• Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

Sign in to follow this  
Followers 0
number9

Wings Advanced Puck Possession Stats

Rate this topic

21 posts in this topic

So I saw a Leafs fan do this, and for them all of their fighters ended up at the bottom of the list, so I thought it might actually be a semi decent metric and wanted to see how the Wings lined up.

Corsi F% is basically an advance stats proxy for puck possession. (Shots + shots missed the net + shots blocked for your team and the others while a player is on the ice)

The Leafs fan did Corsi F%, minus Corsi F% of linemates, plus the Corsi F% of opposition. So basically it's CF% adjusted for the strength of competition and strength of linemates.

Here's the numbers for the Wings during regular season 5x5 play:

  1. Tatar 0.563 - 0.500 + 0.496 = .559
  2. Datsyuk 0.561 - 0.500 + 0.494 = .555
  3. Nyquist 0.546 - 0.510 + 0.501 = .537
  4. Sheahan 0.561 - 0.522 + 0.494 = .533
  5. Jurco 0.558 - 0.524 + 0.494 = .528
  6. Zetterberg 0.532 - 0.517 + 0.508 = .523
  7. Helm 0.531 - 0.508 + 0.492 = .515
  8. Legwand 0.496 - 0.492 + 0.501 = .505
  9. Alfredsson 0.513 - 0.511 + 0.495 = .497
  10. Franzen 0.511 - 0.514 + 0.500 = .497
  11. Samuelsson 0.505 - 0.505 + 0.497 = .497
  12. Emmerton 0.502 - 0.505 + 0.498 = .495
  13. Abdelkader 0.508 - 0.518 + 0.503 = .493
  14. Andersson 0.500 - 0.515 + 0.495 = .480
  15. Miller 0.489 - 0.510 + 0.494 = .473
  16. Bertuzzi 0.496 - 0.524 + 0.497 = .469
  17. Cleary 0.473 - 0.512 + 0.499 = .460
  18. Glendening 0.462 - 0.518 + 0.495 = .439
  19. Weiss 0.420 - 0.520 + 0.505 = .405

I was glad to see all the kids right up there with Datsyuk and Zetterberg. A testament to how well they've worked in our puck possession system so far. Defensive players like Abdelkader, Miller, Andersson, and Glendening ranked low, which didn't surprise me bc most don't have the offensive ability to possess the puck a lot. Not surprisingly either is how low Weiss, Cleary, and Bertuzzi are, all guys that should have shown more offense.

These numbers are far from 100% reflective of puck possession skill, but if we were to go off them a puck possession team should ice this forward lineup next year:

Tatar - Datsyuk - Nyquist

Zetterberg - Sheahan - Jurco

Legwand - Helm - Alfredsson/Franzen

Abdelkader - Andersson - Alfredsson/Franzen

I think most would agree with that lineup or some variation of it. We also have Weiss who's numbers could be much better next year.

Thoughts on the calculations or results? It's very moneyballish so take it for what it's worth

Edited by number9
Dave and redwingmachine like this

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

That better not be our lineup next year, or we can gear up for another first round exit.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

That better not be our lineup next year, or we can gear up for another first round exit.

I'd like to see what a healthy z and Weiss will do next year. Especially since z is feeling better then he has in years

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'd like to see what a healthy z and Weiss will do next year. Especially since z is feeling better then he has in years

Where do you get that idea from? Guy missed almost the entire 2nd half of the season. Did he say something about feeling better than he ever has?

At this point, based on recent history, I expect us to have injury troubles again next season. There's something wrong with the way this team trains or prepares themselves in conditioning/practice. Can't just chalk it up to bad luck every year.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Where do you get that idea from? Guy missed almost the entire 2nd half of the season. Did he say something about feeling better than he ever has?

At this point, based on recent history, I expect us to have injury troubles again next season. There's something wrong with the way this team trains or prepares themselves in conditioning/practice. Can't just chalk it up to bad luck every year.

I have this same fear, that one year is a fluke, three years is a pattern. There is no way anyone can seriously believe this team as it stands will not be top 5 next season in man games lost next season.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Where do you get that idea from? Guy missed almost the entire 2nd half of the season. Did he say something about feeling better than he ever has?

At this point, based on recent history, I expect us to have injury troubles again next season. There's something wrong with the way this team trains or prepares themselves in conditioning/practice. Can't just chalk it up to bad luck every year.

He actually said it multiple times how he felt like a weight had been lifted from his shoulders for the first time in, blahblahblah

He said multiple variations of, even pregame on Fsd.

Euro_Twins likes this

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

He actually said it multiple times how he felt like a weight had been lifted from his shoulders for the first time in, blahblahblah

He said multiple variations of, even pregame on Fsd.

This. I doubt have the exact quote link handy but z has said multiple times that he is feeling great. He wasn't at %100 yet when he came back to play, plus he wasn't playing for so long. He will be better then this year, guaranteed

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Also, Quincey had the same surgery and said he felt like a new man. Zetterberg is healthier than he's been in four or five years. I expect a career year out of him.

But we do need to get more durable.

Sent from my ADR6350 using Tapatalk 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Also, Quincey had the same surgery and said he felt like a new man. Zetterberg is healthier than he's been in four or five years. I expect a career year out of him. But we do need to get more durable. Sent from my ADR6350 using Tapatalk 2

No way he has a career year. His career year he had 43 goals and 92 points. At this point I would be happy with 70 points with 30 goals and 40 assists.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

No way he has a career year. His career year he had 43 goals and 92 points. At this point I would be happy with 70 points with 30 goals and 40 assists.

He did have 48 in 45 this year. It wouldn't be unreasonable to expect 80+ next year

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Cool stat, number9. I think it is a good measure of pressure/puck possession. The top of your list appears to have all the guys who force the play into the opponents end. The bottom of the list has the guys who chase in our own end. One guy who is hard to figure out is Helm. He should be near the top, you would think. He possesses the puck for minutes at a time by himself! Guess he just doesnt generate the shots/missed shots the others do. Do your stats take into account time on ice and are they divided by minutes played to get a per minute number so the players are measured on an equal basis?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Cool stat, number9. I think it is a good measure of pressure/puck possession. The top of your list appears to have all the guys who force the play into the opponents end. The bottom of the list has the guys who chase in our own end. One guy who is hard to figure out is Helm. He should be near the top, you would think. He possesses the puck for minutes at a time by himself! Guess he just doesnt generate the shots/missed shots the others do. Do your stats take into account time on ice and are they divided by minutes played to get a per minute number so the players are measured on an equal basis?

helm spends a lot of time on the pk too, that could affect his stats. Still #7 for a guy who isn't known for his offensive prowess is pretty good

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

helm spends a lot of time on the pk too, that could affect his stats. Still #7 for a guy who isn't known for his offensive prowess is pretty good

True. And the guys ahead are pretty damn good.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

helm spends a lot of time on the pk too, that could affect his stats. Still #7 for a guy who isn't known for his offensive prowess is pretty good

As it says in the OP the numbers are only for 5x5 play

Cool stat, number9. I think it is a good measure of pressure/puck possession. The top of your list appears to have all the guys who force the play into the opponents end. The bottom of the list has the guys who chase in our own end. One guy who is hard to figure out is Helm. He should be near the top, you would think. He possesses the puck for minutes at a time by himself! Guess he just doesnt generate the shots/missed shots the others do. Do your stats take into account time on ice and are they divided by minutes played to get a per minute number so the players are measured on an equal basis?

Nope. It's total ice time played

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Interesting, but means little if you don't put the puck in the net, and keep the other team from doing the same. Things we have struggled with for several years.

How many times the past 4-5 seasons have we been on the PP and found ourselves screaming at the TV "shoot the puck". happens all the time. But the possession numbers look great.

The thing about puck possession is how do you use it. are you running it as a defensive system or an offensive one. yes if your team has the puck/ball/ etc.... the other team in theory doesn't have it and can't score. But if you have the puck 60% of the time and fail to score, while the other team scores 3 with their 40%, you loose.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

As it says in the OP the numbers are only for 5x5 play

Nope. It's total ice time played

Didn't see that. Still not bad for a guy with hands of stone that doesn't shoot a lot. I'd be curious to see how pur top players rank against other top players in the league

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Didn't see that. Still not bad for a guy with hands of stone that doesn't shoot a lot. I'd be curious to see how pur top players rank against other top players in the league

Obviously I don't have the time to run the numbers league wide, but it seems that Bergeron, Kopitar, Toews have the best possession stats league wide.

Not surprisingly those 3 are also up for the Selke

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Obviously I don't have the time to run the numbers league wide, but it seems that Bergeron, Kopitar, Toews have the best possession stats league wide.

Not surprisingly those 3 are also up for the Selke

No one has that kind of time. I was just wondering what the difference between the top few players and our top players was

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

No one has that kind of time. I was just wondering what the difference between the top few players and our top players was

Datsyuk is usually among the league leaders. It's kinda cool that Tatar did better than him

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Interesting, but means little if you don't put the puck in the net, and keep the other team from doing the same. Things we have struggled with for several years.

How many times the past 4-5 seasons have we been on the PP and found ourselves screaming at the TV "shoot the puck". happens all the time. But the possession numbers look great.

The thing about puck possession is how do you use it. are you running it as a defensive system or an offensive one. yes if your team has the puck/ball/ etc.... the other team in theory doesn't have it and can't score. But if you have the puck 60% of the time and fail to score, while the other team scores 3 with their 40%, you loose.

Well, then the team in question has trouble finishing, not unlike the Blues or Kings. On the other end of the spectrum, you have a team like the Leafs or Avalanche - ugly possession numbers, but they can put the puck in the net. So, what general possession stats tell us, then, is that possession isnt the be-all and end-all indicator of a team's offensive output. But no one's ever said otherwise, so no real controversy here.

The aforementioned Kings are a really interesting story right now. When they went down 3-0 to the Sharks, some people in the fancy stats community simply rejected reality. "Nope, impossible. This isn't how it ends. The Avs are going to lose in the first round because they're a wretched possession team and the Kings are going to go deep because they're a phenomenal possession team. I don't know how it's going to happen, but the universe is going to course-correct and the Kings are going to awaken from their slumber of suck and be awesome." (Sort of the opposite of the Leafs.)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!


Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.


Sign In Now
Sign in to follow this  
Followers 0