans at the Joe.

Did you watch the game? There was a reason it was so quite. The Joe was loud at the start of the game and when it was a close game. Once it got out of hand though the crowd lost interest. Honestly, you think the crowd is going to be pumped and loud when their team is losing by 4 goals? The crowd feeds of off the team's play.

The Staples Center was pretty quite when the Kings gave up goals.

[motorcitykid 42]

Crap result. The boys really wanna do this the difficult way, I guess. They know they blew it today, but PHX did what they needed to, and couldn't afford a loss. Somewhere in the back of the Wings minds they figured they had 2 opportunities to win this. Well I'll take the Wings over a team with no clue how to handle the pressure they are going to feel Tuesday in front if a home crowd with big pressure. All of what PHX has been through this year, they've already won. Wings have been there, done that. Game 7 will be no different.

And in the most polite way possible, to all those screaming to start Ozzie, STFU!!!!! Geez, I'm tired of this Maple Leaf mentality around here. We win 1 game, everyone bends over backwards praising Howie. Lose one, and you abandon him???!!!!! They WILL bounce back, guys!! And Shark is next up on the menu!!!!

Go Wings!!!

[Nightfall 871]

There should be no doubt in the eyes of Wings fans when it comes to who should start in net for the Wings. Howard is the clear cut starter. As anyone who is a true hockey fan knows, the team has to show up in front of him. Otherwise, it will be just like when Luongo played for Florida. Sure, Luongo was good, but unless the team helps you out, there is no way you are going to win games. The team in front of the goalie has to come out with intensity and work hard.

I cannot say that Detroit has deserved to win in the games that they lost. Game 1 they played lazy. Game 2 they played reckless but came out on top because Phoenix did the same thing. Game 3 they played lazy. Game 4 they were dominant and clicking on all cylinders. Game 5 they played well, but didn't pick up the intensity until the last period of the game. Game 6 they were lazy again.

Inconsistent hockey will not win you championships. Inconsistent efforts will get you eliminated quickly.

The Wings are fortunate to be in this position. I have faith they will win on Tuesday. If not, well, just like I said last year when the cup final went 7 games.....if they lose they will have no one to blame but themselves.

[Guest EZBAKETHAGANGSTA]

There should be no doubt in the eyes of Wings fans when it comes to who should start in net for the Wings. Howard is the clear cut starter. As anyone who is a true hockey fan knows, the team has to show up in front of him. Otherwise, it will be just like when Luongo played for Florida. Sure, Luongo was good, but unless the team helps you out, there is no way you are going to win games. The team in front of the goalie has to come out with intensity and work hard.

I cannot say that Detroit has deserved to win in the games that they lost. Game 1 they played lazy. Game 2 they played reckless but came out on top because Phoenix did the same thing. Game 3 they played lazy. Game 4 they were dominant and clicking on all cylinders. Game 5 they played well, but didn't pick up the intensity until the last period of the game. Game 6 they were lazy again.

Inconsistent hockey will not win you championships. Inconsistent efforts will get you eliminated quickly.

The Wings are fortunate to be in this position. I have faith they will win on Tuesday. If not, well, just like I said last year when the cup final went 7 games.....if they lose they will have no one to blame but themselves.

Agreed. Howard hasen't been lights out this series, but he has been good enough, and in my mind cannot be blamed should we lose in game 7 (barring a catostrophic meltdown). Yes his stats last game were horrid, but goals 2-4 really were not weak goals by any means. If I was Babcock though, as soon as the deflected one went in and the game became 3-1, I would have called a time out, as you can see he was rattled.

[haroldsnepsts 4,826]

I know I shouldn't be surprised, yet I am that there a people discussing yanking Howard.

It was definitely not one of his stronger games, but he was hardly the major reason the Wings lost, which is what the case would have to be for Osgood to start.

As I said before, more than anything he was the only one defending his net. He makes the first save, then there's two Coyotes players there to whack at any rebound. Now watch the highlights at the other end. Typically there's at least two if not three Phoenix players by Bryzgalov to clear the crease and any rebounds.

He let in an Ozzy-like five hole goal on the shorty, but otherwise played pretty well. The Yotes had a couple seeing-eye goals and were screening him well.

In short, ya gotta dance with the one who brung you. Jimmy will start, play big in net, and the Wings win.

[HOCKEY MATTERS 167]

The Wings took all of Bobby Lang's lazy and suck away form him in game 6. They better give all of it back to him and play some hockey.

[Guest mindfly]

I know I shouldn't be surprised, yet I am that there a people discussing yanking Howard.

It was definitely not one of his stronger games, but he was hardly the major reason the Wings lost, which is what the case would have to be for Osgood to start.

As I said before, more than anything he was the only one defending his net. He makes the first save, then there's two Coyotes players there to whack at any rebound. Now watch the highlights at the other end. Typically there's at least two if not three Phoenix players by Bryzgalov to clear the crease and any rebounds.

He let in an Ozzy-like five hole goal on the shorty, but otherwise played pretty well. The Yotes had a couple seeing-eye goals and were screening him well.

In short, ya gotta dance with the one who brung you. Jimmy will start, play big in net, and the Wings win.

Why are you saying howard will play big and wings will win, they were supposed to win game 6, too... they didn't... there's too much "We'll be fine"-thinking on these boards DAMMIT.

Wake the f*ck up, wings play like s*** and being too inconsistent to qualify...

Edited April 26, 2010 by mindfly

[Guest EZBAKETHAGANGSTA]

Why are you saying howard will play big and wings will win, they were supposed to win game 6, too... they didn't... there's too much "We'll be fine"-thinking on these boards DAMMIT.

Wake the f*ck up, wings play like s*** and being too inconsistent to qualify...

You act as if our emotions or feelings have anything to do with how the Red Wing's play. Somehow I doubt this to be true. There is nothign wrong in prefering a more favorable outcome.

[Guest mindfly]

You act as if our emotions or feelings have anything to do with how the Red Wing's play. Somehow I doubt this to be true. There is nothign wrong in prefering a more favorable outcome.

Then say "I hope they will be fine" "I think there's a chance howard can play big in the net" you just sound like a retard stating "they WILL win no problem."

[Guest EZBAKETHAGANGSTA]

Then say "I hope they will be fine" "I think there's a chance howard can play big in the net" you just sound like a retard stating "they WILL win no problem."

Thinking they will win and being optimistic is different than blind optimism and claming we will repeat 2002 vs the Avs. Maybe it's just a difference of opinion and sports culture, but I really can't see why you must always be such a negative guy a lot of the time, I understand it kinda saves you from more dissapointment, but in the end the Team will perform how they perform, you cannot control it. What you can control however, is your feelings on it, and I just really cant see why someone would almost always be so universially negative/pessimistic.

[Guest mindfly]

Thinking they will win and being optimistic is different than blind optimism and claming we will repeat 2002 vs the Avs. Maybe it's just a difference of opinion and sports culture, but I really can't see why you must always be such a negative guy a lot of the time, I understand it kinda saves you from more dissapointment, but in the end the Team will perform how they perform, you cannot control it. What you can control however, is your feelings on it, and I just really cant see why someone would almost always be so universially negative/pessimistic.

I see myself as realistic most of the times, it not realistic to say "Wings will win, i'm not worried" based on how they played in this series, phoenix have a better chance of qualifying for the next round weather you like the thought or not. (Game 7 at home with the crowd, last change, logistics etc speaks for phoenix)

Edited April 26, 2010 by mindfly

[FedorovGurl 2]

Seriously, have the Wings won an afternoon game EVER? I can't remember ever winning one.

[Guest mindfly]

Seriously, have the Wings won an afternoon game EVER? I can't remember ever winning one.

5-4 win at United center maybe 2months ago? although they were really close to let chicago tie that one (and yeah, lose in OT/SO)

[Z and D for the C 712]

Game 4 was the shutout. I removed Howard's best game statistically, to show how the rest of the series has been rather tragic.

What happens if we just idiotically remove his worst game?

Howard's numbers if you take out Game 6:

Saves/Shots, Sv%: 147/159, .926%

GA, Mins, GAA: 12, 297:02, 2.42

SAPG: 32

That's good enough for 5th in Sv% and 7th in GAA! For a rookie, what a champ!

Putting Osgood in for game 7 could be the most stupid decision Babcock has ever made.

Edited April 26, 2010 by Z and D for the C