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2010 NHL Draft Thread


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#581 jollymania

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Posted 26 June 2010 - 10:54 PM

I wonder what undrafted guys Kenny's gonna pick up as well.
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#582 Buppy

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Posted 27 June 2010 - 03:41 AM

As a fan of the Detroit Red Wings you should know better... unless of course you forgot that Zetterberg and Ericsson were drafted after the 201st.


Point is, expecting anything out of the 7th round is a bit silly.

But this did prompt me to do a little research on our draft success.

I don't have, and I'm not going to compile, actual figures for average draft success rates, but I did some cursory investigation to get some estimates. As a general rule, I call a player a success if they play 200 or more games in the NHL. 100 for goalies. More recent draft classes get some leeway there. I'm looking at drafts from 1989 - 2005.

1st round picks succeed about 65%, 2nd round about 30%, 3rd about 20%, 4th, 5th, and 6th all get about 12%, 7th or later about 8%. Overall success rate is about 19.5%.

Looking at the Wings picks over those years, and arranging them according to current rounds (picks in the 1-30 range are 1st rounders, 31-60 2nd, etc.) we get the results:

1st: 6/11 - 54.5% (A bit low, but 7 of those picks were 22nd or later, so not that bad. Plus Kindl might make it.)
2nd: 10/17 - 58.8% (Nearly double the average. I'm giving Abdelkader the benefit of the doubt here.)
3rd: 4/13 - 30.8% (Assuming Howard makes it. Again, well above average.)
4/5/6: 7/61 - 11.5% (Little below average here, counting Helm and Quincey. Ritola could change that if he makes it.)
7th+: 6/69 - 8.7% (Slightly above average. And that's giving credit for Meech and Ericsson.)
Overall: 33/171 - 19.3% (Practically average despite having fewer high round picks, especially 1st rounders.)

So for all the talk about our late round prowess, it's really the 2nd and 3rd rounds that have been our most successful. Perhaps worth noting that many of the successful late round players are either goalies, enforcers, or stay at home defensemen, A lot of role players, many only barely making the cut, but there've been quite a few solid skill players as well. We have the following drafted 91st or later: Filppula, Franzen, Dallas Drake, Jason York, Datsyuk, Zetterberg, Konstantinov, Dan McGillis, and Holmstrom. Quincey, Meech, Helm, and Ericsson I counted as successes. Ritola I didn't, but he has a fair chance.

We definitely draft well, but we're not King Midas.

#583 EZBAKETHAGANGSTA

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Posted 27 June 2010 - 03:55 AM

We definitely draft well, but we're not King Midas.


No one is saying that, but you pointed out yourself how many gems we've found. That 8.7% may be only a little better than the average, but it doesn't account for the quality of the games played, just quantity. My point was never to say any 7th rounder will be a superstar, simply you shouldn't be so quick to dismiss the possibility.
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#584 Buppy

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Posted 27 June 2010 - 05:03 AM

No one is saying that, but you pointed out yourself how many gems we've found. That 8.7% may be only a little better than the average, but it doesn't account for the quality of the games played, just quantity. My point was never to say any 7th rounder will be a superstar, simply you shouldn't be so quick to dismiss the possibility.


My original response was to someone questioning our 7th round pick, as if we should have targetted someone different. As if we had any likely shot of filling some need or there were other players out there with a better chance of succeeding in the NHL. I was pointing out with a little pithy exaggeration that it was a 7th round pick, and there is only a small chance that said player will ever get a sniff of the NHL.

My follow-up analysis confirms that. Moreover, it goes a ways towards debunking the myth that our late round picks have any abnormal tendency toward success. The quality of our late successes may or may not be better than average. I don't feel like doing that much research. But it's still only about a 1 in 10 chance for a 4th round or later pick to really make the NHL. Pretty much right on league average.

#585 Guest_screwdahawks (Guest)

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Posted 27 June 2010 - 06:58 AM

rafalski went undrafted. this guy is that much better..




mnhockeyprospects.com Wants the puck in all situations and always thinking offense. Defense suffers due to offensive mindset. Keeps his feet moving and has a knack to find open ice. Has blazing speed and soft hands which poses a major threat to opposition. Plays well in traffic and willing to take the body. His size will hurt his draft position.

GP 26 20g 27a

Sounds like Rafalski with speed to burn......

#586 cusimano_brothers

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Posted 27 June 2010 - 07:19 AM

From Toronto Star :

...
There were 99 Canadians and 59 Americans drafted among the 210 players. Sweden had 20 taken, Russia eight, Finland seven.
...

...
The Western Hockey League narrowly beat the Ontario Hockey League for the most players chosen, 43-42, with the Quebec league coming in at 22, two more than the USHL.
...


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#587 newfy

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Posted 27 June 2010 - 12:09 PM

Anyone else hear Mackenzie talking about how dynamic Nyquist is and how great he is going to be in the future for the red wings on the TSN draft coverage?

I think it was after we took Pullkinen, he was saying how we got 2 4th round steals in Nyquist and Pulkinen who should both be big time players in the future.

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#588 Aussie_Wing

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Posted 27 June 2010 - 12:17 PM

Anyone else hear Mackenzie talking about how dynamic Nyquist is and how great he is going to be in the future for the red wings on the TSN draft coverage?

I think it was after we took Pullkinen, he was saying how we got 2 4th round steals in Nyquist and Pulkinen who should both be big time players in the future.

I smile when I think about Nyquist. 121st overall was it? What an absolute joke! In a good way of course!

I believe he is our top prospect, just so much upside.

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#589 Majsheppard

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Posted 27 June 2010 - 12:21 PM

The second coming of Brian Rafalski?

Almqvist is already doing that...

Perhaps third?
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Tootoo does NOT belong on this team. He is classless and I would rather see the Wings be bad than classless. I feel the same way about Bertuzzi as well, but he at least CAN make the team better. With Tootoo the team becomes worse and in danger of being classless. Would you have liked Claude on the team? Or Roy? No. So why would you be okay with that POS.

This thread has been closed due to emotions being higher than people's ability to read, interpret, and properly respond to simple posts.

#590 Majsheppard

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Posted 27 June 2010 - 12:53 PM

I smile when I think about Nyquist. 121st overall was it? What an absolute joke! In a good way of course!

I believe he is our top prospect, just so much upside.


Nyquist is going to be that third guy on a line with two superstars, like Johan and Pavel, getting absurd numbers and no credit. Good playmaker.
"It is a lot easier to be an ******* to words than to people"-xkcd

Tootoo does NOT belong on this team. He is classless and I would rather see the Wings be bad than classless. I feel the same way about Bertuzzi as well, but he at least CAN make the team better. With Tootoo the team becomes worse and in danger of being classless. Would you have liked Claude on the team? Or Roy? No. So why would you be okay with that POS.

This thread has been closed due to emotions being higher than people's ability to read, interpret, and properly respond to simple posts.

#591 Heaten

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Posted 27 June 2010 - 02:58 PM

Nyquist is going to be that third guy on a line with two superstars, like Johan and Pavel, getting absurd numbers and no credit. Good playmaker.


Keeping the raises down?

I might be wayyy off base here, but when I hear Nyqvist, I think of Nicklas Bäckström type talent. Have I gone and lost my mind?

#592 Bannedforlife

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Posted 27 June 2010 - 06:46 PM

So..... Who do you guys like for the 2011 draft?

Edited by Bannedforlife, 27 June 2010 - 06:48 PM.


#593 F2B&G

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Posted 27 June 2010 - 06:46 PM

I don't know about putting him in Bäckström's realm yet, but he's definitely going to be one of the three best players in the NCAA next season, if not the best. If Maine can get a capable goalie and make the NCAA tournament, I wouldn't be surprised if he actually won the Hobey Baker this time. The Black Bears lost almost no one to graduation, and he averaged over 1.5 PPG last year (in fact, both of his usual linemates also benefited from his passes and averaged over a PPG). Just keep your fingers crossed that he doesn't get injured.

#594 Majsheppard

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Posted 27 June 2010 - 06:50 PM

Keeping the raises down?

I might be wayyy off base here, but when I hear Nyqvist, I think of Nicklas Bäckström type talent. Have I gone and lost my mind?


Yes. That is asking a bit much of him. But he is without a doubt a guy that makes players better. He should be at least a 70 pt guy if on the top two lines with all-stars.
"It is a lot easier to be an ******* to words than to people"-xkcd

Tootoo does NOT belong on this team. He is classless and I would rather see the Wings be bad than classless. I feel the same way about Bertuzzi as well, but he at least CAN make the team better. With Tootoo the team becomes worse and in danger of being classless. Would you have liked Claude on the team? Or Roy? No. So why would you be okay with that POS.

This thread has been closed due to emotions being higher than people's ability to read, interpret, and properly respond to simple posts.

#595 Opie

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Posted 27 June 2010 - 06:51 PM

Umaine badly needs a tender and D-men.
Their overall team d was weak at best.

They got hot during the Hockey East Tourney but Offense was definitely their strong suit all season.

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#596 Majsheppard

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Posted 27 June 2010 - 06:52 PM

I don't know about putting him in Bäckström's realm yet, but he's definitely going to be one of the three best players in the NCAA next season, if not the best. If Maine can get a capable goalie and make the NCAA tournament, I wouldn't be surprised if he actually won the Hobey Baker this time. The Black Bears lost almost no one to graduation, and he averaged over 1.5 PPG last year (in fact, both of his usual linemates also benefited from his passes and averaged over a PPG). Just keep your fingers crossed that he doesn't get injured.

Wouldn't it have been great if Smith stayed for his senior season and Nyqvist Smith and Sheahan were the finalist for the hobby baker?

lol.
"It is a lot easier to be an ******* to words than to people"-xkcd

Tootoo does NOT belong on this team. He is classless and I would rather see the Wings be bad than classless. I feel the same way about Bertuzzi as well, but he at least CAN make the team better. With Tootoo the team becomes worse and in danger of being classless. Would you have liked Claude on the team? Or Roy? No. So why would you be okay with that POS.

This thread has been closed due to emotions being higher than people's ability to read, interpret, and properly respond to simple posts.

#597 F2B&G

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Posted 27 June 2010 - 07:04 PM

Umaine badly needs a tender and D-men.
Their overall team d was weak at best.

They got hot during the Hockey East Tourney but Offense was definitely their strong suit all season.


I think there was a lot of drama off the ice with Darling that didn't help. With him gone and the other guy graduating, they have two new goalies coming in, so it's basically a clean slate in net.

And I'm happy to see Smith in the Wings system now. I was tired of him lighting up my team. :blush: :rolleyes: :hehe:

#598 newfy

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Posted 27 June 2010 - 07:29 PM

Yes. That is asking a bit much of him. But he is without a doubt a guy that makes players better. He should be at least a 70 pt guy if on the top two lines with all-stars.

Thats what I'm imagining for him. About 70 points or so maybemore but he's also strong defensively so maybe a selke tossed in there. I'm hoping this guy can fill the shoes of aging Dats or Z

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#599 McAwesome

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Posted 28 June 2010 - 09:20 AM

My original response was to someone questioning our 7th round pick, as if we should have targetted someone different. As if we had any likely shot of filling some need or there were other players out there with a better chance of succeeding in the NHL. I was pointing out with a little pithy exaggeration that it was a 7th round pick, and there is only a small chance that said player will ever get a sniff of the NHL.

My follow-up analysis confirms that. Moreover, it goes a ways towards debunking the myth that our late round picks have any abnormal tendency toward success. The quality of our late successes may or may not be better than average. I don't feel like doing that much research. But it's still only about a 1 in 10 chance for a 4th round or later pick to really make the NHL. Pretty much right on league average.


I think that was in reply to my question, so let me clarify: I was not implying that we should have targeted someone else, I had never heard of that kid, and I had read up a lot on the players that were projected to be drafted in rounds 4-7 because that is when we usually find gems that no one else has on their radar. I did not remember seeing that name on any scouting report I had read, hence the question mark above my head. I hope Marshall does well, and if he's lucky or good he may earn himself a spot in the future.

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Thanks MabusIncarnate


#600 FinWing

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Posted 28 June 2010 - 12:53 PM

Mrazek sounds like Hasek, that must be a good sign.
Thank You TeeMan





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