Yeah those high risk picks always make you better in the long run and mean you won't have a winning team in the future if you don't take them
Nothing is 100% sure in anything. Like I said, if you're only going to go after "zero risk" guys you can forget about being a winning franchise in the future. I'd say the chance of him becoming a first liner is pretty much the same as McIlrath becoming a top4 d-man.
That high risk pick of Zherdev at #4 who had all the talent in the world was a way better pick then say Mike Richards at 24 or Getzlaf at 19. That pick looks stupid now, and at least Zherdev is still in the league. If we have a guy with all the talent in the world playing in the KHL it doesn't exactly help the wings win games. Yeah all those goals Hudler got for Dynamo Moscow really helped our playoff run last year too.
High risk picks aren't smart in the first round when you can get proven top 6 players or top 4 defenseman with 0 risk at all. As for you saying the wings drafting Europeans have worked out in the past, Kindl isn't exactly looking amazing right now. Ad pretty much all the rest (except Kronwall I think) were not taken in the 1st round.