All depends on how much he signs for. If over $8.41m, it would be 4 1st rounders. Figure it will be in the next tier down which would be 2 1st rounders, a 2nd, & a 3rd.
And how's that been working out for the Flyers? I would say it hasn't been responsible for winning a Cup, but his moves did manage to win one in LA.
If the contract is worth more than 42 million, the compensation will be 4, 1st round picks. The CBA has a clause that is there to prevent long term offer sheets. The maximum # of years you can divide the contract by (for compensation purposes) is 5,
So even if its only 100 million, that would make it 100/5 = 20 million which is way higher than the 8.41 threshold for the 4, 1sts.
The problem is Holland is getting burned by being too conservative with his moves, and in doing so he's letting the team decline instead of taking a risk and possibly making a wrong move. There's an old saying 'Action is always better than inaction'.
As much as I wanted Weber, Holland was right not to offer sheet him. It makes sense for Holmgren to do it, because if his offer is matched he doesn't have to face Weber more than twice a season.
If Holland offer sheeted him and Nashville matched, we essentially negotiated a life-time contract for a division rival. It made more sense to trade for him and then negotiate a deal, and it appears Holland was one of the major players in talks.
There is a silver lining to all of this though, if Nashville doesn't match, a division rival's defence has been decimated even worse than ours, and Philly will be in a weird situation where they can no longer keep Pronger on LTI (you can't replace a player on Injury reserve with a player who makes more money). That will put them temporarily over the salary cap, allowing us to make an offer on one of their defenceman to shore up our top pairings.