95 replies to this topic

[MrBest7]

Offer sheets just don't work. Penner only "worked" because the Ducks didn't have cap space, and he ended up underachieving in Edmonton. They traded him for less than they gave up in compensation.

The Vanek deal was the equivalent of almost $10M/yr with today's cap. He scored 43g/84p as a 22/23 year old, and has never got back to a point/game since, and scored less than 30g two of the last three years.

If you look at the great NHL players in history, most of their production is in their mid-twenties. Rarely do they match their earlier performance once they hit 30 years of age. So why do teams throw so much money to 28 and 29 year olds? Statistics show players are most productive at 23 to 26 years of age. For example, Wayne Gretzky's best years were between 20 through 24. Steve Yzerman's most productive years were at ages 24 through 28. Brendan Shanahan's most productive years were at age 24 and 25. Mark Messier's most productive years were ages 22 through 31.

[Buppy]

If you look at the great NHL players in history, most of their production is in their mid-twenties. Rarely do they match their earlier performance once they hit 30 years of age. So why do teams throw so much money to 28 and 29 year olds? Statistics show players are most productive at 23 to 26 years of age. For example, Wayne Gretzky's best years were between 20 through 24. Steve Yzerman's most productive years were at ages 24 through 28. Brendan Shanahan's most productive years were at age 24 and 25. Mark Messier's most productive years were ages 22 through 31.

What does that have to do with anything? Vanek was 23 when he got his offer sheet, just turned 28 this year. If anything, that's an argument for not giving a long-term offer to Kane. I'd rather not give up a bunch of picks and pay a guy $6.5-7M to produce like Franzen. Assuming we could even get him that cheap anyway.

[MrBest7]

Buppy,

My point is the Wings need to focus on signing younger players such as Kane...instead of focusing their efforts on high priced thirty something’s like Doan. If Evander Kane was in the draft, he'd be #1 overall. I wouldn't mind giving up a first round, a second and a third. Remember that Kane has proven himself and a sure thing.

$6.7 million per year would be my limit. I don’t think Winnipeg would match that offer. If they did, I’d make a similar offer to their other great player in Blake Wheeler next off season. This strategy is how larger markets can control smaller market teams.

OFFER COMPENSATION
$1,110,249 or below None
Over $1,110,249 to $1,682,194 Third-round choice
Over $1,682,194 to $3,364,391 Second-round choice
Over $3,364,391 to $5,046,585 First-round and third-round choice
Over $5,046,585 to $6,728,781 First-round, second-round and third-round choice
Over $6,728,781 to $8,410,976 Two first-round choices, one second- and one third-round choice
Over $8,410,976 Four first-round choices

[dirtydangles]

Buppy,

My point is the Wings need to focus on signing younger players such as Kane...instead of focusing their efforts on high priced thirty something’s like Doan. If Evander Kane was in the draft, he'd be #1 overall. I wouldn't mind giving up a first round, a second and a third. Remember that Kane has proven himself and a sure thing.

$6.7 million per year would be my limit. I don’t think Winnipeg would match that offer. If they did, I’d make a similar offer to their other great player in Blake Wheeler next off season. This strategy is how larger markets can control smaller market teams.

OFFER COMPENSATION
$1,110,249 or below None
Over $1,110,249 to $1,682,194 Third-round choice
Over $1,682,194 to $3,364,391 Second-round choice
Over $3,364,391 to $5,046,585 First-round and third-round choice
Over $5,046,585 to $6,728,781 First-round, second-round and third-round choice
Over $6,728,781 to $8,410,976 Two first-round choices, one second- and one third-round choice
Over $8,410,976 Four first-round choices

If Kane signed that offersheet then WPG would match for sure. 6.7mill with their franchise player locked up long term. The kid is great. It'll be overpayment for a few years but will be worth it considering the compensation is some lateish round 1,2,3 round picks. I think we would have to go up into the next compensation bracket and then try to work a trade with WPG including players rather than doing the full 4 picks. Just my two cents.

[Buppy]

Buppy,

My point is the Wings need to focus on signing younger players such as Kane...instead of focusing their efforts on high priced thirty something’s like Doan. If Evander Kane was in the draft, he'd be #1 overall. I wouldn't mind giving up a first round, a second and a third. Remember that Kane has proven himself and a sure thing.

$6.7 million per year would be my limit. I don’t think Winnipeg would match that offer. If they did, I’d make a similar offer to their other great player in Blake Wheeler next off season. This strategy is how larger markets can control smaller market teams.

...

And my point is, regardless of what we "need" or how much we like Kane, the rules regarding RFAs make it next to impossible to sign one at anything reasonable. I'd be all for trying to trade for his rights, but the offer sheet process just doesn't work. Kane is not a sure thing, has not proven he's worth $6.5M+, no more than Vanek. No more than Bryan Little. He put up 31 as a 21 year old, and regressed after. Kane could do the same, and at the cap hit you're offering he'd be way overpaid even if he just stagnates. You'd be making him one of the top 25 paid forwards and right now he produces like Franzen. It's unlikely the cap will keep going up the way it has, so he would need to improve significantly to be worth that kind of money.

The strategy might put the Jets in a bad spot for next summer, when they have Bogosian, Wheeler, Little, and several others to re-sign. Or it might not. Or it could backfire and leave us with a very expensive young underachiever and out a handful of picks that would likely be worth more.

[Dabura]

6.7 would almost certainly be matched, IMO.

Wheeler FTW!

[MrBest7]

You'd be making him one of the top 25 paid forwards and right now he produces like Franzen. It's unlikely the cap will keep going up the way it has, so he would need to improve significantly to be worth that kind of money.

"...it could backfire and leave us with a very expensive young underachiever and out a handful of picks that would likely be worth more.

Buppy,

Statistics prove that Kane will most likely out produce Zach Parise over the next 5 and 10 years.

Example...
Wayne Gretzky's best years were between 20 through 24.
Steve Yzerman's most productive years were at ages 24 through 28.
Brendan Shanahan's most productive years were at age 24 and 25.
Mark Messier's most productive years were ages 22 through 31.

Also.. Which would you prefer, Microsoft stock now... or three years after its initial public offering?

[Dabura]

Any RFA talk like this is pretty moot, IMO. Even if Holland weren't totally opposed to offer-sheeting, it really is, like Buppy said, next-to-impossible to sign someone else's restricted star.

[Buppy]

Buppy,

Statistics prove that Kane will most likely out produce Zach Parise over the next 5 and 10 years.

Example...
Wayne Gretzky's best years were between 20 through 24.
Steve Yzerman's most productive years were at ages 24 through 28.
Brendan Shanahan's most productive years were at age 24 and 25.
Mark Messier's most productive years were ages 22 through 31.

Also.. Which would you prefer, Microsoft stock now... or three years after its initial public offering?

Well, again, that doesn't change the RFA rules. Furthermore, "most likely" is not a guarantee. Many players never live up to their early promise, or take several years to do so. Vanek and Little, as I mentioned previously. Some players peak late. We have several examples on the Wings. To justify paying Kane what you'd need to in order for the Jets to not match, he would have to improve considerably starting next year.

IF, and it's a big if, you could get him for around $6M, and IF that first rounder doesn't end up a high pick, and IF he doesn't regress, it could be worth it. More likely you'd be giving up at least two 1sts, a 2nd and 3rd, and paying him far more than he's worth, maybe more than he'll ever be worth. If you want great young talent, the best bet is to draft it yourself. You can't do that by giving away all your picks. Also, you'd likely be able to package those picks with players to get a bigger return than Kane + whatever you could get for the players alone.

[MrBest7]

Kane is not a sure thing, has not proven he's worth $6.5M+, no more than Vanek. No more than Bryan Little. He put up 31 as a 21 year old, and regressed after.

Byran Little averages 45 points each year. Last year was no different...Little scored 46 points.

Thomas Vanek on the other hand is a solid performer. Vanek averages 64 points every year...last year he scored 61.

Evander Kane on the other hand scored 26, 43, 57. Statistics show players are more productive at 23 to 26. I'll predict Kane scores 68 points next year.

[The Axe]

You haven't watched evader Kane play much huh? You act like he was lucky tp score 30 goals in a season. He has size what we need. He has a heavy shot. He is physical and he has speed. Something the wings lack. What does our team lack in? We lack a wing that can finish. To say he only had one good season and that he may not do it here is a reach. Like I stated he has never played on a line with skill like the wings have.

So why will he be available then?

[Buppy]

Byran Little averages 45 points each year. Last year was no different...Little scored 46 points.

Thomas Vanek on the other hand is a solid performer. Vanek averages 64 points every year...last year he scored 61.

Evander Kane on the other hand scored 26, 43, 57. Statistics show players are more productive at 23 to 26. I'll predict Kane scores 68 points next year.

At 21, his first full season, Little scored 31 goals and 51 points. The next season he scored 13g, 34p. The next 18g, 48p. 24g, 46p last year. Similar amount of games each year.

At 23, in his 2nd year, Vanek scored 43g, 84p. In the five years since, he's averages 32.4g, 63p. Again, no major time lost to skew the averages.

Thus far, neither player has matched their early production. Little's goal scoring regressed substantially, just starting to rebound 3 years later. Vanek's point totals regressed substantially, and given his age now he may never match those totals again. Both players regressed during that 23-26 age range. Kane follows that path, you should expect him to average ~45 points for the next few years.

Bobby Ryan is another example, though he's mostly just stagnated. 31g, 57p in 64 games as a 21yo rookie (40g, 73p pace for 82 games). Fairly similar the next two years, then a down year this one, where he scored the same 31g, 57p but in 82 games instead of 64. Again, he's in your magic age bracket.

What most players do doesn't mean Kane is certain to improve. He might, and I'd love to have him. But even if he does score ~68 points next year, paying him $6.5-7M is still overpayment (unless 50 of those points are goals). Especially considering he's not a center nor particularly good defensively. And you have to give up a bunch of draft picks for that right. And that's making the assumption that you could even get him that cheap. The Jets would know better than anyone his potential for further improvement, and how much it would hurt their team to lose him. If they think there's a reasonable chance he can live up to a deal like that, they'd match.

There's a reason few offer sheets are made. It's not some code of honor between GMs. It's the RFA rules.

[MrBest7]

More likely you'd be giving up at least two 1sts, a 2nd and 3rd...

OFFER COMPENSATION
$1,110,249 or below None
Over $1,110,249 to $1,682,194 Third-round choice
Over $1,682,194 to $3,364,391 Second-round choice
Over $3,364,391 to $5,046,585 First-round and third-round choice
Over $5,046,585 to $6,728,781 First-round, second-round and third-round choice
Over $6,728,781 to $8,410,976 Two first-round choices, one second- and one third-round choice
Over $8,410,976 Four first-round choices

[MrBest7]

But even if he does score ~68 points next year, paying him $6.5-7M is still overpayment (unless 50 of those points are goals).

Pavel Datyuk is paid $6.7Million and averages 70 points (23g) every year. Is he worth it?
Henrik Zetterberg is paid $6.1Million and averages 73 points (23g) every year. Is he worth it?
21 year old Kane scoring 68 points (25g) is not worth it?????

Edited by MrBest7, 08 August 2012 - 03:55 AM.

[Buppy]

Pavel Datyuk is paid $6.7Million and averages 70 points (23g) every year. Is he worth it?
Henrik Zetterberg is paid $6.1Million and averages 73 points (23g) every year. Is he worth it?
21 year old Kane scoring 68 points (25g) is not worth it?????

Datsyuk and Zetterberg are centers who play Selke defense, and even considering that, no. 20-odd goals and 70 points (playing ~80 games) is below what I think we should expect.

Datsyuk has scored 196 points in 206 games (.95 ppg) the last three seasons. His points were down in the injury-plagued 09-10 season, and goals were down last year, but I would expect him to get back to high-20s - low-30s goals, and stay close to or over a point/game for at least a couple more years.

Hank has 219 points in 236 games (.93 ppg). His goals have been down for three years, and he had a horrid start last year. I don't know if he can get his goals back up, but I think he can do better than his point totals last year. Maybe not for the duration of his contract, but it is less than what you'd need to offer Kane, and at least he had aproven track record to base it on. I'm not all that happy with his numbers since he signed his deal. I never expected him to be "worth" it in the later years, but I was hoping the early years would make up for it. Considering all the intangibles I can't complain too much though, so long as he doesn't degrade too much further too fast.

~$6.7M for 68 points (.83 ppg) for a winger who doesn't play Selke defense is overpaid. Not by a huge amount, but still overpaid. And you're banking on a big IF, in that he needs to continue to improve just to get to that point. And you have to give up a bunch of draft picks to get him. I still don't think we could get him for the compensation you think we could. Who knows what those picks could become. Edmonton gave up a chance at Tyler Myers, Justin Schultz, and a 3rd rounder (nothing special so far) for the right to overpay an underperforming Penner for a few years.

I wouldn't have a problem paying Kane that amount if we didn't have to give up anything for him. Good enough chance that he will improve. But there's too big a risk that he won't improve to justify paying that and giving up the picks.

[number9]

just to compare some of our picks over the past few drafts to Kane.

2012
1. Vasilevski (taken by Tampa with our 1st)
2. Frk
3. Paterson

2011
1. Puempel (taken by Ottawa with our 1st)
2. Jurco or Ouellet or Sproul (we had three 2nd round picks)
3. Quine

2010
1. Sheahan
2. Jarnkrok
3. Aubry

2009
1. Ashton (taken by Tampa with our 1st)
2. Tatar or Ferraro (we had two 2nd round picks)
3. Nestrasil or Fournier (we had two 3rd round picks)

2008
1. McCollum
2. Delmas (taken by Colorado with our 2nd)
3. Nicastro

2007
1. Smith
2. Spaling (taken by Nashville with our 2nd)
3. Andersson

Theres really only 3 bad picks in there IMO. Aubry, McCollum, and Delmas, and Delmas was picked by COL with our pick. The only draft year I would have given up our first 3 picks for an overpaid Kane on what would most likely be a super long contract would have been 2008. And we had the last pick of the draft that year so we were in the crappiest position to draft well that year.

This is supposed to be a very strong draft class coming up and we will probably have a higher pick than we are used to. So I think it would be a very bad idea to overpay an RFA and seriously jeopardize our future. In a parity league championships are built on homegrown talent on good contracts.