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Franzen: "I am not a goal scorer"


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#121 DeGraa55

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Posted 03 September 2013 - 10:43 PM

You don't think Holland has thought about moving Franzen before, or looking for a replacement?  I would guess he has, just hasn't found the right opportunities/prices.  
 
I agree.
 
Dan Cleary would definitely say, "I'm a goal scorer".  He has that confidence that Franzen severely lacks.




I'm sure he can't find someone dumb enough to take on the contract.

#122 kipwinger

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Posted 03 September 2013 - 10:45 PM

 

This is in no way true. 

 

Even assuming Franzen's standard deviation was much lower and his point production during the regular season is more consistent (I'd have to see the math to see if that's actually true), that has little predictive value in what kind of points he will put up as a 40 year old.   

 

Not to mention, I'm assuming we're talking about regular season because it can't possibly be true of Franzen's playoff performance.

 

 

 

This is in no way true. 

 

Even assuming Franzen's standard deviation was much lower and his point production during the regular season is more consistent (I'd have to see the math to see if that's actually true), that has little predictive value in what kind of points he will put up as a 40 year old.   

 

Not to mention, I'm assuming we're talking about regular season because it can't possibly be true of Franzen's playoff performance.

 

What I'm saying is that if you use the standard deviation as a measure of probability, which scientists the world over do, then it's fairly reasonable to conclude that Franzen at 40 will be closer to his average than Zetterberg at 40 will be to his.  Don't believe me, do the math. 


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#123 F.Michael

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Posted 04 September 2013 - 07:12 AM

Not to beat a dead horse, or Mule for that matter, but it makes ya wonder what Franzen, and his agent were thinking when they negotiated his current contract?

 

Regardless of his cap hit - he's making a hefty sum...By the time his annual salary drops ($3.5 million for the 2016/2017 season) - he'll be lucky to score 15 goals - let alone have the drive to play at the NHL level.

 

I'm hoping his countryman Alfie may have a positive influence on the Mule.



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#124 Opie

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Posted 04 September 2013 - 07:46 AM

 

Moulson is currently a steal, but he will be upcoming on ufa status, and will net at least 5 mil. his cap hit is low because he was an rfa

same with Ladd

I don't know much about kunitz, but based on his numbers, he is a fair value

Ryders goals and points bounce around year to year, and his numbers aren't very consistent anymoore, seems like he has a good year for every 2-3 sub-par ones

Cole has been inconsistent point-wise over the last few years. also seems to be injured a lot.

 

bottom line Franzen puts up 25-30 goals every year, for a $4mil cap hit, which is a great cap hit for what you get. Just because there are others getting similar deals doesn't make his deal somehow worse. Are you saying a $4mil cap hit is too much for a 25+ goal scorer? cause if you are, then something is wrong?

 

.

 

So when he is a 4 mil cap hit scoring 10-15 in a few years is he still worth it?

 

When he is 36/37 will he still be worth the 4 mill cap hit? How about at age 40 or 41?

 

BTW even if he is not playing the Wings are still paying! (EDIT: He will be a cap hit, not actually being paid)

 

That is the problem with this whole he is worth the cap hit logic, but at that point you will probably change your stance to he is worth his paycheck.

 

But that is why the teams went long term like this, it benefits the player (good money, never look for a contract again) and the team (cap circumvention).

 

Franzen will be getting paid 5 mil for the next 3 seasons, when he turns 37 he will be getting paid 3.5, all with a 4 mil cap hit. 

 

---------------------------------------------------------------------

Now back to comparable players, how about Hossa.

 

Roughly $300,000 more on the cap hit and his numbers destroy Franzen's. (EDIT #2 D'oh Hossa's cap hit is roughly 1.3M higher, but still under 6 mil) 

 

Since 08-09 (I used that time frame in my early post:

Goals

Hossa: 135

Mule: 115

 

Assists

Hossa: 152

Mule: 107

 

PPG

Hossa .90

Mule: .76

 

PIMs

Hossa: 149

Mule: 205

 

His salary is nearly identical to Mule's in term and money.

 

I will wait for the reason why Hossa does not meet you narrow requirements for a replacement. Probably too many assists!


Edited by Opie, 04 September 2013 - 08:11 AM.

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“Told him if he wasn't ultra-competitive he couldn't come here. If he didn't bring it every day he couldn't come here, because he was going to hate it if he didn't, dislike the coach and dislike playing here.
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#125 Opie

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Posted 04 September 2013 - 08:09 AM

 

Moulson is currently a steal, but he will be upcoming on ufa status, and will net at least 5 mil. his cap hit is low because he was an rfa

same with Ladd

I don't know much about kunitz, but based on his numbers, he is a fair value

Ryders goals and points bounce around year to year, and his numbers aren't very consistent anymoore, seems like he has a good year for every 2-3 sub-par ones

Cole has been inconsistent point-wise over the last few years. also seems to be injured a lot.

 

bottom line Franzen puts up 25-30 goals every year, for a $4mil cap hit, which is a great cap hit for what you get. Just because there are others getting similar deals doesn't make his deal somehow worse. Are you saying a $4mil cap hit is too much for a 25+ goal scorer? cause if you are, then something is wrong?

 

.

 

Again, your opinion of a player becomes a requirement for comparison, and you always find some reason to say a very comparable player does not count.

 

What if Moulson was offered an 11 year deal (I know new CBA and all), do you know him well enough to know he would not take Franzen's contract?


"The more I know about people - the better I like my dog." - Mark Twain

"A wise man once told me, ‘Don’t argue with fools. Cause people from a distance can’t tell who is who'." Jay Z, Takeover

"When I was looking for a captain, I wanted a guy with the Red Wings crest tattooed on his chest," said former Detroit coach Jacques Demers, who named Yzerman captain in 1986. "Steve Yzerman was that guy."

“Told him if he wasn't ultra-competitive he couldn't come here. If he didn't bring it every day he couldn't come here, because he was going to hate it if he didn't, dislike the coach and dislike playing here.
“It's real straightforward. If you don't do it right, you're not happy here." Babcock

#126 Euro_Twins

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Posted 04 September 2013 - 08:15 AM

 
Again, your opinion of a player becomes a requirement for comparison, and you always find some reason to say a very comparable player does not count.
 
What if Moulson was offered an 11 year deal (I know new CBA and all), do you know him well enough to know he would not take Franzen's contract?


If you could lock him up at a 4 mil cap hit when he hits ufa that would be a great deal. Like I said he is currently a steal

 
So when he is a 4 mil cap hit scoring 10-15 in a few years is he still worth it?
 
When he is 36/37 will he still be worth the 4 mill cap hit? How about at age 40 or 41?
 
BTW even if he is not playing the Wings are still paying! (EDIT: He will be a cap hit, not actually being paid)
 
That is the problem with this whole he is worth the cap hit logic, but at that point you will probably change your stance to he is worth his paycheck.
 
But that is why the teams went long term like this, it benefits the player (good money, never look for a contract again) and the team (cap circumvention).
 
Franzen will be getting paid 5 mil for the next 3 seasons, when he turns 37 he will be getting paid 3.5, all with a 4 mil cap hit. 
 
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Now back to comparable players, how about Hossa.
 
Roughly $300,000 more on the cap hit and his numbers destroy Franzen's. (EDIT #2 D'oh Hossa's cap hit is roughly 1.3M higher, but still under 6 mil) 
 
Since 08-09 (I used that time frame in my early post:
Goals
Hossa: 135
Mule: 115
 
Assists
Hossa: 152
Mule: 107
 
PPG
Hossa .90
Mule: .76
 
PIMs
Hossa: 149
Mule: 205
 
His salary is nearly identical to Mule's in term and money.
 
I will wait for the reason why Hossa does not meet you narrow requirements for a replacement. Probably too many assists!


I didn't read through your whole post as I am at work. Currently franzen is worth his cap hit. In a few years if he is not then we can revisit this, we have no way of knowing how he will play in a few years. His regular season production has not dropped as of yet
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#127 Opie

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Posted 04 September 2013 - 08:23 AM

If you could lock him up at a 4 mil cap hit when he hits ufa that would be a great deal. Like I said he is currently a steal

I didn't read through your whole post as I am at work. Currently franzen is worth his cap hit. In a few years if he is not then we can revisit this, we have no way of knowing how he will play in a few years. His regular season production has not dropped as of yet

 

Yes, agree to disagree!


"The more I know about people - the better I like my dog." - Mark Twain

"A wise man once told me, ‘Don’t argue with fools. Cause people from a distance can’t tell who is who'." Jay Z, Takeover

"When I was looking for a captain, I wanted a guy with the Red Wings crest tattooed on his chest," said former Detroit coach Jacques Demers, who named Yzerman captain in 1986. "Steve Yzerman was that guy."

“Told him if he wasn't ultra-competitive he couldn't come here. If he didn't bring it every day he couldn't come here, because he was going to hate it if he didn't, dislike the coach and dislike playing here.
“It's real straightforward. If you don't do it right, you're not happy here." Babcock

#128 number9

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Posted 04 September 2013 - 08:36 AM

 

You don't think Holland has thought about moving Franzen before, or looking for a replacement?  I would guess he has, just hasn't found the right opportunities/prices.  


 

I agree.

 

Dan Cleary would definitely say, "I'm a goal scorer".  He has that confidence that Franzen severely lacks.  

Source?



#129 MidMichSteve

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Posted 04 September 2013 - 10:16 AM

Source?

How about pics. ;)

 

clearycelebrates_zpscf66219e.jpg


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#130 Z Winged Dangler

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Posted 04 September 2013 - 12:31 PM

The problem is that if Franzen isn't scoring goals, he doesn't bring anything else to the team.  

 

He needs to be more aggressive offensively and always look to shoot first.  That doesn't always seem to be the case.  We've seen him go on streaks where he's as good as anyone in the league at scoring goals.  When he doesn't do it consistently, it appears it's because of him having a lazy work ethic.

 

The converse argument is when people state that he produces at the pay level he's currently at.  I guess that's true.  But that doesn't mean it's OK for a guy to be lazier and underachieve a bit.   

"I am not a goal scorer,” he said. “I am a hockey player. I never look for goals. I look to play good and then people score or I do."

 

I have a hard time believing he'll be more aggressive offensively if he's not really in a mood to "look for goals".
 


This offseason will determine whether Ken Holland should still be employed with the Wings organization.

 

Please put Smith on the Power Play!


#131 Z Winged Dangler

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Posted 04 September 2013 - 12:51 PM

 

these might not be exact fits, but all come very close to the goals or salary criteria. since your numbers are all arbitrary to begin with, i feel the list is valid. it shows that franzen is not some super great contract that absolves him from any criticism:

 

matt moulson

andrew ladd

chris kunitz

michael ryder

erik cole

If we had Andrew Ladd instead of Johan Franzen, we win the Cup next year.  There's a very good reason that Ladd is the captain here in Winnipeg.  His compete level is that of Darren Helm. 


This offseason will determine whether Ken Holland should still be employed with the Wings organization.

 

Please put Smith on the Power Play!


#132 GMRwings1983

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Posted 04 September 2013 - 06:33 PM

How about pics. ;)

 

clearycelebrates_zpscf66219e.jpg

 

Thank you.  Cleary loves to shoot and has confidence.  He just has no talent.  Give him Franzen's skills and we have a great player.


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#133 number9

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Posted 04 September 2013 - 07:53 PM

 
Thank you.  Cleary loves to shoot and has confidence.  He just has no talent.  Give him Franzen's skills and we have a great player.


Except Franzen outshot Cleary 116 to 93 last season and had a higher S% of 12.1 as compared to Cleary's 9.7

And the difference is bigger during regular seasons that arnt 48 games long. The only player that typically out shoots Franzen is Zetterberg. Wouldn't say having a confident shot is the issue at all here.

#134 GoWings1905

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Posted 04 September 2013 - 07:58 PM

Except Franzen outshot Cleary 116 to 93 last season and had a higher S% of 12.1 as compared to Cleary's 9.7

And the difference is bigger during regular seasons that arnt 48 games long. The only player that typically out shoots Franzen is Zetterberg. Wouldn't say having a confident shot is the issue at all here.

 

I have more of a problem where Franzen typically plays on the ice. Cleary did a ton of dirty work in front of the net, which Franzen could do more of with his size. Franzen has ridiculous hands and probably the best wrist shot on the team, but yet he rarely seems to put himself near the slot where he could utilize that strength. The Wings got slightly better as the season progressed, but they still have a knack for generating too much of their offense from the perimeter. 

 

That's why I don't have as much of a gripe with Cleary and Abby. At least they were consistently willing to try and score dirty goals. 


 
 
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#135 GMRwings1983

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Posted 04 September 2013 - 08:02 PM

Except Franzen outshot Cleary 116 to 93 last season and had a higher S% of 12.1 as compared to Cleary's 9.7

And the difference is bigger during regular seasons that arnt 48 games long. The only player that typically out shoots Franzen is Zetterberg. Wouldn't say having a confident shot is the issue at all here.

 

Your stats actually somewhat prove my point.  

 

Franzen didn't play all 48 games, but he should have a much higher SPG ratio than Cleary.  The gap wasn't that high as your stats show, especially when you consider Franzen logging more icetime and more PP minutes, where so many shots come from.  


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#136 number9

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Posted 04 September 2013 - 08:02 PM

 
I have more of a problem where Franzen typically plays on the ice. Cleary did a ton of dirty work in front of the net, which Franzen could do more of with his size. Franzen has ridiculous hands and probably the best wrist shot on the team, but yet he rarely seems to put himself near the slot where he could utilize that strength. The Wings got slightly better as the season progressed, but they still have a knack for generating too much of their offense from the perimeter. 
 
That's why I don't have as much of a gripe with Cleary and Abby. At least they were consistently willing to try and score dirty goals. 


Can't argue there. Cleary was our poor mans homer replacement. Though I'm of the opinion that Abby has no place in the top 6.

Franzen just isn't physically aggressive enough to play that role it seems

#137 number9

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Posted 04 September 2013 - 08:09 PM

 
Your stats actually somewhat prove my point.  
 
Franzen didn't play all 48 games, but he should have a much higher SPG ratio than Cleary.  The gap wasn't that high as your stats show, especially when you consider Franzen logging more icetime and more PP minutes, where so many shots come from.  


Ok look at 2011-12. Cleary averaged 1.44 TOI less than Franzen. Cleary had a S% of 6 and Franzen had 13.7. Again, the only one to outshoot the Mule was Z and they were both Clearly our most dominant shooters. Confidence in shot is not the issue here.

#138 GoWings1905

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Posted 04 September 2013 - 08:38 PM

Can't argue there. Cleary was our poor mans homer replacement. Though I'm of the opinion that Abby has no place in the top 6.

Franzen just isn't physically aggressive enough to play that role it seems

 

Completely agree. I don't really believe Abby belongs in the top-six either. It was practically through default he came into that role last season and was pretty effective at the dirty work. I don't think that is the ideal place for him either -- not enough offensive upside and he's better at forechecking hard and hitting people on the third line with Helm. With the additions of Alfredsson and Weiss, plus potentially more minutes for Nyquist/Tatar, the Wings should be able to slide Abby into a more appropriate spot. 


 
 
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#139 Euro_Twins

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Posted 04 September 2013 - 09:13 PM

Ok look at 2011-12. Cleary averaged 1.44 TOI less than Franzen. Cleary had a S% of 6 and Franzen had 13.7. Again, the only one to outshoot the Mule was Z and they were both Clearly our most dominant shooters. Confidence in shot is not the issue here.


No one is arguing that franzen has a better shot, I get what your saying but obviously Cleary isn't nearly as talented and won't have the same scoring percentage
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#140 Rivalred

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Posted 09 September 2013 - 07:22 PM

Less pressure Mule has on him the better he plays?
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