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1 hour ago, krsmith17 said:

Are those three loose definitions really all that different though? All define what I believe to be a "goal scorer". Better than your definition of any player that scores a goal...

Good god man, tripling down on the straw man argument. Do you need to reread or do I really have to flesh this one out?

1 hour ago, krsmith17 said:

Yes, I suppose any player could be a goal scorer, but like I said, I highly doubt I would consider either of Rasmussen or Bertuzzi to be goal scorers at any point in their NHL careers. 

Our team was ranked 21st in goals for, with the majority of our best young forwards already on the team. Veleno and Zadina should make a difference in a few years. Veleno, setting guys up (playmaker), and Zadina, scoring goals (goal scorer). Maybe a Berggren or another player surprises, but aside from that, Larkin, Mantha, Bertuzzi and Athanasiou are our core forwards.

Our team was ranked 27th in goals against, with the majority of our best young defensemen yet to see full time duty in the NHL. Hronek and Cholowski played half seasons as rookies. We just drafted Seider who could be a stud. We also have a whole slew of other young defensemen that could surprise. Kronwall, Ericsson and Daley are all past their prime / bad.

I think our defense is much better going forward. You disagree, and that's fine. Regardless though, I think it would be dumb to trade our best goal scorer, plus possibly other assets for a top 4 defenseman.

Ok so Larkin is a play maker, not a goal scorer, even though he scores the most goals on the team.
Athansiou is a goal scorer
Mantha is goal scorer
Zadina is a goal scorer even though he hasn't breached 20 goals in the AHL yet
Veleno is a playmaker
Bertuzzi is not a goal scorer, so he must be a playmaker?
Rasmussen is not a goal scorer, is he a playmaker?
What is Berggren?
What makes someone a playmaker anyway? A player that has a lethal pass and can pass from anywhere on the ice, in a multitude of different ways?

 

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53 minutes ago, krsmith17 said:

I didn't mention his linemates... As I said, Athanasiou can self create, better than anyone on the team and most guys in the entire league. I also never said Athanasiou is not a top six winger... I just like him in a middle six role, for the reason stated above.

"Virtually identical rates". "Overall rates are very similar". Mantha did have the slight edge, no? I guess I was right in saying that I'd give the slight edge to Mantha then... Again, I don't think there's a huge difference in overall goal scoring ability between the two, but I do think Mantha is slightly better.

Of course you didn't mention linemates. You'd only do that if it supported your argument. 

24/81 = .2963  -  36/122 = .2951. I don't have icetime data for the AHL, but I assume it would be similar.

Last 3 years NHL: AA = 1.19 g/60, Mantha = 1.13. While AA has played more games, Mantha has played more minutes.

So no, you're wrong. Statistically the slight edge, at least in the NHL, clearly goes to AA. AHL as well using the data we have.

 

 

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12 minutes ago, ChristopherReevesLegs said:

Good god man, tripling down on the straw man argument. Do you need to reread or do I really have to flesh this one out?

Ok so Larkin is a play maker, not a goal scorer, even though he scores the most goals on the team.
Athansiou is a goal scorer
Mantha is goal scorer
Zadina is a goal scorer even though he hasn't breached 20 goals in the AHL yet
Veleno is a playmaker
Bertuzzi is not a goal scorer, so he must be a playmaker?
Rasmussen is not a goal scorer, is he a playmaker?
What is Berggren?
What makes someone a playmaker anyway? A player that has a lethal pass and can pass from anywhere on the ice, in a multitude of different ways?

I would describe Larkin as a two-way forward. I guess you're not sure what that is either?

Yes, a playmaker is a player that is a very good passer and can set up his teammates. Usually pass first mentality.

I know this must all be very difficult for you to grasp...

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15 minutes ago, Buppy said:

Of course you didn't mention linemates. You'd only do that if it supported your argument. 

24/81 = .2963  -  36/122 = .2951. I don't have icetime data for the AHL, but I assume it would be similar.

Last 3 years NHL: AA = 1.19 g/60, Mantha = 1.13. While AA has played more games, Mantha has played more minutes.

So no, you're wrong. Statistically the slight edge, at least in the NHL, clearly goes to AA. AHL as well using the data we have.

No, my argument right from the beginning was that Athanasiou is very good at creating opportunities on his own. He's the fastest and one of the most skilled players on the team. Why else do you think he's constantly playing lower in the lineup?

"Only do that if it supports my argument"... Yeah, kind of the way you completely dismissed the 10 games Mantha put up 8 goals... Didn't really jive with the point you were trying to make, so leave those games out...

Right, let's not use quality of competition. That doesn't fit your argument either...

Mantha is and has been a better goal scorer his entire career. Athanasiou creates a ton of opportunities himself, and he capitalizes on a lot of those opportunities.

You're acting as if I'm saying Athanasiou is not a good goal scorer, or Mantha is far superior. I'm not. Athanasiou is a great goal scorer. One of the best on the team.

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Just now, krsmith17 said:

I would describe Larkin as a two-way forward. I guess you're not sure what that is either?

Yes, a playmaker is a player that is a very good passer and can set up his teammates. Usually pass first mentality.

I know this must all be very difficult for you to grasp...

Yes useless arbitrary labels do confound me.

Ah I see, Larkin is not a goal scorer, he's a two-way forward. What's a two-way forward? A guy who can pass and goal score?

Somebody should tell Bertuzzi to stop scoring so many goals, and let a true goal scorer focus on that. Which one is he again? Playmaker or two-way forward?

I'm gonna go out on a limb here and say Athanasiou is more of dangler than a goal scorer. For that reason I think we need even more goal scorers than you originally suggested

 

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11 minutes ago, ChristopherReevesLegs said:

Yes useless arbitrary labels do confound me.

Ah I see, Larkin is not a goal scorer, he's a two-way forward. What's a two-way forward? A guy who can pass and goal score?

Somebody should tell Bertuzzi to stop scoring so many goals, and let a true goal scorer focus on that. Which one is he again? Playmaker or two-way forward?

I'm gonna go out on a limb here and say Athanasiou is more of dangler than a goal scorer. For that reason I think we need even more goal scorers than you originally suggested

More trolling?

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9 minutes ago, krsmith17 said:

More trolling?

In fact it might you who is trolling me with these useless labels. After all I learned today that 32 goal Larkin isn't a goal scorer :shock: how could this be?... seems like trolling to me.

But lets continue cause I'm having fun now:

Athanasiou = 50% dangler + 50% goal-scorer
Mantha = 50% power-forward + 50% goal-scorer
Zadina = 100% goal scorer
Larkin = 0% goal scorer

Add that up and we only have about 1 and a half goal scorers in the system. And seeing as Zadina is still just a prospect who may never even make the team, we truly only have about a one total goal scorer on the roster. Considering you thought we should have more than 3... I'd say we need to add at least 3 more legit goal scorers to the roster at this given time.

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5 minutes ago, ChristopherReevesLegs said:

In fact it might you who is trolling me with these useless labels. After all I learned today that 32 goal Larkin isn't a goal scorer :shock: how could this be?... seems like trolling to me.

But lets continue cause I'm having fun now:

Athanasiou = 50% dangler + 50% goal-scorer
Mantha = 50% power-forward + 50% goal-scorer
Zadina = 100% goal scorer
Larkin = 0% goal scorer

Add that up and we only have about 1 and a half goal scorers in the system. And seeing as Zadina is still just a prospect who may never even make the team, we truly only have about a one total goal scorer on the roster. Considering you thought we should have more than 3... I'd say we need to add at least 3 more legit goal scorers to the roster at this given time.

So dumb.

You've clearly never read a single scouting report on any of these players or NHL players in general.

I'm done here.

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44 minutes ago, krsmith17 said:

No, my argument right from the beginning was that Athanasiou is very good at creating opportunities on his own. He's the fastest and one of the most skilled players on the team. Why else do you think he's constantly playing lower in the lineup?

"Only do that if it supports my argument"... Yeah, kind of the way you completely dismissed the 10 games Mantha put up 8 goals... Didn't really jive with the point you were trying to make, so leave those games out...

Right, let's not use quality of competition. That doesn't fit your argument either...

Mantha is and has been a better goal scorer his entire career. Athanasiou creates a ton of opportunities himself, and he capitalizes on a lot of those opportunities.

You're acting as if I'm saying Athanasiou is not a good goal scorer, or Mantha is far superior. I'm not. Athanasiou is a great goal scorer. One of the best on the team.

So predictable, lol. 

I didn't use those 10 games because they happened a year after AA had stopped playing at that level. Again, we all know what you'd say if someone tried to use something like that against Mantha. Considering they scored around the same in the NHL, it could be argued that AA could just as easily have done the same thing, had he gone to the AHL that year.

But if it will really make you feel better then fine. Even though he started out worse, with the benefit of a almost a full extra year of maturity and 40-odd extra games of practice, Mantha did eventually surpass what AA did in his more limited time in the AHL. Since we can only speculate at AA's performance at that stage of development, it's plausible Mantha might have retained a slight statistical edge even in a fair comparison, even though in the actual fair comparison we can make, it was AA with the edge.

Happy?

I dismiss QoC because it's a speculative non-argument due to the fact that we lack even enough information to quantify the extent that it exists in this case, much less what impact it has. Do you have the data showing the amount of ice-time each player has played against each other player in the league over their career? Can you cite an study which would then allow us to make even a roughly accurate adjustment to their scoring rates? And then the same for quality of teammates?

Don't have any of that? Good, then we can dismiss it. For all we know it could be the exact opposite of what you think anyway. With the loss of Z, his production, his increased ice-time...it's probably safe to assume AAs level of competition this year was higher than his first two years, yet it was his most productive. You're just assuming it would support your Mantha opinion because that's what you want to believe.

But it's probably about time for you start hiding under your opinion blanket anyway. So I'll save you the trouble: It's your opinion that Mantha is better than the data says he is. Guess I can't argue with that. 

Scoreboard can though: 30 > 25. Or if you prefer: 32.4 > 30.6. Or the simplified version: AA > Mantha.

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41 minutes ago, Buppy said:

So predictable, lol. 

I didn't use those 10 games because they happened a year after AA had stopped playing at that level. Again, we all know what you'd say if someone tried to use something like that against Mantha. Considering they scored around the same in the NHL, it could be argued that AA could just as easily have done the same thing, had he gone to the AHL that year.

But if it will really make you feel better then fine. Even though he started out worse, with the benefit of a almost a full extra year of maturity and 40-odd extra games of practice, Mantha did eventually surpass what AA did in his more limited time in the AHL. Since we can only speculate at AA's performance at that stage of development, it's plausible Mantha might have retained a slight statistical edge even in a fair comparison, even though in the actual fair comparison we can make, it was AA with the edge.

Happy?

I dismiss QoC because it's a speculative non-argument due to the fact that we lack even enough information to quantify the extent that it exists in this case, much less what impact it has. Do you have the data showing the amount of ice-time each player has played against each other player in the league over their career? Can you cite an study which would then allow us to make even a roughly accurate adjustment to their scoring rates? And then the same for quality of teammates?

Don't have any of that? Good, then we can dismiss it. For all we know it could be the exact opposite of what you think anyway. With the loss of Z, his production, his increased ice-time...it's probably safe to assume AAs level of competition this year was higher than his first two years, yet it was his most productive. You're just assuming it would support your Mantha opinion because that's what you want to believe.

But it's probably about time for you start hiding under your opinion blanket anyway. So I'll save you the trouble: It's your opinion that Mantha is better than the data says he is. Guess I can't argue with that. 

Scoreboard can though: 30 > 25. Or if you prefer: 32.4 > 30.6. Or the simplified version: AA > Mantha.

Yeah, let's dismiss quality of competition, because you say it's a worthless stat. Let's only consider goals per 60, because you assume that's the most telling stat. Let's only look at one season, a season that happens to be Athanasiou's breakout season and a season where Mantha suffered a hand injury. I'm going to cherry pick the 2017-18 season, since it's the only full season Mantha played without a hand injury... Mantha had 1.04 G/60 that season and Athanasiou had 0.88 G/60. Or better yet, let's wait to see how this next season plays out to see who is the better goal scorer. My bet is on Mantha. We'll see.

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20 minutes ago, krsmith17 said:

Yeah, let's dismiss quality of competition, because you say it's a worthless stat. Let's only consider goals per 60, because you assume that's the most telling stat. Let's only look at one season, a season that happens to be Athanasiou's breakout season and a season where Mantha suffered a hand injury. I'm going to cherry pick the 2017-18 season, since it's the only full season Mantha played without a hand injury... Mantha had 1.04 G/60 that season and Athanasiou had 0.88 G/60. Or better yet, let's wait to see how this next season plays out to see who is the better goal scorer. My bet is on Mantha. We'll see.

AA is better.  A lot more game.

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57 minutes ago, krsmith17 said:

Yeah, let's dismiss quality of competition, because you say it's a worthless stat. Let's only consider goals per 60, because you assume that's the most telling stat. Let's only look at one season, a season that happens to be Athanasiou's breakout season and a season where Mantha suffered a hand injury. I'm going to cherry pick the 2017-18 season, since it's the only full season Mantha played without a hand injury... Mantha had 1.04 G/60 that season and Athanasiou had 0.88 G/60. Or better yet, let's wait to see how this next season plays out to see who is the better goal scorer. My bet is on Mantha. We'll see.

I'm not saying QoC is a worthless stat. I'm saying it's not a stat at all, because we don't have any data for it. It's like trying to judge players based on goals scored without actually knowing how many goals they scored.

What was Mantha's QoC? Specifically, not just some vague and unsubstantiated "1st line" nonsense. Like how many minutes did he play against Victor Hedman? And everyone else in the league? Then provide the same data for AA. Then explain exactly how we should expect that QoC to impact their scoring rates, including your methodology and proofs. Again, be specific, and not just some "it makes AA worse" nonsense.

Yes, goals scored is a pretty useful stat for determining how well a player scores goals. G/60 is useful for comparisons, since it is a constant unit of time. As opposed to games played, where obviously 1 GP is not the same in every situation. Technically we should take special teams play into account, but doing so would just shift the data a little further in AA's favor so I didn't bother. 

And finally I looked at all three full seasons. That's the 1.19 > 1.13 I gave you earlier. AA has been better over all, in two of three seasons, and in the most recent. That's why I say he's the better scorer. Because that's what the data says. Maybe next year will be different, maybe not. What I am sure of is that if AA does outscore Mantha next year you will be doing your best to come up with some excuse for it. We're not far from you blaming the organization for ruining him.

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it looks like you are trying to split hairs. I think we can all agree on the fact that we have  two real good wingers in Mantha and AA and and the end of the day we don´t want trade any of them. They both have qualities the other has not and that looks like a good thing to me.

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4 hours ago, Buppy said:

I'm not saying QoC is a worthless stat. I'm saying it's not a stat at all, because we don't have any data for it. It's like trying to judge players based on goals scored without actually knowing how many goals they scored.

What was Mantha's QoC? Specifically, not just some vague and unsubstantiated "1st line" nonsense. Like how many minutes did he play against Victor Hedman? And everyone else in the league? Then provide the same data for AA. Then explain exactly how we should expect that QoC to impact their scoring rates, including your methodology and proofs. Again, be specific, and not just some "it makes AA worse" nonsense.

Yes, goals scored is a pretty useful stat for determining how well a player scores goals. G/60 is useful for comparisons, since it is a constant unit of time. As opposed to games played, where obviously 1 GP is not the same in every situation. Technically we should take special teams play into account, but doing so would just shift the data a little further in AA's favor so I didn't bother. 

And finally I looked at all three full seasons. That's the 1.19 > 1.13 I gave you earlier. AA has been better over all, in two of three seasons, and in the most recent. That's why I say he's the better scorer. Because that's what the data says. Maybe next year will be different, maybe not. What I am sure of is that if AA does outscore Mantha next year you will be doing your best to come up with some excuse for it. We're not far from you blaming the organization for ruining him.

Yeah, okay. Quality of competition is not a stat at all... If I asked, which player is faster, Athanasiou or Mantha? Most people would say Athanasiou, would they not? But how do we know Athanasiou is faster when there's no stat for it???

What is Athanasiou's speed? Specifically, not just some vague and unsubstantiated "really fast" nonsense. Like how fast is he at top speed? And on an average shift? Then provide the same data for Mantha...

I don't know about you, but most people know Athanasiou is faster because we watch the games... Most people also know that Mantha plays against tougher competition most nights because we watch the games...

The Larkin, Mantha, Bertuzzi line and top lines in general get matched up against the opposition's best most nights. That's not exactly a secret. That then leaves Athanasiou playing against weaker competition. If you don't think quality of competition effects player output in any way, just because there's not a specific stat I can reference, this conversation is dumber than I thought...

2 hours ago, ely s said:

it looks like you are trying to split hairs. I think we can all agree on the fact that we have  two real good wingers in Mantha and AA and and the end of the day we don´t want trade any of them. They both have qualities the other has not and that looks like a good thing to me.

Buppy is always trying to split hairs, and always thinks he's the smartest person in the room (he's not)...

I think Mantha is the better scorer. Most Wings fans would agree with that. Hell, I'm sure the coach agrees with that, which is why Mantha is constantly on the top line and Athanasiou is constantly on the 2nd / 3rd line.

He's fighting this as if I said Mantha is an elite goal scorer and Athanasiou sucks, when in reality I said that both are very good goal scorers (very comparable, capable of 30+ goals each), but I'd give the *slight* edge to Mantha.

I agree that we shouldn't be in any rush to trade either Mantha or Athanasiou (although I would if the right deal came along), which was my point to begin with...

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45 minutes ago, krsmith17 said:

...Buppy is always trying to split hairs, and always thinks he's the smartest person in the room (he's not)...

I think Mantha is the better scorer. Most Wings fans would agree with that. Hell, I'm sure the coach agrees with that, which is why Mantha is constantly on the top line and Athanasiou is constantly on the 2nd / 3rd line.

He's fighting this as if I said Mantha is an elite goal scorer and Athanasiou sucks, when in reality I said that both are very good goal scorers (very comparable, capable of 30+ goals each), but I'd give the *slight* edge to Mantha.

I agree that we shouldn't be in any rush to trade either Mantha or Athanasiou (although I would if the right deal came along), which was my point to begin with...

I totally agree with your view of Mantha and AA and i can absolutly understand that some people like AA more just because he is the more exciting player. You need both types of players on your team anyway and I´m more than happy we have both. The only thing I am/was not happy about, was the direction it took since yesterday, where it was not just looking for pros and cons, it started to get personnel to a certain extend, which is just unnecessary.

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59 minutes ago, krsmith17 said:

Yeah, okay. Quality of competition is not a stat at all... If I asked, which player is faster, Athanasiou or Mantha? Most people would say Athanasiou, would they not? But how do we know Athanasiou is faster when there's no stat for it???

What is Athanasiou's speed? Specifically, not just some vague and unsubstantiated "really fast" nonsense. Like how fast is he at top speed? And on an average shift? Then provide the same data for Mantha...

I don't know about you, but most people know Athanasiou is faster because we watch the games... Most people also know that Mantha plays against tougher competition most nights because we watch the games...

The Larkin, Mantha, Bertuzzi line and top lines in general get matched up against the opposition's best most nights. That's not exactly a secret. That then leaves Athanasiou playing against weaker competition. If you don't think quality of competition effects player output in any way, just because there's not a specific stat I can reference, this conversation is dumber than I thought...

Buppy is always trying to split hairs, and always thinks he's the smartest person in the room (he's not)...

I think Mantha is the better scorer. Most Wings fans would agree with that. Hell, I'm sure the coach agrees with that, which is why Mantha is constantly on the top line and Athanasiou is constantly on the 2nd / 3rd line.

He's fighting this as if I said Mantha is an elite goal scorer and Athanasiou sucks, when in reality I said that both are very good goal scorers (very comparable, capable of 30+ goals each), but I'd give the *slight* edge to Mantha.

I agree that we shouldn't be in any rush to trade either Mantha or Athanasiou (although I would if the right deal came along), which was my point to begin with...

Blashill coached us to the cellar, so using his line management as a basis for argument is weak.  AA played his best hockey when put with Larkin.  Problem is that Mantha becomes completely invisible without Larkin.  Thats why AA is more valuable and the better scorer.  

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18 minutes ago, Jonas Mahonas said:

Blashill coached us to the cellar, so using his line management as a basis for argument is weak.  AA played his best hockey when put with Larkin.  Problem is that Mantha becomes completely invisible without Larkin.  Thats why AA is more valuable and the better scorer.  

Yeah, it's Blashill's fault... :rolleyes: What about team Canada selection for the World Championship? I'm sure Hockey Canada felt Athanasiou was the better goal scorer / player, but decided to go with the lesser Mantha... He was pretty invisible without Larkin in that tournament wasn't he?

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14 minutes ago, krsmith17 said:

Yeah, it's Blashill's fault... :rolleyes: What about team Canada selection for the World Championship? I'm sure Hockey Canada felt Athanasiou was the better goal scorer / player, but decided to go with the lesser Mantha... He was pretty invisible without Larkin in that tournament wasn't he?

Ha.  That tournament had a lot of players left off.  Stick to NHL.

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8 minutes ago, Jonas Mahonas said:

Ha.  That tournament had a lot of players left off.  Stick to NHL.

Yep. But we're not talking about the rest of the league. We're talking about a handful of Wings forwards.

Mantha and Bertuzzi both got to play in the tournament and AA didn't. Mantha because he has some international pedigree (WJHC)  and is actually better than AA. Bertuzzi because he's a ******* motherf***ing GAMER and is actually better than AA. 

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6 minutes ago, The 91 of Ryans said:

Yep. But we're not talking about the rest of the league. We're talking about a handful of Wings forwards.

Mantha and Bertuzzi both got to play in the tournament and AA didn't. Mantha because he has some international pedigree (WJHC)  and is actually better than AA. Bertuzzi because he's a ******* motherf***ing GAMER and is actually better than AA. 

https://www.nhl.com/redwings/stats

 

Here is the list of leading scorers. 

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