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Son of a Wing

Blues Re-sign Steen 3 Years 17.4m

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ST. LOUIS - Blues forward Alexander Steen has agreed to a three-year, $17.4 million contract extension.

Steen leads the Blues in goals (22) and points (36) this season. He is tied for second among all NHL players with 22 goals.

Steen was acquired by the Blues in a trade with the Toronto Maple Leafs on Nov. 24, 2008.

There goes my hopes.....

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Way too much money for Steen imo. He's a solid player but he's playing out of his mind right now, and I find it hard to believe he can even come close to a repeat season like the one he is having. He's worthy of $3.5 - $4.0 max but close to 6 mil per is nuts.

Clarkson is a perfect example, had an out of character season last year, got overpaid, and he's back to being his mediocre self with 6 points in 24 games and coming off his 2nd suspension this season already.

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Way too much money for Steen imo. He's a solid player but he's playing out of his mind right now, and I find it hard to believe he can even come close to a repeat season like the one he is having. He's worthy of $3.5 - $4.0 max but close to 6 mil per is nuts.

Clarkson is a perfect example, had an out of character season last year, got overpaid, and he's back to being his mediocre self with 6 points in 24 games and coming off his 2nd suspension this season already.

I don't think that's a fair comparison at all. Steen has always been known for his offensive talents and has nearly double the amount of points of Clarkson while being the same age.

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It's more the comparison of playing at a higher level than to be expected. Right now Steen is on pace for a 90 point season, which will not happen. Any season prior he's put up the most of 50 points, which is more about the level he is at as a player. Clarkson won't produce offensively again like he had for the contract he was paid, and Steen will never reach a 70+ point season beyond this one if he does hit that mark.

Comparing the two last year, Clarkson and Steen were separated by only 3 points, which in a full season would have been 6 points. I know they are very different style of players, but the contracts that were given to both were based around their highest career level of play that likely won't be matched again.

I could be wrong, but I think Steen is a career 50-60 point per season max player as Clarkson is a career 30-40 point per season player. Steen is essentially making one million less per season now as Datsyuk and he is nowhere near the same level of player. Again, just my opinion, but I think it's an overpayment.

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It's more the comparison of playing at a higher level than to be expected. Right now Steen is on pace for a 90 point season, which will not happen. Any season prior he's put up the most of 50 points, which is more about the level he is at as a player. Clarkson won't produce offensively again like he had for the contract he was paid, and Steen will never reach a 70+ point season beyond this one if he does hit that mark.

Comparing the two last year, Clarkson and Steen were separated by only 3 points, which in a full season would have been 6 points. I know they are very different style of players, but the contracts that were given to both were based around their highest career level of play that likely won't be matched again.

I could be wrong, but I think Steen is a career 50-60 point per season max player as Clarkson is a career 30-40 point per season player. Steen is essentially making one million less per season now as Datsyuk and he is nowhere near the same level of player. Again, just my opinion, but I think it's an overpayment.

I understand where you're coming from but I do think a 50-60 point guy is worth about the 5.5m mark with the cap rising.

He will actually be much closer to 2 mil less than Datsyuk. Considering Steen is just entering his prime and Datsyuk is past his I'd say it's completely fair.

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Short-term contract. That might be the most interesting part of this. Could we be returning to normal contracts instead of these 10 and 15 year ones? That could really help the Wings. I think teams are finding that a lot of these long-term contracts are albatrosses most of the time.

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I don't think that's a fair comparison at all. Steen has always been known for his offensive talents and has nearly double the amount of points of Clarkson while being the same age.

its not about comparing the two as players. clarkson signed a contract coming off a career year he was unlikely to repeat. he got inflated value meaning the contract has a high probability of hurting the team. the steen contract appears to be the same scenario. we see it all the time with guys having big years before signing a contract. recognizing these scenarios and not overpaying is key to being a good gm and putting together a good team. buy low, sell high, right?

Short-term contract. That might be the most interesting part of this. Could we be returning to normal contracts instead of these 10 and 15 year ones? That could really help the Wings. I think teams are finding that a lot of these long-term contracts are albatrosses most of the time.

with the new cba, max contract is 7 for FA and 8 for re-signing a player, correct?

either way, 3 years is still very short compared to what we normally see.

perhaps its the first sign that gm's are finally going to have to be smart now that the cba closed so many of the loopholes that allowed bad contracts to disappear?

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its not about comparing the two as players. clarkson signed a contract coming off a career year he was unlikely to repeat. he got inflated value meaning the contract has a high probability of hurting the team. the steen contract appears to be the same scenario. we see it all the time with guys having big years before signing a contract. recognizing these scenarios and not overpaying is key to being a good gm and putting together a good team. buy low, sell high, right?

Right, but I don't see how this contract is inflated at all. Especially with the cap rising as much as it's supposed to. He's a .6 points/game and just entering his prime.

If you guys think this contract is inflated then I look forward to your reactions to this and next off-seasons.

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Um, come again now?

Whatchu talkin' 'bout, Willis?

Considering Steen is just entering his prime and Datsyuk is past his I'd say it's completely fair.

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Right, but I don't see how this contract is inflated at all. Especially with the cap rising as much as it's supposed to. He's a .6 points/game and just entering his prime.

If you guys think this contract is inflated then I look forward to your reactions to this and next off-seasons.

you do realize steen is 29 right? statistically speaking forwards score the most in their early 20's. stats wise he is similar to filppula. and i dont think anyone around here would have wanted flip for 5.8 a year.... just seems like a high cap hit for someone that has never had more than 51 points in a season...

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you do realize steen is 29 right? statistically speaking forwards score the most in their early 20's. stats wise he is similar to filppula. and i dont think anyone around here would have wanted flip for 5.8 a year.... just seems like a high cap hit for someone that has never had more than 51 points in a season...

Prime - to my understanding - is 24 - 27 (not a hard and fast rule obviously) .

If you look at his on pace numbers to compensate for the unfortunate injuries we, as wings fans, are all acutely aware of, he looks to be a pretty reliable 50-70 pt guy a season if healthy. I'd say that's decently fair, thou not a steal.

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Prime - to my understanding - is 24 - 27 (not a hard and fast rule obviously) .

If you look at his on pace numbers to compensate for the unfortunate injuries we, as wings fans, are all acutely aware of, he looks to be a pretty reliable 50-70 pt guy a season if healthy. I'd say that's decently fair, thou not a steal.

I would agree with that. Even if it's a bit on the highend side Steen is a steady 50 - 70 pts guy with the rising cap and his team needing all the offense they can get, the deal is fair for both sides. Hopefully this doesn't leave them with enough internal budget money to sign Backes.

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I would agree with that. Even if it's a bit on the highend side Steen is a steady 50 - 70 pts guy with the rising cap and his team needing all the offense they can get, the deal is fair for both sides. Hopefully this doesn't leave them with enough internal budget money to sign Backes.

Backes is one of those guys that's so hard to find. I think he's just as unique as Datsyuk and Zetterberg. A guy that can score at that level and at the same time play with that level of physicality is a gem.

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Backes is one of those guys that's so hard to find. I think he's just as unique as Datsyuk and Zetterberg. A guy that can score at that level and at the same time play with that level of physicality is a gem.

The guy reminds me of a young Bertuzzi (before the Moore thing), he is the definition of a powerforward wouldn't surprise me at all if the olympic team would make him their captain.

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The guy reminds me of a young Bertuzzi (before the Moore thing), he is the definition of a powerforward wouldn't surprise me at all if the olympic team would make him their captain.

Wouldn't surprise me either. That's good ol fashioned red blooded, blue collar American hockey.

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I understand where you're coming from but I do think a 50-60 point guy is worth about the 5.5m mark with the cap rising.

Yep. Look at all the mid-tier guys signed for $5-6M in the summer. People are going to have to start adjusting their concept of what is "fair". The likes of Stamkos, Toews and Kane are going to be getting ~$10M a year 8 year contracts in a couple of seasons time.

Interesting that this is only a 3 year contract, definately bucks the trend.

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Way too much money for Steen imo. He's a solid player but he's playing out of his mind right now, and I find it hard to believe he can even come close to a repeat season like the one he is having. He's worthy of $3.5 - $4.0 max but close to 6 mil per is nuts.

Clarkson is a perfect example, had an out of character season last year, got overpaid, and he's back to being his mediocre self with 6 points in 24 games and coming off his 2nd suspension this season already.

Agreed - was gonna use the Clarkson contract as an example as well...Unlike Clarkson - Steen's is only 3 years.

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Prime - to my understanding - is 24 - 27 (not a hard and fast rule obviously) .

If you look at his on pace numbers to compensate for the unfortunate injuries we, as wings fans, are all acutely aware of, he looks to be a pretty reliable 50-70 pt guy a season if healthy. I'd say that's decently fair, thou not a steal.

I would agree with that. Even if it's a bit on the highend side Steen is a steady 50 - 70 pts guy with the rising cap and his team needing all the offense they can get, the deal is fair for both sides. Hopefully this doesn't leave them with enough internal budget money to sign Backes.

c'mon. he has a career best 51 points. thats not consistent 50-70 points....

and he is already at the age his point totals will decline on average. there are many articles that look at the subject, but i like this one from several years back:

http://www.hockeybuzz.com/blog.php?post_id=8663

Looking at the graph it appears that the average star player breaks out at age 23, suffers a slight decline at 24/25 and reaches his peak again at 26. From there the averages decline consistently (with a couple small exceptions) from year-to-year.

At 29 the decline starts to become much more dramatic. An average 30-year old who is signed to a five-year deal coming off a thirty goal season is suddenly a 20-22 goal scorer in the final three years of that deal.

(emphasis added)

overall its not a terrible jeff finger type contract. but i still feel its a bad value, and its the type of contract that will lead to more bad contracts. other players and agents will now use it as a comparable and that will push salaries up even more.

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c'mon. he has a career best 51 points. thats not consistent 50-70 points....

and he is already at the age his point totals will decline on average. there are many articles that look at the subject, but i like this one from several years back:

http://www.hockeybuzz.com/blog.php?post_id=8663

That might be a relevant analysis if it was done in the current era. Not with players such as Howe, Esposito and Beliveau. lol

Edited by Son of a Wing

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That might be a relevant analysis if it was done in the current era. Not with players such as Howe, Esposito and Beliveau. lol

it doesnt make a difference. i ran the numbers of the top 30 scorers since 2000. it includes young guys like crosby and ovechkin and some retired guys like sakic and kovalev.

when you average the points they scored per season based on age, it peaks at age 27. steens contract will take him from age 30-32 roughly. if you look at the numbers for those ages, they are about 10% lower than the peak at age 30 and about 20% lower than the peak for age 32.

so considering that steens peak performance was a 51 point season, then we can project that he will get 40-45 points each season.

i will post a graph and numbers later. i wasted enough time compiling it all...

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it doesnt make a difference. i ran the numbers of the top 30 scorers since 2000. it includes young guys like crosby and ovechkin and some retired guys like sakic and kovalev.

when you average the points they scored per season based on age, it peaks at age 27. steens contract will take him from age 30-32 roughly. if you look at the numbers for those ages, they are about 10% lower than the peak at age 30 and about 20% lower than the peak for age 32.

so considering that steens peak performance was a 51 point season, then we can project that he will get 40-45 points each season.

i will post a graph and numbers later. i wasted enough time compiling it all...

Sure if you ignore that players do peak at different stages in their careers and just average them all out. Players are a case-by-case study. Peaks range widely. Just ask Tim Thomas.

But this discussion is about Steen and I think it's obvious he's peaking now. Thus a three year deal is great for both sides.

I don't think St Louis fears a 10-20% dropoff. lol

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its not obvious he is peaking now. its obvious he is having an anomaly. and that next year he will be back to being the same player he has been every other year of his career. its funny how i provide actual data to back up my opinion and you just keep dismissing it. besides the only reason i even provided the data or linked to the article that said the same thing is that you erroneously tried to imply his age was where he should be peaking.

steen is performing this year at a ppg more than 50% higher than any other season he has ever had. additionally his shooting percentage is twice his lifetime average. those sort of numbers are not sustainable over a large sample size. he is on a hot streak, plain and simple. if you sign players based on hot streaks then your team will never be any good as your money will be locked up in underperforming players.

we cant predict the future. but what we can do is use the information we have to make the best possible decisions. when doing that you give yourself a good chance of being right most of the time. if you just blindly guess and are correct, thats called being lucky. using information to make informed decisions is called being smart.

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1.its not obvious he is peaking now. its obvious he is having an anomaly. and that next year he will be back to being the same player he has been every other year of his career. 2.its funny how i provide actual data to back up my opinion and you just keep dismissing it. 3.besides the only reason i even provided the data or linked to the article that said the same thing is that you erroneously tried to imply his age was where he should be peaking.

steen is performing this year at a ppg more than 50% higher than any other season he has ever had. additionally his shooting percentage is twice his lifetime average. those sort of numbers are not sustainable over a large sample size. he is on a hot streak, plain and simple. 4.if you sign players based on hot streaks then your team will never be any good as your money will be locked up in underperforming players.

5.we cant predict the future. but what we can do is use the information we have to make the best possible decisions. when doing that you give yourself a good chance of being right most of the time. if you just blindly guess and are correct, thats called being lucky. using information to make informed decisions is called being smart.

1. So what is peaking if not the best year of your career?

2. You brought up career average numbers of guys like Howe, Beliveau and Esposito to somehow prove it is all decline for Steen for the rest of his career. Love to hear how that's relevant to Steen.

3. The difference between 27 and 29 is not as great as you think. lol

4. But Steen is not being compensated as a point per game player. lol His contract is very in line with what his career average is.

5. Yup.

Again, it's a short term deal at what the going rate for a 50 point guy will be for the next few years. Whether it's his peak or not it's a very fair deal for everyone. Don't see what the big deal is.

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