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Where has NHL scoring gone?


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#1 toby91_ca

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Posted 12 March 2014 - 01:30 PM

So, I was just looking at the current scoring leaders and, projecting everyone to the end of the year based on current ppg pace, Crosby wins the scoring title by 20pts.  That part isn't that surprising has he has been producing a much higher ppg than everyone else for the last several years, the surprising part is how many points #2 will have.  Crosby is projected to get 111 points and Getzlaf is projected at 91 points.  Everyone else is sub 90pts.

 

What if Crosby was hurt again this year?  Getzlaf is gauranteed to break 90....could we have seen the first sub 90 point Art Ross winner since the original 6 era when they played 70 games or less?

 

I had a look at the scoring leaders from 1968-69 (year in which number of games increased to 78) to present.  In those 44 years (not including this year), there have only be 5 times in which the leading scoring has had sub 100 points....2 of those years were lockout years, so they would be greater than 100 in a regular year.  So, out of 44 years, only 3 sub 100 (96pts in 2000, 96pts in 2002 and 94pts in 2004).  Those are the years that the NHL was looking hard at figuring out how to fix the lack of scoring.  Now, fast forward to the current year....without Crosby, there could potentially be someone winning the scoring title with less than 90pts.

 

I haven't heard much about lack of scoring lately, but is it a concern?  Does anybody care?  Personally, I like scoring, but I don't mind a 2-1 game either...just depends on how you get to the 2-1 final score.  If there are lots of scoring chances and great goaltending, that's fine, but if it is because of smothering defense....I'm not a fan. 



#2 TheDetroitRedWings

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Posted 12 March 2014 - 01:47 PM

How is Getzlaf projected to get more points than Phil Kessel who currently has 2 more points than Getzlaf does?


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#3 TheDetroitRedWings

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Posted 12 March 2014 - 01:52 PM

Was never a big fan of "projections" and more often than not, projections end up being inaccurate.


Edited by TheDetroitRedWings, 12 March 2014 - 01:53 PM.

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#4 toby91_ca

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Posted 12 March 2014 - 02:02 PM

How is Getzlaf projected to get more points than Phil Kessel who currently has 2 more points than Getzlaf does?

Anahiem has 17 games remaining and Toronto has 15 games remaining.  Kessel has also played in 6 mores games than Getzlaf.  While Kessel has 2 more points currently, my simple projections have him at 89pts and Getzlaf at 91pts.  I kept the projection simple and didn't assume Getzlaf would miss x% of the remaining games since he's currently missed x% of the first 65 games.


Was never a big fan of "projections" and more often than not, projections end up being inaccurate.

Don't get me wrong....I totally agree, but the smaller the projection period, the closer you can get to something that makes sense.  We're looking at about 15 games to go for everyone (give or take), with more than 80% of the season already in the books.  So, I don't mind doing a bit of a projection.

 

While I don't see any possibility of Crosby not winning, unless he gets injured, someone could get hot and push 95+ points contrary to current projection.

 

Generally not a fan of projecting though....which is why I haven't spent much time looking at it until now (standings included).



#5 SDavis35

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Posted 12 March 2014 - 02:52 PM

I'm sure some of it has to do with the defensive style of the game taking over. It seems that the teams who have the best defense are the one who win. You have the occasional anomaly (Pittsburgh, who's been consistently good) but for the most part, Defense is what wins.  The other major factor I can think of is parity. We certainly have blowout games, but not as often I don't think. 

 

Minor factors could probably include the skill of goaltenders these days, it's tough to beat them one-on-one, and with the size of the defensive players (along with the defensive-minded game) you just have no space to move or get a good shot unless the other team makes a mistake. I'm sure in 20 years we will have teams finding ways to break the trap and other defensive styles, but for now it is what it is. I don't mind a 2-1 game, but I can't enjoy a game where the shots are only 25-21. (which doesn't seem to happen the past 2-3 years, more like 35-28)  



#6 Richdg

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Posted 12 March 2014 - 03:00 PM

many factors.

1.Fewer shooters

2. Bigger and better G's

3. Bigger and better Dmen

4. Outgrown the size of the ice

5. More grabbing, less fighting



#7 frankgrimes

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Posted 12 March 2014 - 04:04 PM

Keep in mind Stamkos has been hurt for a long period of time, he was the only one who really could give Crosby a run forh is money. Other than that I really don't care that much, I think 2:1 games are more exciting than tones of goals because then goals aren't as important as in tight games.


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#8 Internet.Unknown

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Posted 12 March 2014 - 04:21 PM

I haven't heard much about lack of scoring lately, but is it a concern?  Does anybody care?  Personally, I like scoring, but I don't mind a 2-1 game either...just depends on how you get to the 2-1 final score.  If there are lots of scoring chances and great goaltending, that's fine, but if it is because of smothering defense....I'm not a fan. 

 

I often wonder about this too. It seems the league has been trying to increase offense but the desired result hasn't materialized. In recent years, the 2-line pass has been eliminated. Goalie pads have decreased in size. The mid-90's clutch and grab has been reduced to almost NBA-style penalty calling. OT is now four-on-four. All this should lead to more scoring.

 

It's not.

 

Consider that Gretzky scored over 200 points in a season multiple times. Now the scoring leader could score about only half of that. Crazy! Nowhere else is the old adage about not comparing different eras more true than in the NHL.



#9 Son of a Wing

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Posted 12 March 2014 - 04:31 PM

Scoring is down a bit but it's not as drastic as you might think...

 

League's Goals For/Game Average

 

13/14 - 2.68

12/13 - 2.75

11/12 - 2.72

10/11 - 2.73


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#10 dropkickshanahans

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Posted 12 March 2014 - 05:30 PM

My theory for the low scoring is the modern butterfly style dominating the league, as well as lots of those goalies being bigger now, or at least playing aggressive enough to look bigger.

 

Had to do some quick research and it looks like there were only a few goalies back then that implemented dropping to the knees in some situations, with only a couple goalies throughout the years actually using the style as a main like Tony Esposito and later Patrick Roy. It seemed to me that there was a bigger transition somewhere in the '90s/early 2000s where current pros switched to a hybrid or came into the league with some type of hybrid playstyle, where now today the butterfly style is dominant across the league.

 

I wonder how much scoring would be achieved back then if goalies had better masks and the butterfly was more popular; It seemed that a lot of goals back then that you can find on youtube were low-- between and around the skates.



#11 cusimano_brothers

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Posted 13 March 2014 - 07:22 PM

Fun Fact: fourteen percent of games played in the League this season have been decided in the shootout. 


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#12 GMRwings1983

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Posted 13 March 2014 - 09:47 PM

Scoring became a problem when butterfly goalies started taking over.

 

It won't change as long as they're schooled so well.  The bigger pads and equipment help also, but it's mostly the schooling and training from an early age at that position.  

 

I say force all the goalies to play stand-up style again.


Edited by GMRwings1983, 13 March 2014 - 09:47 PM.

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#13 Euro_Twins

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Posted 14 March 2014 - 07:01 AM

Scoring became a problem when butterfly goalies started taking over.
 
It won't change as long as they're schooled so well.  The bigger pads and equipment help also, but it's mostly the schooling and training from an early age at that position.  
 
I say force all the goalies to play stand-up style again.


Couple things, pads have gotten smaller the last couple seasons. And you can't force goalies to play stand up style just so you can increase scoring in the league. A goalies job is to keep the puck out of the net as best as he can, that would be like telling one of your employees he works too efficiently and you want him to take short naps throughout the day from now on.

#14 GMRwings1983

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Posted 14 March 2014 - 08:01 PM

Couple things, pads have gotten smaller the last couple seasons. And you can't force goalies to play stand up style just so you can increase scoring in the league. A goalies job is to keep the puck out of the net as best as he can, that would be like telling one of your employees he works too efficiently and you want him to take short naps throughout the day from now on.

 

I know.  I'm just saying what I'd like to see in fantasy land.  


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#15 Nev

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Posted 15 March 2014 - 04:54 AM

many factors.

1.Fewer shooters

2. Bigger and better G's

3. Bigger and better Dmen

4. Outgrown the size of the ice

5. More grabbing, less fighting

 

All these things, especially (2).

 

But you have to include coaching too.  Almost all teams are coached to play a defence first style.  Stopping the opposition scoring is now considered more important than scoring yourself, hence the rise of the 2-way point-per-game star, a la Datsyuk, Zetterberg, Toews etc.  The bare minimum is that you be at least average defensively.  Guys like Ovechkin who don't care about defence are becoming rarer and rarer.


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