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2014 Offseason League Signings and Trades


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#1701 toby91_ca

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Posted Yesterday, 02:13 PM

I really don't get the people shaking their heads at COL in terms of dealing with O'Reilly.  Yes, he's coming off a career year, but that career year is nothing compared to the consistent years that the players earning the money he wants put up.

 

At first, I didn't understand at all how he could even have been making $6.5M, but then I remembered the offer sheet...that's how he got there to begin with.  So I decided to do a bit of checking.  I had a look at all the other players in the league with cap hits at or greater than $6.5M (he's now looking for $6.75M by the way, but my guess is that is to aim a bit high and let it come down a bit).  This is what I found:

 

26 forwards in the league at that level:

 

16 - have scored 40 or more goals or 100 or more points

4 - have scored 90 or more points

3 - have scored 80 or more points

 

That leaves the following 4 that haven't scored 40 goals or more than 80pts:

 

Toews - he has scored 34 goals and 76 pts, but I don't think we need to use stats to say that you can't compare to Toews

 

Bergeron - he's scored more than 30 goals 2 times and scored more than 60 points 5 times, 70+ points 2 times, selke winner - no comparison

 

Stastny - getting a bit more comparable, but he has scored 78 points in the NHL and another season with 70+ points as well + he signed his deal as a UFA...big difference

 

Koivu - this is the one I can't quite understand (i.e. why he's paid so much) - his stats are still better than O'Reilly's career year and he's consistently scored 20+ goals and has scored more than 70 points, but he still looks overpaid.

 

So, to me, O'Reilly and his 28 goal and 64 point career year don't seem to explain to me why he should be paid $6.5M.



#1702 kipwinger

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Posted Yesterday, 02:44 PM

I really don't get the people shaking their heads at COL in terms of dealing with O'Reilly.  Yes, he's coming off a career year, but that career year is nothing compared to the consistent years that the players earning the money he wants put up.

 

At first, I didn't understand at all how he could even have been making $6.5M, but then I remembered the offer sheet...that's how he got there to begin with.  So I decided to do a bit of checking.  I had a look at all the other players in the league with cap hits at or greater than $6.5M (he's now looking for $6.75M by the way, but my guess is that is to aim a bit high and let it come down a bit).  This is what I found:

 

26 forwards in the league at that level:

 

16 - have scored 40 or more goals or 100 or more points

4 - have scored 90 or more points

3 - have scored 80 or more points

 

That leaves the following 4 that haven't scored 40 goals or more than 80pts:

 

Toews - he has scored 34 goals and 76 pts, but I don't think we need to use stats to say that you can't compare to Toews

 

Bergeron - he's scored more than 30 goals 2 times and scored more than 60 points 5 times, 70+ points 2 times, selke winner - no comparison

 

Stastny - getting a bit more comparable, but he has scored 78 points in the NHL and another season with 70+ points as well + he signed his deal as a UFA...big difference

 

Koivu - this is the one I can't quite understand (i.e. why he's paid so much) - his stats are still better than O'Reilly's career year and he's consistently scored 20+ goals and has scored more than 70 points, but he still looks overpaid.

 

So, to me, O'Reilly and his 28 goal and 64 point career year don't seem to explain to me why he should be paid $6.5M.

 

To me it's more a matter of Colorado mishandling the situation so badly that they were put in this position in the first place.  This is exactly what happens if you try and lowball good young talent.  As a 21 year old he was putting up 50+ pts. and was one of the better defensive forwards in the league and his team wanted to hold his feet over the fire.  There had to be a better way to satisfy him AND retain his services without completely alienating the kid.  Sadly, Colorado management didn't seem up to the task. 


GMRwings:  "Well, in other civilized countries, 16 years old isn't considered underage.  For instance, I believe the age of consent is 16 in Canada.  There's some US states where it's 16 as well.  

 

Get off the high horse.  Not like she was 10."

 

"Some girls are 17 even though they look 25."

 

 


#1703 toby91_ca

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Posted Yesterday, 03:31 PM

I'll be honest, I have no idea what the negotiating was like a couple years ago, for either side.  At the time, he was coming off his first 3 years in the league in which he put up totals of 3 goals, 13 goals and 18 goals (along with 26 points, 26 points and 55 points).  Personally, I'd be worried about whether the 55 point total was a fluke or not, but he did look to have nice progression.  Historically, most teams in this situation end up paying for future potential and hope to see further development.  What I don't know is what the Avs were offering or what he was asking for at that time.  If the Avs were low balling him, I'd agree with you, not something you want to do, but if they were offering something reasonable and he was asking for something unreasonable, I'd have a different tune.  There is no way he was worth the contract he signed though and now the Avs look bad in trying to bring him back to something that's more realistic.

 

As you say, if they low balled him a couple years ago, that's where the problem comes from.



#1704 kipwinger

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Posted Yesterday, 03:45 PM

I'll be honest, I have no idea what the negotiating was like a couple years ago, for either side.  At the time, he was coming off his first 3 years in the league in which he put up totals of 3 goals, 13 goals and 18 goals (along with 26 points, 26 points and 55 points).  Personally, I'd be worried about whether the 55 point total was a fluke or not, but he did look to have nice progression.  Historically, most teams in this situation end up paying for future potential and hope to see further development.  What I don't know is what the Avs were offering or what he was asking for at that time.  If the Avs were low balling him, I'd agree with you, not something you want to do, but if they were offering something reasonable and he was asking for something unreasonable, I'd have a different tune.  There is no way he was worth the contract he signed though and now the Avs look bad in trying to bring him back to something that's more realistic.

 

As you say, if they low balled him a couple years ago, that's where the problem comes from.

 

This could be total bulls***, but I remember at the time that O'Reilly was looking for the same money as Duchene was going to get (3.5 mil) and Colorado didn't want to give that to him so he wasn't signing.  Hard to blame him if that was the case considering he was probably the better all around player after their first 3 years, but again, that could all be b.s. 


GMRwings:  "Well, in other civilized countries, 16 years old isn't considered underage.  For instance, I believe the age of consent is 16 in Canada.  There's some US states where it's 16 as well.  

 

Get off the high horse.  Not like she was 10."

 

"Some girls are 17 even though they look 25."

 

 


#1705 LeftWinger

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Posted Yesterday, 04:25 PM

There are three D-men out there that for the life of me, I cannot figure out why they aren't signed somewhere yet... Derek Morris, Michael Del Zotto and Ryan Whitney... These guys are very solid guys who could help any of the 30 teams out there...

 

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#1706 frankgrimes

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Posted Yesterday, 04:51 PM

For me it is easy to side with O'Reilly here:

 

The Avs just didn't handle him well, so the relationship went sore soon and now they are willing to do the same thing again ? Is O'Reilly worth 6,5 per right now ? Probably not but he could very well be worth it in the future. Also keep in mind if a player signs an offer-sheet he is basically telling the team: "ok this is going to be my pricetag going forward"...if the team matches => the player and agent will think "good they are fine with it"

 

Nobody could have predicted that stupid "internal cap structure" Duchene is the excemption, yes, he is a better player than Ryan but he really took an underpaid contract guy would have gotten 6,5+ on the open market, same goes for Landeskog. But expecting every player to fall into that cap structure will soon lead to a disaster, Statsny didn't want to do it and neither does O'Reilly which to me is completely understandable, I wouldn't either (1 million over lets say 6 years = 6 million less at the bank..), that's one heck of a beautiful house or 15 over the top cars.

 

Also keep in mind what type of message the Avs are sending out this summer, it's like: if you play for us you won't be allowed to make more than 6 AAV which won't work at all with an ever rising cap ..


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#1707 number9

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Posted Yesterday, 05:19 PM

There are three D-men out there that for the life of me, I cannot figure out why they aren't signed somewhere yet... Derek Morris, Michael Del Zotto and Ryan Whitney... These guys are very solid guys who could help any of the 30 teams out there...

 

#KFQ

 

The guy who couldn't crack the Florida Panthers lineup?

 

Sorry, Quincey > Whitney



#1708 rick zombo

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Posted Yesterday, 05:22 PM

 
The guy who couldn't crack the Florida Panthers lineup?
 
Sorry, Quincey > Whitney


Quincey's probably better than all three of those guys.
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#1709 arag

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Posted Yesterday, 08:11 PM

MDZ=Q. The deference will be that Del Zotto will play for a lot less and has a potential to better than Q.

#1710 Detroit # 1 Fan

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Posted Yesterday, 08:39 PM

Quincey's probably better than all three of those guys.

 

It's a moot point since we have Quincey signed, but I definitely would've taken a flyer on Del Zotto with Babs teaching him. Guy has undeniable offensive talents, just needs some work in the d-zone.


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#1711 kipwinger

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Posted Yesterday, 09:22 PM

 

It's a moot point since we have Quincey signed, but I definitely would've taken a flyer on Del Zotto with Babs teaching him. Guy has undeniable offensive talents, just needs some work in the d-zone.

 

We've already got one of those.  Any more and I'd have a heart attack every night watching them try to protect the puck. 


GMRwings:  "Well, in other civilized countries, 16 years old isn't considered underage.  For instance, I believe the age of consent is 16 in Canada.  There's some US states where it's 16 as well.  

 

Get off the high horse.  Not like she was 10."

 

"Some girls are 17 even though they look 25."

 

 


#1712 PavelValerievichDatsyuk

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Posted Yesterday, 10:06 PM

 

It's a moot point since we have Quincey signed, but I definitely would've taken a flyer on Del Zotto with Babs teaching him. Guy has undeniable offensive talents, just needs some work in the d-zone.

Del Zotto is also 24! Most of our players have barely seen the NHL by that age and he's played 5 years. I think that things point to him turning things around and he could be a steal for someone. Just needs some good guidance.

 

As a side note, I think he's a good example of what can happen to a player when they don't play at least their first year in the AHL.







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