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The truth of our decline.


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#61 Rivalred

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Posted 21 May 2012 - 09:17 AM

A sandwich sounds good right about now, hold the s*** though
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#62 Johnz96

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Posted 21 May 2012 - 09:40 AM

Lets put things in perspective shall we?

Look at the Wings in the last 21 years. They have made the playoffs, and while they haven't been cup favorites every year, I believe the new NHL is ushering in a new era. You have a number 8 seeded LA Kings team that has lost just 2 games in the playoffs this season. It doesn't matter what seed you are. There is a new form of parity in the NHL. The Red Wings have won 4 cups in the last 15 years. That alone is a huge accomplishment. To expect that kind of success in the next 15 years is really not aligned with reality.

The Red Wings are showing no sign of decline. They hit 100 points last season. They have some strong kids in the AHL. Most importantly though, the ownership has spent a lot of money to bring in free agents, make some trades, and worked to keep this team strong. To be honest, I really don't understand how you think that the Wings are "declining". People probably thought that when Shanny and Fedorov left. Same when Yzerman retired. Yet, this team has continued to win and make the playoffs as a result.

Now, to expect the Wings to win the cup every year is ludicrous. There can only be one cup winner, and even in 2007 when we signed Dallas Drake, not many thought we were a lock to win the cup. Many people here s*** on the Dallas Drake signing at the time, and yet the Wings were the best team in the NHL and won the cup that year. Then, the next year they were one win away from the cup when everyone thought they were a lock. The Wings management have put the team in a position to win in the regular season, and then when the playoffs roll around, if they are healthy and get some puck luck they will have a shot at that as well. Yet, this year we got hit with some key injuries and the puck luck was not on our side.

To be honest, the people who are proclaiming the Wings are on the decline have not looked at the bigger picture here. If the Wings were not spending money, then I would agree. If the Wings were depleting their kids in the minors, then I would agree. If the Wings were not willing to bid for free agents, then I would agree. Every sign points to a great season next season. The Wings are going to do what it takes to hit that 100 point mark once again next season, and then when the playoffs hit, all bets are off. Your team has a 1 in 16 shot to win the cup at that point.

I would say if you think the Wings are on the decline now, just wait until the team is sold or handed over to a group of people who only care about making a profit. I mean, why spend $65 million when a new group will only spend $45-$50. Wings fans will continue to buy tickets, and maybe they will make the playoffs. The decline of this team will hit when management decides not to spend money on prominent free agents and just approaches this team from a pure "making money" perspective.

Until then, as a fan, I say hang on and enjoy the ride. No other team in the history of the league has had this level of success that the Wings have had. The fans have become spoiled, and that doesn't surprise me. The "cup or bust" attitude is something I believe in as well. Why put a team out there that isn't going to compete for the cup? The thing is that there are 20 other teams doing the same thing, and there can only be one cup winner with all the parity in the league. Keep your expectations realistic.


Great post

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#63 Johnz96

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Posted 21 May 2012 - 09:47 AM

Made this handy little spread sheet. it covers the 5 of our top 6 forwards that are signed for next season. has the names, ages, and 3 stats for each year from 2008 through 2012. Those stats are: GP=games played, PTS=points, and shts=shoots on goal. Black numbers are no change or improved, red numbers are declines.
Name----Age--------------------2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
--------------------------------GP PTS shts GP PTS shts GP PTS shts GP PTS shts GP PTS shts

Zetterberg--32-------------75 92 358 77 73 309 74 70 309 80 80 306 82 69 267

Datsyk----34---------------- 82 97 264 81 97 248 80 70 203 56 59 137 70 67 164

Franzen----33---------------72 38 199 71 59 246 27 21 91 76 55 248 77 56 211

Burtuzzi----37---------------68 40 121 66 44 127 82 44 216 81 45 138 71 38 118

Cleary---34------------------63 42 177 74 40 163 64 34 140 68 46 192 75 33 199

Now for some follow up. Of the 15 numbers for each player, dat has 9 reds. meaning he is declinging just about every year, in just about every catagory. it would be worse but his numbers this year are improved over 2011 when he was hurt. But his 2012 numbers are worse than his 2010 numbers. Second in red numbers is Z. he has 7 out of 15 in red. Cleary has 6 out 15 in red. Burt also has 6 out of 15 in red. franzen has declined the fewest times. Only 5 red numbers. The number that stands out to me the most, is dat's decline in shots. In 2008 he took 264 shots. Then followed by 248, 203, 137, and finally 164 this past year. Granted he played 12 fewer games, but he had 103 fewer shots! That is a 38% drop!

None of us want to se a bad RW team. We all want to win Cups every year. But we also have to face facts. The fact is we need to find our next pair of great forwards that can lead us for the next 10 years. We started this run with Yzerman and federov, then continued it with dat and Z. No where in our organization do we have 2 guys that are potential 80 point per year guys. This is Holland's big challenge. Do we trade? Sign FA's? move up in the draft somewhere?
My personnel opinion is they need to be C's. A wing by himself can't do it. A good sniper-like parise is, can't score if no one can get him the puck. One last thing. Please understand the difference between good and great. dat and Z are still good players. They are not great players anymore. They will continue to work hard, provide leadership, and score 60 to 75 points for a few more years. But they are not guys that can carry a team anymore. help carry yes, but we have to find the next pair to do the heavy lifting.


Chart was fixed, loaded poorly.....


Everyone wants to win Cups every year but only 1 team wins it. After Yzerman retired and all those superstars were gone nobody thought we had anyone in our organization that are potential 80 point per year guys then and most thought that our success had finally run it's course and that parity had caught up to us
The reds in your stats would have been exceeded by the 2001-2 team

Edited by Johnz96, 21 May 2012 - 10:11 AM.


#64 number9

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Posted 21 May 2012 - 09:50 AM

The s*** sandwich being the notion that we're going to sign these FA's because there's no way they could possibly sign elsewhere and then all of our A++ prospects who are clearly the next Datsyuk's and Zetterberg's and Lidstrom's, will come in here and everything will be just fine. I don't buy into it.


Well that's a little extreme....we have a lot of money to spend and in the players poll the players said the wings are the franchise they'd most like to play for....so we could very well get a Parise or a Suter this year but no im definitely not banking on it or expecting it at all. And if we don't get any top FA's and just bolster the bottom 6 or something we will still be VERY competitive if not more competitive than last year.

And no we don't we have any RNH's or Landeskogs on our farm but we still have a very surprising amount of really good young players there....more than most teams. And I dont know how many times i got to say this but you dont need Lidstroms and Datsyuks to win cups.....it's a team sport....half the reason Lidstrom and Datsyuk have been as good as they have is because theyve had a fantastic team around them their entire careers.....they owe just as much to the team as the team owes to them. We made them the allstars they are.

#65 rrasco

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Posted 21 May 2012 - 09:54 AM

A sandwich sounds good right about now, hold the s*** though


One sandwich coming up, holding the s***.

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#66 Johnz96

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Posted 21 May 2012 - 09:57 AM

Shots until it makes sense?


lol

#67 Johnz96

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Posted 21 May 2012 - 10:04 AM

Actually, now that I understand what you where trying to say, it proves my point. If dat was at 125% scoring in 2008 and is at 95% scoring in 2012, that is a 30% DECLINE! Not to mention he is playing fewer and fewer games each year. In 08 and 09 Dat had 97 points. he played 82 games in 08 and 81 games in 09. Now he is down to the mid and lower 70's in games played. So thanks for making my point.


It's funny that Yzerman, Fedorov had a much bigger decline and never won Cups until after they were washed up in comparison to their earlier stats

#68 LeftWinger

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Posted 21 May 2012 - 11:23 AM

It's funny that Yzerman, Fedorov had a much bigger decline and never won Cups until after they were washed up in comparison to their earlier stats

I wouldn't call them washed up, sure Steve wasn't the O machine he was in the 80's, and Fedorov slowed a bit, but the year they won the first Cup they were coming off prior year scoring of 95pts (Yzerman) and 107pts (Fedorov) respectively...but ya compared to earlier stats, they were more down to Earth during the 3 Cup run... Differnce is, those late 90's early 00's teams had balanced scoring that took a lot of scoring away from Yzerman/Fedorov, this team doesn't have that as much, so as Z and D decline, so does the team...They need to address this sooner than later, hopefully this off season! Speaking of secondary scoring, I see Franzen had 9 points in 7 games in the Worlds, that sure wold be nice to get him to give that much when he plays for the Red Wings.... 1.28 PPG would turn a lot of his naysayers around!

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#69 Dabura

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Posted 21 May 2012 - 11:55 AM

Hang the DJ, hang the DJ, hang the DJ

Edited by Dabura, 21 May 2012 - 11:59 AM.

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#70 Johnz96

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Posted 21 May 2012 - 12:19 PM

I wouldn't call them washed up, sure Steve wasn't the O machine he was in the 80's, and Fedorov slowed a bit, but the year they won the first Cup they were coming off prior year scoring of 95pts (Yzerman) and 107pts (Fedorov) respectively...but ya compared to earlier stats, they were more down to Earth during the 3 Cup run... Differnce is, those late 90's early 00's teams had balanced scoring that took a lot of scoring away from Yzerman/Fedorov, this team doesn't have that as much, so as Z and D decline, so does the team...They need to address this sooner than later, hopefully this off season! Speaking of secondary scoring, I see Franzen had 9 points in 7 games in the Worlds, that sure wold be nice to get him to give that much when he plays for the Red Wings.... 1.28 PPG would turn a lot of his naysayers around!


I was being sarcastic calling Yzerman and Fedorov "washed up", they were not in decline, they were as good as ever if not better and so are Z and Dats now. Stats only tell part of the story
More than half the players Franzen played against in the WHC are not good enough to make it in the NHL

#71 Richdg

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Posted 21 May 2012 - 12:45 PM

I wouldn't call them washed up, sure Steve wasn't the O machine he was in the 80's, and Fedorov slowed a bit, but the year they won the first Cup they were coming off prior year scoring of 95pts (Yzerman) and 107pts (Fedorov) respectively...but ya compared to earlier stats, they were more down to Earth during the 3 Cup run... Differnce is, those late 90's early 00's teams had balanced scoring that took a lot of scoring away from Yzerman/Fedorov, this team doesn't have that as much, so as Z and D decline, so does the team...They need to address this sooner than later, hopefully this off season! Speaking of secondary scoring, I see Franzen had 9 points in 7 games in the Worlds, that sure wold be nice to get him to give that much when he plays for the Red Wings.... 1.28 PPG would turn a lot of his naysayers around!



You can't compare teams from the pre-cap era to now. just doesn't work. In 97-02 we have basicly 3 top lines and the best checking line in the game. heck even our checking line was good for 60 goals many years. In todays game a team only has money for 3 maybe 4 premium offensive talents. Those guys then have to produce. Also, we started winning Cups when Bowman finally got Stevie and Sergi to play D. They couldn't spend all their time and energy strictly on scoring. But even they were in decline. every player goes through it at some point. Decline is not an overnight thing. For most players, they start dropping 5-7 points per year, and do so over many years. it is rare-unless injured, that a player goes for an 80 point per year guy to a 40 point per year guy in 1 season. datsyuk is a classic example. In 08 and 09 he scored 97 points each year. Now he is in the low 70's. That averages out to 5-7 points each season.

It is also important to note the ages of players when talking about production. Most athletes have their best seasons between 27-32 years of age. This is true in all sports. Men reach their physical peaks around 27, hold at that level for a few years, then begin the long slow graduale decline. Going back to datsyuk. In 08 and 09 he put up 97 points each season. he was 29 and 30 those 2 years. Filppula had his best season this past year-he is now 28. Zetterberg had his best season in 08-he was 27 and his second best season in '11 when he was 31. Just staying with teams in detroit, why are many lions fans getting excited? They finally have talent, and that talent is just coming up on the prime years. the Pistons have some good young talent, but those players are still 2-3 years from their peaks, which is part of why they are struggling. Tigers fans are all pissed off, because they are playing poorly, with their stars all in their late 20's. But most also understand that by the end of the year JV-29, cabby-28, and prince-28 will all have MVP type numbers. You can't fall into the trap of looking at Lidstrom and expect that for everyone. he is one of those rare freaks of nature that can play forever at a high level. TBH, I would not be shocked to see Lidstrom in 2 more Olympic games. yes that would make him almsot 50 by that time. he could easily go home, play 20 games in the SEL, then be ready for a 12 game tourney.

#72 sibiriak

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Posted 21 May 2012 - 02:12 PM

A little illustration on what the stats can and can not do.
Playing for Russia in the World Hockey championship, that just ended, Pavel Datsyuk scored 3 pts in the 7 round-robin games. So he must be old and washed up, right?
But wait, in the next 3 single elimination games, when the intensity and the competition level rise, he scored 4 points in those 3 games.
Why the rebirth? Well, it could have something to do with the fact that he played on a line with Kuznetsov and Kulemin/Shirokov at first, and with Ovechkin and Semin for the 3 playoff games. And let me tell you, that line was dominant.
So when comparing stats for various years, one must take into account who else was on the ice. Otherwise, one might think that Pittsburgh's Kunitz (61 pts) was as good as, say, Zetterberg(69 pts), since he got comparable stats. Of course that would ignore the fact that he was playing on the line with Malkin.

Edited by sibiriak, 21 May 2012 - 02:14 PM.


#73 Hatethedrake!

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Posted 21 May 2012 - 02:21 PM

A little illustration on what the stats can and can not do.
Playing for Russia in the World Hockey championship, that just ended, Pavel Datsyuk scored 3 pts in the 7 round-robin games. So he must be old and washed up, right?
But wait, in the next 3 single elimination games, when the intensity and the competition level rise, he scored 4 points in those 3 games.
Why the rebirth? Well, it could have something to do with the fact that he played on a line with Kuznetsov and Kulemin/Shirokov at first, and with Ovechkin and Semin for the 3 playoff games. And let me tell you, that line was dominant.
So when comparing stats for various years, one must take into account who else was on the ice. Otherwise, one might think that Pittsburgh's Kunitz (61 pts) was as good as, say, Zetterberg(69 pts), since he got comparable stats. Of course that would ignore the fact that he was playing on the line with Malkin.


Kenny was at the WC and must have seen how good this line was. So he may value Semin even more now. have always thought Semin would fit with Datsyuk like a glove. But then there is the whole attitude thing. I say if Parise doesn`t come here then Semin is a good Plan B.
Jordan Tootoo will wreck shop.

We need someone like Parise that can penetrate the box.-blueadams

#74 Richdg

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Posted 21 May 2012 - 02:24 PM

A little illustration on what the stats can and can not do.
Playing for Russia in the World Hockey championship, that just ended, Pavel Datsyuk scored 3 pts in the 7 round-robin games. So he must be old and washed up, right?
But wait, in the next 3 single elimination games, when the intensity and the competition level rise, he scored 4 points in those 3 games.
Why the rebirth? Well, it could have something to do with the fact that he played on a line with Kuznetsov and Kulemin/Shirokov at first, and with Ovechkin and Semin for the 3 playoff games. And let me tell you, that line was dominant.
So when comparing stats for various years, one must take into account who else was on the ice. Otherwise, one might think that Pittsburgh's Kunitz (61 pts) was as good as, say, Zetterberg(69 pts), since he got comparable stats. Of course that would ignore the fact that he was playing on the line with Malkin.



I understand that points are just one item to look at. That is why i also talk about declining games played, and declining shots. Dat has gone from 264 shots in 08 to 164 shots in 2012. Alos keep in mind, that prior to this year, Z and Dat played the majority of the time on the same line. So that is even more troubling. Our top 2 players, playing on the same line, and both are dropping off.
As for what is happening at the WC, I really don't care. It means nothing. Different ice-helpfull to Euro players, many of the top US and canadian players not there, and most of the euro teams are made up of guys not able to play in the NHL. Its akin to the RW beating the griffins.

#75 sibiriak

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Posted 21 May 2012 - 02:28 PM

Kenny was at the WC and must have seen how good this line was. So he may value Semin even more now. have always thought Semin would fit with Datsyuk like a glove. But then there is the whole attitude thing. I say if Parise doesn`t come here then Semin is a good Plan B.

I am probably biased, but I think that the attitude thing is overblown. Semin probably will take time off during the regular season, no matter what you do to him, but in this year playoffs he really fought hard for the Caps. He was skating hard, blocking shots, which I don't recall him doing before.
I think he finally matured and wants to win.

#76 Hatethedrake!

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Posted 21 May 2012 - 02:37 PM

I am probably biased, but I think that the attitude thing is overblown. Semin probably will take time off during the regular season, no matter what you do to him, but in this year playoffs he really fought hard for the Caps. He was skating hard, blocking shots, which I don't recall him doing before.
I think he finally matured and wants to win.


I do think Russian players take too much heat for their perceived attitude problems. I recall Fedorov taking a beating amongst the Wings fans. They turned the whole SAM JONES comment into something very ugly and unfair. Thing is that he was right in what he said. Datsyuk does not get enough credit for the amazing player he is. All Red Wings fans know how great he is. But to the rest of the NHL he is very underrated. Well the players on the other teams, like Parise, respect him.

I am not saying Semin is an angel and I do think he deserves some of the criticism thrown his way. But he can`t be the evil villian he has been portrayed. If given the choice between talented headcase and non talented good guy, I will roll the dice on the headcase. You can`t teach talent which is what Semin has. You can teach the headcase to be better. Well most of the time. I could see Semin taking less to come here even with his agent being Marc Gandler. Talk about a headcase.
Jordan Tootoo will wreck shop.

We need someone like Parise that can penetrate the box.-blueadams

#77 sibiriak

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Posted 21 May 2012 - 02:44 PM

I understand that points are just one item to look at. That is why i also talk about declining games played, and declining shots. Dat has gone from 264 shots in 08 to 164 shots in 2012. Alos keep in mind, that prior to this year, Z and Dat played the majority of the time on the same line. So that is even more troubling. Our top 2 players, playing on the same line, and both are dropping off.
As for what is happening at the WC, I really don't care. It means nothing. Different ice-helpfull to Euro players, many of the top US and canadian players not there, and most of the euro teams are made up of guys not able to play in the NHL. Its akin to the RW beating the griffins.

Datsyuk and Zetterberg haven't played together much, other than on PP, last season either. If you adjust your number to PPG format, you'll see the correlation.

Zetterberg does have a chronic back issue, that may limit his GP in the future. How much - we don't know. Datsyuk does not have any lingering health issues I know of. He is only 33 and has at least 2-3 more seasons at near peak physical condition.

Datsyuk played the last 3 games in the World Hockey Championship on the same ice and under the same rules, and against the same or better opponents as he played in the first 7. So his point production increased for one reason only - new and better linemates. It was as clear an experiment as one can ask for.

All-NHL teams USA and Canada went home after losing in the quarterfinals to the "guys not able to play in the NHL". Does that mean that the Red Wings would also lose to the Griffins? :P

Edited by sibiriak, 21 May 2012 - 02:59 PM.


#78 Johnz96

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Posted 21 May 2012 - 02:59 PM

Datsyuk and Zetterberg haven't played together much, other than on PP, last season either. If you adjust your number to PPG format, you'll see the correlation.

Zetterberg does have a chronic back issue, that may limit his GP in the future. How much - we don't know. Datsyuk does not have any lingering health issues I know of. He is only 33 and has at least 2-3 more seasons at near peak physical condition.

Datsyuk played the last 3 games in the World Hockey Championship on the same ice and under the same rules, and against the same or better opponents as he played in the first 7. So his point produstion increased for one reason only - new and better linemates. It was as clear an experiment as one can ask for.

All-NHL teams USA and Canada went home after losing in the quarterfinals to the "guys not able to play in the NHL". Does that mean that the Red Wings would also lose to the Griffins? :P


Those teams still had some NHLers and yes if the Wings played the Griffs regularly, the Griffs would win on occasion. The over-sized goalie equipment gives weaker teams an even much better chance of winning than they use to have before Bettman became commissioner but even then the better team didn't win all the time.

#79 sibiriak

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Posted 21 May 2012 - 03:13 PM

Those teams still had some NHLers and yes if the Wings played the Griffs regularly, the Griffs would win on occasion. The over-sized goalie equipment gives weaker teams an even much better chance of winning than they use to have before Bettman became commissioner but even then the better team didn't win all the time.

Griffins also have some NHL-experienced players, and neither Canada nor USA went very far in the Worlds for the last 3 years. Canada hasn't won since 2007 and USA hasn't medaled since 2004.
So by your logic, the Wings would lose to the Griffins, and not occasionally, but as a rule.

And where did the goalie equipment issue come from? The IIHF has the same standards as NHL does. And the goalies there use the same equipment they normally use, NHL-regulation most of them.

#80 Johnz96

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Posted 21 May 2012 - 03:39 PM

Griffins also have some NHL-experienced players, and neither Canada nor USA went very far in the Worlds for the last 3 years. Canada hasn't won since 2007 and USA hasn't medaled since 2004.
So by your logic, the Wings would lose to the Griffins, and not occasionally, but as a rule.

And where did the goalie equipment issue come from? The IIHF has the same standards as NHL does. And the goalies there use the same equipment they normally use, NHL-regulation most of them.


I'm just saying better teams are more likely to lose games with less scoring and bigger goalie equipment internationally or in the NHL.
Anybody paying in the AHL regardless of NHL experience weren't deemed good enough to make their respective teams
The best veteran North Americans don't participate in the tournament





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