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Hindsight Drafting (2005-2012)


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#1 Nevermind

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Posted 17 May 2014 - 12:08 AM

I'm sure there have been threads like this before. But I was working on a comprehensive list the other day, and thought some here might want to see it. Overall, we're certainly an above-average team at the draft. And it seems like a lot of recent picks are turning out to be NHL-level prospects.

 

Beneath our draft picks are arguably comparable or better players with an NHL pedigree. Red indicates a bust pick. Green indicates a perfect pick. It's still too early for the recent draft years (as such, the drafts from 2009 onwards have some question marks and might miss players who will make it to the show later on after more development.)

 

Draft Year (# of NHL players produced / # of players drafted)

 

 

2005 (3/9)

 

19. Jakub Kindl

22. Tuukka Rask

24. T.J. Oshie

25. Andrew Cogliano

28. Matt Niskanen

29. Steve Downie

33. James Neal

35. Marc-Edouard Vlasic

41. Ondrej Pavelec

 

42. Justin Abdelkader

44. Paul Stastny

51. Mason Raymond

62. Kristopher Letang

67. Kris Russell

72. Jonathan Quick

79. Cody Franson

 

80. Cristofer Lofberg

84. Mark Fraser

85. Ben Bishop

96. Chris Butler

101. Jared Boll

 

103. Mattias Ritola

105. Keith Yandle

106. Vladimir Sobotka

107. Tom Pyatt

108. Niklas Hjalmarsson

112. Alex Stalock

 

132. Darren Helm

 

137. Johan Ryno

142. Nathan Gerbe

 

152. Jeff May

155. Mark Fayne

156. Ryan Reaves

 

175. Juho Mielonen

181. Tim Kennedy

190. Matt D'Agostini

195. Joe Vitale

200. Sergei Kostitsyn

204. Colin Greening

 

214. Bretton Stamler

216. Anton Stralman

230. Patrick Hornqvist

 

 

2006 (2/7)

 

41. Cory Emmerton

44. Nikolai Kulemin

45. Jeff Petry

46. Jhonas Enroth

 

47. Shawn Matthias

50. Milan Lucic

54. Artem Anisimov

57. Mike Weber

 

62. **** Axelsson

63. Jamie McBain

66. Ryan White

68. Eric Gryba

69. Steve Mason

71. Brad Marchand

74. Jeff Zatkoff

75. Theo Peckham

85. Tom Sestito

 

92. Daniel Larsson

99. James Reimer

106. Reto Berra

112. Matt Beleskey

120. Richard Bachman

125. Chad Johnson

160. Andrew MacDonald

161. Victor Stahlberg

177. Mathieu Perreault

 

182. Jan Mursak

189. Derek Dorsett

 

191. Nick Oslund

196. Benn Ferriero

211. Erik Condra

 

212. Logan Pyett

 

 

2007 (2/5)

 

27. Brendan Smith

43. P.K. Subban

58. Nick Spaling

61. Wayne Simmonds

79. Nick Palmieri

 

88. Joakim Andersson

95. Alec Martinez

109. Dwight King

112. Colton Sceviour

129. Jamie Benn

141. Jake Muzzin

 

148. Randy Cameron 

160. Anthony Peluso

161. Patrick Maroon  

168. Carl Hagelin

172. Luke Gazdic

173. Nick Bonino

 

178. Zack Torquato

179. Paul Byron

194. Carl Gunnarsson

201. Justin Bruan

 

208. Bryan Rufenach

 

 

2008 (1/6)

 

30. Thomas McCollum

31. Jacob Markstrom

32. Slava Voynov

34. Jake Allen

38. Roman Josi

42. Patrick Wiercioch

43. Justin Schultz

45. Zac Dalpe

51. Derek Stepan

53. Travis Hamonic

55. Marco Scandella

60. Jimmy Hayes

69. Michael Stone

79. Zack Smith

82. Adam Henrique

 

91. Max Nicastro

93. Braden Holtby

96. Matt Donovan

111. Dale Weise

114. T.J. Brodie

117. James Wright

127. Matt Calvert

148. Matt Martin

 

121. Gustav Nyquist

 

151. Julien Cayer

152. Mark Barberio

156. Jared Spurgeon

157. Cam Atkinston
169. Ben Smith

177. Tommy Wingels

178. Zac Rinaldo

 

181. Stephen Johnston

186. Jason Demers

190. Matt Bartkowski

207. Anders Lindback

 

211. Jesper Samuelsson

 

 

2009 (1+/7)

 

2. Landon Ferraro ???

33. Ryan O'Reilly

34. Carl Klingberg

35. Kyle Clifford

38. Alex Chiasson

39. Jakob Silfverberg

44. Drew Shore

45. Jeremy Morin

46. Robin Lehner

52. Richard Panik

54. Eric Gelinas

59. Brandon Pirri

 

60. Tomas Tatar ???

64. Tyson Barrie

69. Reilly Smith

 

75. Andrej Nestrasil ???

84. Nicolas Deslauriers

85. Cody Eakin

 

90. Gleason Fournier

92. Casaey Cizikas

93. David Savard

98. Craig Smith

104. Marcus Foligno

106. Sami Vatanen

127. Roman Horak

132. Gabriel Borque

149. Marcus Kruger

 

150. Nick Jensen ???

161. Darcy Kuemper

 

180. Mitch Callahan ???

182. Erik Haula

186. Jordan Nolan

 

210. Adam Almqvist ???

 

 

2010 (2+/7)

 

21. Riley Sheahan ???

23. Mark Pysyk

24. Kevin Hayes

26. Evgeny Kuznestsov

28. Charlie Coyle

29. Emersom Etem

30. Brock Nelson

37. Justin Faulk

38. Jon Merill

42. Devante Smith-Pelly

47. Tyler Toffoli

 

51. Calle Jarnkrok ???

66. Radko Gudas

71. Michael Bournival

 

81. Louis-Marc Auby

90. Joakim Nordstrom

 

111. Teemu Pulkkinen ???

135. Justin Florek

 

141. Petr Mrazek ???

147. Brendan Gallagher

 

171. Brooks Macek

181. Frederik Andersen

 

201. Ben Marshall

 

 

2011 (2+/9)

 

35. Tomas Jurco ???

37. Boone Jenner

39. John Gibson

41. Dmitrij Jaskin

43. Brandon Saad

44. Matt Nieto

 

48. Xavier Ouellet ???

 

55. Ryan Sproul ???

58. Nikita Kucherov

 

85. Alan Quine

87. Jonathan Racine

 

115. Marek Tvrdon ???

 

145. Philippe Hudon ???

 

146. Mattias Backman ???

 

175. Richard Nedomlel ???

 

205. Alexei Marchenko ???

208. Ondrej Palat


Edited by Nevermind, 17 May 2014 - 12:13 AM.


#2 PumpkinEscobar

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Posted 17 May 2014 - 02:37 PM

Ben Marshall is playing good minutes on 1 of the top teams in college hockey...can't really label him a bust yet

#3 hooon

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Posted 17 May 2014 - 02:42 PM

Every other team passed on every one of those players too at some point in these drafts, it isn't unique to the Wings.

 

Its easy to look at drafts in hindsight and think how much better the Wings would look, but when compared to all the other teams and considering their draft position the past 20+ years, its hard to make an argument for any other team having a better track record than the Wings when it comes to drafting (and developing).


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#4 toby91_ca

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Posted 17 May 2014 - 02:50 PM

I wouldn't call anyone drafted at 100th or greater really a bust, if they make the NHL, it would be the exception.



#5 rick zombo

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Posted 17 May 2014 - 03:13 PM

I'm sure there have been threads like this before. But I was working on a comprehensive list the other day, and thought some here might want to see it. Overall, we're certainly an above-average team at the draft. And it seems like a lot of recent picks are turning out to be NHL-level prospects.

 

 

 

1. First off, great for you, taking the time to make this list. Very comprehensive.

2. I absolutely hate lists like this. What if, 20/20 hindsight, etc etc.

3. Overall, we’ve been one of the, if not the best drafting team in the league over this time period. There is support for this statement out there, I just don’t have time to find the link. So, waaaaay above-average. 


"In Detroit, every day is a good day to win"

#6 Ekmanc

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Posted 17 May 2014 - 03:47 PM

First impression is that we really draft a metric s*** ton of Swedes. 

 

Second **** Axelsson :P


Edited by Ekmanc, 17 May 2014 - 03:47 PM.


#7 DickieDunn

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Posted 17 May 2014 - 05:37 PM

Not that anyone has done this yet, but I kind of laugh when people bring up how other teams are built through the draft, then you look at their top players and they're almost all drafted in the top 10.  Then you look at Detroit.  Their top few scorers other than Alfredsson were drafted 121, 210, 97, 60, and 171 overall, their top 3 D 29, 291, and undrafted, and their starting goalie was taken 64th.  That's one player of their top 9 players taken in the first round.  The Pens, on the other hand, have gotten almost nobody outside of the top 5 in the last dozen years.


Oh this young man has had a very trying rookie season, with the litigation, the notoriety, his subsequent deportation to Canada and that country's refusal to accept him, well, I guess that's more than most 21-year-olds can handle... Ogie Ogilthorpe!


#8 Richdg

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Posted 17 May 2014 - 07:50 PM

The draft is always a crap shoot. About 63% of 1st round picks make it, about 1/3 of 2nd rounders, and about 10% of all other rounds make it. There are 23 players on a roster. Over a 15 year period the best teams might have 15 draftees that turn out. This has been true in both hockey and baseball forever.

Even now, we are all excited about our prospects in the system. But history tells us 2/3's will not make it.



#9 Euro_Twins

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Posted 17 May 2014 - 08:29 PM

The draft is always a crap shoot. About 63% of 1st round picks make it, about 1/3 of 2nd rounders, and about 10% of all other rounds make it. There are 23 players on a roster. Over a 15 year period the best teams might have 15 draftees that turn out. This has been true in both hockey and baseball forever.
Even now, we are all excited about our prospects in the system. But history tells us 2/3's will not make it.


There's over 700 players in the nhl, by your calculation there should only be at most 450 players in the nhl right now , I understand the point you were making, but in reality about 2-3 draft picks each year will turn into nhl players, some years you won't get any and some years you'll get 4 or 5 but on average 2-3 a year per team will turn out.

Also yes we've missed some good players but 28 other teams missed those guys too, and they've missed out on our 5/6/7 round star picks too. We've been very good at drafting players.

#10 Echolalia

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Posted 17 May 2014 - 11:54 PM

There is so much luck that goes into drafting, especially after the first round, it's hard to fault anyone for picks that don't turn out. But could you imagine if the Wings had picked the cream of the crop for each round? Imagine if Detroit walked out of the 2005 draft with TJ Oshie, Jonathan Quick, Jared Boll, Keith Yandle, Darren Helm, Nathan Gerbe, Ryan Reeves, Sergei Kostitsyn, and Anton Stralman.

#11 DickieDunn

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Posted 18 May 2014 - 08:26 AM

There is so much luck that goes into drafting, especially after the first round, it's hard to fault anyone for picks that don't turn out. But could you imagine if the Wings had picked the cream of the crop for each round? Imagine if Detroit walked out of the 2005 draft with TJ Oshie, Jonathan Quick, Jared Boll, Keith Yandle, Darren Helm, Nathan Gerbe, Ryan Reeves, Sergei Kostitsyn, and Anton Stralman.

 

 

I'd look almost like some of their drafts from the 80's.  89 they got Sillinger, Boughner, Fedorov, Lidstrom, Drake, and Konstantinov.  83 they got Yzerman, Probert, Klima, Kocur, and Grimson.  In 81 7 o their 8 draftees played 9-+ games in the NHL.


Oh this young man has had a very trying rookie season, with the litigation, the notoriety, his subsequent deportation to Canada and that country's refusal to accept him, well, I guess that's more than most 21-year-olds can handle... Ogie Ogilthorpe!


#12 FifeHockeyNut

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Posted 18 May 2014 - 09:48 AM

Great list, little unfair to call Bryan Rufenach a bust pick though.

#13 Mckinley25

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Posted 18 May 2014 - 10:19 AM

Great list, little unfair to call Bryan Rufenach a bust pick though.


Because he was the last pick? Or did something happen to him? (I'm just curious, don't know anything about him.)

#14 rick zombo

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Posted 18 May 2014 - 11:22 AM

Because he was the last pick? Or did something happen to him? (I'm just curious, don't know anything about him.)


He died. I'd say that's why that statement was made.
"In Detroit, every day is a good day to win"

#15 Ekmanc

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Posted 18 May 2014 - 12:00 PM

**** Axelsson was great tonight against Canada in the WC, it really is too bad that he doesn't have the determination and work ethic to become a full time NHL player cause he's fairly big and has great talent with supersmooth hands.


Edited by Ekmanc, 18 May 2014 - 12:00 PM.


#16 Mckinley25

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Posted 18 May 2014 - 12:20 PM

He died. I'd say that's why that statement was made.


I didn't know that, that's sad.

#17 sputman

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Posted 18 May 2014 - 01:08 PM

 

148. Randy Cameron 

160. Anthony Peluso

161. Patrick Maroon  

168. Carl Hagelin

172. Luke Gazdic

173. Nick Bonino

 

 

I can honestly say that this is the first time I've ever heard of Randy Cameron.


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#18 Detroit # 1 Fan

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Posted 18 May 2014 - 04:12 PM

Interesting list. Hindsight is 20/20, but man. To think we could've had a Yandle or Subban waiting in the wings for when Nick retired would've really been something. Just shows how big a crap shoot the draft can be.


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#19 Richdg

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Posted 18 May 2014 - 06:42 PM

DD, you have to remember 2 things about our drafts in the 80's, 1. there were a lot fewer teams, 2. We were taking risks on guys from behind the iron curtain that NOBODY else wanted to take.

 

As for draft success rate, now those are correct. The thngs not included are: lots of undafted players and guys that have played longer than 15 years, which was the random cutoff I used. Do a google search on it if you wish, but the success rate of guys drafted, thatplay 200+ games in the NHL is about 2/3's for the 1st round, 1/3 for the second, and 1 out of 10 for all remaining rounds. That has been the results since 1990 until now.



#20 GoalieManPat

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Posted 24 May 2014 - 08:05 AM

 

1. First off, great for you, taking the time to make this list. Very comprehensive.

2. I absolutely hate lists like this. What if, 20/20 hindsight, etc etc.

3. Overall, we’ve been one of the, if not the best drafting team in the league over this time period. There is support for this statement out there, I just don’t have time to find the link. So, waaaaay above-average. 

 

I wouldnt say theyve been the best drafting team. Above average is the best you can give them. The Wings havent drafted anyone that has developed into elite talent in 15 years since Hank in 99. The kids the last couple years have potential but until they show they can produce consistantly in the NHL they are running along the lines of previous picks.







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