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Why the Red Wings should be sellers this year


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#21 MasterPavel

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Posted 21 March 2013 - 05:00 PM

Flashy, I agree that there is separation between the top 5 and everyone else. However there are quite a few names outside of them that could turn out to be stars. Lindholm, Shinkaruk, Mantha, and Domi come to mind.

#22 Zetts

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Posted 21 March 2013 - 05:15 PM

The problem with this idea is that it's actually NOT a deep draft...2013 NHL draft lacks depth of talent

 

We're not getting a top 10 draft pick, that's pretty much guaranteed.  We don't need to sell and blow up a decent team to take a gamble on a pick who is very likely not to work out.  Given that the success rate of where we'd be drafting, there's a < 50% of our first round pick working out (see The Value of a (First-Half) First Round Draft Pick).  And it's extremely unlikely that the player we picked would ever be better than the player we traded to get the pick, even if said pick does manage to make it to the NHL at all.

 

So, really I'd rather just watch the Wings in the playoffs. 


Edited by Zetts, 21 March 2013 - 05:23 PM.


#23 nyqvististhefuture

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Posted 21 March 2013 - 05:37 PM

The problem with this idea is that it's actually NOT a deep draft...2013 NHL draft lacks depth of talent

 

We're not getting a top 10 draft pick, that's pretty much guaranteed.  We don't need to sell and blow up a decent team to take a gamble on a pick who is very likely not to work out.  Given that the success rate of where we'd be drafting, there's a < 50% of our first round pick working out (see The Value of a (First-Half) First Round Draft Pick).  And it's extremely unlikely that the player we picked would ever be better than the player we traded to get the pick, even if said pick does manage to make it to the NHL at all.

 

So, really I'd rather just watch the Wings in the playoffs. 

 

 

its highly unlikely the wings wont make the bottom 10 unless we dont get in the playoffs and win the lottery but theres still a chance were not guaranteed a playoff spot and im sure no one thought the 2003 draft would be as deep as it turned out to be , no one ever knows whos gonna be good till years from now to say the wings wouldnt get someone really good 15 - 30 cant be known till years from now

 

and if we say did trade filppula for a 1st theres a chance he could always pull a keith tkachuk and come back



#24 gcom007

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Posted 21 March 2013 - 05:43 PM

I don't disagree with the logic, but I'm hesitant to believe that we have the assets to really attract a lot of attention. Sure, we've got Flip, but what's he really worth after another uninspiring season thus far, more injuries, and the looming UFA status? He's likely our best reasonable trade asset. Franzen's value is crippled by his contract, and considering his biggest strength is scoring goals and he's not doing much of that lately, what's he worth? Cleary? Sammy? White? Quincey? I mean, what do you really get for those guys on the best day at this point?

 

I like the idea of it in theory, I just don't think we really have the pieces to make much of a splash, and for as little faith as I have in some of our guys, at this point, I have even less faith in Holland's ability to replace anyone. We've got young talent ready, but there's no guarantees that guys won't get up and sputter under the pressure of the full-time NHL gig. And anyone we draft won't be contributing to the Detroit Red Wings in the next year or two...or three or four...or five.

 

I have tried in the past to not join the anti-Ken Holland bandwagon, but the more I really think about it, the more I really have a hard time defending the guy's performance as a GM in the cap era. Once the league took away the ability to use Mike Illitch's endless bank account to lure top-tier free agents, Holland has struggled to bring talent in, he's made some bonehead decisions (Franzen over Hossa (?!?!?!?!?!?!?)), caught off guard multiple times in the off-season without a plan for players leaving, and worst of all in my mind, had no plan in place for Lidstrom's retirement. I'll give him credit for being the first to exploit the loophole in the cap era that allowed us to sign Franzen at Z at low cap hits, but even those aren't looking quite as bright and shiny as they were initially, especially Franzen's deal.

 

So basically, I'm not expecting much to happen at the deadline, even if we were to find ourselves out of the race. Furthermore, I'm not hopeful at all that we'll have a stellar offseason either. I don't Holland is as terrible as some think he is, but I don't think there's a whole lot you can say about him being exceptionally great in the cap era, especially since Bowman left the organization. It might not be that he's a bad cap-era GM though so much as maybe GMs just need to be switched out after 5-10 years, good run or not. After awhile, loyalty can start to become a liability in professional sports if not balanced with a healthy dose of pragmatism; while noble, it just doesn't always help get the job done. At some point, you've got to change your ways, or the team needs to find a new GM.


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#25 Richdg

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Posted 21 March 2013 - 05:56 PM

With no one else selling, we would get max returns for anyone that we move. Filppula and franzen would get at leasta 1st and maybe a second pick to go with it. Cleary, White and Miller are all UFA's after this season-none should be resigned, so move them for some more mid round picks. Eaves and Colaivaco would also get some mid round picks. this would also clear out cap space to resign out UFA/RFA that we want to keep: Howard, brunner, Kindl, Smith, add a Dekeyser, and maybe 1 or 2 UFA's this summer. Then we go into the draft with 12+ picks and can move up or dwn as needed to get the quality young talent we need.

The thought that keeping a streak alive to only get booted in the 1st round is silly. All streaks end sooner or later. having a streak and $2 keeps you a cup of coffee and that is about it. The goal is to win Cups. the second place team is just the first loser. Nothing more.The idea of 4, 5, 6 more years of just making the PO's, losing in the early rounds vs. taking a year or 2 off and loading up with young talent to win more cups, is no choice to me. To get a Crosby, Stamkos, Malkin type of player, you have to pick early. we could very well be 14 months from losing our star player and have NOTHING to replace him with.



#26 number9

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Posted 21 March 2013 - 06:02 PM

The only real tradeable piece we have is Fil and the likelihood of a late first rounder turning out to be as good as him is slim. And he's still young so I'd rather keep him.

 

We have the good prospect pool we need already. If anything this is going to be a team that adds a few pieces at the deadline. Imagine this team with Iginla. Our chances for a deep run would be much better



With no one else selling, we would get max returns for anyone that we move. Filppula and franzen would get at leasta 1st and maybe a second pick to go with it. Cleary, White and Miller are all UFA's after this season-none should be resigned, so move them for some more mid round picks. Eaves and Colaivaco would also get some mid round picks. this would also clear out cap space to resign out UFA/RFA that we want to keep: Howard, brunner, Kindl, Smith, add a Dekeyser, and maybe 1 or 2 UFA's this summer. Then we go into the draft with 12+ picks and can move up or dwn as needed to get the quality young talent we need.

The thought that keeping a streak alive to only get booted in the 1st round is silly. All streaks end sooner or later. having a streak and $2 keeps you a cup of coffee and that is about it. The goal is to win Cups. the second place team is just the first loser. Nothing more.The idea of 4, 5, 6 more years of just making the PO's, losing in the early rounds vs. taking a year or 2 off and loading up with young talent to win more cups, is no choice to me. To get a Crosby, Stamkos, Malkin type of player, you have to pick early. we could very well be 14 months from losing our star player and have NOTHING to replace him with.

 

No ones taking on Franzen's contract. Cleary has an NTC. And the rest of those guys don't have much value besides Fil



#27 dat's sick

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Posted 21 March 2013 - 06:32 PM

People seriously overvalue high draft picks. How many top 5 or top 10 guys from the last 5 years are stars today? Ask Edmonton. No one in this draft will be able to fill Datsyuk's shoes if he leaves after next year. The chance that Seth Jones will be a superstar d-man for the next 20 years is so small that it doesn't make sense to do the kind of risk-taking it would require to have a shot at him.
When Erik Karlsson was drafted, Ottawa fans were furious and though they made an awful pick. You NEVER know.

Keep being competetive, keep finding diamonds in the rough in the draft, keep looking for undrafted players to take a chance on.. build from within, stay classy, stay a model organization that players are likely to want to play for.

#28 FlashyG

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Posted 21 March 2013 - 06:53 PM

The only real tradeable piece we have is Fil and the likelihood of a late first rounder turning out to be as good as him is slim. And he's still young so I'd rather keep him.

 

We have the good prospect pool we need already. If anything this is going to be a team that adds a few pieces at the deadline. Imagine this team with Iginla. Our chances for a deep run would be much better



 

No ones taking on Franzen's contract. Cleary has an NTC. And the rest of those guys don't have much value besides Fil

 

I agree that is extremely unlikely either get traded, but Franzen's contract probably isn't viewed as the problem fans seem to think it is. Its long, but at under 4 million a season the value for what you get is fantastic.

 

Also Cleary had a no trade clause but it expired 30 days before the last trade deadline.



#29 Richdg

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Posted 21 March 2013 - 07:07 PM

People seriously overvalue high draft picks. How many top 5 or top 10 guys from the last 5 years are stars today? Ask Edmonton. No one in this draft will be able to fill Datsyuk's shoes if he leaves after next year. The chance that Seth Jones will be a superstar d-man for the next 20 years is so small that it doesn't make sense to do the kind of risk-taking it would require to have a shot at him.
When Erik Karlsson was drafted, Ottawa fans were furious and though they made an awful pick. You NEVER know.

Keep being competetive, keep finding diamonds in the rough in the draft, keep looking for undrafted players to take a chance on.. build from within, stay classy, stay a model organization that players are likely to want to play for.

You are kidding right? Ok.... lets just look at top 10 picks from the last 5 drafts, and I aqm sure I will miss plenty....

2012:

nail already made it-which is very rare in the first year.

2011:

Nugent-Hopkins

landsekog

larsson

Couturier

hamilton

brodin

2010:

Hall

segin

Skinner

2009:

Taveras

Hedman

Duchene

Kane

Schenn

OEL

kadri

2008:

Stamkos

Doughty

Bogosian

Schenn

 

And many more in later picks. No there is no sure things. or very few. But waiting for lightening to strike for a 4th time is a sure fire way to lose 50 games per year.



#30 frankgrimes

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Posted 21 March 2013 - 07:13 PM

Nice logic and I fully agree here. Being sellers when there aren't a lot of sellers, especially in a shortened season is the right thing to do. Let's face reality here even if the Detroit Red Wings are making the Playoffs, it will not be a deep run so what is the point? Just to get in and bounced out against some western juggernaut team? I'd rather look at the big picture here and say screw the streak, get as many draft picks as possible and finally not having to pin so much hope on high risk high reward picks.

 

I've looked at the list and there are lot of good defenders available in this draft class, if Holland can get a second first rounder for Filpula, I say go for it and draft a shutdown and offensive defenseman in the first round, or use both to move up.

 

But anyways I am starting to dislike this league a lot, enjoyed the pre 2004 days much more and trade deadlines, UFA days actually meant something back then.


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#31 irishock

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Posted 21 March 2013 - 07:22 PM

The streak is just a number. The dominance era has already ended when Lidstrom retired.


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#32 frankgrimes

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Posted 21 March 2013 - 07:24 PM

The streak is just a number. The dominance era has already ended when Lidstrom retired.

 

Sadly for us it ended long before that time, i.e after the last embarrassing Stanley Cup loss...followed by 2 round exits and last years first round fiasco.


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#33 Richdg

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Posted 21 March 2013 - 07:46 PM

Nice logic and I fully agree here. Being sellers when there aren't a lot of sellers, especially in a shortened season is the right thing to do. Let's face reality here even if the Detroit Red Wings are making the Playoffs, it will not be a deep run so what is the point? Just to get in and bounced out against some western juggernaut team? I'd rather look at the big picture here and say screw the streak, get as many draft picks as possible and finally not having to pin so much hope on high risk high reward picks.

 

I've looked at the list and there are lot of good defenders available in this draft class, if Holland can get a second first rounder for Filpula, I say go for it and draft a shutdown and offensive defenseman in the first round, or use both to move up.

 

But anyways I am starting to dislike this league a lot, enjoyed the pre 2004 days much more and trade deadlines, UFA days actually meant something back then.

Picks ys, get as many as possible. I disagree with the need for Dmen though. We have severl good young prospects already. It is at F that we have nothing coming. Now yes if a super drops to us, take him. But we need several big young mobile preferably RH shooting F/C's.



#34 pondrocket

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Posted 21 March 2013 - 08:22 PM

Can't sell off until the new GM is in place.  I hope Jimmy D & Mr. I face the truth and just accept that Holland has jumped the shark & that he has done absolutely nothing for three years that made this team more competative.  I really like JT but our d is so bad it is beyond one or two tweaks.  Pluss the wings move to the east.  Holland blows!



#35 Shaman

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Posted 21 March 2013 - 08:22 PM

Okay, what some people also seem to miss is that the current CBA really is built to reward young teams, With the really favorable ELC rules, veteran teams are not the best way to win in the cap world. Add to this that Gaustad got a first round pick in return (a career fourth liner with decent face off ability) should show you that Cleary, White and Flip could all fetch a first rounder or even more.


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#36 Johnz96

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Posted 21 March 2013 - 08:31 PM

Okay, what some people also seem to miss is that the current CBA really is built to reward young teams, With the really favorable ELC rules, veteran teams are not the best way to win in the cap world. Add to this that Gaustad got a first round pick in return (a career fourth liner with decent face off ability) should show you that Cleary, White and Flip could all fetch a first rounder or even more.

Gaustad's pugilistic ability adds value



#37 FlashyG

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Posted 21 March 2013 - 08:40 PM

Can't sell off until the new GM is in place.  I hope Jimmy D & Mr. I face the truth and just accept that Holland has jumped the shark & that he has done absolutely nothing for three years that made this team more competative.  I really like JT but our d is so bad it is beyond one or two tweaks.  Pluss the wings move to the east.  Holland blows!

 

The chances of the Wings getting a new GM is 0%.

 

Its extremely rare for a GM to be fired before his coach so until Babcock gets the Ax, Holland will be our GM.

 

Even when they do decide to make a change, its more likely Holland gets Promoted to Jimmy D's job, Jimmy D retires and Nill takes over as GM. That probably won't change much as Holland and Nill are both scouts at heart who seem to have the same philosophy of building through the draft and allowing your prospects to develop outside the NHL.

 

Besides not matter who the GM is, the wings won't be "selling off". They might move some of their extra parts but the core won't be going anywhere.



#38 Shaman

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Posted 21 March 2013 - 09:28 PM

Gaustad's pugilistic ability adds value

Yep, it really pushed Nashville over the edge for their first cup... oh wait. The point is, hes not really what one would call a rare player, and he was worth a first.


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#39 evilmrt

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Posted 21 March 2013 - 10:05 PM

If this draft is so deep, someone post some scenarios for 1st and 2nd round picks, along with whatever SANE trades could be made for additional picks. Enough arguing lol

#40 nyqvististhefuture

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Posted 21 March 2013 - 10:07 PM

People seriously overvalue high draft picks. How many top 5 or top 10 guys from the last 5 years are stars today? Ask Edmonton. No one in this draft will be able to fill Datsyuk's shoes if he leaves after next year. The chance that Seth Jones will be a superstar d-man for the next 20 years is so small that it doesn't make sense to do the kind of risk-taking it would require to have a shot at him.
When Erik Karlsson was drafted, Ottawa fans were furious and though they made an awful pick. You NEVER know.

Keep being competetive, keep finding diamonds in the rough in the draft, keep looking for undrafted players to take a chance on.. build from within, stay classy, stay a model organization that players are likely to want to play for.

 

 

ask edmonton??????????? are you like serious right now????? why just because there not going into the playoffs this year you dont think eberle hall hopkins yakupov gagner are or will be stars????

 

thats just nonsense







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