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Home stretch math/statistics


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#1 CrimsonFlame

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Posted 16 March 2012 - 07:33 PM

So we as of today (Friday March 16th) are 4 games back, have 11 games to go, and have one game less played than the Blues. We still have a shot, but it's going to be tough.

They need to win 8 games (Really win 7 and get 1 OT Loss,and assuming we win out) or win 5 and tie their last 5 to clinch the division. Or any combination in between. So realistically what will the Blues do in their next ten games? Well they play:

-At Tampa bay (Currently 11th in the east, 5-4-1 Last 10)
-At Anaheim (Currently 12th in the west, 4-5-1 Last 10)
-At Los Angeles (Back to back, currently 11th in the west, 6-4 Last 10)***
-At Phoenix (Currently 7th in the west, 3-5-2 Last 10)***
-Vs Nashville(Currently 5th in the west, 6-2-2 Last 10)
-At Chicago(Currently 6th in the west, 5-4-1 Last 10)
-Vs Columbus(Currently LOL in the west, 4-6 Last 10)
-Vs Detroit(Currently 4th in the west, 3-6-1 Last 10)
-Vs Phoenix(Currently 7th in the west, 3-5-2 Last 10)***
-At Dallas(Currently 3rd in the west, 8-1-1 Last 10)

Anyone stared is in a close playoff fight so we can assume they are going to elevate their game slightly
Average conference ranking: 9.2
Average record in last 10: 4.6 - 4.4 - 1.1

So only four home games and six road games. That can be daunting. Also four games against teams that will probably fighting for their playoff lives when the Blues roll into town. There are three games I can pencil in as for sure wins, TBL Ducks and CBJ. Assuming I am correct and these are in fact wins, than that lowers St. Louis's magic number to 5.5 games (11 points) to clinch.

Now let's look at our remaining schedule to compare:
-At San Jose(Currently 9th in the west, 3-4-3 Last 10)***
-Vs Washington(Currently 8th in the east, 7-2-1 Last 10)***
-At Rangers(Currently 1st in the east, 5-4-1 Last 10)
-Vs Carolina(Currently 13th in the east, 4-3-3 Last 10)
-Vs Columbus(Currently LOL in the west, 4-6 Last 10)
-At Columbus(Currently LOL in the east, 4-6 Last 10)
-Vs Nashville(Currently 5th in the west, 6-2-2 Last 10)
-Vs Florida(Currently 3rd in the east, 6-3-1 Last 10)
-At St. Louis(Currently 1st in the west, 7-2-1 Last 10)
-Vs New Jersey(Currently 6th in the east, 6-3-1 Last 10)
-Vs Chicago(Currently 6th in the west, 5-4-1 Last 10)

Average conference rank: 7.5
Average record in last 10: 5.2 - 3.6 - 1.4

So as you can see, not only are we four games back but we also have a harder schedule to play through. The only real bonus we have over St. Louis is the fact that seven out of our remaining eleven are at home. Our home and road records are very similar to theirs. The only major difference is they have slightly more ties and slightly less losses on the road than we do. I would only feel confident penciling in three wins, CBJ x2 and Carolina. And since I would assume that we both would win these three automatically, we are right back where we started just with significantly less time to make up the point deficit.

So what do you guys think. Is it realistic to say we still have a shot given the data?

#2 GMRwings1983

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Posted 16 March 2012 - 08:43 PM

The Blues have been too good and the Wings have been too bad to think we can still win the division.

Detroit needs to worry about staying ahead of Nashivlle for 4th. At the same time, if we dropped to 6th and played Dallas in the first round, it wouldn't be the worst thing in the world.

But the division has slipped away with this losing stretch.
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#3 Majsheppard

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Posted 16 March 2012 - 08:58 PM

Other thread. 83.3% chance of playing nashville.
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Tootoo does NOT belong on this team. He is classless and I would rather see the Wings be bad than classless. I feel the same way about Bertuzzi as well, but he at least CAN make the team better. With Tootoo the team becomes worse and in danger of being classless. Would you have liked Claude on the team? Or Roy? No. So why would you be okay with that POS.

This thread has been closed due to emotions being higher than people's ability to read, interpret, and properly respond to simple posts.

#4 Barrie

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Posted 16 March 2012 - 11:06 PM

The Blues have been too good and the Wings have been too bad to think we can still win the division.

Detroit needs to worry about staying ahead of Nashivlle for 4th. At the same time, if we dropped to 6th and played Dallas in the first round, it wouldn't be the worst thing in the world.

But the division has slipped away with this losing stretch.

There's no chance at the Division. If I was betting, I'd say we'll hold on to 4th with Datsyuk back on Saturday, and Lidstrom eventually back before the playoffs. We're due to go on a run here and end the season strong.

However, I too don't think that finishing 5th or 6th isn't that big a deal. If we finish 5th, we'll still play Nashville first round, and the only difference is, one more road game. 4 home games, or 3, we can beat Nashville. When you start a series on the road, all you need to do is win one of the first two games and you have home ice. Also after the 1st round, there isn't a difference between the 4th and 5th seeds.

Also finishing 6th, but I highly doubt that'll happen, means we play Dallas 1st round.
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#5 toby91_ca

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Posted 17 March 2012 - 09:39 AM

First time I've ever heard/seen someone suggest "x" games behind when referring to hockey.

To answer the question though, it is mathematically possible to catch St. Louis, but with only 11 games to go and being behind by 7 points, it's highly unlikely.

#6 rrasco

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Posted 17 March 2012 - 11:17 AM

Also finishing 6th, but I highly doubt that'll happen, means we play Dallas 1st round.


I wouldn't mind matching up against Dallas. We've played well against them this year and it would mean I get to go to at least one playoff game.

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#7 CrimsonFlame

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Posted 17 March 2012 - 01:12 PM

First time I've ever heard/seen someone suggest "x" games behind when referring to hockey.

To answer the question though, it is mathematically possible to catch St. Louis, but with only 11 games to go and being behind by 7 points, it's highly unlikely.


I figured that would make it simpler than saying 11 games and 7 points because the OT loss can be a big variable.

#8 SouthernWingsFan

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Posted 17 March 2012 - 01:49 PM

I wouldn't mind matching up against Dallas. We've played well against them this year and it would mean I get to go to at least one playoff game.

Me either.

Only 8-hour drive for me to Dallas so... :P (nah, wouldn't be able to go, I'm all but going up to there to the Metroplex in late September/early October, but I digress)

We ave indeed played well against them this year but I'm not one that never has been one to "wish" matches or seeds to get to a specific matchup. Not because I fear or disrespect teams, I don't fear or disrespect anybody. Just win as much as you can is simply my thoughts regarding this, and this season with the Wings being so dominant at home when healthy it is pretty important this year. Still holding out hope for #1/#2 but not holding my breath obviously with this recent slide. #4 would be find, guaranteed home ice for at least one round. And yes I get that the last two SCF game 7s have been won on the road.

#9 jroc86

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Posted 17 March 2012 - 04:14 PM

Unless we win a couple in a row and the Blues drop a couple in a row its not worth thinking about ... yet.

#10 atodaso

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Posted 17 March 2012 - 05:12 PM

I prefer to look at it this way: We have one game in hand; if we win that game, we are 5 points behind. We also have one game left against St. Louis; if we win that game we are 3 points behind. That's 9 games left for both teams and just three points behind. Not exactly impossible, as long as the Wings win 7 or 8 of those 9 games.

Also, why is everyone talking about playing Dallas if we drop to the #6 seed? Dallas will not win the Pacific.

#11 VM1138

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Posted 18 March 2012 - 08:06 AM

There's no chance at the Division. If I was betting, I'd say we'll hold on to 4th with Datsyuk back on Saturday, and Lidstrom eventually back before the playoffs. We're due to go on a run here and end the season strong.

However, I too don't think that finishing 5th or 6th isn't that big a deal. If we finish 5th, we'll still play Nashville first round, and the only difference is, one more road game. 4 home games, or 3, we can beat Nashville. When you start a series on the road, all you need to do is win one of the first two games and you have home ice. Also after the 1st round, there isn't a difference between the 4th and 5th seeds.

Also finishing 6th, but I highly doubt that'll happen, means we play Dallas 1st round.


Our road record would beg to differ. If we don't finish in 4th or higher the Wings are in serious trouble come playoff time.
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#12 Nightfall

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Posted 19 March 2012 - 09:40 AM

I say don't worry about winning the division. Get healthy, work on the special teams, and get ready for a playoff run.
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#13 rrasco

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Posted 19 March 2012 - 09:47 AM

Also, why is everyone talking about playing Dallas if we drop to the #6 seed? Dallas will not win the Pacific.


I have not paid attention to match ups yet, I was just talking about a what-if merely because it was already mentioned and I like to watch the Wings play, which I get to do in Dallas more often than in Detroit. It's so fun stirring up those Stars fans.

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#14 TxBlue

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Posted 19 March 2012 - 07:33 PM

So much for the game in hand, unless you really think they're coming back against Wash. Time to give up on division and hope to hold on to 5th place.

#15 Red Crazy

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Posted 19 March 2012 - 07:41 PM

Need to address the crappy play so they don't sink farther down. Winning the division will not happen.

#16 atodaso

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Posted 24 March 2012 - 08:40 PM

And so it begins.....

#17 CrimsonFlame

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Posted 25 March 2012 - 11:14 AM

Let's update this with some more relevant information.

Blue are 6 points up now and we both have seven games to go. So it's still possible to win the division! The magic number is now 4.5, meaning they blues need 4 wins and an OT to clinch the division if we were to win out. Or they need us to lose 4 games and OT 1. Or any combination in between.


I'll update this later after the game tonight because it will make it a lot simpler since Chicago and Nashville play each other tonight.

#18 CrimsonFlame

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Posted 26 March 2012 - 12:37 AM

Alright Nashville decided to absolute destroy Chitown tonight. That leaves us one point behind the preds for 4th with seven to go and one game in hand. Their last six:

-At St. Louis (1st place, 6-2-2)
-At Detroit (5th place, 2-6-2)
-Vs Chicago (6th place, 7-2-1, back to back)
-Vs Minnesota (13th place, 3-7)
-Vs Dallas (3rd place, 7-3)***
-At Colorado (10th place, 6-2-2)***

Even 3/3 split Home and away.
Average conference rank: 6.3
Average record in last ten: 5.1 - 3.7 - 1.2
And as before, triple stars means the team is fighting for a fringe playoff spot so expect them to elevate their game.

So their schedule is moderately difficult to close it out. Now Let's take a look at Chitown's. Just for the record they are 3 points back and we have a game in hand.

-At New Jersey (6th place in the east, 5-4-1)
-Vs St. Louis (1st place, 6-2-2)
-At Nashville (4th place, 6-3-1)
-Vs Minnesota (13th place, 3-7, Back to back)
-At Minnesota (13th place, 3-7)
-At Detroit (5th place, 2-6-2)

4/2 Home vs Away so there's a slight disadvantage for them.
Average conference ranking: 7
Average record in last ten: 4.2 - 4.8 - 1

So looking at the raw data is looks like the hawks may actually have a pretty easy stretch coming in, but Minnesota really weighs those averages down. Also the home/away split is significant since Chicago is nearly as bad on the road as we are! Considering that if we exclude the Wild games their schedule is pretty damn hard, and the fact that they are a game and a half back with one less to play, I don't see the Hawks going anywhere beyond sixth realistically

And for comparison let's look at our last seven:

-Vs Columbus(15th place, 4-6)
-At Columbus(15th place, 4-6)
-Vs Nashville(4th place, 6-3-1)
-Vs Florida(3rd place in the east, 5-2-3)
-At St. Louis(1st place, 6-2-2)
-Vs New Jersey(6th place in the east, 5-4-1)
-Vs Chicago(6th place, 7-2-1)

5/2 Home vs Away
Average conference rank: 7.1
Average record last ten: 5.3 - 3.6 - 1.1


So looking at the numbers shows that our remaining schedule is roughly as difficult as the preds. At least based on the last ten averages. Columbus's rank weighs down the conference record average. What should really help us is the fact that 5 out of 7 of our remaining games are at home and we are much better at home than on the road.

My Final predictions central division are as follows:

St. Louis finishes 3-1-2, in first place, and with 111 points
Nashville finishes 3-1-2 in, fourth place, with 103 points since I think they have the tie breaker
Detroit finishes 3-2-2, in fifth place, with 103 points
Chicago finishes 2-2-2, in sixth place with 98 points

And also just for fun, St. Louis' magic number is now down to 3.5 games. 3 wins and an OT tie or 4 losses from us and we are eliminated from the running for first place.

Anyone else have any thoughts?

#19 atodaso

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Posted 26 March 2012 - 01:26 AM

I'll probably sound like a homer right now but...

I predict the Wings win the rest of their games. They are due for a long winning streak after the garbage that was this month's hockey. If they manage to accomplish this it would give them another 14 points for a total of 109. But that still means the Blues can win just 3 more games and still win the division. So, it's going to be tough to win the division but I don't think the Preds will be any trouble for the 4th spot. And if the Wings keep up the crapfest then it frankly doesn't matter where they finish in the West because we're then most likely looking at another early round exit.

#20 Z Winged Dangler

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Posted 26 March 2012 - 01:01 PM

So we as of today (Friday March 16th) are 4 games back, have 11 games to go, and have one game less played than the Blues. We still have a shot, but it's going to be tough.

They need to win 8 games (Really win 7 and get 1 OT Loss,and assuming we win out) or win 5 and tie their last 5 to clinch the division. Or any combination in between. So realistically what will the Blues do in their next ten games? Well they play:

-At Tampa bay (Currently 11th in the east, 5-4-1 Last 10)
-At Anaheim (Currently 12th in the west, 4-5-1 Last 10)
-At Los Angeles (Back to back, currently 11th in the west, 6-4 Last 10)***
-At Phoenix (Currently 7th in the west, 3-5-2 Last 10)***
-Vs Nashville(Currently 5th in the west, 6-2-2 Last 10)
-At Chicago(Currently 6th in the west, 5-4-1 Last 10)
-Vs Columbus(Currently LOL in the west, 4-6 Last 10)-Vs Detroit(Currently 4th in the west, 3-6-1 Last 10)
-Vs Phoenix(Currently 7th in the west, 3-5-2 Last 10)***
-At Dallas(Currently 3rd in the west, 8-1-1 Last 10)

Anyone stared is in a close playoff fight so we can assume they are going to elevate their game slightly
Average conference ranking: 9.2
Average record in last 10: 4.6 - 4.4 - 1.1

So only four home games and six road games. That can be daunting. Also four games against teams that will probably fighting for their playoff lives when the Blues roll into town. There are three games I can pencil in as for sure wins, TBL Ducks and CBJ. Assuming I am correct and these are in fact wins, than that lowers St. Louis's magic number to 5.5 games (11 points) to clinch.

Now let's look at our remaining schedule to compare:
-At San Jose(Currently 9th in the west, 3-4-3 Last 10)***
-Vs Washington(Currently 8th in the east, 7-2-1 Last 10)***
-At Rangers(Currently 1st in the east, 5-4-1 Last 10)
-Vs Carolina(Currently 13th in the east, 4-3-3 Last 10)
-Vs Columbus(Currently LOL in the west, 4-6 Last 10)
-At Columbus(Currently LOL in the east, 4-6 Last 10)
-Vs Nashville(Currently 5th in the west, 6-2-2 Last 10)
-Vs Florida(Currently 3rd in the east, 6-3-1 Last 10)
-At St. Louis(Currently 1st in the west, 7-2-1 Last 10)
-Vs New Jersey(Currently 6th in the east, 6-3-1 Last 10)
-Vs Chicago(Currently 6th in the west, 5-4-1 Last 10)

Average conference rank: 7.5
Average record in last 10: 5.2 - 3.6 - 1.4

So as you can see, not only are we four games back but we also have a harder schedule to play through. The only real bonus we have over St. Louis is the fact that seven out of our remaining eleven are at home. Our home and road records are very similar to theirs. The only major difference is they have slightly more ties and slightly less losses on the road than we do. I would only feel confident penciling in three wins, CBJ x2 and Carolina. And since I would assume that we both would win these three automatically, we are right back where we started just with significantly less time to make up the point deficit.

So what do you guys think. Is it realistic to say we still have a shot given the data?

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As much as i'd like to see the Wings catch the Blues, they will have to win the rest of their games cause the Blues are rippin it up. Wings will win the home and home with Columbus and then beat the Preds and they will finish 4th 6 points ahead of the Preds.

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