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kipwinger

Blown Leads

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I'm glad we're in a playoff position and lord knows I'd like to kick back and feel good about the fact that our team is playing decently well, but sadly I can't. Yesterday we left another point on the table after leading 2 to nothing in the first. In a race this tight we can't afford to give points away, but we blow leads every game.

It's Babs' stated goal to get early leads and then lock down defensively. As such, this shouldn't be happening. So, the topic for discussion is...why? Let's talk about problems, and let's talk about solutions. And for the love of god can this thread not devolve into a "Player X sucks" discussion, because surely we can all agree that if an entire team strategy is failing there are more issues than one or two players.

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The fact that we are missing our two best defensive forwards in Pasha and Z plays a big role in that. With Smitty looking good last night I wouldn't be surprised to see Kronner-Smitty then Big E-Dekeyser when Big E gets healthy. Those two pairs would be a heck of a lot better than having Quincey in the top 4.

Also it doesn't help that we have so many AHL guys on he roster. Kids make mistakes we just have to hope they are learning from them and get better.

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The fact that we are missing our two best defensive forwards in Pasha and Z plays a big role in that. With Smitty looking good last night I wouldn't be surprised to see Kronner-Smitty then Big E-Dekeyser when Big E gets healthy. Those two pairs would be a heck of a lot better than having Quincey in the top 4.

Also it doesn't help that we have so many AHL guys on he roster. Kids make mistakes we just have to hope they are learning from them and get better.

Re: the kids. It's my understanding that part of the reason we're playing this type of system (e.g. the New Jersey Devils' special) is specifically because we've got so many injuries and kids in the lineup. Babs is always saying that we have to win this way because our team isn't like it used to be and we can't outscore anyone anymore. It's supposed to be the way to compete when you're not as skilled as everyone else.

Yet it seems like when we get the lead and try to play that game we struggle, give up the lead, and when we win it's only because we somehow manage to score our way out of the jam.

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Wings were completely outplayed yesterday in every category but hits I think. Howard was great but our defense was terrible Wings managed only 16 shots on goal, and 4 goals somehow. To me this was one of the worst team games Wings have had in a while, I was shocked they went up 2-0 in the first while being completely outplayed by the Wild. The amount of turn overs, weak passes, and at times standing around looking dumbfounded was incredible. I don't recall a game where they looked so confused and not together.

Did Babs alter the lines? I saw Anderson playing with Gus and Tater. Did bringing in Anderson and Helm break chemistry and slow things down with 2 players who aren't firing on all cylinders?

The top lines passing was also terrible, Alfi, Mule and Legwand couldn't get anything going.

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1. Inexperieced, young D

2. Lacking another top 2 D-man

3. It's the league's will. If they had their way, no one would hold a third period lead and every game would go to a shootout. For dramatic effect. I'd like to see a breakdown of penalty calls in the third period in favour of the team that's trailing.

4. Overall lack of either (a) mobile puck moving D like Chicago or (b) physical bone-crushing D like Boston. Our team is too easliy victimized when a big group of forwards open the forechecking floodgates in the 3rd. And every team knows that that's what you do

5.Psychology: Other teams know that we blow leads and we know that we blow leads. Good for their confidence coming out of the 2nd period intermission, and bad for ours.

Edited by rick zombo

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I think the Wings' best defense has been when the puck isn't in their own zone. Consequently I'm not all that surprised when they grab a lead and then trap and collapse into their own zone, that the opposition scores.

I know it goes against conventional wisdom, but I would like to see a heavier forecheck in the third and try to keep the puck 200 feet away from Jimmy. I get that harder forechecking can lead to odd man rushes, especially toward the end of the game when the losing team is taking risks to get a goal, but the Red Wings, based on their current make up and point in development, don't have the tools to withstand another team when they're hemmed into their own zone and the pressure is on. That much has been made apparent. Let's see if we can relieve the defensive zone stress by increasing the offensive zone pressure. The worst thing that can happen is the other team scores, and we're back to where we started.

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I think the Wings' best defense has been when the puck isn't in their own zone. Consequently I'm not all that surprised when they grab a lead and then trap and collapse into their own zone, that the opposition scores.

I know it goes against conventional wisdom, but I would like to see a heavier forecheck in the third and try to keep the puck 200 feet away from Jimmy. I get that harder forechecking can lead to odd man rushes, especially toward the end of the game when the losing team is taking risks to get a goal, but the Red Wings, based on their current make up and point in development, don't have the tools to withstand another team when they're hemmed into their own zone and the pressure is on. That much has been made apparent. Let's see if we can relieve the defensive zone stress by increasing the offensive zone pressure. The worst thing that can happen is the other team scores, and we're back to where we started.

This is interesting because you're right, conventional wisdom does suggest that we do what we're currently doing, but the result is that we blow leads over and over and over. I guess the question is, does changing the strategy result in few blown leads or more?

Or, put another way, are we so bad defensively that this is the best we can do and any change in strategy will only make the problem worse?

That would suggest that it's not the strategy but the particular players who make the difference between holding a lead and losing it. But we've had this problem all season (even when we were relatively healthy). A whole lot of those shootouts and overtimes we lost early were blown leads.

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I think the Wings' best defense has been when the puck isn't in their own zone. Consequently I'm not all that surprised when they grab a lead and then trap and collapse into their own zone, that the opposition scores.

I know it goes against conventional wisdom, but I would like to see a heavier forecheck in the third and try to keep the puck 200 feet away from Jimmy. I get that harder forechecking can lead to odd man rushes, especially toward the end of the game when the losing team is taking risks to get a goal, but the Red Wings, based on their current make up and point in development, don't have the tools to withstand another team when they're hemmed into their own zone and the pressure is on. That much has been made apparent. Let's see if we can relieve the defensive zone stress by increasing the offensive zone pressure. The worst thing that can happen is the other team scores, and we're back to where we started.

Agree, I've been thinking this for a while. We get the lead, become passive and try to chip the puck to center for the remaining 40 minutes and consequently become overwhelmed. I think we have to start trying to keep our foot on the pedal and go for extending the lead rather than be content winning 2-1 or 1-0. Our defense isn't good enough to expect low scoring goals against all the time. And the kids are obviously capable of scoring.

Edited by Wheelchairsuperhero

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First line was gassed and was very apparent. No offensive pressure and close to a liability on Defense. Goose and Howard's clutch ness put us in a position we didn't necessarily deserve. Some bad calls or else we steal this game.

To take some good from it atleast we didn't get terribly outshot and outplayed and win the game and think that effort will get us through Columbus. The team knows it has to be better

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To think Alfie hit the post yesterday or else we were up 3-0... funny how something like that almost always ends up coming back to bite you. I even thought after the post that boy that is usually not a good sign.

Another thing I thought of is, going back the past few season, almost every time the Wings play on NBC the game goes into OT or shootout.

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A two goal lead really isn't much in hockey. If you start play defense too early and the opposition still scores a goal they are within one. You know they will give it their all to tie the game. It is the nature of the game. This team must learn to close the game by capitalizing on their chances before they can go on defense.

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I agree with some of what you guys are saying, but not others. First of all I think it's a bad idea to focus only on yesterday's game and think "well they played back to back and clearly gassed" because it obscures the fact that this has been a recurring problem all season. I do agree that a two goal lead isn't much and certainly isn't safe, but it's the frequency by which we give up leads that worrisome. Lots of teams give up two goal leads, but most teams don't do it as frequently as we do. Finally, I completely disagree with the idea that "this is what happens when you've got a bunch of kids in the lineup" for two reasons. First, the kids are playing better hockey (even defensively) than many of the vets. Secondly, we've mostly had our regulars in on defense, so it's not like we're blowing leads because Almquist, Quellet, or Marchenko are playing regularly.

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Quite simply, it's lack of sustained offensive pressure. It's easy to blame the defense when the puck is in our own zone for over half the game. I've noticed, time after time, the Wings will gain the blue line, get the puck in the corner, and then lose a battle along the boards. Getting one or two weak shots on goal and then losing the puck for over a minute is not the way to keep a lead. That said, the PP looks better than it has for most of the season, largely due to new guys getting chances and the kids' energy.

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19-3-7 when leading after 1

21-3-7 when leading after 2

These stats seem deceptive, compared to the rest of the league, that's 25th and 29th in the league. Obviously we are getting points when we grab the lead, but just watching the games you know we're losing our lead and forced to fight for the full 60. Good for development, but definitely would like to feel comfortable in the 3rd like we did back in 2008. I do think it's just the players we have right now being put through a learning curve that is fairly steep. I think we've done better in the second half of the season, but I don't have the stats for that (maybe someone else can find them?)

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Well one thing that hurt us before Jan. Was jimmy giving up too many easy goals costing us to blow leads. Since around Jan 1st, jimmy has been much more consistent and is thus able to help the team hold onto leads more, such as Saturday against the wild and Tuesday last week against the leafs.

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19-3-7 when leading after 1

21-3-7 when leading after 2

These stats seem deceptive, compared to the rest of the league, that's 25th and 29th in the league. Obviously we are getting points when we grab the lead, but just watching the games you know we're losing our lead and forced to fight for the full 60. Good for development, but definitely would like to feel comfortable in the 3rd like we did back in 2008. I do think it's just the players we have right now being put through a learning curve that is fairly steep. I think we've done better in the second half of the season, but I don't have the stats for that (maybe someone else can find them?)

Wow one out of three games that the Wings have been leading going into the final period they've ended up losing. I didn't realize it was that substantial.

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It's because Smith isn't on the Power Play... Just kidding.

My reasons:

1. Babs philosophy has been a hindrance all year, we get a couple early and then drop into a defensive posture; but the problem is that the team defense this season is a mess. That's the reason why the PP has been struggling to tack on goals, the inability to turn it back on offensively after shutting the offense down and going into a defensive mode. Plus once the opposing team pushes for a goal late, we don't have the d-men to push back.

2. The team has a tendency to get flustered after giving up a goal. They score several goals, and feel good about themselves; when all of a sudden WHAM! The porous defense gives up a goal, and then you see the shoulders drop as does the concentration level causing more goals to follow. After it happens in several games, it becomes a mental obstacle that the Wings haven't been able to overcome. This issue mainly might exist because we have a young team, but that doesn't excuse the veterans who have been guilty of it too. The Wings essentially put themselves into a position where Babs should call a TO after every first goal given up just to calm his team down, so things don't continue to spiral.

3. This reason is tenuous at best, but we have to acknowledge the fact that luck has also played a part in some these collapses. Taking yesterday's game as an example: The wings hit 3 posts in the span, of what; 3 minutes? Sometimes you get lucky as was the case in the Pens game, and sometimes you get unlucky as was the case in yesterday's game. And sometimes if you get 12 shots in 63 minutes of play, and generally look s***ty, no amount of luck will save you.

4. I've been a big Howard fan for years but he has got to be more consistent. He's been unbelievable lately by making huge stops on extremely difficult plays, some of his stops yesterday were amazing, but as good as he's looked on the difficult saves his issues have always come on easy shots. Whether it be poor positioning or lack of concentration, Howard has had the tendency for years to give up soft goals. I don't think I've ever seen someone look so good on a difficult shot and look so bad on an easy shot from the corner.

Promise I'm almost done.

5. Shot blocking: this has been an issue since Stuart left and an area the team has to improve on.

But, hey this is IMHO so feel free to disagree.

Edited by wings87

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It is inexperience in our lineup when the opposing turns it up another gear when losing. It leads to the young players on the Wings making mistakes. This is what happens when you have 12 players on your team that was in the AHL last season.

On top of that, blown leads in today's league is nothing new. It is happening across the league with manufactured parity and situational officiating. A lot of people has blamed coaching during the season, which I think is silly. The system the team is playing is what's giving them the best chance to win every night. There might be 3 or 4 coaches in this league that can have this team in the situation it is is right now. In the end, coaching can only do so much to prevent mistakes. The rest of it comes down to experience, and it is great that we have a dozen or so players getting loads of it.

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We turn the puck over so much, I don't go by stats because they rarely chart it correctly. But just watching the Wings play you see the turnovers, way too often the D have time to get it out of the zone and instead turn it over and it stays in and the opposing team gets a cycle going leading to a scoring chance, penalty or goal. Sometimes I wish we'd just simplify and put it off the glass and out, chip and chase. With so many kids, and our team speed being pretty darn good right now, it'd favor us to go against the puck possession game a little bit when leading in the 3rd. It doesn't always have to be pretty.

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