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Kovalchuk will not be a Red Wing


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#161 Heaten

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Posted 15 May 2010 - 02:16 PM

Yes, having depth makes any team dangerous, if your able to role 4 lines thats great. We may have to get rid of bertuzzi if he doesnt play with pavs or z, at this point in his career he has to feed off other star players. Also i dont think abdelkader jumped helm for the 3rd line, abs trys to provide more energy so he should still be in 4th until he proves other wise.

Right now im already smiling at our top 6, deadly. We have 0 problems scoring in those top two lines, this years, and the years before. We havn't had many problems with our bottom two until this year. But this year we can get a good full season with abs, and who knows who else we will pick up.


I look at it more like a 3rd-A line and a 3rd-B line. Remember, Abby did center the 2nd line when DRWs had all the injuries back in December. Helm stayed on the 3rd line. With aforementioned roster players, Babcock can make a scoring 3rd line (would be a 2nd line on any other team) with Hudler-Filppula-Eaves/Cleary.

That's why it's imperative to have depth, Babcock has so many more options and scoring threats he can put up against opposition team's bottom defense pairings.

#162 Buppy

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Posted 15 May 2010 - 03:06 PM

I agree. Giving up three key players and one role player for one star is absurd. Can't do this in the cap world if you Red Wings want to be a Stanley Cup contender.
Fillppula, Hudler, Bertuzzi, Helm/Abdelkader/Holmstrom > Kovalchuk

Off the top of my head:
Hudler-Datsyuk-Holmer
Filppula-Zetterberg-Franzen
Bertuzzi-Abdelkader-Cleary
Eaves-Helm-Draper
Miller
Ritola
-(3rd line looks strong!, energy, and can score)
-(4th line is fast as HELL!)
-(DRWs PK will be top 5 in the league with those guys)

Lidstrom-Rafalski
Stuart-Kronwall
Lilja- Ericsson
Kindl
-(Kindl and Ericsson can rotate games)

Depth is great, isn't it!


I don't know if you just can't read or if you're being deliberately dense. I'm not "Giving up three key players and one role player for one star ". It's three players for three players. Flip, Happy, Bert for Kovy, Miller, UFA. A little third line scoring for improvement on the top line. Some general depth for some depth in a key area.

Your top 6 is ok (though I don't like the line combos), but not nearly as good as mine. The 4th line is the same as I would have. That third line isn't any better than mine. Bert is completely out of place there. Maybe swap him for Torres and it's better than mine, but not by a lot, and you might have to lose your 14th forward.

So, for the UFA in my roster, I'd be looking for someone like Winchester or Pyatt. Big, ok speed, can play physical, works hard, not a liability on defense, can chip in 10-15 goals.

That gives me a bottom 6 of:
Winchester - Abdelkader - Miller
Draper - Helm - Eaves
Ritola

They bring speed, hard work, solid defense and penalty killing, physical play, and probably 60-70 goals.

Your bottom 6:
Bertuzzi-Abdelkader-Cleary
Eaves-Helm-Draper
Miller
Ritola

Pretty much the same thing but maybe 70-80 goals.

Your bottom 6 with Torres replacing Bert and Miller:
Torres-Abdelkader-Cleary
Eaves-Helm-Draper
Ritola

Pretty much the same thing goal-wise, but faster and more physical than your suggestion.

In exchange for those 0-20 goals I give you a vastly improved top 6, that is BETTER equipped to sustain an injury to a key forward. Yeah, I'd jump at that chance.

You have to accept that Bert or Cleary would not be 20 goal scorers buried on the third line. Flip will not break out on the third line. Hudler will not be a star on the third line. Two years ago we iced a third line of Hudler-Filppula-Sammy. On paper it looks a lot better than what either of us is talking about now, but they still combined for only 40 ES goals. 40. With a stacked top 6 in front of them. Happy and Sammy got a lot of points playing on the PP, but ES they were nothing special. 40 goals. Draper-Helm-Eaves this year combined for 30.

Your 'depth' looks great on paper, but in practice it just doesn't work that way. You want valuable contributions from a 3rd and 4th line. Mine give you that. They take the PK burden off the top 6. They cause problems with their speed and physicality. Maybe we could even start using Helm and Eaves/Miller/Abdelkader as shut down players against opposing scoring lines the way we used to use Maltby and Draper. And they can still contribute secondary scoring.

Once again, you don't argue against what I'm actually suggesting. I'll try to simplify it for you. I doubt you'll get it, but whatever.

Filppula + Hudler + Bertuzzi FOR Kovalchuk + Miller + Winchester. Everything else is the same. No other changes. No loss of Helm/Abby/Eaves/Homer. Just those 6 players. 3 on your side, 3 on mine. Or since you went with 14 forwards this time, go ahead and take Miller off my side. Flip-Happy-Bert for Kovy-Winchester. Hell, call it Flip+Happy for Kovy if you want.

Kovalchuk > Filppula + Hudler. That's the crux of my position. Argue against that.

#163 deetroit dario

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Posted 15 May 2010 - 04:07 PM

if by your own admission, its not going to happen anyway...why argue at all?

the vs. announcers would call this "equine overkill" (translation...beating a dead horse!).

this argument needs its head cut off and dropped at the foot of jack woltz's bed!!
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#164 Heaten

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Posted 15 May 2010 - 04:12 PM

I don't know if you just can't read or if you're being deliberately dense. I'm not "Giving up three key players and one role player for one star ". It's three players for three players. Flip, Happy, Bert for Kovy, Miller, UFA. A little third line scoring for improvement on the top line. Some general depth for some depth in a key area.

Your top 6 is ok (though I don't like the line combos), but not nearly as good as mine. The 4th line is the same as I would have. That third line isn't any better than mine. Bert is completely out of place there. Maybe swap him for Torres and it's better than mine, but not by a lot, and you might have to lose your 14th forward.

So, for the UFA in my roster, I'd be looking for someone like Winchester or Pyatt. Big, ok speed, can play physical, works hard, not a liability on defense, can chip in 10-15 goals.

That gives me a bottom 6 of:
Winchester - Abdelkader - Miller
Draper - Helm - Eaves
Ritola

They bring speed, hard work, solid defense and penalty killing, physical play, and probably 60-70 goals.

Your bottom 6:
Bertuzzi-Abdelkader-Cleary
Eaves-Helm-Draper
Miller
Ritola

Pretty much the same thing but maybe 70-80 goals.

Your bottom 6 with Torres replacing Bert and Miller:
Torres-Abdelkader-Cleary
Eaves-Helm-Draper
Ritola

Pretty much the same thing goal-wise, but faster and more physical than your suggestion.

In exchange for those 0-20 goals I give you a vastly improved top 6, that is BETTER equipped to sustain an injury to a key forward. Yeah, I'd jump at that chance.

You have to accept that Bert or Cleary would not be 20 goal scorers buried on the third line. Flip will not break out on the third line. Hudler will not be a star on the third line. Two years ago we iced a third line of Hudler-Filppula-Sammy. On paper it looks a lot better than what either of us is talking about now, but they still combined for only 40 ES goals. 40. With a stacked top 6 in front of them. Happy and Sammy got a lot of points playing on the PP, but ES they were nothing special. 40 goals. Draper-Helm-Eaves this year combined for 30.

Your 'depth' looks great on paper, but in practice it just doesn't work that way. You want valuable contributions from a 3rd and 4th line. Mine give you that. They take the PK burden off the top 6. They cause problems with their speed and physicality. Maybe we could even start using Helm and Eaves/Miller/Abdelkader as shut down players against opposing scoring lines the way we used to use Maltby and Draper. And they can still contribute secondary scoring.

Once again, you don't argue against what I'm actually suggesting. I'll try to simplify it for you. I doubt you'll get it, but whatever.

Filppula + Hudler + Bertuzzi FOR Kovalchuk + Miller + Winchester. Everything else is the same. No other changes. No loss of Helm/Abby/Eaves/Homer. Just those 6 players. 3 on your side, 3 on mine. Or since you went with 14 forwards this time, go ahead and take Miller off my side. Flip-Happy-Bert for Kovy-Winchester. Hell, call it Flip+Happy for Kovy if you want.

Kovalchuk > Filppula + Hudler. That's the crux of my position. Argue against that.


You're calling me dense when you don't even understand how a salary cap works? Ugh!

You will need to give up much more than Filppula + Hudler for Kovalchuk. If you can't understand that, then nobody can help you. I think it's you who has the poor understanding and grasp of reality.

"It's three players for three players. Flip, Happy, Bert for Kovy, Miller, UFA. A little third line scoring for improvement on the top line. Some general depth for some depth in a key area." [...] Kovalchuk > Filppula + Hudler. That's the crux of my position. Argue against that.


Seriously?

First you need to give up Filppula, Hudler, Bertuzzi and Holmstrom/Helm/Abdelkader. How else are you going to pay Kovy, Miller and all the UFA replacements?

Edited by Heaten, 15 May 2010 - 04:21 PM.


#165 Buppy

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Posted 15 May 2010 - 04:13 PM

Buppy your out of your mind, you would give up huds and flip for kovalchuk, and a 3rd player? Dude on paper datsyuk and kovalchuk look amazing but if you don't have a deep team than forget him.

Giving up that many key players for 1 amazing player goes against what detroit has been doing the last two decades. There was many times where we could have dumped some role players to acquire a great one, but we dont do that because you need all 4 lines rolling.

An example is this year, our 4 lines weren't as solid as they have been in the past decade.

Another example is SAN JOSE, yes the sharks. They have always had two great top 6 lines but the bottom two were horrible. They go and bring in malholtra, heatly, and nichol without giving away anyone key. But for us we can not do that. We can't get kovy without giving away someone big.

If i could get kovy without losing much bring him in, but if not screw him.

Maybe we can try and bring in a gritty fourth liner and maybe get raffi torres, if not raffi resign bertuzzi since raffi does what bertuzzi does with more speed and grit, and his back isnt screwed up.

An example off the top of my head:
flipula-zetterberg-franzen
hudler-datsyuk-holmer
helm-flipula-miller(maybe replaced for a 4th line specialist, moving eaves to 3rd line)
abdelkader-draper-eaves
Ritola

Lidstrom-rafalski
Stuart-Kronwall
Ericson- Lilja



G-Howard
Backup-Osgood

Also it is a must to get osgood to play needs to play at least 30-35 games in the season so hes fresh and howards fresh, also this way osgood is ready for playoffs just incase.




The bolded= Thinnest lineup, we lose first round.


Your right. In the past we could get Shannahan for Primeau. Chelios for Eriksson. Hasek for Kozlov. Hull and Robitaille for nothing. But we can't now with the cap. We can't Kovy without giving something up.

We also can't get Hudler for Williams or Bert. We can't get Abdelkader for Miller or Eaves. We can't get Torres for nothing. Hell, we can't even get Helm for Helm. We can't just upgrade the secondary players anymore than we can upgrade top line players. Hudler coming back takes almost all the salary we were paying for Bert AND Williams. Abdelkader will likely take almost everything we were paying Miller AND Eaves (or more). Fortunately, with Lidstrom and Homer likely to free some cap space, we have some flexibility. You want to spread it around on small upgrades here and there. I'd rather lump it all together for one big upgrade. I take the freed space, use it for the various raises, then instead of taking Hudler back, I package him with Flip for a better player. Moreover, since Kovy is a FA, Flip and Happy can be traded for picks and prospects. Possibly find that future star on an ELC who can give us great depth again.

We can NOT recreate 02, with 3 fantastic scoring lines and the grind line at thier best. That's not possible in a cap world. You want a 3rd line that can score 60 goals? Either get some kids on ELCs to play like stars, or plan on having a second line that can only score 40.

I'm not sure what you think is 'thin' about my lineup, unless maybe you didn't count the FA signing I mention.

flipula-zetterberg-franzen = Cleary-Zetterberg-Franzen (I assume this Filppula was supposed to be Cleary)
hudler-datsyuk-holmer <<< Kovalchuk-Datsyuk-Holstrom
helm-flipula-miller(...eaves) > Winchester-Abdelkader/Helm-Miller/Eaves
abdelkader-draper-eaves(...possible '4th line specialist') = Draper-Helm/Abdelkader-Eaves/Miller
Ritola = Ritola

Slightly better 3rd, much worse 2nd.

Nor do I understand the logic that would have them losing in the first round. Our team this year, despite a nightmarish sequence of injuries, put up over 100 points, made the 2nd round, and were very competetive against perhaps the best team in the league. (And with a little more luck could still be playing)

These are the changes from this year to my proposal:
Filppula - Kovalchuk
Bertuzzi - Winchester/Pyatt or some other similar UFA signing
Williams - Abdelkader (full time)
Maltby + May - Ritola
Lebda + Meech - Kindl

The bottom 3 are likely to happen no matter what. (Though Meech might stick around if we don't keep Lilja. :( ) Are you trying to suggest now that Flip and Bert would be better than Kovy and Winchester?

Assuming the bottom 3 changes happen, the other changes without Kovy would be:
Add Hudler
Lose one of Bert, Miller, or Eaves
Maybe add a 3rd/4th line grit player
Lose another of Bert, Miller, or Eaves

How is any feasible option from the above any more of an upgrade than Kovy?

#166 Buppy

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Posted 15 May 2010 - 04:32 PM

You're calling me dense when you don't even understand how a salary cap works? Ugh!

You will need to give up much more than Filppula + Hudler for Kovalchuk. If you can't understand that, then nobody can help you. I think it's you who has the poor understanding and grasp of reality.

Seriously?

First you need to give up Filppula, Hudler, Bertuzzi and Holmstrom/Helm/Abdelkader. How else are you going to pay Kovy, Miller and all the UFA replacements?


FORWARDS
* Tomas Holmstrom ($1.500m) / Pavel Datsyuk ($6.700m) / * Ilya Kovalchuk ($6.000m)
Johan Franzen ($3.955m) / Henrik Zetterberg ($6.083m) / Daniel Cleary ($2.800m)
* Brad Winchester ($1.300m) / * Justin Abdelkader ($1.200m) / * Drew Miller ($0.900m)
Kris Draper ($1.583m) / * Darren Helm ($1.200m) / * Patrick Eaves ($0.900m)
* Mattias Ritola ($0.650m)

DEFENSEMEN
Brian Rafalski ($6.000m) / * Nicklas Lidstrom ($5.000m)
Brad Stuart ($3.750m) / Niklas Kronwall ($3.000m)
* Andreas Lilja ($1.250m) / Jonathan Ericsson ($0.900m)
Jakub Kindl ($0.883m)
GOALTENDERS
Chris Osgood ($1.417m) / Jimmy Howard ($0.717m)
CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS
ROSTER: 21; PAYROLL: $57.688m; CAP ROOM: $0.012m BONUSES: $0.000m

Every single salary in that list, and the modest cap raise, are reasonable expectations. Kovy would have to be a ~10 year deal, but it is not unrealistic. Whether or not Kovy would accept a reasonable deal like that is irrelevent. Obviously, if he wouldn't then you don't take him.

Edited by Buppy, 15 May 2010 - 04:32 PM.


#167 Buppy

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Posted 15 May 2010 - 04:38 PM

if by your own admission, its not going to happen anyway...why argue at all?

the vs. announcers would call this "equine overkill" (translation...beating a dead horse!).

this argument needs its head cut off and dropped at the foot of jack woltz's bed!!


What else is there to argue about?

#168 Heaten

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Posted 15 May 2010 - 04:42 PM

Kovalchuk > Filppula + Hudler. That's the crux of my position. Argue against that.


It's funny that you keep throwing around the idea Holland can afford Brad Winchester, who already makes $800,000, when Holland couldn't even afford $.500 UFA players to fill holes.

Here's how it would break down. Look at all the holes that need to be filled with $.500 UFA. How are you going to find that many "diamonds in the rough" aka Eaves type players?

Kovalchuk ($7)-Datsyuk ($6.7)-Holmstrom($1.8) = 15.5
Cleary(2.9)-Zetterberg($6.1)-Franzen($4) = $13
UFA($.500)-Abdelkader($1.2)-Draper($1.6) = $3.3
UFA(.500)-UFA($.500)-Miller($.775) = $1.8
Ritola ($.775)
-Total $34.3

Lidstrom($5)-Ralfi($6)
Kronwall($3)-Stuart($3.7)
Lilja($1)-Ericsson($.900)
Kindl($.900)
-Total $20.5

GOALIES = $2.2

Grand total = $57.1

Cap allowance $56.8

OVER CAP SPACE $300,000 after signing a bunch of $.500 scrubs

And you are talking about Holland signing Brad Winchester, who is only 28 years old, and already makes $800,000 per year? Not.Gonna.Happen if you have Kovalchuk on this team. Or maybe you'd like to tell Lidstrom "sorry pal, we're going a different way. Go sign someplace else"?!

Face it dude, your argument is not realistic in the cap world, whatsoever.

Edited by Heaten, 15 May 2010 - 04:45 PM.


#169 Heaten

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Posted 15 May 2010 - 04:54 PM

FORWARDS
* Tomas Holmstrom ($1.500m) / Pavel Datsyuk ($6.700m) / * Ilya Kovalchuk ($6.000m)
Johan Franzen ($3.955m) / Henrik Zetterberg ($6.083m) / Daniel Cleary ($2.800m)
* Brad Winchester ($1.300m) / * Justin Abdelkader ($1.200m) / * Drew Miller ($0.900m)
Kris Draper ($1.583m) / * Darren Helm ($1.200m) / * Patrick Eaves ($0.900m)
* Mattias Ritola ($0.650m)

DEFENSEMEN
Brian Rafalski ($6.000m) / * Nicklas Lidstrom ($5.000m)
Brad Stuart ($3.750m) / Niklas Kronwall ($3.000m)
* Andreas Lilja ($1.250m) / Jonathan Ericsson ($0.900m)
Jakub Kindl ($0.883m)
GOALTENDERS
Chris Osgood ($1.417m) / Jimmy Howard ($0.717m)
CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS
ROSTER: 21; PAYROLL: $57.688m; CAP ROOM: $0.012m BONUSES: $0.000m

Every single salary in that list, and the modest cap raise, are reasonable expectations. Kovy would have to be a ~10 year deal, but it is not unrealistic. Whether or not Kovy would accept a reasonable deal like that is irrelevent. Obviously, if he wouldn't then you don't take him.



Okay, now I see what you are doing. You have this unrealistic idea that everyone is going to sign and/or re-sign on the Detroit Red Wings for under market value, while stating the cap will go up to "$X" amount to favor your argument.

I don't play NHL '09 or whatever that game is called.

We both agree on one thing, Holland won't be signing Kovalchuk. And I doubt Holland plays NHL '09 either. btw, the roster you posted looks very, very weak at best. How well does it do in NHL '09?

#170 Drake_Marcus

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Posted 15 May 2010 - 05:02 PM

Kovalchuk`s agent must be praying the NHLPA triggers the inflator. If every team suddenly gets $5,000,000 in bonus bux you can bet Kovy will get a retarded contract.
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#171 Buppy

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Posted 15 May 2010 - 05:20 PM

Okay, now I see what you are doing. You have this unrealistic idea that everyone is going to sign and/or re-sign on the Detroit Red Wings for under market value, while stating the cap will go up to "$X" amount to favor your argument.

I don't play NHL '09 or whatever that game is called.

We both agree on one thing, Holland won't be signing Kovalchuk. And I doubt Holland plays NHL '09 either. btw, the roster you posted looks very, very weak at best. How well does it do in NHL '09?


Reports indicate that cap is expected to go up. There have also been rumors of 'close to $58 million' and 'go up about a million'. It seems fairly likely at this point.

$6 mil is fair for Kovy. Citing: Hossa ($5.1), Zetterberg ($6.1), Sedins ($6.1). It is a fair and reasonble price for a 10 year deal.

It is reasonable to expect life-time Wings Homer and Lidstrom, both aging, to re-sign for a good value.

$1.2 mil is a fair price for Helm and Abdelkader. I think it's actually a little high even. Either way, it's the number you picked, so I don't think you can reneg on it now.

$900k is a fair price for Eaves and Miller. (You even gave Miller less. But you also gave Cleary $100k more than his contract, so...) It's substantially more than they got this year. There's also likely to be a couple dozen players just as good who'd be willing to play for that, or less. We got Eaves and Miller cheap this year. Malhotra got $700k in SJ. Prospal signed for a million. Afinogenov got $800k. Pyatt got $600k. Betts will get $700k, up from $550k. I'm sure there's plenty more like that.

Ritola has done nothing yet, not even been exceptional in GR. $650 is plenty fair for him. Lilly has done nothing that really deserves a raise. $1.25 is plenty for an aging 3rd pair shot blocker.

Winchester hasn't had any great career. $1.3 is an over-payment if anything. The Blues seem to like him now, so maybe they give him more. So what. As I said about Eaves and Miller, there are plenty of other fish that would take it, and be just as good.

And how in the hell do you think that roster is weak? What part of it is even remotely weak?

Edited by Buppy, 15 May 2010 - 05:34 PM.


#172 Zetts

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Posted 15 May 2010 - 05:30 PM

In response to Buppy's Kovalchuk defense:

It's possible, but I don't really want it.

Yes, I'd rather have Hudler and Filppula. Not because I feel that they're better now, but because your scenario calls for yet another long term contract. I don't want however many million tied up in an old Zetterberg, Franzen and Kovalchuk in 10 years. They might be great now, but they will drop off by the end of those contracts. Probably quite a bit, like 99% of players do. And if that happens, we're screwed.

Edited by Zetts, 15 May 2010 - 05:30 PM.


#173 Heaten

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Posted 15 May 2010 - 05:47 PM

Look, Kovalchuk hurts the Red Wings by costing the team 12 goals per season and key depth.

Lets look at the goals they'll likely produce and compare to what DRWs lose:
Kovalchuk (45 goals) - On Dats line. Give him 45 goals, though he only scored 41 last season

Miller (10 goals) - Same as last season / probably a no show in the playoffs again against other teams with better depth

Winchester (3 goals) - He has no offensive skills in the NHL

Datsuyk (10 goals) - Doubt Pavel will score 10 more goals having Kovalchuk on his wing, but I'll give you the benefit of the doubt. Who's to say they even have any chemistry together? It's a risk

-Total 68 goals


PLAYERS GONE TO PAY KOVALCHUK:
Filppula (22 goals) - Filppula will likely score more than 20 goals. He's ready for a breakout and will getting 2nd line minutes next to Zetterberg. Filppula scored 19 goals in 2007/08 in 73 games

Hudler (28 goals) - If he get's top line minutes with Datsyuk, he will be an offensive threat!

Bertuzzi (20 goals) Scored 18 goals last season. This season he is settled in and already found chemestry with Zetterberg.

Holmstrom (count as 10 goals) - Scored 25 goals last year. Should get 20+ again this year. Holmstrom is the wild card. Maybe Abdelkader or Helm get the boot instead? Either way, one will be the odd man out to afford Kovalchuk -- I'll cound the loss as 10 goals

-Total goals lost = 80

Wings lose 12 goals per season, and, most importantly, lose important key depth (needed to go deep in the playoffs) and one of the best 2-way forwards on the team. All for adding one pricy player who will have a long-term contract until the year of 2023; Kovalchuck will have a $7 million cap hit til the age of 40.

Edited by Heaten, 15 May 2010 - 05:49 PM.


#174 Buppy

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Posted 15 May 2010 - 07:18 PM

In response to Buppy's Kovalchuk defense:

It's possible, but I don't really want it.

Yes, I'd rather have Hudler and Filppula. Not because I feel that they're better now, but because your scenario calls for yet another long term contract. I don't want however many million tied up in an old Zetterberg, Franzen and Kovalchuk in 10 years. They might be great now, but they will drop off by the end of those contracts. Probably quite a bit, like 99% of players do. And if that happens, we're screwed.


Understandable. Personally, I'd do it. A lot can happen in ~6 years. Maybe $16m isn't a lot for aging stars by then. Maybe the new CBA will give us some options. Maybe trade one in a few years, while you still could.

But yeah, I perfectly understand not wanting another long term deal.

Look, Kovalchuk hurts the Red Wings by costing the team 12 goals per season and key depth.

Lets look at the goals they'll likely produce and compare to what DRWs lose:
Kovalchuk (45 goals) - On Dats line. Give him 45 goals, though he only scored 41 last season

Miller (10 goals) - Same as last season / probably a no show in the playoffs again against other teams with better depth

Winchester (3 goals) - He has no offensive skills in the NHL

Datsuyk (10 goals) - Doubt Pavel will score 10 more goals having Kovalchuk on his wing, but I'll give you the benefit of the doubt. Who's to say they even have any chemistry together? It's a risk

-Total 68 goals


PLAYERS GONE TO PAY KOVALCHUK:
Filppula (22 goals) - Filppula will likely score more than 20 goals. He's ready for a breakout and will getting 2nd line minutes next to Zetterberg. Filppula scored 19 goals in 2007/08 in 73 games

Hudler (28 goals) - If he get's top line minutes with Datsyuk, he will be an offensive threat!

Bertuzzi (20 goals) Scored 18 goals last season. This season he is settled in and already found chemestry with Zetterberg.

Holmstrom (count as 10 goals) - Scored 25 goals last year. Should get 20+ again this year. Holmstrom is the wild card. Maybe Abdelkader or Helm get the boot instead? Either way, one will be the odd man out to afford Kovalchuk -- I'll cound the loss as 10 goals

-Total goals lost = 80

Wings lose 12 goals per season, and, most importantly, lose important key depth (needed to go deep in the playoffs) and one of the best 2-way forwards on the team. All for adding one pricy player who will have a long-term contract until the year of 2023; Kovalchuck will have a $7 million cap hit til the age of 40.


10 years @ $6 mil. I wouldn't go over that for him. So I don't lose Holmstrom or any other extra player you have to use to try to make an argument. But hell, since you completely refuse to argue against what I'm actually suggesting, why don't you just argue against a 44 year deal @ $12.6 million. You could really win that one.

Let me try to make it perfectly clear.

I WOULD NOT GIVE MORE THAN ~$6 MILLION TO KOVY. IF HE WON'T TAKE $6, THEN I DON'T DO THE DEAL. I DON'T LOSE EXTRA PLAYERS. I DO THE DEAL I SUGGEST OR I DON'T DO ANY DEAL. I OFFER MY DEAL. MY DEAL = BETTER. YOUR DEAL = WORSE. I DO NOT DO YOUR DEAL. MY DEAL OR NO DEAL.

Understand that? Say "that's what you'd have to do" all you want. I wouldn't do it. IF (and you don't really know) I had to do that, I would say no. $7 mil doesn't work. $7 mil is too much. I won't pay $7 mil. I don't care if I would 'have' to. In that case I wouldn't get Kovy. $6 mil or I don't do it. If Kovy has to cost $7 mil, my roster would be exactly the same as yours, because I wouldn't sign him.

Now please, for the love of God, stop arguing with something I'm not suggesting.

So the top 6 is:
Kovalchuk = 41 (averaged over 45 the last 6 years, but this should be good) VS
Hudler = 28 (optimistic, I'd say...who knows if he can stick on a top line, or if Babs will even give him a real chance)

Cleary = 20 (playing alongside Hank and Mule, he's actually done it before) VS
Filppula = 20 (yeah, we'll see, career high for him)

+13

Datsyuk (and I don't even need to add anything to him), Zetterberg, Franzen, and Homlstrom make up the remaining top 6 in both cases. I'm not quite sure how you still managed to get Bert in your top 6.

3rd line now:

You: Bertuzzi-Abdelkader-Cleary
I'll give you 14-12-15 = 41 (better than Happy-Flip-Sammy were able to do, even with a much better top 6 in front of them)

VS

Me: Winchester-Abdelkader-Miller
I'll call it 8-10-10 = 28 (a bit conservative I think, don't think Cleary and Bert would really make Abby better, but whatever)

Total: Even

Goals come out pretty even depending on how you want to slant the projections. I could easily add 10-15 goals difference either way. That's the fun thing about projections, you can say whatever you want.

As for depth:

Bert and Cleary aren't going to be any harder to play against, nor generate significantly more offense than my third line. Maybe 1 goal in a 7 game series (and that offset by my superior top 6). So the depth they give really comes down to having a few more options in terms of switching around line combos, and some insurance against someone like Homer, Flip, or Hudler getting injured. That is indeed valuable.

Kovy however, reduces the need to protect against injury to Homer and Cleary. We're not as reliant on those 2nd tier players. He also gives us another legit superstar that protects us some against a key injury to Hank, Pav, or Franzen. Something your lineup can't offer. We are also harder to matchup against in the top 6. You have to admit that is also valuable.

Persoanlly, I think I was pretty conservative. I think my lineup would net 20-30 more goals, and be much harder to shut down in the playoffs. But that's all just guesswork.

I'm also not factoring in the return for Filppula and Hudler. I'd be looking for a good prospect with a year or two of exemption left. Someone who could step in down the road and contribute well at a bargain price. Someone who could potentially come in for the playoffs and contribute right away. I know that'd be hoping for a lot, so I'm not really considering that. But the possibility is there.

#175 Heaten

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Posted 15 May 2010 - 08:45 PM

But that's all just guesswork.


Pretty much sums up your entire argument.

I think one of my first points (which you stated was "irrelevant") was *if* Holland seriously wanted to hand out another long-term contract, he'd done so by re-signing Hossa for 12-years @ $5.3 million cap hit.

The entire debate is pretty much irrelevant since we both agree Holland isn't going to sign Kovalchuk, nor is willing to offer anyone a long-term deal.

#176 Buppy

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Posted 15 May 2010 - 09:07 PM

Pretty much sums up your entire argument.

I think one of my first points (which you stated was "irrelevant") was *if* Holland seriously wanted to hand out another long-term contract, he'd done so by re-signing Hossa for 12-years @ $5.3 million cap hit.

The entire debate is pretty much irrelevant since we both agree Holland isn't going to sign Kovalchuk, nor is willing to offer anyone a long-term deal.


The debate is whether Kovalchuk would make the team worse or not. You say he would, I say he wouldn't. What Holland is willing to do is not relevant to that debate.

The debate itself is irrevelant. Everything ever said on this board is in that context. Nothing said here effects anything in the real world. In fact, even if Holland WAS planning to go after Kovy, this debate would still be irrelevant. Kenny isn't looking for our advice.

This is just a discussion board. We discuss things we find entertaining. I post my opinions about certain topics. I read others opinions. Not because it matters at all, but because I enjoy doing so. I enjoy debating my reasoning.

But I'm not going to let an argument that basically amounts to "something you never said isn't true because something that doesn't pertain to it is" go unanswered.

#177 Hockeytown_Ryan

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Posted 15 May 2010 - 09:32 PM

I know this guy has credit and Merit.. But I question his remarks a little here....

From Spector....

UFAs Jason Williams, Andreas Lilja, Brett Lebda, and Kirk Maltby aren't expected to be re-signed. Maltby reportedly could retire and perhaps accept a off-ice position with the Wings.Notable restricted free agents include Justin Abdelkader, Darren Helm, Patrick Eaves, Drew Miller and Derek Meech. It's believed most, if not all, will be re-signed.


blog on Fox Sports...HERE

Why would he suggest that Meech would be re-signed and Lilja not? Am I the only one who sees this as weird?

I know he says "It's Believed" But I would like to think that Lilja is more a value to the team then Meech. Just my opinion...

#178 Buppy

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Posted 15 May 2010 - 10:18 PM

I know this guy has credit and Merit.. But I question his remarks a little here....

From Spector....



blog on Fox Sports...HERE

Why would he suggest that Meech would be re-signed and Lilja not? Am I the only one who sees this as weird?

I know he says "It's Believed" But I would like to think that Lilja is more a value to the team then Meech. Just my opinion...


I read that, and seen similar such reports elsewhere. I don't understand anymore than you do. I guess they're expecting Kindl to be the 6th. Honestly worries me a little. Hopefully there's no truth to it, unless they're planning on letting Lilly go to make room for an upgrade, and letting Meech and Kindl fight over the 7th spot.

#179 Heaten

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Posted 15 May 2010 - 10:40 PM

The debate is whether Kovalchuk would make the team worse or not. You say he would, I say he wouldn't. What Holland is willing to do is not relevant to that debate.


Lol. So we can make this thread go another 9 pages with "If Kovakchuk signed for $6 million", "If Kovalchuk singed for $7 milllion", "If Hudler scores 28 goals with 1st line ice time", "If Hudler doesn't stick on the first line", "Filppula won't score 20 goals with a season on the 2nd line centered by Zetterberg", and etc.

There is no debate other than Holland would have to sign 4th liners (for league minimum) to plug the 3rd line, to afford Kovalchuk at $6 or $7 million. However, without Kovalchuk (and his salary), Babcock can assemble a potent 3rd line to roll.

Should we argue 1 good line Vs. 3 solid lines? Because with Kovalchuk, that's what we'll have... a bunch of 4th liners plugging in the 3rd line due to blowing the wad on one player.

#180 Buppy

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Posted 15 May 2010 - 11:59 PM

Lol. So we can make this thread go another 9 pages with "If Kovakchuk signed for $6 million", "If Kovalchuk singed for $7 milllion", "If Hudler scores 28 goals with 1st line ice time", "If Hudler doesn't stick on the first line", "Filppula won't score 20 goals with a season on the 2nd line centered by Zetterberg", and etc.

There is no debate other than Holland would have to sign 4th liners (for league minimum) to plug the 3rd line, to afford Kovalchuk at $6 or $7 million. However, without Kovalchuk (and his salary), Babcock can assemble a potent 3rd line to roll.

Should we argue 1 good line Vs. 3 solid lines? Because with Kovalchuk, that's what we'll have... a bunch of 4th liners plugging in the 3rd line due to blowing the wad on one player.


Damn, we were getting pretty close I thought. You brought up the goals gained and lost and I had hope we could get a real debate going. Now you're backsliding.

Let me offer you some advice on proper debate.

I start with a premise. I provide evidence. I draw a conclusion.

You, to argue against that, either: Invalidate my premise or dispute my conclusion. You back it up with your evidence.

My assertion is that Kovalchuk would make us a better team. I suggest the roster of players I listed would sign for the amounts I listed. That is my premise. I support that by citing various examples of similar players on similar deals. I then propose that said roster is superior to your suggested roster. I support that with my logic (since we're talking about the future, we obviously don't have any actual evidence). I conclude that my suggestion is superior.

Now if you want to argue with that you either:
A:) Invalidate my premise. You say that the players wouldn't sign for those amounts, but don't offer anything to support your argument. Your opinion that they wouldn't is not evidence. Why do you not think the players would sign for those values?

OR

B:) Dispute my conclusion: Argue that my roster is inferior to yours. You came close to trying this, but you've never actually argued against what I suggested. Therefore the logic you use is invalid. You've offered nothing to contradict my conlcusion.

You are trying to do both of the above at the same time. You're saying (without anything to support your assertion) that my roster isn't viable, proposing your own alternate roster, and using that as the foundation of your argument. You're essentially arguing against yourself.

So let's try simplifying once again. Multi-tiered arguments appear to be too difficult for you. Forget the whole better or worse part of the debate for a minute. Maybe we can get to that part later.

Let's look at just the salaries. I posted my suggested roster with my suggested salaries. I offered my supporting evidence for why I believe the salaries are reasonable, why I believe the players would sign for those amounts.

Now you counter that. Pick one or more deal in my list that you don't think the player would accept. Then tell me why. You say Kovalchuk wouldn't take $6 million. Ok, so... why not?

Edited by Buppy, 16 May 2010 - 12:01 AM.






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