White for Rafalski, win? I know you are trying to make a point, and bend a lot of things in doing so, but I am going to have to whole heartedly disagree with you on this one. There is no way White will replicate Rafalski's 48 point, +11 season (and that was last year, by far his worst year)
I am curious what your source is in citing that "the cap will probably be lowered" next year?
Everything I have read leads to the exact opposite of your statement. You see the cap is directly reliant on league revenues, since the league has been increasing their profits, the cap has continued to rise. Projections are holding historically steady in a continue rise in revenue next year, hence another cap bump - just as there has been every year since the lockout.
The ONLY way the cap will be lowered is if the league revenues flat line or dip -- which, with the past 7 years as an indicator, ain't going to happen.
And lastly, there is quite literally ZERO change that either Emmerton or Mursak ever see the top 6. Nada, zip, zero, zilch chance. Both will be career 4th liners, and in my opinion, neither will make the team better. Not saying Draper or Modano were better, just pointing out that the inclusion of Mursak and Emmerton into the lineup will not make the team "better".
I didn't say White would match Rafalski's offense. I in fact said the opposite. I said it was a win for Holland on the fact that White was one of the best options available to fill the offensive hole, and brings his own advantages over what Rafalski brought.
The current formula works as you have stated. However, the cap increased at a rate much quicker than expected by the league, so teams are actually spending more now than before the lockout. The cap formula will likely be changed, and the cap for 2011-12 will be lower than 2010-11. Depending on how much they lower it, it wouldn't be surprising to see a reduction/buyout situation similar to what happened in 2005. Although I would expect only the cap hit to be reduced.
As for Emmerton and Mursak, both are projected as top-six forwards. They certainly can reach that level. Maybe not this year or next, but in five years? Eight years?
Edited by eva unit zero, 31 July 2011 - 11:29 PM.