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Wings Advanced Puck Possession Stats


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#1 number9

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Posted 06 May 2014 - 12:58 PM

So I saw a Leafs fan do this, and for them all of their fighters ended up at the bottom of the list, so I thought it might actually be a semi decent metric and wanted to see how the Wings lined up.

 

Corsi F% is basically an advance stats proxy for puck possession. (Shots + shots missed the net + shots blocked for your team and the others while a player is on the ice)

 

The Leafs fan did Corsi F%, minus Corsi F% of linemates, plus the Corsi F% of opposition. So basically it's CF% adjusted for the strength of competition and strength of linemates.

 

Here's the numbers for the Wings during regular season 5x5 play:

 

  1. Tatar 0.563 - 0.500 + 0.496 = .559
  2. Datsyuk 0.561 - 0.500 + 0.494 = .555
  3. Nyquist 0.546 - 0.510 + 0.501 = .537
  4. Sheahan 0.561 - 0.522 + 0.494 = .533
  5. Jurco 0.558 - 0.524 + 0.494 = .528
  6. Zetterberg 0.532 - 0.517 + 0.508 = .523
  7. Helm 0.531 - 0.508 + 0.492 = .515
  8. Legwand 0.496 - 0.492 + 0.501 = .505
  9. Alfredsson 0.513 - 0.511 + 0.495 = .497
  10. Franzen 0.511 - 0.514 + 0.500 = .497
  11. Samuelsson 0.505 - 0.505 + 0.497 = .497
  12. Emmerton 0.502 - 0.505 + 0.498 = .495
  13. Abdelkader 0.508 - 0.518 + 0.503 = .493
  14. Andersson 0.500 - 0.515 + 0.495 = .480
  15. Miller 0.489 - 0.510 + 0.494 = .473
  16. Bertuzzi 0.496 - 0.524 + 0.497 = .469
  17. Cleary 0.473 - 0.512 + 0.499 = .460
  18. Glendening 0.462 - 0.518 + 0.495 = .439
  19. Weiss 0.420 - 0.520 + 0.505 = .405

 

I was glad to see all the kids right up there with Datsyuk and Zetterberg. A testament to how well they've worked in our puck possession system so far. Defensive players like Abdelkader, Miller, Andersson, and Glendening ranked low, which didn't surprise me bc most don't have the offensive ability to possess the puck a lot. Not surprisingly either is how low Weiss, Cleary, and Bertuzzi are, all guys that should have shown more offense.

 

These numbers are far from 100% reflective of puck possession skill, but if we were to go off them a puck possession team should ice this forward lineup next year:

 

Tatar - Datsyuk - Nyquist

Zetterberg - Sheahan - Jurco

Legwand - Helm - Alfredsson/Franzen

Abdelkader - Andersson - Alfredsson/Franzen

 

I think most would agree with that lineup or some variation of it. We also have Weiss who's numbers could be much better next year.

 

Thoughts on the calculations or results? It's very moneyballish so take it for what it's worth


Edited by number9, 06 May 2014 - 12:59 PM.


#2 GMRwings1983

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Posted 06 May 2014 - 01:08 PM

That better not be our lineup next year, or we can gear up for another first round exit.  


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#3 Euro_Twins

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Posted 06 May 2014 - 01:09 PM

That better not be our lineup next year, or we can gear up for another first round exit.  


I'd like to see what a healthy z and Weiss will do next year. Especially since z is feeling better then he has in years

#4 GMRwings1983

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Posted 06 May 2014 - 01:13 PM

I'd like to see what a healthy z and Weiss will do next year. Especially since z is feeling better then he has in years

 

Where do you get that idea from?  Guy missed almost the entire 2nd half of the season.  Did he say something about feeling better than he ever has?  

 

At this point, based on recent history, I expect us to have injury troubles again next season.  There's something wrong with the way this team trains or prepares themselves in conditioning/practice.  Can't just chalk it up to bad luck every year.  


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#5 Shaman

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Posted 06 May 2014 - 02:15 PM

 

Where do you get that idea from?  Guy missed almost the entire 2nd half of the season.  Did he say something about feeling better than he ever has?  

 

At this point, based on recent history, I expect us to have injury troubles again next season.  There's something wrong with the way this team trains or prepares themselves in conditioning/practice.  Can't just chalk it up to bad luck every year.  

 

I have this same fear, that one year is a fluke, three years is a pattern. There is no way anyone can seriously believe this team as it stands will not be top 5 next season in man games lost next season.


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#6 jimmyemeryhunter

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Posted 06 May 2014 - 02:16 PM

 
Where do you get that idea from?  Guy missed almost the entire 2nd half of the season.  Did he say something about feeling better than he ever has?  
 
At this point, based on recent history, I expect us to have injury troubles again next season.  There's something wrong with the way this team trains or prepares themselves in conditioning/practice.  Can't just chalk it up to bad luck every year.  


He actually said it multiple times how he felt like a weight had been lifted from his shoulders for the first time in, blahblahblah
He said multiple variations of, even pregame on Fsd.

#7 Euro_Twins

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Posted 06 May 2014 - 03:17 PM

He actually said it multiple times how he felt like a weight had been lifted from his shoulders for the first time in, blahblahblah
He said multiple variations of, even pregame on Fsd.


This. I doubt have the exact quote link handy but z has said multiple times that he is feeling great. He wasn't at %100 yet when he came back to play, plus he wasn't playing for so long. He will be better then this year, guaranteed

#8 VM1138

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Posted 06 May 2014 - 03:36 PM

Also, Quincey had the same surgery and said he felt like a new man. Zetterberg is healthier than he's been in four or five years. I expect a career year out of him. But we do need to get more durable. Sent from my ADR6350 using Tapatalk 2
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#9 Shaman

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Posted 06 May 2014 - 04:26 PM

Also, Quincey had the same surgery and said he felt like a new man. Zetterberg is healthier than he's been in four or five years. I expect a career year out of him. But we do need to get more durable. Sent from my ADR6350 using Tapatalk 2

 

No way he has a career year. His career year he had 43 goals and 92 points. At this point I would be happy with 70 points with 30 goals and 40 assists.


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#10 wingsfan4795

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Posted 06 May 2014 - 04:39 PM

 
No way he has a career year. His career year he had 43 goals and 92 points. At this point I would be happy with 70 points with 30 goals and 40 assists.

He did have 48 in 45 this year. It wouldn't be unreasonable to expect 80+ next year

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#11 Rivalred

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Posted 06 May 2014 - 04:41 PM

Think I would just want a healthy Z for an entire year
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#12 Furled Brow

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Posted 06 May 2014 - 05:16 PM

Cool stat, number9. I think it is a good measure of pressure/puck possession. The top of your list appears to have all the guys who force the play into the opponents end. The bottom of the list has the guys who chase in our own end. One guy who is hard to figure out is Helm. He should be near the top, you would think. He possesses the puck for minutes at a time by himself! Guess he just doesnt generate the shots/missed shots the others do. Do your stats take into account time on ice and are they divided by minutes played to get a per minute number so the players are measured on an equal basis?

#13 Euro_Twins

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Posted 06 May 2014 - 05:21 PM

Cool stat, number9. I think it is a good measure of pressure/puck possession. The top of your list appears to have all the guys who force the play into the opponents end. The bottom of the list has the guys who chase in our own end. One guy who is hard to figure out is Helm. He should be near the top, you would think. He possesses the puck for minutes at a time by himself! Guess he just doesnt generate the shots/missed shots the others do. Do your stats take into account time on ice and are they divided by minutes played to get a per minute number so the players are measured on an equal basis?

 

helm spends a lot of time on the pk too, that could affect his stats. Still #7 for a guy who isn't known for his offensive prowess is pretty good



#14 Furled Brow

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Posted 06 May 2014 - 05:34 PM

 
helm spends a lot of time on the pk too, that could affect his stats. Still #7 for a guy who isn't known for his offensive prowess is pretty good


True. And the guys ahead are pretty damn good.

#15 number9

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Posted 07 May 2014 - 01:17 PM

 
helm spends a lot of time on the pk too, that could affect his stats. Still #7 for a guy who isn't known for his offensive prowess is pretty good


As it says in the OP the numbers are only for 5x5 play

Cool stat, number9. I think it is a good measure of pressure/puck possession. The top of your list appears to have all the guys who force the play into the opponents end. The bottom of the list has the guys who chase in our own end. One guy who is hard to figure out is Helm. He should be near the top, you would think. He possesses the puck for minutes at a time by himself! Guess he just doesnt generate the shots/missed shots the others do. Do your stats take into account time on ice and are they divided by minutes played to get a per minute number so the players are measured on an equal basis?


Nope. It's total ice time played

#16 Richdg

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Posted 07 May 2014 - 02:27 PM

Interesting, but means little if you don't put the puck in the net, and keep the other team from doing the same. Things we have struggled with for several years.

How many times the past 4-5 seasons have we been on the PP and found ourselves screaming at the TV "shoot the puck". happens all the time. But the possession numbers look great.

The thing about puck possession is how do you use it. are you running it as a defensive system or an offensive one. yes if your team has the puck/ball/ etc.... the other team in theory doesn't have it and can't score. But if you have the puck 60% of the time and fail to score, while the other team scores 3 with their 40%, you loose.



#17 Euro_Twins

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Posted 07 May 2014 - 03:32 PM

As it says in the OP the numbers are only for 5x5 play

Nope. It's total ice time played


Didn't see that. Still not bad for a guy with hands of stone that doesn't shoot a lot. I'd be curious to see how pur top players rank against other top players in the league

#18 number9

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Posted 07 May 2014 - 03:41 PM

Didn't see that. Still not bad for a guy with hands of stone that doesn't shoot a lot. I'd be curious to see how pur top players rank against other top players in the league


Obviously I don't have the time to run the numbers league wide, but it seems that Bergeron, Kopitar, Toews have the best possession stats league wide.

Not surprisingly those 3 are also up for the Selke

#19 Euro_Twins

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Posted 07 May 2014 - 04:15 PM

Obviously I don't have the time to run the numbers league wide, but it seems that Bergeron, Kopitar, Toews have the best possession stats league wide.

Not surprisingly those 3 are also up for the Selke


No one has that kind of time. I was just wondering what the difference between the top few players and our top players was

#20 number9

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Posted 07 May 2014 - 06:13 PM

No one has that kind of time. I was just wondering what the difference between the top few players and our top players was


Datsyuk is usually among the league leaders. It's kinda cool that Tatar did better than him





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