• Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

Sign in to follow this  
Followers 0
Richdg

worse before better.....

Rate this topic

82 posts in this topic

Oh those lovable Red Wings. Let's be honest, these first 3 games have been really hard to watch. We as wingnuts have been spoiled over the last 20 years. But, as always happens with dynasty's, we held the same hand for far to long. There is no doubt that moving proven players that help you win championships is hard to do. But we should have done just that. But that is water under the bridge. The other by product of our success is bad drafts. We have a weak farm system. Most of the guys with NHL talent are either here-thanks to the injuries or are 2+ years away. The owrse part is, we are not bad enough to draft in the top 5. IMHO we will end up around 15-just making the PO's this year, and thus missing out on the top end talent that could be in Detroit within a year. So yes, we get to add some more young talent in this years draft, but again most of it is 3+ years away.

So back to the top. We will get worse before we get better. For many of us this will be a hard jagged pill to swallow. But we don't have a lot of choice.

Now is it possible we have one of those wonderfull hot streaks were we win 10 out of 12 games? yes. But we also could have a bad streak where we lose 10 out of 12 as well. In fact, neither would surprise me...

So the real question, where do we go from here? This is what I would do:

1. Let it be known to the rest of the NHL that we are sellers. Everyone is available, for the right price of course. The hard part is, we don't have much in terms of value to get good young talnet back in return. Only 4 guys would fetch much: Z, Dat, Kronwall, and Howard. The only one of that group I wouldn't want to move is Howard, but he is a UFA after the season, so if the price is right, even he could go.

2. My goal in all trades is 3 fold: clear out cap space, pick up young talent, and add draft picks. Capgeek says we have 45 million spent for next season with a 13/14 cap of 64 million. Leaving 19 million to spend. I would prefer to resign Howard-we have nothing else ready to take his place and good G's are hard to find. That will eat up around 5 million to resign him. Leaving us with about 14 million to spend. The goal should be to get to 20+ million to spend in FA after we resign Howard.

3. We have 2 buyouts that we can use, that will not effect the cap. If we can't trade them away, I use the buyouts on Quincey and Franzen. That would give us another 7.7 million to spend.

4. If I am able to trade away datsyuk, then I would resign Filppula. Dat makes about 6.7 million per year and does have trade value. Filppula-who is 7 years younger is a UFA. Per the new CBA, resigning your current players allows you to go to a 8 year contract. Creating a chance for a lower cap hit. Yes, that would mean Filppula is 36 when his contract expires, or 1 year older than datsyuk is now. If the choice is 6 years @ 5 million per or 8 years @ 4 million per, go with the later. That would free up another 2.7 million after moving Dat.

5. If you take a long look at the RW's from top to bottom, you see several positions with glaring holes. For example, we have 0 big RH shooting RW's in the organization. Every RW is small or is a LH shot. We have the same issue on D, only 4 RH Dmen in the organization after this season. Most of which haven't played a single pro hockey game. The closest would be Nicastro, but he is hardly playing for the Griffins. The 3rd area that we are lacking in, is big C's. Unless you count Abdelkader as a C, we just don't have many over 6ft tall.

6. 13/14 Free Agency. We saw how well this worked last year, but this year some things could be different. There are several big under 30 forwards coming up on their UFA years. Most of which are canadians from Onterio. Meaning we are close to their homes. We also will have a nice pile of cash to spend. As of today, we have about 14 million to spend. Buyouts to Q and Franzen adds another 7.7 million to that total. That means we could sign 3 high end UFA's for 7 million per year. If we are able to move guys like Calaicovo, Eaves, bert, and sammy (please someone take them!) that would free up another 8.5+ million to add 1 or 2 more guys to fill some holes. The one glearing position of weakness in this years FA class in RH Dmen under 30. Just are not many available, as in none.

7. As for this years draft, That is my one focus, quality players that are RH shots. be they C's, RW's, or Dmen. For those that have never played, yes the hand of the shooter/passer does matter. It matters a lot. The half a second a guy has to spend turning to shoot or pass makes a huge difference.

Now I am sure some will jump up and down about trading dat or cutting this guy or that. So be it. But and here is the thought. Are we going to win the SC with Dat over the next 2 years? I would bet the house on no. So let's move him. I would bet a forward heavy team with few quality C's like the rangers would love to have him. They have several big young fowards and RH Dmen that would fit us. Same with the Devils. I am sure there are more that are in the same boat. But at the end of the day, the worse thing we can do is to stand pat and hope for something better out of the same parts. It just isn't going to happen.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Here we go. Fantasy buyout land again. After this year, Franzen's buyout is 22.5 mil and Quincey's is 3.5 mil. "Mr. Illitch, I need 26 mil today so I can buyout 2 contracts I created." "Ken, you've just been demoted to fan."

Next

IllinoisRedWingsFan likes this

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

We went through this same crap in 06/07 after we lost Shanahan/Yzerman. The team will be fine. No need to sell the team when we are a whopping three games into the season.

Also, you put way too much emphasis on the draft. It's really hard to build a team throught the draft alone unless you are consistently drafting in the top 5, which means you have to suck for a long time. Worked for Pittsburgh and Edmonton. Drafting players is always a gamble. Ask Thomas McCollum, or even Angelo Esposito...

kipwinger likes this

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Here we go. Fantasy buyout land again. After this year, Franzen's buyout is 22.5 mil and Quincey's is 3.5 mil. "Mr. Illitch, I need 26 mil today so I can buyout 2 contracts I created." "Ken, you've just been demoted to fan."

Next

Mr. I cares about winning. Not the bank account. If you have followed the RW's at all, you would know that. fact is Franzen is getting his money no matter what. Period. It is a sunk cost. We do have a chance to "fix" the mistake, free up the cap room, and replace a poor player/players. Same with Quincey.

But hey, everything is fine.........

Of those four you mentioned only Howard would be a remote possibility. That is just not how this organization runs things...

That is way we get further and further from the cup every year. Doing the same thing year after year and expecting a different result is stupid.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

No, conclusion based on three games of data is panic.

Says the man who created a Lashoff thread based on 1 game of data.

We went through this same crap in 06/07 after we lost Shanahan/Yzerman.

Difference then was we had Datsyuk and Zetterberg ready to step into their shoes, and the likes of Filpulla and Hudler and Kronwall to fill secondary positions. We also had Z and Franzen and Flip and Hudler and Sammy and more on really cheap contracts which gave us plenty of cap room to sign the Rafalskis and the Stuarts.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Says the man who created a Lashoff thread based on 1 game of data.

LOL. As if a "this guy looks promising" thread equates to a thread stating, "this team blows; we need to trade everyone."

Nice try.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Like another poster said, this isn't NHL 13. You don't blow up your team and start a rebuild like that.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Quick everybody, turn on NHL13 and see what kinda trades will work!

Ovechkin and Green for Cleary White Kindl a 1st and a 2nd....

LOL. As if a "this guy looks promising" thread equates to a thread stating, "this team blows; we need to trade everyone."

Nice try.

also, Lashoff has looked promising for a little while.... him playing up on the big club and doing well just re-enforces that he looks promising.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

"Ken, your hair is on fire."

"What? Pshhh. Nahhhhhh. Pssshhhh. We draft from withiin now."

"Holland is a dolt. I'm done with this team. I won't be posting on these forums anymore." "Wait, the team he built won a Cup? I'm coming back!!" "Holland is terrible! Inexcusable!"

Edited by Crymson

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

As long as Franzen is producing 25-30 goals, 50-60 points he's going to stay. Whether we like it or not, that's good enough production that you can't just buy him out, and it's not good enough to overlook his deficiencies.

The only thing I would say is if we are out of the playoff hunt I wouldn't mind being a seller to an extent. But it would have to really depend on the information that I don't have(IE. Is datsyuk going to stay after his contract, how do I feel about our farm system, etc.) If I feel Datsyuk is gone after his contract is up, then it's a pretty easy choice for me, it would suck, as Datsyuk is one of my all time favorite players, but if trading him will give us a Kessel type return then you have to do it.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

LOL. As if a "this guy looks promising" thread equates to a thread stating, "this team blows; we need to trade everyone."

Nice try.

Every wing looks promising in their first game, from Kyle Calder to Derek Meech. I remember someone here saying Lebda was going to be "elite".

None of which takes away from the fact that 3 games is still a bigger sample size than 1 game, especially when it's more like 3 seasons that the Wings have been in their slow but inexorable decline.. About the same length of time that you' 've been in denial.

esteef likes this

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

We went through this same crap in 06/07 after we lost Shanahan/Yzerman. The team will be fine. No need to sell the team when we are a whopping three games into the season.

Also, you put way too much emphasis on the draft. It's really hard to build a team throught the draft alone unless you are consistently drafting in the top 5, which means you have to suck for a long time. Worked for Pittsburgh and Edmonton. Drafting players is always a gamble. Ask Thomas McCollum, or even Angelo Esposito...

I agree, and disagree here...

I agree 100% that it's really tuff to build thru the draft, and where we've been picking we're lucky to find 3rd line forwards, or #5/#6 Dmen.

Now I disagree with how things are when compared to 06/07 after Stevie, and Shanny left...We still had Lids, and Dats/Hank were much younger...Today there's no Lidstrom, and our 2 top forwards are several years older...Today this team is in much worse shape overall.

This is gonna be a rough season - the Wings will be lucky to end the season in 8th spot, but more likely 9th, or lower.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It's unbelievably difficult to build through first round picks, unless your in the top 5 consistently. Edmonton and Pittsburgh have been able to do it and the jury is still out on Edmonton. I think the Wings are fine. Had the puck not struck the post twice we aren't even posting about this. Our farm system btw is pretty loaded but most of the good stuff is in junior. The Wings do not play 19 year olds.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Some more thoughts.

1. In the thousands of threads that people make about trades (all fantasy i know) the number 1 comeback is: "why would anyone want our junk". Ok, why would we want to keep it? If you can move a guy that is over 30 for a mid round pick, you do it. A 4th rounder for samualsson? hell yes!

2. Every team goes through peaks and valleys. We have been riding high for 20 years. We will be in a valley for the next 3-5 years depending on future moves. Z-33 and dat-35 are not going to get better over the next 3-5 years. their numbers have been dropping for 5 years and will continue to do so. Every year their numbers go down 4-7 points. Both were once good for 90 points per year, now they are in the 70 point range going going south. Where will they be 3-5 years from now when they are 40 or close to it? What value will they have then? Do any players take cuts in their salaries?

3. Those that like to through out "panic" are not reading or understanding what I wrote. I clearly said we will be fighting for the PO's-7th, 8th, or 9th, thus getting a pick around 15th in the upcoming draft. That isn't panic, that is spot on with what the vast majority of fans and media talking heads expect from the RW this year. But and this is key, we will only get worse over the next few years. guys over 30 don't get better. All of our "stars" are over 30, and there is no future stars in the system that will be ready over the next 2-3 seasons.

4. To get something of value, you have to give something of value. No this isn't a video game-which I don't play or even own a game system. To old for that myself. So if we want to trade for some young prospect that could be a future star, we have to have value to get him. For example-only and example so chill out, if we want a guy like Kreider it will take a datsyuk plus to get him. But if that deal was possible, we need to do it. if we don't and wait to build only through the draft, we are heading for several seasons of only 20 wins. Those of us that followed the RW's in the late 70's and early 80's remeber those wonderfull times. Yuck!

5. Those that try to defend franzen are lost. yes he can score 25-35 goals. But that is akin to when Rob deer played for the Tigers. yes he hit 30 HR per year, but he also struckout 200+ times per year, played crappy D, and hit below the mendoza line. One stat does not a good player make. Worse part is of the 30 franzen can score, 15 will come during a 20 game stretch when he is on fire and motivated.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I understand the thought process, it's a normal approach to start thinking long and hard about parting ways with some vetern players while they still have some trade value, BUT.....that hasn't be the Wings' style the past 20 years and I think that style has a large part in explaining why the team has been competitive and been able to keep players happy and attract new players. They are very loyal to their players and it has paid off. It is more difficult to keep up in a cap world though because even if everyone wants to come, you can't sign them all.

We'll see what happens the rest of the year, I'm not focusing too much on 3 games, but I must say I was a little worried coming into the year, nothing has changed that yet.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I understand the thought process, it's a normal approach to start thinking long and hard about parting ways with some vetern players while they still have some trade value, BUT.....that hasn't be the Wings' style the past 20 years and I think that style has a large part in explaining why the team has been competitive and been able to keep players happy and attract new players. They are very loyal to their players and it has paid off. It is more difficult to keep up in a cap world though because even if everyone wants to come, you can't sign them all.

We'll see what happens the rest of the year, I'm not focusing too much on 3 games, but I must say I was a little worried coming into the year, nothing has changed that yet.

Yes that was true.... before the cap. The 2 things that attract players are winning and money. But yet this past season we where not able to get the top UFA's. In fact it has been 6? years since we were able to get one of the top UFA's in the market. Hossa was the last real big timer that I remember. The rest of our signings have been second teir types.

Another thing to keep in mind is under the new CBA the max for resigning a FA is 8 years vs only 7 years for signing some other teams UFA. That will do 2 things: 1. increase the trade value for UFA's-they can get longer contracts and more money by resigning 2. increase trades. Expect this to be explioted by teams.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!


Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.


Sign In Now
Sign in to follow this  
Followers 0