Yeah, because scoring 5 more points and 6 more goals in the next 41 games is really unlikely for Filppula.
It's an overpayment in that the player for whom we would be trading for is not playing as good, right now, as the player we would be trading in payment. This plus a top prospect and a first round pick. Ryan may be a better player than Filppula, but not top prospect and first round pick better, even taking into account age. He could be had for less.
Although I concede this just may be my bias talking. Am I the only one who thinks this?
I was referring more to the fact the Flip has played 5 full seasons prior to this year, and so far his best numbers are 19g, 40p. He's having a great year, and will almost certainly eclipse those numbers. But those first 5 years still happened. Right now he has to be considered a low to mid-tier top 6 forward who's having an outstanding year.
Ryan, in 3 full seasons has not has fewer than 31g, 57p. He's a borderline elite player having a bit of a down year.
Nyquist may be one of our top prospects, but he is not one of the top prospects in the league. He's not a sure bet top-6er in the NHL. Likewise, a late 1st rounder is far from a guarantee.
More importantly, we don't really need Nyquist or that pick, regardless of how good they potentially are. With Pav, Hank, Mule, and Ryan we'd have the makings of an excellent top 6, even if we lose Hudler, Homer, and Bert. We'd still be in good shape cap-wise (assuming no big drop), so we could fill out with a free agent or two, or bump Cleary up. It's doubtful Nyquist would be challenging for a top 6 spot anyway. There should be no shortage of bottom 6 options either, even if we also added Miller/Emmerton (on further review, probably not necessary).
It might turn out to be a win for the Ducks, but why would they move him if they think the best they can do is break even? He's signed for a few more years. They aren't hurting for cap space. He had the holdout, but it doesn't seem he's an issue in the locker room. He's not having a terrible year, nor does he have a history of underperforming. Like most, he can be streaky and may not always give 100%, but he's not a notable slacker or unusually prone to droughts. He's not getting old. He's a ways down the list of team leaders, and hasn't been around that long, so they aren't likely blaming him for the team's struggles...
The only reason to trade him is if they think it improves their team in the near future. If Flip continues his breakout and Gus continues to develop, it would. The pick would be insurance in case one or both falters. An asset for another trade, or to add to their prospect depth. Maybe a 2nd rounder would be good enough, or a prospect lower than Gus, who knows. But I don't think my proposal would hurt us, so might as well make the best offer we can afford. We'd have to outbid several other teams, and convince a team that's struggling to score to give up one of their best young scorers.