74 replies to this topic

[Pucks]

He's not A complete moron, he's going to July 1st.

[Doc Holliday]

Now this begs the question: Does the exec just believe he will make the trade, or is there some actual information that would imply he will make the trade? Because if it is the former, then this is purely speculation.

[amato]

You wouldn't give up a borderline NHLer for first dibs on the top FA on the market?

Nope. As people have said, he knows we want him.. He has to. So if he's interested in coming here he'll wait to talk to us. I just wouldn't trade a player for rights. Maybe that 7th we get if Stuart signs with San Jose but a player, nope.

[ogreslayer]

I doubt Kenny even tlbothers Yzerman with that.
For the record, I don't think there's a snowball's chance Kenny gets his rights out of Nashville, but I think it would cost minimum of a 3rd plus a medium/low prospect like Landon Ferraro.

If I were Kenny, I would do a 3rd & Ferraro without hesitation given Landon's relative lack of development so far.

One other thing to keep in mind, while nobody in the organ-i-zation can say publicly that they're going after Suter without being slapped by the NHL, there's nothing that says Suter's agent can't call up Kenny & talk theoreticals i.e. "So if Ryan were interested in X amount of years for Y amount of money, would you be interested?" If something like that were to happen, Suter could go to Poile to say "Listen, I'm leaning on signing with Detroit on the 1st. If you want something in return, you need to trade my rights to them before". Would Poile still try to hold the Wings over a barrel in that type of scenario? Probably, but the urgency to get something out of the situation would temper that a bit.

Edited by ogreslayer, 13 June 2012 - 06:16 AM.

[Nightfall]

If I were Kenny, I would do a 3rd & Ferraro without hesitation given Landon's relative lack of development so far.

I just don't understand this.

Why would anyone trade a 3rd round pick plus another player just for the rights to talk to someone before July 1st? There is no guarantee that they will be signed. A more logical thing would be a scrub player like the one we got from San Jose, and then a 7th round pick if we sign the player.

[ogreslayer]

I just don't understand this.

Why would anyone trade a 3rd round pick plus another player just for the rights to talk to someone before July 1st? There is no guarantee that they will be signed. A more logical thing would be a scrub player like the one we got from San Jose, and then a 7th round pick if we sign the player.

You kind of hit it in the last part of your comment. Because you can make either the pick and/or the player conditional on signing. Like in the Stuart rights trade, the pick only changes hands if Stuart signs with SJ. If not, the best the Wings did was get a player that will be a depth add to GR.

As far as that package for Suter, given that C'bus flipped a 5th rounder to Montreal for the rights to Wisniewski last year, I think a 3rd for Suter is more than fair. As to Ferraro, given his last 2 sub-par years in juniors & an underwhelming run in GR so far, I would have absolutely no problem seeing him flipped to Nashville as compensation if the Wings sign Suter early. At this point, I don't ever see him making an impact with the big club if he even makes it at all.

Edited by ogreslayer, 13 June 2012 - 10:07 AM.

[wingslogo19]

This doesn't sound the greatest

[ogreslayer]

I hope to god that this not true,not ready to face the truth that the preds will never be a stanley cup contender.

Search your feelings. You know it to be true.

[esteef]

He's not A complete moron, he's going to July 1st.

This. He'd be a complete dumbass to not at least see what's out there on July 1st. Unless his rights get traded to the team he wanted all along (like us ).

esteef

Edited by esteef, 13 June 2012 - 01:29 PM.

[Hatethedrake!]

Poile only trades with Holmgren so I expect Suter's right to be dealt to the Flyers. However it does not mean he will sign there. He will still sign with the Wings on July 1st. Same with Parise.

[Nightfall]

You kind of hit it in the last part of your comment. Because you can make either the pick and/or the player conditional on signing. Like in the Stuart rights trade, the pick only changes hands if Stuart signs with SJ. If not, the best the Wings did was get a player that will be a depth add to GR.

As far as that package for Suter, given that C'bus flipped a 5th rounder to Montreal for the rights to Wisniewski last year, I think a 3rd for Suter is more than fair. As to Ferraro, given his last 2 sub-par years in juniors & an underwhelming run in GR so far, I would have absolutely no problem seeing him flipped to Nashville as compensation if the Wings sign Suter early. At this point, I don't ever see him making an impact with the big club if he even makes it at all.

A 3rd is a steep price to pay, but I would bite if the 3rd was conditional to us signing him.

As for Ferraro, he had one complete season in GR and is still an unknown commodity. I think he is good trade bait for getting his rights initially. Definitely not the "scrub" I was thinking about though. We got a total scrub in the deal with Stuart. Ferraro is a much better prospect so we better get a deal done if we trade him.

[Bannedforlife]

I just don't understand this.

Why would anyone trade a 3rd round pick plus another player just for the rights to talk to someone before July 1st? There is no guarantee that they will be signed. A more logical thing would be a scrub player like the one we got from San Jose, and then a 7th round pick if we sign the player.

Ummmm, because that will show that Holland is being as aggressive as humanly possible to make this team competitive.

Wont you be furious if it comes out that suter told poile that the only teams on his list are the flyers and the red wings, and that Holland had the opportunity to acquire his rights for a 2nd but thought that the 'price was too high,' and philly makes the move instead and subsequently signs suter? I think lgw would probably implode.

[Nightfall]

Ummmm, because that will show that Holland is being as aggressive as humanly possible to make this team competitive.

Wont you be furious if it comes out that suter told poile that the only teams on his list are the flyers and the red wings, and that Holland had the opportunity to acquire his rights for a 2nd but thought that the 'price was too high,' and philly makes the move instead and subsequently signs suter? I think lgw would probably implode.

First off, in that situation you are not going to hear about the negotiations in that kind of detail.
Second, if Poile were given that ultimatum, he would go to both Philly and the Red Wings and ask what they would be willing give up and create a bidding war between them.
Lastly, neither team would be willing to "trade for the negotiation rights" for a second round pick. Now, they would be willing to trade for a 7th round pick and if Suter is signed, then the pick elevates to a 2nd round pick. As history has shown us, just because their rights are traded doesn't mean they are a "shoo in" to be signed by that team.

[ogreslayer]

First off, in that situation you are not going to hear about the negotiations in that kind of detail.
Second, if Poile were given that ultimatum, he would go to both Philly and the Red Wings and ask what they would be willing give up and create a bidding war between them.
Lastly, neither team would be willing to "trade for the negotiation rights" for a second round pick. Now, they would be willing to trade for a 7th round pick and if Suter is signed, then the pick elevates to a 2nd round pick. As history has shown us, just because their rights are traded doesn't mean they are a "shoo in" to be signed by that team.

And you know this because you have contacts in both front offices? If Poile "creates a bidding war" wouldn't that be more than possible?

[Nightfall]

And you know this because you have contacts in both front offices? If Poile "creates a bidding war" wouldn't that be more than possible?

Read this first, and then let me know what you think. It is reasons like this why you won't see this escalate to anything better than a 3rd round pick. If it does, no team will bite because of the risks in the past.

http://blogs.thescore.com/nhl/2011/06/08/the-risk-of-trading-for-negotiating-rights/

From the article...

"There’s considerable risk whenever an NHL general manager moves to acquire an impending unrestricted free agent’s rights. There’s next to zero guarantee that the player being coveted will sign with his temporary home, unless an informal agreement is brokered in advance, and even though it’s usually fringe prospects or mid-round draft picks going the other way – teams are giving SOMETHING up for little more than a head start at snatching up a player looking for a raise."

[ogreslayer]

Read this first, and then let me know what you think. It is reasons like this why you won't see this escalate to anything better than a 3rd round pick. If it does, no team will bite because of the risks in the past.

http://blogs.thescore.com/nhl/2011/06/08/the-risk-of-trading-for-negotiating-rights/

From the article...

"There’s considerable risk whenever an NHL general manager moves to acquire an impending unrestricted free agent’s rights. There’s next to zero guarantee that the player being coveted will sign with his temporary home, unless an informal agreement is brokered in advance, and even though it’s usually fringe prospects or mid-round draft picks going the other way – teams are giving SOMETHING up for little more than a head start at snatching up a player looking for a raise."

One man's opinion, not gospel, and that man is not an NHL GM. Again, you can't ignore the fact that inclusion of picks/players can be made conditional upon signing. So yes, I think with a generally weak UFA pool this year, it is entirely possible that a package for Suter's rights could turn into something as big as a 2nd round pick+prospect conditional on Suter signing. And who's to say that there won't be a GM that will consider the risk worth it by making a package like that non-conditional. Who here thought that Ville Leino was worth $4.5m a year for 5 years, yet Darcy Regier still took on the risk of signing him. Personally, I never discount humanity's desperation & stupidity when it comes to risk/reward decisions.

For other examples of botched risk/reward decisions, see: DiPietro, Rick; Lecavalier, Vinny; and I'm sure many here would add Franzen, Johan

Edited by ogreslayer, 13 June 2012 - 02:03 PM.

[Nightfall]

One man's opinion, not gospel, and that man is not an NHL GM. Again, you can't ignore the fact that inclusion of picks/players can be made conditional upon signing. So yes, I think with a generally weak UFA pool this year, it is entirely possible that a package for Suter's rights could turn into something as big as a 2nd round pick+prospect conditional on Suter signing. And who's to say that there won't be a GM that will consider the risk worth it by making a package like that non-conditional. Who here thought that Ville Leino was worth $4.5m a year for 5 years, yet Darcy Regier still took on the risk of signing him. Personally, I never discount humanity's desperation & stupidity when it comes to risk/reward decisions.

For other examples of botched risk/reward decisions, see: DiPietro, Rick; Lecavalier, Vinny; and I'm sure many here would add Franzen, Johan

Very true. I guess if one GM is stupid enough to give away a 2nd round pick for negotiating rights, that is fine. As for the track record of signing free agents, how many wings fans would be pissed of if Holland did that and didn't get a deal done? People would be lining up to flame Holland for spending the 2nd round pick for nothing.

The best thing anyone can do is look at the track record and make a judgement call. Would you be willing to give away a 2nd round pick with no guarantee to sign Suter? I would hesitate before making that decision. It better be a situation where my team is the place he says he wants to go before I make that decision.

[Bannedforlife]

Very true. I guess if one GM is stupid enough to give away a 2nd round pick for negotiating rights, that is fine. As for the track record of signing free agents, how many wings fans would be pissed of if Holland did that and didn't get a deal done? People would be lining up to flame Holland for spending the 2nd round pick for nothing.

The best thing anyone can do is look at the track record and make a judgement call. Would you be willing to give away a 2nd round pick with no guarantee to sign Suter? I would hesitate before making that decision. It better be a situation where my team is the place he says he wants to go before I make that decision.

I wouldnt be upset at all. At least I would know for certain that Holland did everything in his power to make it happen.

Also, the only reason that the most highly coveted UFA defenceman could be had for only a 2nd is because of the uncertainty. If Poile did a sign and trade, he would receive a 1st, 2nd, roster player and prospects.

Finally, if we did get Suter for a 2nd and it doesnt work out, whats to stop Holland from trading his rights to somebody else for their 2nd?

[ogreslayer]

Very true. I guess if one GM is stupid enough to give away a 2nd round pick for negotiating rights, that is fine. As for the track record of signing free agents, how many wings fans would be pissed of if Holland did that and didn't get a deal done? People would be lining up to flame Holland for spending the 2nd round pick for nothing.

The best thing anyone can do is look at the track record and make a judgement call. Would you be willing to give away a 2nd round pick with no guarantee to sign Suter? I would hesitate before making that decision. It better be a situation where my team is the place he says he wants to go before I make that decision.

How many Wings fans would be pissed if say theoretically the Flyers did flip a 2nd rounder to Nashville for Suter's rights & he ended up signing there? I can imagine the pitchforks & torches and cries of "Don't give me the cost was too high crap again" already. If I were in Kenny's shoes, which clearly I'm not, yes I would want some sort of confidence most likely in the form of having one of those "it's really not tampering, I was just having a pleasant coversation with a player's agent" conversation prior to pulling the trigger if having the quality of the pick being conditional on signing isn't an option.

[Nightfall]

How many Wings fans would be pissed if say theoretically the Flyers did flip a 2nd rounder to Nashville for Suter's rights & he ended up signing there? I can imagine the pitchforks & torches and cries of "Don't give me the cost was too high crap again" already. If I were in Kenny's shoes, which clearly I'm not, yes I would want some sort of confidence most likely in the form of having one of those "it's really not tampering, I was just having a pleasant coversation with a player's agent" conversation prior to pulling the trigger if having the quality of the pick being conditional on signing isn't an option.

Look at the history revolving around negotiating rights and Dan Hamhuis. When he was traded to Pittsburgh for a 3rd round pick, the Pens thought at the time he would be a slam dunk to sign. As it turned out, he went to Vancouver and rumor had it he took less money at the time to play there.

As you mentioned in your last couple sentences, trading away a 2nd or 3rd round pick with no guarantee is not easy to swallow. Even you cannot guarantee you would do it, so what makes you think Holland would? You are approaching it like a GM should approach it. Make the pick a 7th rounder if the player can't be signed. Making it 2nd or 3rd round guaranteed with no guarantee you are going to sign the player is a risky proposition and due to backfire.

Otherwise, I do agree with you. If the Flyers did give a 2nd round pick to Suters rights and he signed there, then they may rebel against Holland. At the same time though, those deals are typically done under the table, and most Wings fans would just know that is where Suter wanted to go at that stage and the Preds just wanted a draft pick for him.

I wouldnt be upset at all. At least I would know for certain that Holland did everything in his power to make it happen.

Also, the only reason that the most highly coveted UFA defenceman could be had for only a 2nd is because of the uncertainty. If Poile did a sign and trade, he would receive a 1st, 2nd, roster player and prospects.

Finally, if we did get Suter for a 2nd and it doesnt work out, whats to stop Holland from trading his rights to somebody else for their 2nd?

Just based on the history of trading for rights to sign, I believe that these deals are done before the sign and trade happens. Very few teams would be willing to trade for the rights of a player that the player has no interest in signing there. Look at the Bryzgalov trade for a 3rd rounder last season. That deal was in the bag before the signing happened. Look at the Stuart trade this year for a 7th rounder. San Jose has his rights, but his chances of signing there are 33% as there are the Kings and Ducks to still be in the running.

As for your final point, with 2.5 weeks left before he becomes a UFA, most teams Holland would try to deal with would probably just wait until July 1st at this stage. Why spend for a pick when you can just wait it out. Besides, at that point, Suter may be seen as difficult if the Wings couldn't get him, so why spend a pick on a player that is just hunting for a contract?

You are right though, anything is possible.