Top 20 and Bottom 20 +/- stats for 09/10 season

[miller76 463]

2009/10 Top 20 Adjusted +/- Ratings

1 Jeff Schultz Was +35.2

2 Alexander Ovechkin Was +30.2

3 Mark Fistric Dal +29.0

4 Daniel Sedin Van +27.8

4 Christian Ehrhoff Van +27.8

6 Henrik Sedin Van +26.8

7 Alexandre Burrows Van +25.8

8 Mike Green Was +24.2

9 Brian Rafalski DET +23.0

10 Chris Pronger Phi +22.2

10 Nicklas Backstrom Was +22.2

12 Nicklas Lidstrom Det +22.0

13 Alexander Semin Was +21.2

13 Steve Downie TB +21.2

15 Zach Parise NJ +20.0

16 Zdeno Chara Bos +19.4

17 Matt Carle Phi +19.2

18 Wayne Simmonds LA +18.8

19 Travis Zajac NJ +18.0

20 Dustin Penner Edm +17.4

2009/10 Worst 20 Counting Stat Adjusted +/- Ratings

1 Rod Brind’Amour Car -25.2

2 Patrick O’Sullivan Edm -23.6

3 Michael Del Zotto NYR -20.0

4 Ruslan Fedotenko Pit -19.0

5 Matt Hunwick Bos -18.6

6 Jack Johnson LA -18.2

7 Chris Butler Buf -17.6

7 Kyle Okposo NYI -17.6

7 Shawn Horcoff Edm -17.6

10 Clarke MacArthur Buf -16.6

10 Dennis Wideman Bos -16.6

12 Dustin Byfuglien Chi -16,2

13 Todd Marchant Ana -15.8

14 Marek Svatos Col -15.6

14 Eric Brewer StL -15.6

14 Ed Jovanovski Pho -15.6

17 Darcy Hordichuk Van -15.2

17 Zach Bogosian Atl -15.2

19 Jonathan Ericsson Det -15.0

20 Kevin Klein Nas -14.6

source

[Guest Crymson]

Throughout the season, I could never wrap my head around how clumsy, lazy, careless and clueless Ericsson was much of the time.

[Echolalia 2,961]

A rookie forward-turned-defensman + a plethora of injuries + the eternal desire of other teams to beat the Red Wings = -15

[stevkrause 1,247]

If this was his 2nd year in the league, we did not have all the injuries AND he was not coupled with a HORRENDOUS Brett Lebda as much as he was... then it'd be something to worry about...

As I pointed out at the end of the season:

After the Olympics when paired with a REAL NHL defense partner:

16GP 1G 1A 2PTS +1

Playoffs:

12 GP 0G 2A 2PTS +1

[WordonaWing 10]

If this was his 2nd year in the league, we did not have all the injuries AND he was not coupled with a HORRENDOUS Brett Lebda as much as he was... then it'd be something to worry about...

As I pointed out at the end of the season:

After the Olympics when paired with a REAL NHL defense partner:

16GP 1G 1A 2PTS +1

Playoffs:

12 GP 0G 2A 2PTS +1

Plus/minus can be such a tricky stat. It's interpreted so many different ways. While I agree with a lot of what you've said here, I feel compelled to respond to your mention of Brett Lebda.

What wouldn't surprise you, is that Lebda was Jonathan Ericsson's most common partner 5-on-5 last season, playing over 326 minutes together overall. However, during that time they were only minus-1 together. Compare that with Ericsson's time on the ice with Brad Stuart and you get a much different picture.

While paired with Stu for only 126 minutes during the season, they were a truly horrendous minus-12. This isn't a damnation of Brad Stuart, I just mention this because I think it more clearly displays the possible reason behind Ericsson's poor +/- during the season -- he just couldn't step up and play against top-6 forwards. This I do find at least a little concerning.

After the Red Wings' saw the return of many of their injured players, Ericsson's +/- improved. I don't think that had anything to do with Lebda though. In that late part of the season, Lilja became Ericsson's partner and together they were plus-1 in 166 minutes together. A rusty Lilja wasn't much of an upgrade over Brett Lebda, in my humble opinion. The statistical improvement Ericsson saw seems to be a product of the Red Wings' increased success and the reduced responsibility he was given.

Back to my conern, I do find it a little troublesome that whenever a more challenging assignment was bestowed upon JE, for the most part, he failed. He'll need to be able to answer those challenges soon, or it's doubtful he'll be that oppressive top-4 defenseman many Wings' fans hoped he would become.

Anyway, just thought I'd throw that out there. In case you're wondering where all this came from, all stats can be found at my blog, Word on a Wing

[martyrme19 73]

Plus/minus can be such a tricky stat. It's interpreted so many different ways. While I agree with a lot of what you've said here, I feel compelled to respond to your mention of Brett Lebda.

What wouldn't surprise you, is that Lebda was Jonathan Ericsson's most common partner 5-on-5 last season, playing over 326 minutes together overall. However, during that time they were only minus-1 together. Compare that with Ericsson's time on the ice with Brad Stuart and you get a much different picture.

While paired with Stu for only 126 minutes during the season, they were a truly horrendous minus-12. This isn't a damnation of Brad Stuart, I just mention this because I think it more clearly displays the possible reason behind Ericsson's poor +/- during the season -- he just couldn't step up and play against top-6 forwards. This I do find at least a little concerning.

After the Red Wings' saw the return of many of their injured players, Ericsson's +/- improved. I don't think that had anything to do with Lebda though. In that late part of the season, Lilja became Ericsson's partner and together they were plus-1 in 166 minutes together. A rusty Lilja wasn't much of an upgrade over Brett Lebda, in my humble opinion. The statistical improvement Ericsson saw seems to be a product of the Red Wings' increased success and the reduced responsibility he was given.

Back to my conern, I do find it a little troublesome that whenever a more challenging assignment was bestowed upon JE, for the most part, he failed. He'll need to be able to answer those challenges soon, or it's doubtful he'll be that oppressive top-4 defenseman many Wings' fans hoped he would become.

Anyway, just thought I'd throw that out there. In case you're wondering where all this came from, all stats can be found at my blog, Word on a Wing

This is an incredibly informative and insightful post. Thanks for that.

[stevkrause 1,247]

Plus/minus can be such a tricky stat. It's interpreted so many different ways. While I agree with a lot of what you've said here, I feel compelled to respond to your mention of Brett Lebda.

What wouldn't surprise you, is that Lebda was Jonathan Ericsson's most common partner 5-on-5 last season, playing over 326 minutes together overall. However, during that time they were only minus-1 together. Compare that with Ericsson's time on the ice with Brad Stuart and you get a much different picture.

While paired with Stu for only 126 minutes during the season, they were a truly horrendous minus-12. This isn't a damnation of Brad Stuart, I just mention this because I think it more clearly displays the possible reason behind Ericsson's poor +/- during the season -- he just couldn't step up and play against top-6 forwards. This I do find at least a little concerning.

After the Red Wings' saw the return of many of their injured players, Ericsson's +/- improved. I don't think that had anything to do with Lebda though. In that late part of the season, Lilja became Ericsson's partner and together they were plus-1 in 166 minutes together. A rusty Lilja wasn't much of an upgrade over Brett Lebda, in my humble opinion. The statistical improvement Ericsson saw seems to be a product of the Red Wings' increased success and the reduced responsibility he was given.

Back to my conern, I do find it a little troublesome that whenever a more challenging assignment was bestowed upon JE, for the most part, he failed. He'll need to be able to answer those challenges soon, or it's doubtful he'll be that oppressive top-4 defenseman many Wings' fans hoped he would become.

Anyway, just thought I'd throw that out there. In case you're wondering where all this came from, all stats can be found at my blog, Word on a Wing

How did you come across these stats, did you just compile them all yourself? Pretty cool stuff!

If anything, I don't find it quite as alarming about E's ability to become a top 4 guy (as he was still a rookie) as much as it makes me want to NEVER see him paired with Stuart... with that said, your chart just further proves another point I've been saying all along, we need to change the D pairing to better utilize each players strengths and better cover their weaknesses:

Lidstrom-Kronwall

Stuart-Rafalski

Ericsson-Lilja

Each pairing has a physical element, a guy that can QB the play and a guy more likely to join the rush, paired with a more stay at home type player...

[WordonaWing 10]

This is an incredibly informative and insightful post. Thanks for that.

You're most welcome. I'm glad you found it useful.

How did you come across these stats, did you just compile them all yourself? Pretty cool stuff!

If anything, I don't find it quite as alarming about E's ability to become a top 4 guy (as he was still a rookie) as much as it makes me want to NEVER see him paired with Stuart... with that said, your chart just further proves another point I've been saying all along, we need to change the D pairing to better utilize each players strengths and better cover their weaknesses:

Lidstrom-Kronwall

Stuart-Rafalski

Ericsson-Lilja

Each pairing has a physical element, a guy that can QB the play and a guy more likely to join the rush, paired with a more stay at home type player...

Yes, those stats were compiled by myself with some pretty complex spreadsheets, all game summaries from NHL.com and the data from timeonice.com.

I too would like to see Lidstrom and Kronwall play more together 5-on-5. Those pairings seem pretty good and yeah, Stuart should not be paired with Ericsson is at all avoidable. I really hope Big E can take the next step next season though. He's going to need to learn how to handle more than 3rd and 4th line forwards. I still have faith he can though.

[egroen 384]

How did you come across these stats, did you just compile them all yourself? Pretty cool stuff!

If anything, I don't find it quite as alarming about E's ability to become a top 4 guy (as he was still a rookie) as much as it makes me want to NEVER see him paired with Stuart... with that said, your chart just further proves another point I've been saying all along, we need to change the D pairing to better utilize each players strengths and better cover their weaknesses:

Lidstrom-Kronwall

Stuart-Rafalski

Ericsson-Lilja

Each pairing has a physical element, a guy that can QB the play and a guy more likely to join the rush, paired with a more stay at home type player...

A handy tool for looking at line combinations:

http://www.dobberhockey.com/frozenpool_linecombo.php

[WordonaWing 10]

A handy tool for looking at line combinations:

http://www.dobberhoc...l_linecombo.php

Wow! It's been a long time since I've been to dobberhockey, I didn't realize they'd added that sort of stuff. Awesome!

[stevkrause 1,247]

A handy tool for looking at line combinations:

http://www.dobberhockey.com/frozenpool_linecombo.php

I like that site too for that, but it doesn't give detailed info like +/- by line combo, etc...

[luvmnger 125]

i have been screaming for lebda to become a forward/defensman for a long time.

i like the guy....enough to watch his shifts directly and he is a solid #5 #6 d-man.

pairing is the key. he plays like coffey and needs someone to stay back when he is pressing the zone. now, i am not a stats guy....but his play was way better than E's and he made less mistakes than stuart on the whole.(hell...i noticed a 6 million dollar defenseman making bigger mistakes more often!)

i know that this forum hates him and wants him to go....i just feel that he had potential and could have been used in a better way to maximize his assets.

make him a forward!

Detroit is one of the best systems in the league, but they may not be able to pin point players assets as best as we think...see ville leino.

i did not like that guy at all. but philly sure found his niche.

i bet that someone finds lebda's offensive possibilities and he has a good year.

*if he ends up on a top 20 team...that is.

[stevkrause 1,247]

i have been screaming for lebda to become a forward/defensman for a long time.

i like the guy....enough to watch his shifts directly and he is a solid #5 #6 d-man.

pairing is the key. he plays like coffey and needs someone to stay back when he is pressing the zone. now, i am not a stats guy....but his play was way better than E's and he made less mistakes than stuart on the whole.(hell...i noticed a 6 million dollar defenseman making bigger mistakes more often!)

i know that this forum hates him and wants him to go....i just feel that he had potential and could have been used in a better way to maximize his assets.

make him a forward!

Detroit is one of the best systems in the league, but they may not be able to pin point players assets as best as we think...see ville leino.

i did not like that guy at all. but philly sure found his niche.

i bet that someone finds lebda's offensive possibilities and he has a good year.

*if he ends up on a top 20 team...that is.

This is all opinion and conjecture... we still can't say Leino has "found his niche" until he's had a solid, FULL season... there are TONS of NHL players that hit hot streaks during a playoff run, who went on to have otherwise mediocre at best careers overall and I still think that will be the story on Leino when all is said and done...

back to Lebda, he peaked here when he had Chelios playing GREAT hockey alongside him and even as Chelios aged, his positioning was 2nd to none... Lebda will never be anything more than a speedster with lead hands, a relatively weak shot and sub-par outlet passing abilities... he will be lucky to latch on to another NHL team and crack the top 6 and I will boldly predict he will NEVER be above a 5/6 d-man in the league - If I'm wrong, I will eat crow...

Until the story has played out, all we can go off of, is what has already happened and the FACTS are:

Lebda's last 2 years in Detroit - VERY POOR

Leino's career in Detroit - Invisible and poor

[Drake_Marcus 890]

Plus/minus can be such a tricky stat. It's interpreted so many different ways. While I agree with a lot of what you've said here, I feel compelled to respond to your mention of Brett Lebda.

What wouldn't surprise you, is that Lebda was Jonathan Ericsson's most common partner 5-on-5 last season, playing over 326 minutes together overall. However, during that time they were only minus-1 together. Compare that with Ericsson's time on the ice with Brad Stuart and you get a much different picture.

While paired with Stu for only 126 minutes during the season, they were a truly horrendous minus-12. This isn't a damnation of Brad Stuart, I just mention this because I think it more clearly displays the possible reason behind Ericsson's poor +/- during the season -- he just couldn't step up and play against top-6 forwards. This I do find at least a little concerning.

After the Red Wings' saw the return of many of their injured players, Ericsson's +/- improved. I don't think that had anything to do with Lebda though. In that late part of the season, Lilja became Ericsson's partner and together they were plus-1 in 166 minutes together. A rusty Lilja wasn't much of an upgrade over Brett Lebda, in my humble opinion. The statistical improvement Ericsson saw seems to be a product of the Red Wings' increased success and the reduced responsibility he was given.

Back to my conern, I do find it a little troublesome that whenever a more challenging assignment was bestowed upon JE, for the most part, he failed. He'll need to be able to answer those challenges soon, or it's doubtful he'll be that oppressive top-4 defenseman many Wings' fans hoped he would become.

Anyway, just thought I'd throw that out there. In case you're wondering where all this came from, all stats can be found at my blog, Word on a Wing

Good response. But it's worth noting that Stuart had a terrible 2nd half after Kronwall came back. He was a consistent minus in that period and most people (including Babs) thought it had to do with how much energy he expended as a top pairing guy in the first half of the season. In the 2nd half of the year there were games where Brad was our worst d-man. (Of course he was brilliant in the playoffs)

[Drake_Marcus 890]

And as far as being an oppressive, shutdown d-man... well anyone who thought he would be that must have gathered that from his height and weight instead of reading a scouting report or watching him play in Grand Rapids.

Ericsson is and always has been an offensive defenseman. He's used to being on the PP and taking some chances out there. He was GR's scoring d-man, not their defense first shutdown guy. Yeah he always did well on the PK in GR, but his first job was always to unload his slapper from the point.

Part of the problem last season was that E was asked to play a brand of hockey he wasn't comfortable with-- that lead to his pinching and making offensive plays when he was supposed to play a simple, safe brand of hockey. Did anyone else notice that his defensive game was worst when he wasn't putting points up? Ericsson's confidence out there is directly tied to his production. For the first month of the season he lead the defense in scoring and he looked fine out there. Once he started slumping offensively everything else went to s***.

If anything last season just proved something everyone knows about rookies-- consistency is the difference between great hockey players and mediocre ones. Once Ericsson discovers his consistency he'll be a good 2nd pairing defenseman.

Give E some PP time and get him working on speeding up the delivery time for his slapper and good things will happen. Ask him to be something he's not (a Lilja clone) and he won't perform like he should.

Edited June 21, 2010 by Drake_Marcus

[WordonaWing 10]

And as far as being an oppressive, shutdown d-man... well anyone who thought he would be that must have gathered that from his height and weight instead of reading a scouting report or watching him play in Grand Rapids.

Ericsson is and always has been an offensive defenseman. He's used to being on the PP and taking some chances out there. He was GR's scoring d-man, not their defense first shutdown guy. Yeah he always did well on the PK in GR, but his first job was always to unload his slapper from the point.

Part of the problem last season was that E was asked to play a brand of hockey he wasn't comfortable with-- that lead to his pinching and making offensive plays when he was supposed to play a simple, safe brand of hockey. Did anyone else notice that his defensive game was worst when he wasn't putting points up? Ericsson's confidence out there is directly tied to his production. For the first month of the season he lead the defense in scoring and he looked fine out there. Once he started slumping offensively everything else went to s***.

If anything last season just proved something everyone knows about rookies-- consistency is the difference between great hockey players and mediocre ones. Once Ericsson discovers his consistency he'll be a good 2nd pairing defenseman.

Give E some PP time and get him working on speeding up the delivery time for his slapper and good things will happen. Ask him to be something he's not (a Lilja clone) and he won't perform like he should.

Hi Drake,

I used the word "oppressive" and the reason I did so was because Ericsson has shown the ability to be good in his own zone. This was very well demonstrated by both his play in the AHL and mentioned in several scouting reports. His 34 points wasn't so impressive that it alone got him to the all-star game -- he also had a great defensive game. It's worth noting that in his years for Grand Rapids he was never the leading goal-scoring Dman in the team, outdone by Derek Meech and Garrett Stafford in his two main seasons. The only offensive upside to his game is his big slapshot and his first pass. And these are great upsides but, and his is just my assessment so take it for what it's worth, I feel that he'll need much more than that to be an effective defenseman. And I believe he does have much more than that.

He has size and he uses it. He has shown he can play a physical game and I've also seen him quite effective with his stick, making use of his long reach and good stick-handling. So this is the reasoning behind why I hoped he could be an "oppressive" defenseman. I hope it makes more sense to you now.

It's also important to me to never limit a player's future to his past. Particularly a guy like Ericsson, who is still completing his transition into a defenseman. The Red Wings front office have made a dynasty out of asking their players to be something they are not. Sometimes it doesn't work -- Leino. Sometimes it does -- Yzerman.

With everything else -- I totally agree. You're are right. Just like most, his confidence is vital to his consistency and getting numbers seems to affect his confidence quite a bit.

[Drake_Marcus 890]

Hi Drake,

I used the word "oppressive" and the reason I did so was because Ericsson has shown the ability to be good in his own zone. This was very well demonstrated by both his play in the AHL and mentioned in several scouting reports. His 34 points wasn't so impressive that it alone got him to the all-star game -- he also had a great defensive game. It's worth noting that in his years for Grand Rapids he was never the leading goal-scoring Dman in the team, outdone by Derek Meech and Garrett Stafford in his two main seasons. The only offensive upside to his game is his big slapshot and his first pass. And these are great upsides but, and his is just my assessment so take it for what it's worth, I feel that he'll need much more than that to be an effective defenseman. And I believe he does have much more than that.

He has size and he uses it. He has shown he can play a physical game and I've also seen him quite effective with his stick, making use of his long reach and good stick-handling. So this is the reasoning behind why I hoped he could be an "oppressive" defenseman. I hope it makes more sense to you now.

It's also important to me to never limit a player's future to his past. Particularly a guy like Ericsson, who is still completing his transition into a defenseman. The Red Wings front office have made a dynasty out of asking their players to be something they are not. Sometimes it doesn't work -- Leino. Sometimes it does -- Yzerman.

With everything else -- I totally agree. You're are right. Just like most, his confidence is vital to his consistency and getting numbers seems to affect his confidence quite a bit.

I didn't count Stafford because he wasn't a true Wings prospect. Good point on the goal scoring, though. Right now his big limitation (aside from confidence) is that he takes too long to wind up his shot. If he could get his 100mph slapshot off quicker he'd be pretty dangerous on the point if only due to the strength of the shot (Chara's a good comparison for that effect).

[Guest Crymson]

My issues with Ericsson come less from looking at his +/- stats and more from having watched him make mistakes again and again, game after game. My personal favorite was when, in an OT game against the Coyotes, Ericsson was guarding the front of the net but decided to completely ignore the front of the net and stop covering Shane Doan and instead leave his spot in front of the net in order to chase someone whom Stuart already had covered. This left wide open both the crease area and Shane Doan. Doan got the puck and had all the time and space in the world to beat Howard. The whole thing was symbolic of just how stupid Ericsson was last year. I don't think he's dumb. I just think he's careless.

The play in question is here:

Edited June 21, 2010 by Crymson

[Hossa4Life 4]

i was never really a big fan of +/- . According to these stats ovy is one of the best all around players in the league. I dont think he plays d at all unless he can get a big hit. A d man could let in only 30 goals all season, but if they are on a bad offensive line that never produces any points they have the one of the worst +/-.

Definetly not the case with big E but it can be a misleading stat for other players. Dats and kessler are not even on there and they are the top selke nominees.

[WordonaWing 10]

i was never really a big fan of +/- . According to these stats ovy is one of the best all around players in the league. I dont think he plays d at all unless he can get a big hit. A d man could let in only 30 goals all season, but if they are on a bad offensive line that never produces any points they have the one of the worst +/-.

Definetly not the case with big E but it can be a misleading stat for other players. Dats and kessler are not even on there and they are the top selke nominees.

This is true and one of the biggest reasons why I compiled the stats I did. It helps display how players help or hinder their team-mates to make the +/- stat more relevant. Just like how in this discussion, you really can't blame Lebda for Ericsson's bad plus/minus rating even though it seems, at first glance, like it would be a factor.

[Bring Back The Bruise Bros 1,029]

Although he played on a bad team,its surprising to see good ol' Rod Brind'Amour so far down at the bottom.

[miller76 463]

Although he played on a bad team,its surprising to see good ol' Rod Brind'Amour so far down at the bottom.

Your surprised he was a -25.2 this season? He was a -23 in 08-09 season, and a flat 0 in 07-08. The best he has been in the last ten years is a +7 back in the 06-07 season. He is typically in the negative.

Edited June 22, 2010 by miller76

[Bring Back The Bruise Bros 1,029]

Yeah he's a career -39.for some reason I've always thought of him as a good defensive forward.But apparently not.

[Heroes of Hockeytown 694]

Yeah he's a career -39.for some reason I've always thought of him as a good defensive forward.But apparently not.

You probably thought that because he has won the Selke twice in his career and been a nominee a couple other times. The last couple years have been terribly unkind to Brind'Amour.

[eva unit zero 271]

Hi Drake,

I used the word "oppressive" and the reason I did so was because Ericsson has shown the ability to be good in his own zone. This was very well demonstrated by both his play in the AHL and mentioned in several scouting reports. His 34 points wasn't so impressive that it alone got him to the all-star game -- he also had a great defensive game. It's worth noting that in his years for Grand Rapids he was never the leading goal-scoring Dman in the team, outdone by Derek Meech and Garrett Stafford in his two main seasons. The only offensive upside to his game is his big slapshot and his first pass. And these are great upsides but, and his is just my assessment so take it for what it's worth, I feel that he'll need much more than that to be an effective defenseman. And I believe he does have much more than that.

He has size and he uses it. He has shown he can play a physical game and I've also seen him quite effective with his stick, making use of his long reach and good stick-handling. So this is the reasoning behind why I hoped he could be an "oppressive" defenseman. I hope it makes more sense to you now.

It's also important to me to never limit a player's future to his past. Particularly a guy like Ericsson, who is still completing his transition into a defenseman. The Red Wings front office have made a dynasty out of asking their players to be something they are not. Sometimes it doesn't work -- Leino. Sometimes it does -- Yzerman.

With everything else -- I totally agree. You're are right. Just like most, his confidence is vital to his consistency and getting numbers seems to affect his confidence quite a bit.

Ericsson is still a pretty raw prospect. He has good skills, and the right tools to be a good defensive defenseman, the kind who keeps the Holmstroms and Buttugliens watching their backs. But he's still learning that aspect; not too long ago he was a forward who played an offense-first game. As far as the kind of defenseman he "could" become? He's probably the closest thing the Wings have had to Jiri Fischer since, well, Jiri Fischer. He needs to work on speeding up his release a LOT, and he needs work on his defensive positioning and playing a more consistent physical game - when he is 'on' he's a monster to deal with. Other nights, he's a pushover. I don't think he has Fischer's ceiling, but he definitely can be a good all-around top-four guy and his ceiling is first-pairing.

Kindl is the real question. Similar size and defensive/physical questions, but better puck skills and a notably higher ceiling.